James J in comments relates that the latest Newspoll result for The Australian, which I believe will be the third last poll we get from Newspoll-as-we-know-it, has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 41%, with Labor steady on 37% and the Greens up one to 13%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down a point to 38% and his disapproval up one to 53%, while Bill Shorten continues to haemorrhage at 32% approval (down three) and 50% disapproval (up four). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 41-37, up from 41-40. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1169.
Also:
• The latest fortnightly Morgan result records a slight increase in Labor’s lead after an unusually weak result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s primary vote down half a point to 41%, Labor’s up a point and a half to 37%, the Greens up half to 13% and Palmer United down among Katter’s Australian Party in statistically insignficant territory. This results in a slight shift in the two-party lead from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48, although a stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences this time causes a bigger move on that measure, from 51-49 to 53-47.
• Media outlets have reported on two privately conducted ReachTEL polls over the past week, both providing encouraging news for the Coalition. The Guardian reported on an ACTU-commissioned poll of marginal seats which found “a primary vote swing of between 2% and 4% against the sitting Coalition MP, but in most cases voters had switched to the Greens or the undecided column rather than to Labor”. I take that to suggest an overall two-party swing to Labor of around 2%. The poll was conducted a fortnight ago, and targeted one seat in each state: Page, Corangamite, Leichhardt, Swan, Hindmarsh and Braddon. Further results in the article relate an expectation that the government will make further cuts to health and education. The Australian reported that polling of four of Tasmania’s five seats, the exception being Denison, found Labor losing support to the Greens while the Coalition held firm, and also found about 40% agreeing they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported reinstatement of wood waste in the Renewable Energy Target, compared with around 14% for less likely. The polls were conducted on May 21 for the Australian Forest Products Association.
• Jared Owens of The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella will face two rivals for Liberal preselection in her bid to recover her old seat of Indi, which she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. One is Kevin Ekendahl, owner of an auditing and compliance business in Wodonga and candidate for Melbourne Ports in 2010 and 2013, who has “campaigned for same-sex marriage”, which Mirabella opposes. The other is Andrew Walpole, who owns property in the electorate but works as an anaesthetist at the Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital in Melbourne. Speaking of Melbourne-based, an Australian Federal Police deputy commissioner told Senate estimates this week that it had referred to the public prosecutor four alleged cases of fraudulent involvement from the electorate, out of 28 cases referred to it. This follows claims last year that a substantial number of Cathy McGowan had enrolled in the electorate despite living in Melbourne, most of them being university students who grew up in the electorate.
• Special Minister of State Michael Ronaldson has ordered a Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into “claims of intimidation outside election polling booths and the handing out of misleading leaflets”.
• The AEC published public submissions last week as part of its process for the federal redistribution of New South Wales, which will reduce the state’s seat share from 48 to 47. I put the submissions for the two major parties through the wringer in this post, where you can find interactive maps of the proposals along with my determinations of notional seat margins. I’ve also belatedly attached such a map to my similar post for the Western Australian redistribution from mid-April. Draft boundaries for both redistributions are scheduled for the third quarter of this year, with final determinations to be made early next year. There is also a redistribution of the two Australian Capital Territory seats in train, which no one seems terribly excited about.
• I had paywalled pieces in Crikey last week concerning the electoral dimensions of same-sex marriage and contradictory Queensland state poll results.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The only change in the weekly reading from Essential Research is a one point increase in the Labor primary vote to 40%, leaving the Coalition 41%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 1%, with Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds 59% saying it should be allowed and 30% saying it shouldn’t, respectively steady and up two since February. However, the difference is narrower on likelihood of same-sex marriage influencing vote choice, with 34% saying more likely and 22% less likely. Also feaatured are questions on leadership attributes, which as usual record collective movements in line with recent polling on personal approval. That means better ratings for Tony Abbott than in February, with the biggest movements on “out of touch with ordinary people” (down seven to 65%), “erratic” (down six to 54%) and “a capable leader” (up six to 40%). Bill Shorten’s movements might be thought surprisingly modest given his recent polling form – he’s down four points on “a capable leader” to 43%, but also on “narrow-minded”, to 34%.
