BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

A slight gain for Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate for the second week in a row, with four pollsters this week producing highly varied results.

It’s been a big week for federal opinion polling, with Ipsos adding its voice to the regular fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and the weekly Essential Research. The results are sharply polarised, with Ipsos and Morgan coming in weak for the government and Newspoll and Essential being fairly strong. The BludgerTrack aggregate reads this a slight move to Labor, which consolidates a shift in their favour last week. However, there has been no change on the seat projection this time around, with gains for Labor in New South Wales and Victoria counterbalanced by losses in Queensland and Western Australia. Newspoll and Ipsos both provide new numbers for leadership approval, on which both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten record substantial downturns for net approval. However, since this was driven by somewhat peculiar numbers from Newspoll’s swansong, I’d reserve my judgement on that for the time being.

BludgerTrack’s current two-party preferred reading of 52.1% for Labor is a bit lower than the other players in the poll aggregation game just at the moment, with Kevin Bonham and Phantom Trend both having it at 52.4%, and Mark the Ballot being even further out at 52.7%. Our relative weightings for Newspoll and Ipsos may have had something to do with this, but another factor will have been that only BludgerTrack has Essential Research’s weekly samples as separate data points, since Bonham and Phantom Trend have only the published fortnightly rolling average, and Mark the Ballot drops the pollster altogether. You may infer from that that this week’s result was on the strong side for the Coalition.

Also of note:

• Draft boundaries of a redistribution for the Northern Territory parliament have been published, which Antony Green considers in detail. The big change is the effective abolition of the Alice Springs seat of Araluen to make way for the new seat of Spillett in the north of Darwin’s growing satellite city of Palmerston. This has already had political ramifications, as Araluen MP Robyn Lambley cited it as one of her reasons for quitting the Country Liberal Party yesterday to sit as an independent, having intimated that the redistribution has singled her out for special treatment.

• The Lowy Institute has published its annual poll encompassing attitudes towards a wide range of foreign policy issues, which was conducted between February and May from a combined sample of around 6000 respondents by Newspoll and I-view, the latter being a part of Ipsos. Among many other things, respondents were asked to give the government marks out of ten across eight issues, producing a strong 7.1 average for “maintaining a strong alliance with the United States” (if that be deemed a good thing), a fairly healthy 5.9 for “responding to the threat of terrorism”, a perhaps surprisingly soft 4.9 for “handling the arrival of asylum seekers by boat”, another 4.9 for “managing Australia’s economy”, and a low 4.0 for “managing the issue of climate change”.

• The Lowy poll also found concern over climate change at its highest level of 2008, the potential electoral ramifications of which I considered in an article for Crikey yesterday. I had another subscriber-only Crikey piece on Friday which took a careful look at Essential Research data concerning perceptions of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,875 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 74 of 78
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  1. Just Me

    [ Pardon me if I suspect it was part of his propaganda plan all along. Make outrageous ambit claims, then back off a little, throw a old dried out wishbone to his critics, and let his tame media slugs claim that demonstrates what a reasonable flexible fellow he really is. ]

    Just more pre-election grooming of the electorate.

  2. DTT

    [I think if you went up to a couple in a bar and called the woman a bitch and the guy a mongrel dog, it is the second that will get you a bloody nose.]

    You are right. But that’s not because the guy is more offended; it’s because the guy would see that as an invitation to fight. A woman who said that to a guy would be less likely to get a bloody nose than another guy because it would not be seen in the same way by the recipient of the insult.

  5. A reminder of why we regard Howard as a better PM than Abbott is.

    @Huntzie: Obama praises Australian gun laws in wake of Charleston shooting http://t.co/w21GlzLRIj

    Now if Abbott embraced the carbon price and ETS he would be showing the same spend political capital to do the right thing in the nations interest.

  6. DTT

    Further to my 3651

    I think if a guy went up to a couple in a bar and called the woman a bitch and did not call the man anything he would still get a bloody nose. In fact more likely to get a bloody nose than if he called the woman nothing and a man a mongrel cur.

    Because what is being insulted there is the ability of the man to protect the woman who is temporarily or permanently under his ‘protection’. Such are the differences in drivers between male and female responses to antagonistic behaviour.

  7. DTT

    [Men I think, the “precious little darlings” are much more upset by abusive language than are women, who can usually give back as good as they get – like “fishwives” in fact.]

    Well, I must be different from all the women you know.

  8. [At last Kathy Jackson will have to front up. She will have to appear in court tomorrow after the last of her ridiculous attempts to avoid it was kicked right out.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jun/22/kathy-jackson-loses-attempt-to-stop-hsu-civil-case-against-her ]

    Good. Long past time some serious scrutiny was applied to her role in all this.

    I have little time for Craig Thomson, but he could be excused for indulging in a little Schadenfreude right now.

