It’s been a big week for federal opinion polling, with Ipsos adding its voice to the regular fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and the weekly Essential Research. The results are sharply polarised, with Ipsos and Morgan coming in weak for the government and Newspoll and Essential being fairly strong. The BludgerTrack aggregate reads this a slight move to Labor, which consolidates a shift in their favour last week. However, there has been no change on the seat projection this time around, with gains for Labor in New South Wales and Victoria counterbalanced by losses in Queensland and Western Australia. Newspoll and Ipsos both provide new numbers for leadership approval, on which both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten record substantial downturns for net approval. However, since this was driven by somewhat peculiar numbers from Newspoll’s swansong, I’d reserve my judgement on that for the time being.
BludgerTrack’s current two-party preferred reading of 52.1% for Labor is a bit lower than the other players in the poll aggregation game just at the moment, with Kevin Bonham and Phantom Trend both having it at 52.4%, and Mark the Ballot being even further out at 52.7%. Our relative weightings for Newspoll and Ipsos may have had something to do with this, but another factor will have been that only BludgerTrack has Essential Research’s weekly samples as separate data points, since Bonham and Phantom Trend have only the published fortnightly rolling average, and Mark the Ballot drops the pollster altogether. You may infer from that that this week’s result was on the strong side for the Coalition.
Also of note:
• Draft boundaries of a redistribution for the Northern Territory parliament have been published, which Antony Green considers in detail. The big change is the effective abolition of the Alice Springs seat of Araluen to make way for the new seat of Spillett in the north of Darwin’s growing satellite city of Palmerston. This has already had political ramifications, as Araluen MP Robyn Lambley cited it as one of her reasons for quitting the Country Liberal Party yesterday to sit as an independent, having intimated that the redistribution has singled her out for special treatment.
• The Lowy Institute has published its annual poll encompassing attitudes towards a wide range of foreign policy issues, which was conducted between February and May from a combined sample of around 6000 respondents by Newspoll and I-view, the latter being a part of Ipsos. Among many other things, respondents were asked to give the government marks out of ten across eight issues, producing a strong 7.1 average for “maintaining a strong alliance with the United States” (if that be deemed a good thing), a fairly healthy 5.9 for “responding to the threat of terrorism”, a perhaps surprisingly soft 4.9 for “handling the arrival of asylum seekers by boat”, another 4.9 for “managing Australia’s economy”, and a low 4.0 for “managing the issue of climate change”.
• The Lowy poll also found concern over climate change at its highest level of 2008, the potential electoral ramifications of which I considered in an article for Crikey yesterday. I had another subscriber-only Crikey piece on Friday which took a careful look at Essential Research data concerning perceptions of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten.
[Captain Chaos and his indulgent political mum might not be smirking so much over TKS when the public is reminded of this:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julia-gillard-on-the-moment-that-should-have-killed-tony-abbotts-career-20150622-ghug63.html ]
To the contrary, he’ll wear it as a badge of honour, which is pretty much what he did at the time. Even his ‘apology’ afterwards was mealy mouthed and disingenuous.
I think Abbott’s and the Liberal party’s attitude more generally towards women says it all about why women’s representation in their party is low.
fess @ 3551
At one level you are right. But he and Credlin and the strategists know that it is the kind of behaviour that is unbecoming of any PM. People forget these things happen – especially in the heat of the politics of the day. Good to see them reminded again.
The ABC was excellent last night.
4Corners, Q&A and Lateline, all highly recommended.
Morning all
Thanks BK for today’s offerings.
Lizzie
I missed all the programs, but will catch up on iview
Ciobo and Morris were held back pretty well, and Fitzgibbon proved that he’s not an eloquent speaker. But on the whole pollies took a back seat. Good.
Tried streaming QandA but there was no sound
Great to see that the ALP has teamed up with the Libs to help foreign multinationals (who pay no tax in this country) and Foxtel (ditto, I assume) screw Australian internet consumers. Green vote looking very attractive at the next election.
Bill Shorten is coming out with some good stuff on infrastructure at a CEDA conference. It’s on the Sky Business channel.
