It’s been a big week for federal opinion polling, with Ipsos adding its voice to the regular fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and the weekly Essential Research. The results are sharply polarised, with Ipsos and Morgan coming in weak for the government and Newspoll and Essential being fairly strong. The BludgerTrack aggregate reads this a slight move to Labor, which consolidates a shift in their favour last week. However, there has been no change on the seat projection this time around, with gains for Labor in New South Wales and Victoria counterbalanced by losses in Queensland and Western Australia. Newspoll and Ipsos both provide new numbers for leadership approval, on which both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten record substantial downturns for net approval. However, since this was driven by somewhat peculiar numbers from Newspoll’s swansong, I’d reserve my judgement on that for the time being.
BludgerTrack’s current two-party preferred reading of 52.1% for Labor is a bit lower than the other players in the poll aggregation game just at the moment, with Kevin Bonham and Phantom Trend both having it at 52.4%, and Mark the Ballot being even further out at 52.7%. Our relative weightings for Newspoll and Ipsos may have had something to do with this, but another factor will have been that only BludgerTrack has Essential Research’s weekly samples as separate data points, since Bonham and Phantom Trend have only the published fortnightly rolling average, and Mark the Ballot drops the pollster altogether. You may infer from that that this week’s result was on the strong side for the Coalition.
Also of note:
• Draft boundaries of a redistribution for the Northern Territory parliament have been published, which Antony Green considers in detail. The big change is the effective abolition of the Alice Springs seat of Araluen to make way for the new seat of Spillett in the north of Darwin’s growing satellite city of Palmerston. This has already had political ramifications, as Araluen MP Robyn Lambley cited it as one of her reasons for quitting the Country Liberal Party yesterday to sit as an independent, having intimated that the redistribution has singled her out for special treatment.
• The Lowy Institute has published its annual poll encompassing attitudes towards a wide range of foreign policy issues, which was conducted between February and May from a combined sample of around 6000 respondents by Newspoll and I-view, the latter being a part of Ipsos. Among many other things, respondents were asked to give the government marks out of ten across eight issues, producing a strong 7.1 average for “maintaining a strong alliance with the United States” (if that be deemed a good thing), a fairly healthy 5.9 for “responding to the threat of terrorism”, a perhaps surprisingly soft 4.9 for “handling the arrival of asylum seekers by boat”, another 4.9 for “managing Australia’s economy”, and a low 4.0 for “managing the issue of climate change”.
• The Lowy poll also found concern over climate change at its highest level of 2008, the potential electoral ramifications of which I considered in an article for Crikey yesterday. I had another subscriber-only Crikey piece on Friday which took a careful look at Essential Research data concerning perceptions of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten.
[ Hmmm. Indeed Shorten and co were very confident during this presser. ]
Yup, obviously a sign of a LOTO on his way out the door. 🙂
Lauren Gianoli
9m9 minutes ago
Lauren Gianoli @LaurenGianoli
Parliament rises this week and I reckon there’s a real possibility we won’t be coming back til after an election @billshortenmp to Caucus
Strange that a reporter at Shorten’s doorstop threw up previous quote from Shorten criticizing the fuel indexation. Never heard of such research when Abbott performs one of his regular about faces.
Unfortunately Shorten’s response was rather weak which is disappointing because it was something which they should have prepared for.
[ http://www.smh.com.au/environment/animals/field-of-screams-the-mystery-of-maningridas-25000-tarantulas-20150623-ghv2ip.html ]
Can we send Tony here??
I missed this from a few days ago
[Lauren Gianoli
23h23 hours ago
Lauren Gianoli @LaurenGianoli
Edu Min @cpyne says the govt will introduce a Registered Organisation’s Bill tmrw to give @billshortenmp the oppty to answer Q’s RE the #AWU]
DTT #3689
Good arguement.
Whilst we have been “taught” to dislike Putin, he is smart, planful, organised, consistent, and well liked. His polling is over 80% at home.
Abbott is the reverse.
Wouldn’t it be the spectacle of the millenium to see Abbott line up against Putin in any type of competition……. debate, wrestle, boxing, quiz show …… what a lovely fantasy to mull over …… Abbott with his tail right between his legs, squealing for mercy!
[Strange that a reporter at Shorten’s doorstop threw up previous quote from Shorten criticizing the fuel indexation. Never heard of such research when Abbott performs one of his regular about faces.]
Research? Repeating questions provided by Peta Credlin is not research?
