It’s been a big week for federal opinion polling, with Ipsos adding its voice to the regular fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and the weekly Essential Research. The results are sharply polarised, with Ipsos and Morgan coming in weak for the government and Newspoll and Essential being fairly strong. The BludgerTrack aggregate reads this a slight move to Labor, which consolidates a shift in their favour last week. However, there has been no change on the seat projection this time around, with gains for Labor in New South Wales and Victoria counterbalanced by losses in Queensland and Western Australia. Newspoll and Ipsos both provide new numbers for leadership approval, on which both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten record substantial downturns for net approval. However, since this was driven by somewhat peculiar numbers from Newspoll’s swansong, I’d reserve my judgement on that for the time being.
BludgerTrack’s current two-party preferred reading of 52.1% for Labor is a bit lower than the other players in the poll aggregation game just at the moment, with Kevin Bonham and Phantom Trend both having it at 52.4%, and Mark the Ballot being even further out at 52.7%. Our relative weightings for Newspoll and Ipsos may have had something to do with this, but another factor will have been that only BludgerTrack has Essential Research’s weekly samples as separate data points, since Bonham and Phantom Trend have only the published fortnightly rolling average, and Mark the Ballot drops the pollster altogether. You may infer from that that this week’s result was on the strong side for the Coalition.
Also of note:
• Draft boundaries of a redistribution for the Northern Territory parliament have been published, which Antony Green considers in detail. The big change is the effective abolition of the Alice Springs seat of Araluen to make way for the new seat of Spillett in the north of Darwin’s growing satellite city of Palmerston. This has already had political ramifications, as Araluen MP Robyn Lambley cited it as one of her reasons for quitting the Country Liberal Party yesterday to sit as an independent, having intimated that the redistribution has singled her out for special treatment.
• The Lowy Institute has published its annual poll encompassing attitudes towards a wide range of foreign policy issues, which was conducted between February and May from a combined sample of around 6000 respondents by Newspoll and I-view, the latter being a part of Ipsos. Among many other things, respondents were asked to give the government marks out of ten across eight issues, producing a strong 7.1 average for “maintaining a strong alliance with the United States” (if that be deemed a good thing), a fairly healthy 5.9 for “responding to the threat of terrorism”, a perhaps surprisingly soft 4.9 for “handling the arrival of asylum seekers by boat”, another 4.9 for “managing Australia’s economy”, and a low 4.0 for “managing the issue of climate change”.
• The Lowy poll also found concern over climate change at its highest level of 2008, the potential electoral ramifications of which I considered in an article for Crikey yesterday. I had another subscriber-only Crikey piece on Friday which took a careful look at Essential Research data concerning perceptions of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten.
Trog
😀
Actually, I’ve been a bit gobsmacked lately at the expensive clothes and, especially, the jewellery, worn by our Foreign minister. Don’t get me wrong, she looks fantastic 95% of the time.
Bernard Keane @BernardKeane
So Shorten & the AWU are shonky for doing the sort of workplace flexibility deal employers & the Coalition are always demanding unions make?
markjs
BKeane hits nail on head
Heard the excerpt from Julia Gillard’s interview by BBC’s ‘Hard Talk’. She gave straight answers to questions relating to her time in office and referred questions relating to current issues to the current Labor Opposition, as should be. Turnback didn’t happen on her’s or Kevin’s watch, so there were no payments for turnbacks. On the other hand, there were activities to disrupt people-smuggler operations.
Unless anyone has information to the contrary, that’s the end of the issue as far as the previous Government is concerned.
P.S. ‘Hard Talk’ is one program that Abbott won’t be going on. Were he to do so, he would answer all questions with a 2013 election slogan and/or a Liberal talking point, regardless of what was actually asked.
To Bill Shorten. Courage, mon brave.
lizzie:
LOL. That reminds me of that journalist who used to spend her QT tweeting what MPs were wearing. I still can’t believe she got paid to do that.
victoria@49
Fairfax probably want that – then the story ‘runs’ on and on.
When is the RC appearance ?
