Every pollster under the sun took the field this week, and the collective verdict from the six pollsters as aggregated in BludgerTrack is that the Coalition two-party vote has lifted 0.7% in the wake of the budget. The result on the seat projection is even more striking, with Labor now reduced to minority government territory, although the presence of Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie on the hypothesised cross-bench suggests that 74 seats would still be enough for them to form government. The Coalition has had considerable bang for its post-budget buck on the seat projection, because state breakdowns (including published ones from Ipsos and Morgan, and unpublished ones from ReachTEL and Essential Research) suggest the biggest gain has been in marginal seat-rich Queensland, whereas Labor’s vote has held firm in the less strategically important state of Victoria. All told, the Coalition is credited with two gains in Queensland, and one each in New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. New results on personal ratings were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, and they offer no sign that Tony Abbott’s remarkable recovery from the depths of February is abating, his net approval rating now being no worse than it was before last year’s budget. However, they also suggest that Bill Shorten’s recent downward slide has levelled off.
Apropos of not very much, here’s a display of Newspoll’s post-budget polling results going back to the late 1980s. The scatterplot shows the strong relationship that exists between the results for personal financial impact and overall economic impact, with this year’s result indicated by the pink dot.
Player one
It is amazing that the Ipsos poll has done its job. Abbott is still very much disliked in the electorate. But now the narrative focuses on Shorten. The public hate them both, so lets pile on Shorten.
[33
TrueBlueAussie
Bill Shorten does NOT want an inquiry into Iron Ore price fixing and has demanded Abbott rule out an inquiry.]
No-one loves Twiggy or Gina these days.
Of course, the most likely results of an inquiry would be to show that various players in China and Singapore, with the connivance of the miners, made vast fortunes by insider trading in the iron ore market. Chinese mills and consumers paid for it on the way up. Shareholders, workers and taxpayers in Australia have paid for it one the way down.
[lizzie
Posted Thursday, May 21, 2015 at 9:00 am | PERMALINK
Okay, if the media are going to call it a carbon tax, might as well give up, anyway.]
Not necessarily Lizzie. Labor needs to emphasise that it is NOT a carbon tax they are proposing but rather an ETS – and they need to start doing that now, even if the detail does not come until later.
Is this damn preview button going to be fixed any time soon?
Actually, Hockey has been through BBC Thacker’s “Hard Talk” interview some months ago. Of course, done in London I suspect, out of the glare and probably knowledge of our ever-alert media pack here, Hockey was able to bluster his way through.
[53
Darn
lizzie
Posted Thursday, May 21, 2015 at 9:00 am | PERMALINK
Okay, if the media are going to call it a carbon tax, might as well give up, anyway.]
There is an alternative to imposing a price on carbon by direct mechanisms. That is to simply change the Renewable Energy Target – to set rolling increases in the target such that by 2050, at least 90% of electricity production must come from RE.
For goodness sake, don’t waste time on the the resident jester.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-21/green-game-of-thrones-reduces-rape-to-entertainment/6485596
victoria
[ The public hate them both, so lets pile on Shorten. ]
I’m not sure that’s true. Did you read the SMH article BK posted?
[ http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/no-worming-their-way-out-of-it-voters-hate-abbott-and-shorten-20150520-gh5y6s.html ]
Here is a comment typical of the responses for Abbott:
[ On the opposite side of the table, another man laughed ruefully: “You want the idea that your prime minister is smarter than you are, not the other way around.” ]
Here is a comment typical of the responses for Shorten:
[ “He doesn’t look a prime minister,” a man said quietly but firmly. ]
Yes, there are worse comments for both – but these convey the general tone of the responses.
I think this is one of those “they’re both the same” articles that the media loves when they can’t really find anything to bring down the side they want to destroy – in this case, Shorten.
And if that’s the case, it seems he must be doing something right. Certainly the “concerned” PB commentariat seems to think so.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/
[Several analysts have come forward arguing that Australia’s dwelling construction boom is on borrowed time and will likely peak over the next 12 months. Key amongst these is the Housing Industry Association…]
If land and housing start to tank, it will be all over the the Abbott Government. They have no economic policy other than to sit and watch…totally useless…
Good Morning.