  10. I think its appalling that QandA is apologising for allowing that radical muslim guy on to ask a question. To me it was a real voice of disaffected youth telling it like it is. Of course it was unpleasant. He is a radical. So are two of the panellists that were on as well. They too have done death threats against a sitting PM.

  11. Just Me

    I do feel a little sorry for Craig Thomson. From what I have read, the culture of the HSU was that rules were pretty slack and pleny of scope was there to spend on personal entertainment. We didn’t find that out until later, when Kathy Jackson’s ‘permissible’ expenses were revealed.

    Thomson’s original story was that he had tried to clamp down on Jackson and she reacted by exposing all his (comparatively small) ‘rorts’. Because she had the backing of some pretty hefty supporters, including Abbott, and because it was a chance to bring Gillard down, everyone piled in against him, with absurdly high estimates of his supposed sins.

    One reputation and career lost forever, yet Jackson still surfing the spectators.

  13. Was listening to 774ABC earlier re international segment. Damien Kingsbury from Deakin (i think) has been speaking to those from Europe etc and apparently they see Abbott as a mini Putin!!

  14. lizzie

    [ Because she had the backing of some pretty hefty supporters, including Abbott … ]

    I expect Jackson is about to find out exactly what it means to have Abbott for a “friend”.

  15. guytaur @ 3659

    [I think its appalling that QandA is apologising for allowing that radical muslim guy on to ask a question. To me it was a real voice of disaffected youth telling it like it is. Of course it was unpleasant. He is a radical. So are two of the panellists that were on as well. They too have done death threats against a sitting PM.]

    Exactly what I was thinking about his voice. It’s the ABC being cowed into a craven apology. Clearly locking this guy up for two years for something he allegedly said did nothing to quell his attitude. And yet we want to double down on the same failed process. Like the drug trade. The more we we clamp down on the illicit drug trade the more illicit drugs flood the market. And without questioning whether the current response adds to the problem rather than solve it, we simply intensify the current response.

  17. zoomster

    [ Of course it’s a matter for the states how they fund education and health once the feds cut off funding… ]

    But at least Sloppy Joe will finally get his surplus!

  18. “@political_alert: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will hold a doorstop interview at 11am to announce Labor’s plan for regional roads funding #auspol”

  19. TPOF @ 3640: You say that no genuinely nice person has ever become PM. Well, I know such judgements are subjective, but as it happens I knew a few people, now dead, who knew Messrs Lyons, Curtin and Chifley well, and had nothing but praise for their character and personal decency. This comes through very clearly in L F Crisp’s biography of Chifley.

  21. Just Me @ 3644
    They can sign up to all the targets they like but it’s completely meaningless unless they match their actions to their words.

  23. gt

    [I think its appalling that QandA is apologising]

    I don’t watch but have seen the clip.

    Who exactly is the Tony Jones Show apoligising to?

  24. Libs accusing the ABC of a “form of sedition”.

    [
    A federal government MP has accused the ABC of engaging in a “form of sedition” by allowing an Australian man convicted of threatening Commonwealth officials to appear on Q&A where he clashed with a junior Abbott government minister.

    Zaky Mallah was charged under counter-terror laws introduced by the former Howard government but acquitted. He was, however, jailed in 2005 for threatening to kill ASIO and Department of Foreign Affairs staff, and in 2012 travelled to Syria during the Arab spring uprisings.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/form-of-sedition-coalition-mps-slam-abc-for-allowing-former-terrorism-suspect-on-qa-20150623-ghv0dj

  25. [I think its appalling that QandA is apologising for allowing that radical muslim guy on to ask a question. To me it was a real voice of disaffected youth telling it like it is. Of course it was unpleasant. He is a radical. So are two of the panellists that were on as well. They too have done death threats against a sitting PM.]

    I agree that he should be heard, and while I disagree that disaffected Muslims should become radicalised (they shouldn’t, but it takes courage and intelligence to resist and many clearly lack both) but the point that we should be taking from it is the extra ordinaryily nasty assault on Muslims by this government has and will continue to push weak and foolish people into the arms of terrorists. Really disappointed that a member of the government is willing trash Australia’s, even stupid ones, when they have not been convicted. He should be forced to resign that was the most disgusting thing I’ve seen.

  26. Of course, I have a conflict of interest – I use country roads every day, and haven’t used public transport (in Australia) for several years.

  27. Re: Daniel Andrews

    The often line here and elsewhere was that he wasn’t doing enough although in all fairness he didn’t have too, he only needed to be credible and solid, he ticked both those boxes and has continued to do so.

    The other thing which Andrews does really well is stays on message, he keeps it simple, it isn’t overly class based and its clear & concise.

  32. gt

    [ However why is explained well by the article Sir Mad posted]

    How terrible that an MP should have to declare his position on anything.

  33. [Just more pre-election grooming of the electorate.]

    Early election season.