And I thought Shorten’s answer was pretty good. After all, would you support handing back all the extra excise collected (improperly but legally I might add) to the oil companies?
Douglas and Milko @ 3518 last night.
Cheers.
re Gillard and sexism.
As a bloke I was embarrassed by the treatment Gillard got. I thought it was sexist. I’m not a SNAG either, not by a long shot. It wasn’t necessarily overt sexism either. I felt the disrespect shown to Gillard, by Abbott in particular, was something that wouldn’t happen to a man simply because of the inherent fear all bullies have.
Abbott was happy to make any number of snide smartarse comments because he was fairly sure he wouldn’t get punched in the face for them. I still get that impression from Abbott – that he is a bully and a fairly weak one at that. Much is made of his boxing days but he probably wouldn’t last 30 seconds in a real fight.
A very similar thing happened to Joan Kirner iirc, tho that was a long time ago and I have very hazy memories of the early 90s.
Obviously PVO didnt see Shorten’s presser an hour ago or his Insiders interview. Or taken into consideration the crappy kite flying exercise re public school fees yesterday. Which interestingly yesterday I overheard a young mum with an older woman talking about. They also were discussing the pension changes. They were appalled and were saying wtte what else does this govt have in mind.
[Peter van Onselen
2h2 hours ago
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
Bill Shorten is absolutely tanking in this final sitting week before the winter break. You’d think there were draft picks at the end of it!]
[Wouldn’t it be the spectacle of the millenium to see Abbott line up against Putin ]
No contest. Putin would have polonium put in Abbott’s coffee.
psyclaw @ 3705
Abbott is to Putin what Mussolini was to Hitler: a buffoonish wannabe.
[No contest. Putin would have polonium put in Abbott’s coffee.]
Putin would probably manipulate Abbott to put polonium in his own coffee.
I doubt Putin would care who did his dirty work for him.
Ugh.
I’ve just been reading some fairfax articles, and it’s clear that, now that Abbott has failed the tougher tests they set for him on AGW (like actually doing something) they’re going with the weak test that as long as he says something nice and promises to do something in the future, he will get a tick of approval.
[ psyclaw
Posted Tuesday, June 23, 2015 at 11:53 am | Permalink
Whilst we have been “taught” to dislike Putin, he is smart, planful, organised, consistent, and well liked. His polling is over 80% at home ]
There are other versions of what putin *is* –
[ Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia? [Audiobook] by Karen Dawisha
The raging question in the world today is who is the real Vladimir Putin and what are his intentions. Karen Dawisha’s brilliant Putin’s Kleptocracy provides an answer, describing how Putin got to power, the cabal he brought with him, the billions they have looted, and his plan to restore the Greater Russia.
Russian scholar Dawisha describes and exposes the origins of Putin’s kleptocratic regime. She presents extensive new evidence about the Putin circle’s use of public positions for personal gain even before Putin became president in 2000. She documents the establishment of Bank Rossiya, now sanctioned by the US; the rise of the Ozero cooperative, founded by Putin and others who are now subject to visa bans and asset freezes; the links between Putin, Petromed, and “Putin’s Palace” near Sochi; and the role of security officials from Putin’s KGB days in Leningrad and Dresden, many of whom have maintained their contacts with Russian organized crime.
Putin’s Kleptocracy is the result of years of research into the KGB and the various thriving Russian crime syndicates. Dawisha’s sources include Stasi archives; Russian insiders; investigative journalists in the US, Britain, Germany, Finland, France, and Italy; and Western officials who served in Moscow. Russian journalists wrote part of this story when the Russian media was still free. “Many of them died for this story, and their work has largely been scrubbed from the Internet, and even from Russian libraries,” Dawisha says. “But some of that work remains. ]
http://willzuzak.ca/cl/putin/Dawisha2014PutinKleptocracy.pdf
Further to that if you want to really get under a mans skin don’t call him a girl, challenge his sexuality or say he is effete – anything like that. Call him a child or a baby or even better a whinging crybaby whose balls haven’t dropped yet. Racism works well too. This sort of thing won’t work on everyone, but the people it won’t work on don’t usually get (visibly?) upset by insults anyway.
Mongrel dog … I am a mongrel so it doesn’t bother me that much. For the people I grew up with dog had a very specific meaning. A cross between dobber and traitor and so it was a term that could lead to violence. And I think with men there is that thing about language being used to lead to violence or as a form of violence against people who are unable to fight back.