Well the Royal Commission into child abuse is going to change the game for Operation Cover UP.
All those questions on notice will not work for Transfield, Wilson Security and Government Ministers.
“@political_alert: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Shadow Communications Minister Jason Clare will visit @Google in Sydney this morning, 11am. #auspol #STEM”
58
lizzie
Violent fantasies as mass-amusement…doesn’t work for me!
briefly
[If land and housing start to tank]
Not to worry, Joe and The Oaf will explain how it was really all Labor’s fault 🙂
briefly
Those that want violent fantasies as mass amusement have them already. Hollywood provides. Game of Thrones is but one example.
No advantage to any politician in trying to cultivate the saturated field.
briefly
I have never watched GoT and only report what others say. IMV the normalisation of violence of all kinds has been encouraged in the media.
[60
briefly]
Capital formation in the domestic sector is already the lowest it has been since the 1990/91 recession and has been semi-propped up by residential construction. If this investment starts to decline (population growth has receded and high prices have repelled first home buyers from the market) then private investment in both the domestic and export sectors will be falling together. Public investment has also been falling.
Falling investment, falling terms of trade, negative real per capita income growth, feeble labour demand…these are enormous challenges for this economy. What are the LNP proposing? Absolutely nothing at all. Nothing.
lizzie
I [refer the reality of how violent we as human beings are being shown to the fantasy that Hollywood used to employ.
The violence limits are tested in the horror genre. It only gets to shows like Game of Thrones after Hollywood has seen reactions to that.
The Final Destination movies for example pure violence porn
Yes, two uninspiring leaders go head to head to 2016.
One regarded as an idiot, the other a bland hack.
I like to think that might make it all about policy, but somehow….
Player one
You make a good point.
Shorten has in effect played small target strategy to date. He has not given them anything much to work with. So the default position of the msm is to state that Abbott and Shorten are as bad as each other
As I posted the other day, I believe that Bill Shorten is doing a solid, if unspectacular job as Opposition Leader, rather like Kim Beazley or Bill Hayden in earlier times. There is no Messiah waiting in the wings, no Whitlam or Hawke or Keating. On the other hand, Beazley and Hayden faced much more formidable opponents (John Howard and Malcolm Fraser) than Bill Shorten faces in Tony Abbott.
Albo may or may not have been a better choice 19 months ago, but the decision has been made. Other possible leaders are not yet ready. We don’t want to burn them the way Julia Gillard was burnt. Leadership instability now will offset any benefit that a change may have. For better or worse, supporting Bill Shorten as leader is the best chance to restrict Tony Abbott’s Government to a single term.
lizzzie
I should add the best horror movie I have seen is the first Alien movie. You did not see the monster for the majority of the movie and actually relied on the fear of the unknown to a great extent.
65
lizzie
It is weird. One of my siblings really enjoys the horror/gore genre. He’s the mildest and most conservative and conformist of blokes, church-going, obedient, devoted to his family, hardly been known to raise his voice, let alone his fists. But I absolutely cannot watch that stuff…vicarious or not, I cannot go there. There is nothing amusing about depictions of violence. I just do not understand it at all.
This was posted at the end of last thread, and as I fully agree with it I have reposted it in case anyone misses it.
“BlurbUllage
Posted Thursday, May 21, 2015 at 1:09 am | PERMALINK
From Greensborough Growler earlier today:
BK,
You seem to be enjoying the procession of victim porn this Child Abuse RC is delivering.
GG,
What a vile, disgusting, filthy and disgraceful insinuation.
How BLOODY DARE you.
Do you know this man? Do you have a clue as to why he may wish to expose the immorality of followers and exponents of your damned god.
Have you, what with your sly and repeated insinuation of a disingenuous motive, experienced anything, outside of your own messed up morality?
May your unrepentent arsehole of a deity await you in the fiery depths…”
This was posted at the end of last thread and as I fully agree with it I have reposted it in case anyone misses it.