As it does from time to time, Essential has also sought to gauge the accuracy of respondents’ understanding a public policy issue, in this case the proportion of the federal budget devoted to foreign aid, and found only 13% offering the correct answer of less than 1%. This gives a bit of edge to its finding that 44% think the government spends too much on foreign aid, compared with 16% for too little and 21% for just right. Respondents were also asked to rate the importance of giving foreign aid to various countries, with impoverished neighbours rating highest (66% for Pacific Island countries, 65% for Papua New Guinea) and, I cannot help but notice, Islamic countries rating lowest (Indonesia 39%, Middle East countries 26%).
TPOF
[Posted Wednesday, June 3, 2015 at 9:26 pm | PERMALINK
MH @ 1293
And I should add that the only reason Captain Chaos has not died of shame to this point in time is that he is a psychopath who does not know what shame feels like but does know how to use it as a weapon against his opponents.]
Hear bloody hear!!
DN
I hope not.
I don’t understand why the small business bill wasn’t brought to a vote immediately seeing there was bipartisan agreement.
When the metadata retention amendment was brought in, as soon as the two majors got their agreement together, it went immediately, and ignoring any cross-bencher attempts to stall or debate it further.
[1250
Matt]
We will see. Howard at least had the capacity to raise an argument and would set out to persuade people to his view. Abbott is a different story. He is contempt itself. He really brings the whole process into disrepute. Considering the fairly low expectations voters have of MP’s, this is really quite something. Abbott is now a reason for popular repulsion.
briefly @ 1300
I wasn’t having a go at Turnbull on that – I was pointing out the hypocrisy of his detractors in the Liberal party and the fact that they have the moral flexibility of contortionists.
I was convinced it was Bishop, but she has been direct and clear with her denials. I never thought it was Turnbull, because he is too smart to do anything that will give his enemies in his party the weapon to swing waverers against him. I am starting to think now that this is a bizarre play by Abbott and his office to build up a groundswell of public opinion to push Cabinet to change its mind and wedge Labor.
If so, it is utterly dumb. Apart from the Halal hating harpies, there simply is not a large body of people who are keen enough to go to rendering people stateless – and those prepared to consider it will be hard pressed to identify how it is anything more than spite and certainly not in the interests of achieving any improvement in national security.
This could well be the subject where the Australian ‘fair go’ will turn around to bite Abbott on the bum – especially when it is made clear to the public that decision to render someone stateless will be in the hands of Mr Potato Head.
1304 Briefly
Howard and his predecessors did not have to deal with the new media cycle.
[ Stop groupthinking, you lot. ]
Sir, Yes, Sir!!! 🙂
So is Gillard putting in a Workplace bullying complaint against Rudd?
[1305
TPOF]
I agree
TrueBlueTroll @1259:
[Gay Marriage just isn’t that important to be honest.
We are in the middle of budget season which is vital to the Australian economy and yet we got ALP Navel Gazers trying to make a fringe issue like Gay Marriage the issue of the day. Pullease]
If it’s so vital to get the Budget-related business done, then why not just vote the small-business bill out of the House, and send it into the Senate’s in-tray?
And don’t bother trotting out that tired crap about “The Senate’s busy!”, since you justified the Government’s voting down the immediate vote on those grounds.
Either the Senate’s too busy to hear the small-business bill, or it isn’t. If it is, then why the urgency about budgetary affairs? If it isn’t, then why didn’t the Government take the chance to send this bill to them right away?
Whichever is true, you’ve contradicted yourself at least once recently.
[Howard and his predecessors did not have to deal with the new media cycle.]
Suck it up. I’ll get you a straw.
[It was raining heavily in Canberra on Wednesday so, after question time, Julia Gillard walked the corridors back to her office rather than cut across a courtyard as she usually does.
As she strolled past opposition MPs’ offices, Christopher Pyne and Joe Hockey, like two schoolyard ne’er-do-wells, trailed about 10 paces behind, heckling. Hockey was bellowing the Engelbert Humperdinck lyrics: “Please release me, let me go, ’cause I don’t love you any more …” Pyne, doing his best to affect a menacing gravitas, was taunting repeatedly: “You’re drowning Julia, not waving, you’re drowning.”
By any measure, it was disrespectful behaviour towards a prime minister but Gillard, whose government has plumbed record depths in unpopularity, is getting used to such treatment and ignored her tormenters.]
Phillip Coorey SMH 22/8/11
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/poll-roundup-whole-lotta-nothing-going.html
Poll Roundup: Whole Lotta Nothing Going On
2PP aggregate 51.8 (no change for last 2 weeks)
Also includes comments on same-sex marriage polling
[1306
silmaj
1304 Briefly
Howard and his predecessors did not have to deal with the new media cycle.]