Ah, ModLib verballing me again. Forgiveable because it’s due to her inability to understand simple posts in context.
I did not say that ModLib’s misinterpretation of the Malaysian finding showed she was not very smart.
What I did do was remind other posters of her inability to understand complex issues, so that they would explain them more simply for her.
The Guardian has a Lenore Taylor interview with Julia Gillard and updated excerpts from her memoirs from 12 noon today.
They put in a paragraph to promote it which I think bears repeating here (nothing to do with Rudd btw):
[Being beyond politics, I am able to examine the role of the media without worrying about the indignant harrumphing that emanates from many journalists and commentators when you do so. For a profession that holds dear both the ability to vivisect politicians in prose and the expectation that these carved-up subjects will not complain, the media is horribly thin-skinned and vengeance-seeking when on the receiving end of criticism.]
Whatever opinions abound here about FPMJG, I think the comment will resonate with so many of us who despair over the performance of the mainstream media in Australia.
zoomster @ 3559
It’s a wilful refusal to think through anything that contradicts their worldview. By no means the sole province of the right, it nevertheless finds a natural home there.
The Victorian newspoll is a lesson for Federal labor.
Small target strategy is seen as weak.
Be bold. Be strong. Display conviction.
The Greens Party, while lacking in a number of areas, is indeed looking more attractive than the Coalition or ALP in terms of preference at this stage.
The conduct of our media during Gillard’s period as PM was embarrassing and shameful. Will it display the same immaturity and frat house style commentary when we have our first indigenous PM? Making snide jibes at his or her cultural beliefs or ancestry?
Hopefully the time the next woman PM comes along the media will have had a good hard look at itself, although I won’t hold my breath.
TPOF
Seems like the only way to teach the media a lesson is to pay back in kind.
I am serious. Labor and the unions have the money and resources to start a scandal sheet. Only instead of politicians (well not Labor ones) target the media. Serve back like with like.
If a journo makes fun of a woman’s dress etc, then make a giggle of their own (if female) and partners if not. If they wait outside someone’s house for a picture, return in kind and snap piccies of the journo going to get the paper in PJs.
Rupert and Wendy’s love life (or lack thereof) need to figure.
BUT make it clear, that joournos who do not cross the line will NEVER be targeted.
Rex Douglas
much as I love Daniel Andrews (having known him as a pup) I didn’t see anyone applauding him for being bold and strong prior to the election.
As we (because it isn’t just me) frequently point out here, a Premier or Prime Minister has opportunities to portray themselves as bold, strong and having conviction that Opposition Leaders don’t.
Opposition Leaders can always be portrayed as whingy, negative and carping because being so is part of their job description.
Which is why yesterday’s relatively unpopular Opposition Leader very quickly becomes today’s adored PM or Premier.
As for small target, I would have thought that a commitment to carbon pricing, just for starters, was big enough to be getting on with.
Rex D
[Be bold. Be strong. Display conviction.]
Although you may not have noticed that the media are attacking Andrews as weak and changeable.
lizzie @3567:
And, at the same time, as bad for business over the E-W crap.
Typical media.
I don’t think the Labor opposition has been a small target so much as the govt gaffes and all round incompetence has made the coalition a much bigger one.
[Whatever opinions abound here about FPMJG, I think the comment will resonate with so many of us who despair over the performance of the mainstream media in Australia.]
It is a thoroughly fair description of the media. Every time some lazy intellectually bankrupt journo does a pox on both your houses story it shows the biggest pox is on the media house.
I don’t know what the Liberals are doing, as I don’t seem to have any on my fb list but part of Labor’s strategy is providing info on fb which is very easy to share.
I run a couple of fb pages which are purely political (I like to keep my personal fb page just that). Most of the time, I’ve been posting news stories there.
Over the last few months, however, I’m having professionally prepared posts appear in my personal stream, which I then share on my other fb pages.
These Labor posts are clearly branded, accompanied by good photos, have a succinct message up front, with further details if you want to read on.
I think I’m now sharing in the order of half a dozen of these a day.
Given fb is now a major source of news for a reasonable proportion of the population, then this might explain (in part) the mystery the msm is grappling with.
z,
Andrews has also confronted and apparently overcome the incessant negativity of the MSM since he took office. The HS campaign for the EW tunnel was blatantly partisan and only last weekend the Fairfax crew were hyper criticising alleged failures of Andrews style and substance.
As for the Greens, they are always in the position of being able to propose more since they will never be accountable for their decisions.
The fact that they voted against a CPRS, an increase to the Government credit card limit, opposed the increase in tax on petrol and have just assisted the Tories cut the aged pension show they are nothing more than political opportunists.
[much as I love Daniel Andrews (having known him as a pup) I didn’t see anyone applauding him for being bold and strong prior to the election.]
I didn’t notice much that was ‘bold’ before the election either, although I put that down to not living in Victoria. And, if anything, Andrews has not made the political capital out of the EW link disaster that he might have. Certainly not what an accomplished spiv like Abbott would have done.
lizzie #3567
The public aren’t buying it, obviously.
On the other hand, Bill Shorten is struggling to be more favourable than the crazed Tony Abbott.
The New Daily @TheNewDailyAu · 40m40 minutes ago
.@PaulBongiorno explains how Tony Abbott is covering his retreat on tough terror measures: http://bit.ly/1GCg2oB
To be fair, Andrews did say the EW tunnel would not be proceeding before the election.
I’d say that was a fairly bold announcement.
And I think 58-42 is a sign of some political capital
Confessions
I honestly believe that you and many others have exaggerated the extent of the media attack on Gillard at least in its sexist elements. Anna Bligh was not attacked because she was a woman, so it is hard to see what was specifically sexist, at least in Qld papers.
I think all politicians are assessed by a range of physical characteristics, mannerisms and perceptions. If Julia was Julian, I think he would still have been shown with red hair and a sharp nose. OK he would not have had a big rear, so some other feature, mouth, ears, fat tummy or whatever would have been the order of the day.
Much as you and others hate to admit it, Gillard was pilloried by the media, because fundamentally the public just did not like her. While of course there is a sexist element of people who hate any women in power, but I think this is heavily offset by people who support her BECAUSE she is a woman.
I do not want to rehash RGR wars, but I do think that those who want to find easy quick answers for the problems of Gillard are dangerous, because they miss the other more important issues that have landed us in a situation where we have a right wing government that is rapidly closing the gap between being a Tory government and one which is quite totalitarian, dare I say fascist.
The public after the first two weeks, turned off Gillard. The important issue for Labor is to ask why. It is not a simple “because she was a woman” or even the nasty media. I am not saying that these had no impact at all, but to overemphasise them risks overlooking more important factors.
It is these OTHER factors which will make or break Labor in the next 6-12 months.
[
And I think 58-42 is a sign of some political capital
]
Yeah, I was just thinking the same. So much for those “Just Build it!” stickers I see on the odd car when I’m on my daily commute.
While Andrews has his faults, it’s clear the public see him as a legitimate leader.
The same cannot be said for Shorten or the crazed Abbott.
I guess the mobile billboards Abbott unveiled with Vic Opp Leader, Matthew Guy recently re EW link, went down a treat with Victorian voters
[I honestly believe that you and many others have exaggerated the extent of the media attack on Gillard]
I know you think that, but I can assure you I’m not exaggerating. I know this because plenty of other people (mostly, but not exclusively, women) feel the same way I do, and because the media treatment was so bad a former press gallery journalist was moved to write a book documenting it.
Just because Bligh or other women leaders may have been treated differently does not mean the media treatment of our first woman PM was abysmal.
Is there someone who can explain exactly what the internet bills passed by the Senate last night mean in actual real world terms? All I’ve been able to find are nerd-tech type commentary which sails over my head, ‘Labor bad!!’ comments here, or worst case scenario commentary in today’s media which isn’t actually prefaced in the real world.
Abbott and co. Why dont you and your fellow travellers, do us all a favour andf. Off into the sunset
[The states would lose up to $18 billion a year in Commonwealth support for public hospitals and be left to fund and operate the system by themselves, under one option prepared by the Prime Minister’s department as part of the Federation reform process.
The leaked proposal brings into play the prospect of the states having to raise the GST or find another funding source by accepting that the “ongoing financial durability of this option is likely to be challenged” unless the states could fid the money by cutting back on hospital admissions and addressing shortfalls in primary care]
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/leaked-proposal-suggests-states-may-lose-18b-healthcare-funding-20150622-ghu001?stb=fb
At the risk of seeming rather naive and silly, I am moving in the direction of saying that what is important for a leader (in Australia) is an honest face, and body language that gives off the vibe of reliability.
Both Anastasia P and Andrews seem to have this feature, which is similar to BUT NOT the SAME as a small target strategy. Bill Shorten actually does have a very honest and boyish face, which should help him, but his baggage may offset it.
Oddly enough (and once I would have laughed it off and said too dull) I now think that if for some reason Shorten resigned, (NO I AM NOT SUGGESTING IT) Jenny Macklin would be the best leader. Sometimes it is horses for courses and against Abbott she would be the best choice. Against Turnbull it would HAVE to be Dreyfus. Against Morrison I think we might need to conjure up Buffy the Vampire slayer.
First the schools – now the hospitals:
[THE prime minister’s department is reportedly contemplating leaving public hospital funding up to the states, according to a leaked discussion paper.
STATES would lose $18 billion a year, which opened up the possibility of an increase to the goods and services tax, The Australian Financial Review reports on Tuesday.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/federal-exit-on-health-funding-floated/story-e6frfku9-1227410369953
dtt
Jenny Macklin? Surely you jest
From my understanding it means movie/tv/music rights owners such as Sony, Fox, Netflix, etc. can apply to the Australian federal court to have sharing sites like Kickass or Pirate Bay blocked by Australian ISP’s such as telstra and optus.
Hmmm more leaks, this time about health?
fess
We know what the govt agenda is. They want the states to be responsible for the increase of the GST. Obviously wishing to dismiss the cause and effect of such a move. They really are an embarrassment
[I do not want to rehash RGR wars]
If you didn’t want to rehash the RGR wars you would not have posted what you did. I’m not saying anything about KR here although I have plenty to say.
In this instance I suggest that you do as I do – or else go over to TKS.
And my comment above re TKS was totally about the character of Abbott in appearing below those signs unapologetically (or, rather, noting later that he did not know they were there but still not apologising), not a defence of Gillard.
Rex D:
Yes, I’ve been able to glean that much from the news reporting. But what I’m really asking is so what?
Phillip Coorey @PhillipCoorey 4m4 minutes ago Sydney, New South Wales
Rather juicy story about to break on http://AFR.com , stay tuned
I don’t think the biggest issue Julia had with sexism was either better or worse in the media – but the excessive negative reaction to HOW she got the job was very sexist. If it had been a bloke there would still have been some reaction but not nearly what we actually witnessed.
Wonder if the juicy story has anything to do with what Boerwar mentioned a while ago
victoria:
These are massive changes in federal-state arrangements that would surely have to be worrying voters?
The govt may not be planning anything this term, but I think people are entitled to ask what they’ve got planned for a second term.
[From my understanding it means movie/tv/music rights owners such as Sony, Fox, Netflix, etc. can apply to the Australian federal court to have sharing sites like Kickass or Pirate Bay blocked by Australian ISP’s such as telstra and optus.]
Thanks for that we know where you got your info.
I gather this is the juicy story
[
Labor to back petrol tax hike
Labor has moved to gazump the Greens and has offered to cut a deal with the government to reintroduce the twice-yearly increase of petrol excise.
Its only condition is that $1.1 billion be dedicated to fixing and building regional roads in the next two years.
]
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/labor-to-back-petrol-tax-hike-20150622-ghv04w?stb=twt
lizzie
Such sharing sites contain lots of material that isn’t copyrighted and completely legal to share.
Sir Mad
That is definitely not a juicy story. Yawn!!