BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Very little doing on the polling front in the week before the budget, except for one further piece of evidence that Tony Abbott’s personal standing is on the mend.

This week’s reading of BludgerTrack comes in 0.4% higher for Labor on two-party preferred than last weeks, but 0.3% of that shift is down to an overdue recalibration of pollster bias adjustments based on observation of recent state election results, which I’ll hopefully find time to discuss in more detail next week. The column on the sidebar showing change on last week reflects the result of the model as recalibrated, and not what was actually published. As such, it provides an accurate reflection of the impact of the one poll to be published in this week’s pre-budget lull, namely a result from Essential Research that was very slightly better for Labor than it looked. The seat projection has Labor two higher than the published result from last week, accounting for one seat in Queensland and one in South Australia. The recalibration has no bearing on the leadership results, for which Essential Research this week provided some extra data. This confirmed Tony Abbott’s very narrow lead as preferred prime minister, while perhaps suggesting a levelling off in the recent decline in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

371 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 8
1 5 6 7 8
  1. Carmody would have to resign if the Morcombes make formal complaint about his delinquency in determining Cowan’s appeal

  2. TPOF

    [The problem is that the demands for it to be charged on physical imports are more to ensure that the expensive process of collecting the tax becomes a much greater deterrent to avoiding the ‘Australia tax’ than the GST itself. And that is the aim of retailers. ]

    Yep. Their aim is to make having to collect the physical goods and pay the GST is as inconvenient as possible.

  3. [ PPL Double dippers and rorters only the public servants apparently ]

    Hmmmm..that will head off industrial action in the public service with sweet words and reason then?

  4. TPOF

    I agree with you, I have no problem with paying GST on my online purchases as needed be. For me, it’ll be little more than 50c extra.

    What I am worried about is if online companies try to push up prices and try to blame it on this new Online GST, i.e. they use their existing services and equipment as a justification for charging more than 10% more on their goods, by saying that those existing services and equipment are being charged GST. (And trust me, there’s always going to be at least one company that’s just this sneaky to try this cheap trick.)

  5. BK

    Agreed on the dogs. But Joyce is just trying to deflect attention from the question of how they got through quarantine.

    Somebody didn’t do their job.

  6. BK

    Joyce did himself no favours here. It should have been left to the Quarantine Director whose decision it is anyway to do the media.

    Joyce is getting ribbed by social media because he inserted himself into something that would have been better left to his department and by doing so highlighted a failure of the LNP biosecurity net.

  7. [PPL Double dippers and rorters only the public servants apparently

    Hmmmm..that will head off industrial action in the public service with sweet words and reason then?]

    It’s a traaaap! The Libs want industrial action, they need a fight.

  8. RM

    I once got a verballing from a distributor for daring to ask why the product he was selling was 2.5 times the cost it was in the UK. He then lied to me about it being illegal for me to import it myself (even tho I hadnt mentioned nor even considered it an option at that time).

    I dont mind distributors passing on costs and making a profit, but this (and many other examples) are outrageous markups. Well, there is a cheaper and perfectly legal alternative through importing it yourself which is relatively easy now. Its a global market; many of our manufacturers have crumbled because of it so I will be damned if I replace the old import taxes that protected Australian companies that actually made things with an Australia Tax that gives my money to people who just distribute it.

  9. The “Australia Tax” is partly because of protectionism. That created a history of higher prices in Australia and many of the tariffed goods prices were not fully reduced when the tariffs came down and there were cheap imports. Australia`s higher wages and land prices have also played a part, reducing the ability to compete for lower prices. Australia`s small size and distance from similar markets (other than the even smaller NZ market) has also provided less competition to keep prices down.

  10. “@latikambourke: Staggering Govt has gone from promising ‘women of calibre’ full pay parental leave to saying it doesn’t support Labor’s ‘union mates’ scheme”

    I had to look hard almost thought it was a Labor quote

  11. rossmcg

    [Somebody didn’t do their job.]