Abbott can’t string an argument together. He thinks and speaks in slogans and exhibits nothing much more than aggression. He treats everyone – including the voters – as if we’re all idiots. This has nothing to do with the media cycle. It has everything to do with Abbott’s capacity and character.
silmaj@1215
What bullshit!
Fredex @1312:
Typical Liberal behaviour: Do as they say, not as they do. Only Liberal PMs are worth of basic respect. Only Liberal Governments are “legitimate”. Liberal obstructionism is “statesmanship”, while Labor agreement with Liberal bills is “politicking” and “partisanship”.
There comes a time for many people when they must face a dilemma – principle or pragmatism.
What (if any) will be Turnbull’s line that he cannot cross. What if any will be his principle that forces him to resign from Cabinet.
He may as well quit the Liberals as he has zero chance of ever leading again. He would be more use to the nation as an Independent.
Matt@1310
What angers me more now is that we’re paying our HoR members to continue to debate something that already has super-majority support, when they could be moving on to other bills. Talk about an echo chamber.
davidwh@1229
Yes, they voted against voting for their own bill.
Makes sense to you?
Lu1311
Facts always get that response
1314 Briefly
Your tyrades against Abbott who happens to be leader of the party you despise does not change the fact the media cycle has changed and with it the politicians.
1315 Bemused
Labors record on small business is explained by the 6 monthly rotation of ministers representing it.
Re DTT @1317: haven’t seen you for a while.
If Turnbull had a line the Abbott Government would have long since crossed it.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-03/farming-family-opts-for-solar-power-battery-system/6519960
It’s going to happen eventually. They are using it because it costs too much to connect to the grid in the first place.
[When Katherine Naughton’s family moved to a farm in Northam, north-east of Perth, it was going to cost them up to $60,000 to connect their house to the power grid.
But for just two thirds of that cost they have been able to install a solar power storage system, harnessing all of their electrical needs from the sun.
“Not having that $400 bill every three months is just fantastic,” Ms Naughton said.]
silmaj @1320:
[Labors record on small business is explained by the 6 monthly rotation of ministers representing it.]
As opposed to the Coalition, which seems to be determined to drive them out of business due to recession, aging/shoddy infrastructure…
1323
Once again you’re laying your opinion on the economy going backwards. My advice just wait and see.
silmaj.
Facts… you’re side want to start arguing with facts now?
FMD
[1320
silmaj
1314 Briefly
Your tyrades against Abbott]
Would be spelled tirade…
1325
You dispute it say so.
[1324
silmaj
1323
Once again you’re laying your opinion on the economy going backwards. My advice just wait and see.]
We don’t have to wait. We can already see the economy is going backwards. From an income perspective (rather than in terms of expenditure), the economy has grown just 1.3% in the last year, or, in fact, has contracted in per capita terms.
The reported quarterly increase is entirely due to the seasonal adjustment applied to the chain volume measure. The actual nominal record shows exports contracted in the March Quarter.
Domestic demand is recessed and in per capita terms is declining.
1326
My apologies. But while I’m here how accurate was your GDP prediction and did you note the increase in manufacturing PMI?.
[1329
My apologies. But while I’m here how accurate was your GDP prediction]
I didn’t make a prediction but simply note that nearly everything depends on how households respond to further pressure on their incomes.
1328
Well I got the answer as I was posting it. The dataset is flawed. So I can assume you think it will be a lower figure next time?
The manufacturing report is almost irrelevant to the economy because it is such a small part of the economy (only about 6%) and will in any case just get smaller with the closure of the auto assembly sector.
I gotta share this….
Lindsay Graham just joined the race for the presidency. Thank ya O lord.
http://on.aol.com/video/jon-stewart-and-john-oliver-do-their-best-lindsey-graham–mashup–517948454
davidwh@1255
Fair enough comrade, but they cannot then whinge about the opposition holding it up.
It’s indisputable, but I dispute its relevance to the matter at hand.
[1331
Well I got the answer as I was posting it. The dataset is flawed. So I can assume you think it will be a lower figure next time?]
We don’t know. There has been no growth in incomes for a very long time. Maybe households are used to that and will not react to it. But maybe they will respond to falling disposable incomes by trying to lift savings/postpone consumption, in which case there could easily be a recession.