“BlurbUllage
Posted Thursday, May 21, 2015 at 1:09 am | PERMALINK
From Greensborough Growler earlier today:
BK,
You seem to be enjoying the procession of victim porn this Child Abuse RC is delivering.
GG,
What a vile, disgusting, filthy and disgraceful insinuation.
How BLOODY DARE you.
Do you know this man? Do you have a clue as to why he may wish to expose the immorality of followers and exponents of your damned god.
Have you, what with your sly and repeated insinuation of a disingenuous motive, experienced anything, outside of your own messed up morality?
May your unrepentent arsehole of a deity await you in the fiery depths…”
Didn’t intend a double but …….
Steve 777
Agree, I think Shorten is doing all that can be expected, whatever happens, he mustn’t be forced to be someone that he’s not, only being natural will cut it. ALP policies are sound. I think people are really over politicians at the moment. If the population chooses Abbott over Shorten then they can hardly complain later.
BHP: The big entertainer
[The US government has charged BHP Billiton with breaches of foreign corrupt practices act and imposed a $US25 million ($31.8 million) fine over a hospitality program to entertain 176 foreign government officials at the Beijing Olympics in 2008.
In a statement on Thursday morning, BHP Billiton chief executive Andrew Mackenzie said the US Securities and Exchange Commission was enforcing an administrative order over the company’s failure to meet internal record keeping standards about its Olympic hospitality program, required under the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and the American Department of Justice was not taking any action.]
http://www.theage.com.au/business/us-anticorruption-body-charges-bhp-billiton-over-beijing-olympics-hospitality-20150520-gh692q.html
I am not in favour of ALP #leadershit, but I do think Shorten needs a matter-of-fact voice. Loud, clear and competent.
The focus groups complain he is invisible but what do they want? Stunts? Abbott copied Hawke and chugged a beer in front of a bar full of young Lib’s (after making sure they had their phone video’s going). Were the focus groups asked about crap like that?
Abbott presser now.
guytaur @71
[relied on the fear of the unknown]
Yes. I can conjure up enough fears in my own mind so do not need the added terror of an image.
briefly
I have known (quite separately) two very gentle men who seemed to be fascinated by the 2 world wars.
This is the big financial news
[Five of the world’s largest banks are to pay fines totalling $5.7bn ($7.08bn) for charges including manipulating the foreign exchange market.
Four of the banks – JPMorgan, Barclays, Citigroup and RBS – have agreed to plead guilty to US criminal charges.
The fifth, UBS, will plead guilty to rigging benchmark interest rates.
Barclays was fined the most, $2.4bn, as it did not join other banks in November to settle investigations by UK, US and Swiss regulators.
Barclays is also sacking eight employees involved in the scheme.
US Attorney General Loretta Lynch said that “almost every day” for five years from 2007, currency traders used a private electronic chat room to manipulate exchange rates.
Their actions harmed “countless consumers, investors and institutions around the world”, she said.
Separately, the Federal Reserve fined a sixth bank, Bank of America, $205m over foreign exchange-rigging. All the other banks were fined by both the Department of Justice and the Federal Reserve.]
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32817114
Oh, Abbott of course straight back on to the carbon tax.
lizzie
No surer sign of panic
Question at 78
I get a real sense that when you are an ALP Opposition Leader, you’re given extremely limited media time as the LNP are backed by Murdoch. Shorten may be able to polish up his ‘style’ a little but to what end?
Why does little Brucie always make me feel icky.
Tones presser in SA .Reckons “This is the best budget ever for small business” . Hohoho.
Oh wow
Abbott
[I am not here to pick a fight]
‘I’m not here to pick a fight’, says the most belligerent PM we’ve had.
CE
[ I get a real sense that when you are an ALP Opposition Leader, you’re given extremely limited media time as the LNP are backed by Murdoch. Shorten may be able to polish up his ‘style’ a little but to what end? ]
Or in other words, Shorten is doing as well as anyone in his position could be expected to do at this stage. The key thing for Shorten at the moment is not to get “spooked” into pretending to be something he isn’t.
guytaur
So where are all the criminal charges for such a massive theft/fraud ?