Which brings me back to the vicious language used against Gillard. It contained obvious elements of physical intimidation that we don’t see/hear in reference to men in politics.
[
Did you notice that Joel Fitzgibbon was trying to outdo Ciobo in hysterical overreach?]
Nah I couldn’t cope with it flicked in and out.
[ TPOF
Posted Tuesday, June 23, 2015 at 11:58 am | Permalink
psyclaw @ 3705
Abbott is to Putin what Mussolini was to Hitler: a buffoonish wannabe.
]
….. but there is nothing more dangerous than a resourceful buffoonish wannabe who has power ….
[….. but there is nothing more dangerous than a resourceful buffoonish wannabe who has power ….]
As Italians discovered to their cost.
There must be a reason Fitzgibbon has a shadow cabinet position. Making Barnyard look vaguely competent surely isn’t it, so that must just be an unintended consequence.
I would go so far as to say that they’re practically begging him to give them any reason, however small, to be able to write something nice about him w.r.t. climate change. Why are they so desperate to find reasons to forgive him?
Craig Emerson
Craig Emerson – @DrCraigEmerson
Good decision by Bill Shorten & team to support fuel excise measure.
[There must be a reason Fitzgibbon has a shadow cabinet position. Making Barnyard look vaguely competent surely isn’t it, so that must just be an unintended consequence.]
As Kevin Rudd and, subsequently, Julia Gillard discovered Fitzgibbon is the kind of person you definitely want in your tent pissing out because there is only one place he will piss if he is left out of the tent. And it won’t be into the next tent along.
If you want an example of real ‘shape-shifting’, the way that Abbott announces, then backs off, then re-announces altered policies, then changes his mind again, sits up there with the best.
[Why are they so desperate to find reasons to forgive him?]
Let’s them put into action the skills they’ve been practicing for so long.
Shorten, on the other hand, they just want him to sincerely confess his crimes (as decided by them).
It’s not so much a Labor/Liberal thing, but Fairfax political commentators have clear personal biases towards/against specific politicians. Is the difference in the personal relationships cultivated out of sight of the public?
Clever revenge from Labor to make sure the Greens don’t get a major public transport outcome to their name.
[Clever revenge from Labor to make sure the Greens don’t get a major public transport outcome to their name.]
Sulky pixie politics on show.
[Clever revenge from Labor to make sure the Greens don’t get a major public transport outcome to their name.]
Labor does deal with Government – cave in and grubby political cowardice
Greens do deal with Government – principled achievement putting good policy ahead of politics
I wish I could think in such simplistic memes. Life would be so much easier.
[“Wouldn’t it be the spectacle of the millenium to see Abbott line up against Putin in any type of competition……. debate, wrestle, boxing, quiz show …… what a lovely fantasy to mull over …… Abbott with his tail right between his legs, squealing for mercy!”
How about shirtfronting?
[Why are they so desperate to find reasons to forgive him?]
When every journo in the mainstream media spent years convincing themselves that a hyena would magically transform into a lion once said hyena was made Prime Minister it is incredibly hard to face reality (and science dare I say). So they cling desperately to any sign that the miracle could still occur.
PvO decided to mark both sides down yesterday because the Opposition criticising the government’s proposal to means test schools was simply indicative of the automatic political kneejerk reaction which closes down debate.
This suggest he’s daft for a number of reasons –
— idiotic suggestions aren’t worthy of debate;
— support for public education is a key Labor principle (however blurred it gets at the edges). Thus Labor criticising something which impacts on public education is Labor standing up for its values (but of course, they don’t have any, they just pretend to, apparently).
— if the suggestion is worthy of debate, then the government are the cynics here – at the first sign of opposition, they not only roll themselves in a ball whimpering, but say it wasn’t their own idea and they don’t support it.
TPOF@3620
I would think the environment impact and carbon footprints of cities would dwarf that of rural regions. Yes, the rural regions need some serious development but fixing rural roads would not see a big increase of environmental benefits.
And here is page 1 of 2 Citizenship briefing to Coalition Party Room this morning
http://t.co/KfKrGs1vpo
And page 2
http://t.co/n5p1jJCT1D
[Freed from concerns about the “indignant harrumphing” of her media targets, Gillard is also open in her opinions about different media outlets.
She writes that the Coalition’s “bullying” of the ABC has “paid off” and the broadcaster frequently “pussyfoots around potential criticism of the government”.
In an interview from London, she told Guardian Australia she believed the Coalition’s early fierce attacks on the ABC’s news gathering had changed its approach.
“I think there is such a sensitivity at the ABC to becoming the subject of more hard-hitting criticism from the government that there is a pulling of punches and I do think you can see that on the news … I watch it from time to time and I think there are clear occasions where there is not the sort of hard-hitting analysis that would have happened in different circumstances,” she says.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/23/julia-gillard-exclusive-interview-the-timid-abc-is-rewarding-tony-abbott
[Taking the view that public transport should always be given higher priority over roads, as implied by your comment, is not much better than Captain Chaos’s obsession with roads as the only thing worth investing public money into.]
TPOF
Please don’t offer minimal environmental benefits as sufficient justification for Labor’s conditional about-face on fuel tax indexation.
Improved public transport in urban and interurban areas would provide the biggest bang-for-buck environmental benefits. Next would be improving freight rail. Then improved urban roads. The reduced wear and tear on vehicles on country roads is an order of magnitude less.
If you want to justify Labor’s position because it gives intangible benefits derived from supporting rural areas then say so. Don’t seek to justify it by some, minimal, collateral environmental benefit. Otherwise it has the credibility of :gluten free” bacon.
[At the risk of seeming rather naive and silly, I am moving in the direction of saying that what is important for a leader (in Australia) is an honest face, and body language that gives off the vibe of reliability.]
It has always been important. JFK vs Shifty Nixon in the TV debate was the classic example.
Baird looks honest and open as well.
Shorten looks a bit too worried for my liking and Abbott looks way too unworried.
[3660
lizzie
re: Craig Thomson.]
Fair enough. I have not followed the story closely.
Don’t get me wrong, it could be that Labor always wanted to support this measure but was holding back politically because they didn’t think it would get through.
All I’m saying is that the timing is perfect if Labor wants to undermine any public transport outcomes which would be credited to the Greens.
Raaraa
So we in the country have to put up with cr*p roads and cr*p public transport because it’s not as good for the environment to spend money here?
By your metric, it’s never going to be as cost effective to provide public transport in the country as it is in the city. And it’s never going to be environmentally worthwhile to improve our roads, either.
It’s okay, though. You never have to drive down a dirt road if you don’t want to, so I don’t suppose it’s really an issue worth talking about in the scheme of things.
Steve777
Make it sambo( Russian martial art) .Vlad the Bad won senior championships in that when younger and it looks a pretty crazy sport.
DisplayName@3670
Which they won’t. It is just marketing rhetoric dangled in front of voters in an increasingly desperate vote buying spree.
For the record, I have been publically critical on this site of Labor’s refusal to support the indexation of the fuel exise.
It’s not only a sound economic measure, but it also sends a signal (however small; and I would argue against my own interests and suggest that the exise should be increased substantially) to people to think before they drive.
If you want more people to use public transport, then raising fuel prices will certainly help in doing that.
[And I thought Shorten’s answer was pretty good. After all, would you support handing back all the extra excise collected (improperly but legally I might add) to the oil companies?]
Umm, that was effectively the Greens’ and Labor’s position until the last week or so.
lizzie@3671
+1
Putin is a criminal, well would be if he was ever tried.
In the months leading up to his death Litvinenko published an article accusing Putin of pedophilia and claiming that the reason Putin never rose to real heights in the KGB was because the organisation was aware of this and considered it made him too vulnerable to opposition intelligence operations. They viewed his “sexuality” as a weakness that their enemies could exploit.
Litvenenko also accused Putin of being ultimately responsible for the Chechnian terrorism that happened in 1999 and of the murder of Anna Politkovskaya, one of more than 30 journalists or editors murdered in suspicious circumstances since Putin came to power.
Is Abbott in that league?
http://www.itnews.com.au/News/399933,village-roadshow-boosts-donations-amidst-copyright-crackdown.aspx
Vested interest much ?
Labor to blame.
As a Green who has lived in the country most of my life, I know that there are lots of common sense road improvements which could be made simply with smarter use of funds, especially dirt roads in neglected outer towns in amalgamated council areas. But the focus of new money needs to be on building convenient and fast public transport systems in the city, we are so far behind in that regard and there are so many easy gains to be made if only we applied a bit of effort.
Early election?
Adam Todd @_AdamTodd 5m5 minutes ago
PM tells joint party room: “Everyone needs to be campaigning over the break, we’re not far from an election year.”