    Difficult to see Abbott lasting the full term if his polling doesn’t improve substantially, and real soon.

  34. Interesting to hear the Kathy Jackson lawsuit is continuing. News Ltd continue to support her as an innocent “whistleblower” with The Australian running another story this morning in which she “attacks” Shorten.

    When you’re forced to use attack dogs with that level of credibility, where can you turn next? Will they have “well-known and loved entertainer Rolf Harris” claiming Shorten is a ratbag?

  35. [I should add to my 3618 that repairing and improving country roads is actually of environmental benefit because there is less wear and tear on vehicles. Public transport improvement, while critical in and between urban areas, cannot be justified in most rural areas because the number of users will never be there even if all private vehicles were banned.]
    The environmental benefits of improving country roads would be minor compared with public transport improvements. An extra train carrying 600 people would take say 400 cars off the road and reduce that amount of fuel and wear and tear on vehicles.

  36. [Victoria Collins
    2h2 hours ago
    Victoria Collins ‏@HillbillySkill
    If the Abbott Govt don’t want to support Public schools or Public hospitals why do they then support Private Health & Schools!?! #Auspol]

  40. Victoria

    Anyone who compares Abbott to Putin is obviously an ignorant idiot and their opinion is useless.

    Abbott is an ideological, gaffe prone idiot with the strategic sense of a gnat. Yes he has totalitarian, imperialist and frankly racist positions but he has no ability to either lead or act as a statesman. He is not well respected, even by his own side.

    Putin by contrast is a clever strategic tactician, and remains wildly popular on his own turf. Yes he also shares a totalitarian mind set with Abbott, but that is as far as it goes. Other than them both liking to show off their pecs there is no similarity at all.

    Putin was a KGB operative. I do not think ASIS or ASIO would have recruited a batshit crazy, loose canon like Abbott.

  41. DTT

    [Putin was a KGB operative. I do not think ASIS or ASIO would have recruited a batshit crazy, loose canon like Abbott.]

    It would be ‘Get Smart’ all over again, with knobs on!

  42. [ We know what the govt agenda is. They want the states to be responsible for the increase of the GST. ]

    From Viv upthread a ways.

    Yup, this is what seems to be shaping as, actually, their main game this term. I suspect that they want to run with this as something like “bold reform” credentials into the next election?

    They have certainly done sweet FA else in terms of real economic management for their term so far. And, shifting the tax burden more from business to consumers is something that the IPA who seems to write policy for them would be right up for.

    Its a high risk tactic for them though, as it taps right back into fairness as an argument when there are other revenue measures that can be framed as more fair that they could pursue BEFORE going the GST.

  43. pedant @ 3668

    The PMs you refer to were certainly decent people, but they certainly were not nice. All of them had history of being politically tough, verging on brutal, when the politics required it and to meet political challenges of equal ferocity. But they still drew moral lines they would not cross – no matter what the political advantage. The only PM I have ever seen who has never drawn a line that he would never cross is the current one. He would cross every line in pursuit of a vote and political advantage.

  44. Wow a sensible question at the end.

    [Have we gone too far with concentrating on law by not concentrating on deradicalisation?]

  47. guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, June 23, 2015 at 11:31 am | PERMALINK
    Wow a sensible question at the end.

    Have we gone too far with concentrating on law by not concentrating on deradicalisation?

    Practically impossible to de-radicalise when you have an almost total concentration of media outlets running an agenda of fear and division in support of their own financial survival.

  48. What a shite week for the CFEMU in the High Court last week. First a loss to Boral

    Secondly, John Setka lost his application to challenge lower courts’ rulings in Victoria throwing out his application to dismiss some of Abbott’s defence to Setka’s troubled defamation proceedings.

    Here is a sharp rebuke from the Chief Justice of the High Court about the unworthiness of the application:

    [How much practical difference is this going to make to the conduct of the trial, if we ever get to one in this case?]

    The auditor’s report for the CFEMU this year would be a troubling read.

  49. [The environmental benefits of improving country roads would be minor compared with public transport improvements. An extra train carrying 600 people would take say 400 cars off the road and reduce that amount of fuel and wear and tear on vehicles.]

    Zoomster and other rural dwellers here can correct me, but the problem is that such trains are only viable (indeed highly positive) in large urban areas and between urban areas. They are not feasible in sparsely populated rural areas. I agree that there is a bigger bang for your buck by investing in urban public transport, but there are more intangible benefits in supporting rural dwellers that make it very important to ensure that rural transport infrastructure (which realistically can only be roads) attracts sufficient investment.

    Taking the view that public transport should always be given higher priority over roads, as implied by your comment, is not much better than Captain Chaos’s obsession with roads as the only thing worth investing public money into.

  50. [I expect Jackson is about to find out exactly what it means to have Abbott for a “friend”.]

    Perhaps she should seek out James Ashby. Soulmates with shared experience.

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