“@Rob_Stott: “nope nope nope” – Tony Abbott when asked if he’ll help to re-settle refugees”
[ ‘I’m not here to pick a fight’, says the most belligerent PM we’ve had. ]
To be fair, Abbott doesn’t actually pick fights. Being a cowardly bully is his modus operandi.
Ffs
Honestly i am sick to death of Abbott
CE,
Agreed, what little TV news I have seen in the past week has been determined to speak of the budget in terms of political and economic atmospherics rather than facts.
guytaur
Abbott is not panicking. Things have picked up for him. He is attempting consolidation
Slight grin of embarrassment when Pell is dropped into questions.
[I should add the best horror movie I have seen is the first Alien movie. You did not see the monster for the majority of the movie and actually relied on the fear of the unknown to a great extent.]
We watched it the other night in Cinemascope on The Big Screen. It was as chilling as when we first saw it, way back in 1979.
I agree with you 100% Guytaur: the suspense is the key. The monster is only ever seen in quick grabs, and most of the film you’re anticipating something awful, rather than seeing it.
There are a couple of key points – the chest-bursting scene, the part in the infirmary where the skin drops onto Ripley’s shoulders, the scenes in the hold with that wonderful internal rain, the air ducts (when he’s ordering the vents closed off you’re yelling at him “Don’t do it!”), and finally as Ripley is trying to get to the shuttle and looks nervously around the corner, strobe lit – all in all about three minutes of the film, but they set the audience up for awful anticipation.
There’s even a nice twist where Ripley goes off by herself to initiate the self-destruct mechanism (a no-no in creature films, because the isolated person is always eaten) and it’s the other two who get got.
Jerry Goldsmith’s music is perfect. The sets are suitably worn and used looking, and that last cautionary chord from Howard Hanson’s Symphony No. 2, just before the credits when Ripley is finally safe (?????) inside the hibernation cocoon was the perfect cherry on top.
The special effects did not look overdone, and you saw enough of the monster to know it was there and that “That thing’s b… b… big!”, but not enough to start you thinking it was just a tall, skinny guy in a rubber suit.
I also liked the cat, who knew what was going on and didn’t like one little bit of it.
A magnificent film, that can be watched over and over again. The true sign of a masterpiece.
Pity about Prometheus, which had vastly greater special effects, and was if anything more threatening than Alien, but which also lacked any trace of humour.
The old adage:”Make ’em laugh, make ’em cry (make ’em scream)” is as true today as it was in 1979.
Where does Abbott get the 7000 jobs destroyed by cancelling E-W Link?
I don’t think any LOTO has a wonderful job.
We need to keep coming back to two unspectacular and seemingly bland and largely unknown (outside their home States) LOTO who are now Premiers.
Given, in Queensland, in particular, the number of Labor members would actually fit into a mini-bus at one time, that Campbell N and his lot was sent packing in just one term is a sobering thought which is at the back of the mind of all LNP voters – and Labor one’s too of course.
The touted ‘facts’ that Shorten is bland, sounds like an accountant, is uninspiring, has not come up with any policies, has not broken through, does not present well, does not dress well, does not look like a PM, has blood on his hands – and a dozen other weaknesses that arm chair critics from both sides throw up, is the kind of stuff that all LOTO face.
It is just amazing how the mantle of power seems to turn such individuals into functioning leaders of their party in government.
How hard did the conservative media try to make their boy Abbott “look” priministerial?
The fact that he has the name but still is still a dud shows tarting of a man of no substance can only do so far.
I suspect when the election comes Shorten will be competitive.
There is no Bob Hawke waiting in the wings on the Labor side and only more Bovver Boys on the Tory side.
In that respect, it is true that our political leadership is pretty ordinary.
CE @ 76
[Agree, I think Shorten is doing all that can be expected, whatever happens, he mustn’t be forced to be someone that he’s not, only being natural will cut it. ALP policies are sound. I think people are really over politicians at the moment. If the population chooses Abbott over Shorten then they can hardly complain later.]
I agree with both of you, except I think Shorten has been deliberately playing down any aggression. I don’t think he has been his natural self and it might be about time that he was.