Brett Walker now on ABC 702 with Linda Mottram.
He has just called the government’s insistence that he recommended stripping of citizenship without Court proceedings “juvenile”, and that interpretation “spurious”.
He has also revealed that his recommendation was made in March 2014, and says that the atmosphere of “urgency” in this matter is phoney.
He says it is “absurd” that ministers are making out they have just discovered this faux power to bypass the courts.
He is quite angry about this actually (in that quiet, “Senior Counsel” sort of way). Says it is “ridiculous” to continue misquoting him as he has made it clear to them exactly what he meant. They are quoting a document that, as far as the point they are making, “does not exist”.
Somewhat of a bombshell.
lizzie
If I were Shorten and confident of the agreements made during his tenure at the union, he should make them all available today for the perusal of those journos who want him to step down
lizzie
[Actually, I’ve been a bit gobsmacked lately at the expensive clothes and, especially, the jewellery, worn by our Foreign minister. Don’t get me wrong, she looks fantastic 95% of the time.]
It’s just the born-to-rule entitlement smirk that puts me off.
Like Abbott.
The ‘born-to-rule entitlement smirk’ is not a feature of those who are particularly strong in the brains trust.
Dave
Not for a few months. No doubt fairfax wants the story to gather momentum in the meantime.
BB
Only a bombshell if it related to Labor
Not sure if this is the correct Award but anyway;
Cleaning Services Award 2010
All early morning, afternoon and non-permanent night shiftworkers will be paid an additional 15% of the ordinary hourly rate for the appropriate classification for all shiftwork. For the purposes of this clause shiftwork will mean any shift Monday to Friday starting before 6.00 am or any shift finishing after 6.00 pm. Employees will receive the shiftwork hourly rates of pay for the entire shift (other than overtime).
Saturday work
For all hours worked between midnight Friday and midnight Saturday an employee will be paid time and one half of the ordinary hourly rate for their classification.
(b) Sunday work
For all hours worked between midnight Saturday and midnight Sunday, an employee will be paid double the ordinary hourly rate for their classification
Clearly under this Award penalty rates are paid.
This is the same mob that *STILL* have their hands out for more support and loans –
[ Greek Debt Committee Just Declared All Debt To The Troika “Illegal, Illegitimate, And Odious”
…Moments ago, this committee released its preliminary findings, and here is the conclusion from the full report presented below:
All the evidence we present in this report shows that Greece not only does not have the ability to pay this debt, but also should not pay this debt first and foremost because the debt emerging from the Troika’s arrangements is a direct infringement on the fundamental human rights of the residents of Greece.
Hence, we came to the conclusion that Greece should not pay this debt because it is illegal, illegitimate, and odious.]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-17/greek-debt-committee-just-declared-all-debt-illegal-illegitimate-and-odious
Btw today Centrelink, Medicare staff are going on strike due to govt cutbacks on work and conditions. Apparently 17000 public servants have been culled since govt took office
Good morning all. The SMH editorial today is a bewildering mystery. You’d have thought they’d at least have waited until they had run all their investigative articles.
For a paper to call for a leader of a political party to step down should only happen in the most extreme circumstances. It seems especially odd for a paper to call for an opposition leader to step down.
Unless…
(And this is just total supposition.)
Unless Shorten IS on the verge of resigning, which would make the rest of the SMH’s investigative articles redundant. So the SMH wants to claim credit and salvage something for itself.
Ta Vic – yep it looks like it.
[The shadow attorney-general, Mark Dreyfus, has done the early shift on AM. He’s told the host Michael Brissenden Labor supports calm and clear action to protect Australia’s national security but there’s been little calm or clear action on citizenship, there has only been endless talk, no action, and division. He’s added Labor will work constructively with the government in this space but that doesn’t mean we’ll support every single measure.]
Hartcher says the govt is chaotic. Cormann says they’re following due process. Who to believe. Sigh :/
meher baba
There is always a possibility of anything I suppose
Trog
I thought Margie looked elegant. Beside her, Tony looked like a boxer who’d dropped in unexpectedly for a beer.
Fess
Wasn’t it Latika?
When is the RC appearance ?
Late August / early September.
[9
Trog Sorrenson
Which is why I am now Greens member.
If Labor votes – such as my former one – bleed over to the Greens…]
…then the cards held by the LNP will be strengthened.
The undeniable maxim of Australian politics is that it is dominated by the LNP. Their supremacy has its reciprocal – those who oppose them are weakened by their division and confusion.
Ta Steve
Brandis has declined to meet the delegation of 60 arts/company reps coming to Canberra tomorrow.
Too weak to defend his own bad decisions.
Good Morning I posted this last night
[The figures are detailed in fine-print in documents lodged with the Australian Electoral Commission as well as documents before the Abbott government’s royal commission into union corruption.
Fairfax Media understands that some of these amounts include spending on training and payroll deductions that the union will defend if quizzed by the royal commission.
Huntsman denied any improper payments had been made and said from 2004 it paid the AWU for an on-site “workplace change facilitator”, whose role was to balance the “needs of the unionised workforce and the company”.]
I think this is just smear. As you can see if its lodged with the electoral commission its not exactly hiding corrupt payments.
Yes there is some that are unexplained however that does not mean corrupt or against the interests of the union members.
However this may be enough to end Mr Shorten’s leadership. The impression that is left with voters may see to that. Its kind of like the payments to people smugglers to stop boats leaving Indonesia vs those made to turn boats around. The truth can be hidden behind just leaving implication hanging.
http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/bill-shortens-union-took-hundreds-of-thousands-from-building-company-20150617-ghq5si.html
lizzie
Tony may walk like a Neanderthal, but he is no boxer. He closes his eyes when he boxes and flails about. (This can still work as a strategy if your opponent is weak.)
Sorry. I didn’t mean to be Neanderthalist. They were probably very good people – in a cannibalistic sort of way.
Trog
Cannibals? Were you there? I demand proof !!
briefly 71
[The undeniable maxim of Australian politics is that it is dominated by the LNP. Their supremacy has its reciprocal – those who oppose them are weakened by their division and confusion.]
At some point you need to actually run with correct and defensible policies even if it means short term political disadvantage.
There is very rapid change occurring in technology, society, and the environment. We need to be ahead of the game, not playing silly political games for incremental tactical benefits.
AA @62,
You are correct re penalty rates under the award you quoted.
Bill Shorten negotiated Enterprise bargaining agreements in 2004 and 2006 with Cleanevent. The national cleaning award did not exist in 2004 or 2006. It is a 2010 award, well after Bill Shorten left the union.
The agreements negotiated by Bill Shorten went to the Industrial Commission and were ratified which, in every case, means they passed a no disadvantage test.
cheers.
lizzie @76
Try Googling ‘neanderthal cannibal attack’.
The Neanderthals may well have questions to answer.
Comment on the Fairfax article about Shorten:
[From this article
“an additional stress for Mr Shorten, who is experiencing declining popularity and a resurgent government…….”
From 3 days ago
“the latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows Labor leading the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis by 53 per cent to 47 per cent. Bill Shorten has nudged ahead of Tony Abbott in terms of approval and preferred prime minister”
Which do I believe?]
Fairfax is just hanging on in business by the skin of its teeth. For them to be pontificating about anything is ludicrous.
I was thinking about Bronnie’s refusal to allow Labor objections in QT. She thinks she is the only one who understands the rules. Then I remembered how often Peter Slipper sat her back in her box when she tried to lecture and object. She rarely won. Is this revenge, bias, or does she have a different guidebook? 😉
guytaur@74: It’s not all that much really. A $300,000 employer contribution to union training activities after an agreement is struck is nothing particularly new, and I doubt it’s illegal.
The employer paying for union memberships is, as far as I know, not illegal, although it certainly isn’t an ideal practice.
What the 73 dodgy votes in Auburn has to do with anything I can’t work out: it is hardly likely that Shorten had a hand in it in any way, shape or form. You wouldn’t have to dig too far into Albo’s NSW Hard Left faction’s past to find some dodgy stuff too.
It’s definitely a beat-up.
That’s why I find the editorial so surprising. I really can’t recall anything similar from the SMH in living memory.
Fairfax also promised us we would see “vigorous, policy-driven democratic debate” as soon as Julia Gillard stepped down.
Trog
Neanderthals must have had charm of a sort – I believe they interbred with early hominids. And cannibalism has taken a long time to die out.
mimhoff
WOW! 😆
The comment on Bill Shorten may having to resign as leader is because I am thinking of the politics. With this government acting like it is with citizenship I put nothing past them.
So I expect a campaign like that done against Thomson. A lot of allegations thrown so some mud sticks.
I am in no way saying Shorten is guilty of any illegality as courts found Thomson was.
meher baba
I dont recall anything similar. As i stated, am flabbergasted. Unless there is something else going on
lizzie
You can tell people with cannibal genes. They have a very faint smile on their face and tend to look slightly downwards and to the left.
Just like Bronwyn Bishop on Qanda the other night.
Lizzie @ 81
[Is this revenge, bias, or does she have a different guidebook? ;)]
Why is the word ‘or’, rather than ‘and’, there?
[77
Trog Sorrenson
briefly 71
The undeniable maxim of Australian politics is that it is dominated by the LNP. Their supremacy has its reciprocal – those who oppose them are weakened by their division and confusion.
At some point you need to actually run with correct and defensible policies even if it means short term political disadvantage.
There is very rapid change occurring in technology, society, and the environment. We need to be ahead of the game, not playing silly political games for incremental tactical benefits.]
So what is it you think you’re doing…
– conceding short term political disadvantage, or
– playing…for incremental tactical benefits
??
Billy Gordon MP has been cleared of the allegations the LNP brought up.
The problem is the damage is done. Mr Gordon should still be a member of the ALP.
@abcnewsPerth: Recent misconduct allegations within secret CCC unit show need for independent oversight, committee head says http://t.co/nO1xQZ2Bre #wapol
lizzie
[ Neanderthals must have had charm of a sort – I believe they interbred with early hominids. And cannibalism has taken a long time to die out. ]
That goes a long way towards explaining the behaviour of our current PM.
That SMH editorial calling for Bill Shorten to “consider his future” is bizarre. If it was in the Australian or the Telecrap I would assume that it was simply Newscorp running interference for the Government by distracting from its current difficulties. While the SMH world view in general leans towards the Coalition, it is normally balanced and it does not actively campaign for it.
The Editorial includes the following:
[“Mr Shorten could shrug some of this off if voters had warmed to him. While the Labor leader in person is a smart and charismatic man with good ideas, he remains approved by only 41 per cent of voters, the Fairfax-Ipsos poll says. The latest revelations over his AWU past also came a day after he had been caught out playing bad politics, as the Greens and the government compromised on pension reform.”]
So it would be OK if Shorten was doing better in the polls? If he played ‘better politics’? He hasn’t been accused of doing anything illegal here. All of this seems to be based upon publically available information, old news. 73 member address changes in Auburn? Is the SMH accusing Shorten of involvement in changing them? They’re scraping the barrel there.
Unless there is more to come, what’s the problem?
TPOF
I stand corrected 🙂
[82
meher baba
It’s definitely a beat-up.
That’s why I find the editorial so surprising. I really can’t recall anything similar from the SMH in living memory.]
Fairfax have always gunned against unions…since long before the ALP was formed. However much they may dislike Abbott, they dislike unions even more.
We have seen the NSW LNP behave very differently to the rest of the party. I put this down to ICAC. After all this is the same party and branches on the Federal and State level.
I truly think it is in Labor’s best interest to have a Federal ICAC along the lines of the NSW one with teeth as far as the High Court allows.
This way no more star chamber style Royal Commissions set up by LNP governments.
Fairfax consider themselves players. That pretty much explains everything.
[91
guytaur
The problem is the damage is done. Mr Gordon should still be a member of the ALP]
Gordon is no longer a member of the ALP because he deceived them.
briefly @70
None of your options.
Long term strategic advantage.