    Quarantine has lost staff like it’s going out of fashion in the last 5 years.

    They can’t possibly inspect every ship, container, plane or even the mail.

  12. Tom
    Another effect of that is Australian stores almost always gets its video games weeks or even months after they launch in Japan, the Us and the UK, and is almost always much more expensive. (Surprise, Surprise.)

  13. “@BevanShields: I think the government has seriously misjudged the public mood on PPL. Sales pitch for the cuts is a disaster #auspol #budget2015”

    and another from Ms Bourke

    @latikambourke: Instead of focussing on public servants solely from the beginning, the Government on the defensive now looks like it is attacking PPL itself”

  14. CTar1

    Indeed, I understand that. But surely even when the private jet of the rich and infamous lobs somebody goes on board. Dogs in the toilet perhaps?

  15. rossmcg

    [But surely even when the private jet of the rich and infamous lobs somebody goes on board.]

    One of the little known features of this govt is to placate Truss / the Nats by approving lots of airports for international flights.

    Which means staff have to be found and inspection infrastructure has to be paid for.

    I don’t know what the rate of non-inspection is now compared with 10 years ago is but I’d say very much more.

  16. [I wonder if he knows what the word even means? I suppose it is juts one more lie among a lifetime of others.]

    For me, thats what the Left have to work on and practice – not just reminding people of the history of the deceit but not letting the public get used to it or tired of hearing it…..by linking it to trust and the potential for future deceit and encouraging consideration of the motives that underlie it.

  17. On the PPL, I think most of the public consider nurses and teachers, etc, to be employees of hospitals and schools, and so on.

    In the vernacular, a public servant works in a government office, not for a local (state) service provider.

    Eg. BBQ conversation:
    “What do you do?”
    “I work for NSW Office of Trade and Investment.”
    “Ah, a public servant.”
    “Yep. Yourself?”
    “I’m a physiotherapist.”
    “At a hospital?”
    “Yep, working in rehab. Old folk keep falling off ladders…”

  18. Just me @232

    I know where you are coming from and I agree with you about the “Only the Libs can manage the economy” crap which people just seem to accept. Apparently this was a factor in the recent English elections as the electorate was said to trust the Tory party to run the economy better than Labour there.

    And I have to admit a mea culpa with what you have said pertaining to Labor here as I said much the same thing about the recent UK election in which I posted that perhaps this election was not a bad one for Labour there to lose – being clobbered by the left in Scotland with the SNP and by the further swing to the right in Little England.

    Cameron is faced with 13% of his country wanting UKIP. He is lucky he did not have our voting system to deal with as it would be fun and games for him – and may yet be.

  19. Listening to QT on News Radio in the car. The ‘wall of noise’ is much more obtrusive than on ABC TV. I could hardly hear Bronnie screeching as she threw people out.

  20. TPOF @ 231,

    I know, I was only commenting on how to ‘frame’ the debate. Abbott has obviously decided his one trick GBNT scare can win it for him. If Labor can deny the Tax framing by pointing out even Hockey’s budget agrees it’s a spending cut then you help neutralise the Abbott meme.

  21. [On the PPL, I think most of the public consider nurses and teachers, etc, to be employees of hospitals and schools, and so on.]

    True, and the police, nurses etc were the ones abbott claimed were hit hard by labor on the FBT for cars.

    Yet abbott has hit them so much harder on PPL, they will be down a minimum of $9,000 thats net cash in hand.

  22. [ 2:40pm: Just by way of fyi – the Coalition voted for the paid parental leave scheme when Labor introduced the paid parental leave scheme legislation in 2010.

    It moved no amendments.]

    From the SHM politics page.

    This whole PPL thing is really not a good look for the Govt.

    They are making accusations of it being a rort, that they voted for?

    Was that oopsy we didn’t read it before we voted??

  23. [Yet abbott has hit them so much harder on PPL, they will be down a minimum of $9,000 thats net cash in hand.]