1330
This is something that some just don’t get. Pressure on incomes only matters if pricing(CPI) has pressure. At the moment there is none and the RBA has acknowledged this. Wages always should be in line with CPI. As it is turning out the most recent developments according to Data is that wages are slightly above CPI. This will increase spending power and stimulate economy. The next GDP figure will be higher again.
A side note our factory has picked up that many orders that we can’t possibly produce them on time. My transport business is so busy now that I can’t assist the manufacturing business as I could in the past. As I drive through the city there is the most cranes in the CBD and surrounding suburbs along with uncountable amounts of DA’s in all suburbs. My prediction is this economy is about to take off
Boerwar@1274
Brilliant!
😀
silmaj
when and by how much? It needs to get GDP growth to the forecast 3.5% by 17/18.
[1337
silmaj
…it is turning out the most recent developments according to Data is that wages are slightly above CPI.]
This is not so. The measure for “All employees average weekly total earnings” rose 1.3% in the year to November 2014, less than the CPI, which increased 2.3% in the same year.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/7F76D15354BB25D5CA2575BC001D5866?opendocument
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/A4DBBD95E89E4C75CA257E2E00130A5C?opendocument
Seasonally adjusted wages growth in the year to the March Quarter 2015 was 2.3%, the same as inflation. Income growth is a recessed as it was during the 1990/91 recession.
How will households respond? Nobody knows.
If, like me, you cant quite make out the words to the Jon Stewart bit around the 1m15s mark of my link due to laughing tears out your ears; here is the script…
[Oh, with all due respect, this president does not care… For he is a cad and a scoundrel. It is as plain as the alabaster tone in my creamy skin and as simple as my maid kicked in the head by a donkey! This president lies…. Like all the other men who woo you with their lies and leave behind nothing but broken dreams and a torn cotton negligee you ordered special from a yankee catalog.]
[1337
silmaj
A side note our factory has picked up that many orders that we can’t possibly produce them on time. My transport business is so busy now that I can’t assist the manufacturing business as I could in the past.]
This does not correspond with the data on domestic demand, which depicts weakness despite strong population growth, and does not match the sequential declines in investment spending. Even so, maybe you’re right and unmet demand will translate into higher consumption rather than, as appears to be the case, into higher inventories.
In Sydney at least, any ‘real’ increase in wages has been more than offest for many by increasing housing prices.
1340
The wage increase for minimum wage was 2.5 %. That is above the 2.3% you mentioned.
1339 SK .9% was for one quarter. Times it by four and that forecast is achieved easily.
Will exports continue to exhibit seasonally-adjusted growth? Maybe not. Iron ore exports fell from March to April:
http://www.pilbaraports.com.au/Home/About-PPA/News-and-Publications/Latest-news/April-shipping-figures
http://www.pilbaraports.com.au/Home/About-PPA/News-and-Publications/Latest-news/March-shipping-figures
Something totally off topic
It has just been recent mentioned to me that the technology in the motor vehicle industry has at this point been kept within industry. Soon it will be released on to construction and other industries. This will be interesting.
[In Sydney at least, any ‘real’ increase in wages has been more than offest for many by increasing housing prices.]
What the hell are you complaining about?
Yesterday the Prime Minister pointed out in parliament that he (and a bank) owns a home in Sydney, so there is absolutely no problem. Everything is fine.
[The wage increase for minimum wage was 2.5 %.]
That is the rate.
It is not necessarily the amount received.
Part time and casual workers [loosely defined that’s roughly about a third of all wage earners in Australia] who receive the minimum rate on less than a full week of employment for a full year will fall behind CPI.
silmaj@1320
That proves nothing.
The Noalition has not been good for small business.
[1339
Simon Katich
silmaj
when and by how much? It needs to get GDP growth to the forecast 3.5% by 17/18.]
It’s just about impossible for the economy to grow at this pace while investment is declining.
The apparent growth reported today arises wholly from the seasonal adjustment to export volumes. This adjustment reversed the actual nominal change in exports, which fell in the quarter. The nominal balance on goods and services exports fell 37% in the quarter but this was reversed statistically to show a 24% increase.
This adjustment will wash out of the system over coming quarters. The GDP report for the same quarter in 2014 showed a similar lumpy lift but also faded through they rest of 2014.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/5302.0/