    And add to that that hospital and school workers are more likely to be women.

  24. [This whole PPL thing is really not a good look for the Govt.

    They are making accusations of it being a rort, that they voted for?

    Was that oopsy we didn’t read it before we voted??]

    It’s nothing to do with policy.

    They just want a fight with a union, so they can look strong.

  25. ABC ?Jennett just said all pollies are now on their way hoe. No one to listen to Shorten’s speech in reply to the budget? Come on, ABC, smarten up.

  26. Watching Greg Jennett doing his summing up. The whole summing up must have been written by Abbott’s office. Appallingly biased. Makes me sick to think it is our taxpayer’s money paying for another Liberal shill masquerading as a journalist.

  27. BK

    The bits I heard were incredible. Chaos.

    I was thinking, since she breaks with tradition and attends party room meetings, she would know in advance what the Libs’ theme for the day is, and can cut off in advance any successful narrative-building by Labor.

  28. [Looking at comments on Twitter Bronny Bishop must be playing a blinder today!]

    She was indeed. Trash in the Speaker’s seat. Worth watching today just to see how appallingly dishonest she was. Still, it is one of the few people to get me very angry – and that’s only because I actually care about the institution of parliament.

  29. I think Swanny gets so angry with the lies from Abbott/Hockey that he willingly throws himself on the sacrificial altar and gets booted in order to get his point across.

  30. lizzie

    [ think Swanny gets so angry with the lies from Abbott/Hockey that he willingly throws himself ]

    Something like that must fuel him otherwise he’d be at home looking at some very nice charts.

  31. [ Looking at comments on Twitter Bronny Bishop must be playing a blinder today! ]

    She has this reflex to simply shut out the Opposition as fast as she can. Any POO raised by the Opposition gets cut off almost before it is made, while Pyne gets to speak as he likes.

    And giving gratuitous advice to the PM on what parts of a question he can ignore? Does the PM really need mummy to hold his hand like that??

    Its obvious and blatant bias. I look forward to the day when the ALP have the numbers in the HOR to call for a vote on a new Speaker. They should dump her with a fine send off about restoring the dignity of the Office of Speaker. It has none at the moment.

    If Bishop has any sense she will retire at the next election and avoid the humiliation.

  32. [2:40pm: Just by way of fyi – the Coalition voted for the paid parental leave scheme when Labor introduced the paid parental leave scheme legislation in 2010.

    It moved no amendments.]

    Was Tony the Coalition boss by then? If so, then a big oops.

  33. lizzie, I don’t know her. I just was amazed at his summing up. He spells out some utterly meaningly spin bullshit from Abbott and Hockey as though it means something and then adds the throw-away line that Labor disputes this. Then he goes on for balance to outline wrongly some line that Labor was running and then smugly notes that Abbott managed to ‘turn it back on Labor’. Sickening.

  34. Imacca

    I suspect that Bronwyn Bishop will want to stay in parliament as long as she draws breath.

    Being nasty is in her DNA and Parliament is the forum she knows and loves.

  35. I hope next election, Labor pit Abbott against Abbott (ads?) and ask the audience which Abbott they believe, rather than what they did last election, which was run a scare campaign based on direct guesses of what he would do post-election – a perfectly reasonable one with perfectly reasonable guesses that have proven correct, mind you, but – the aim should be to win the election, not merely be able to say “I told you so” after a loss.

    It’s true that last time Labor were at a disadvantage in trust – Abbott could just deny Labor’s guesses, make it a question of trust between Coalition and Labor, and people would believe him and not them – and this time Abbott has his own trust problems. However it’s still smarter to pit Abbott against Abbott on trust, rather than party against party, because with the former, Abbott can only lose.

    Though I think Labor politicians themselves should try to stick to as positive/constructive a message as possible (and personally mention Abbott as little as possible) because they still have their own bridge to build between themselves and the electorate.

Comments Page 6 of 8
1 5 6 7 8

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *