The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average looks like the only poll we’ll be getting this week, as its rivals hold their fire ahead of tonight’s budget. The poll has ticked a point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, bringing Labor’s lead down to 52-48. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady), 11% for the Greens (up one) and 1% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured are monthly leadership ratings, which find Tony Abbott continuing to improve – he’s up three on approval to 36%, and down four on disapproval to 54%. Bill Shorten’s ratings are stable, with approval and disapproval both down a point to 32% and 41%, which on recent form would be a relief for him. However, Abbott now leads as preferred prime minister, Shorten’s 35-32 a lead of month ago having reversed.
As Joe Hockey prepares to bring down his second budget, the poll shows that his ratings too are slightly less bad than they were, with approval on 30% and disapproval on 48%, respectively up three and down three compared with the last time the question was asked in March. He is now clearly ahead of Chris Bowen on trust to handle the economy, his 26-25 lead opening to 30-22, with “don’t know” still running extremely high. The poll also finds support for the government’s tighter assets test on pensions – 56% in favour, with 30% opposed.
[The reason some of you think I am a troll is that I don’t wholeheartedly agree with everything you think.]
Not all of us think you’re a troll.
[ When have I used Bolt or Lomborg as a source? ]
You compared yourself to them. Do you think you have the same degree of credibility as they have, or not?
kakuru @ 964
“My OH was issued her own ABN at her last job. In her current job she works in multimedia.
We’re also in the market for a big-screen TV. Just sayin’.”
Simply having an ABN would mean nothing. OH would need to be activily running a small business, as evidenced by submitting BAS returns.
[Darn
…Don’t know where you get that from ML. If they don’t get the three or four percent (2pp) they need to get back comfortably in front from the budget where is it going to come from?]
IMO if an election had been held last Saturday, Abbott would have won.
I am not trying to be critical of Bludgertrack, I love it. The point is that Bludgertrack is accurately summarising the results provided by potential voters when asked a question by a pollster.
What will actually happen in an election, what will happen when you factor in the Sophomore effect, when you factor in the narrowing of election campaigns and the fact that a 4% lead only gets the ALP 3 seats into government…..things are pretty good for the LNP.
I suspect the Abbott government will be in a better position in a couple of months….which is bad because Turnbull is screwed by that…..but there it is.
Did I hear correctly that North Korea executed one of their generals with an anti aircraft gun because he fell asleep at a military parade. 😯
Sometimes I wonder whether Kim has all his marbles.
mikehilliard
Been a popular activity for Kim this year. Many high rankings getting the chop by that and other gruesome methods.
I’m not saying all small business is dodgy but heh, we all know there are plenty who are.
the GST was supposed you get rid of the cash economy … Not from want I hear.
When my mum was getting a quote for some tree lopping last year she was asked if she wanted the morning price or the afternoon price.
The afternoon price was the cash price.
The idea that a small businessman with a network of mates couldn’t organise a dodgy invoice so that the TV for the family room is listed as a new computer is wonderland stuff
PvO still unhappy today, claiming Hockey’s 2nd budget is surrender: to the opposition, the Senate, voters and nervous backbenchers. He also picks up on something Hockey claimed, which at the time he said it made me laugh for the same incredulous reasons:
[Hockey’s delusion that reform is under way, however, saw him utter the following words last night: “The economic plan laid down by this government more than a year ago is in place and it is helping us deal with these challenges.”
How? By osmosis? That plan included a shelved Medicare
co-payment, dumped changes to pension indexation, a higher education package twice blocked by the Senate and Family Tax Benefit cutbacks yet to be passed.
An economic plan already in place? He must be joking.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/budget-2015/budget-2015-this-is-not-leadership-it-is-surrender/story-fntfa2d0-1227352586370
Happiness
There were rumours that the “natives were getting restless” amongst the elite a while back. After that the Kim family paranoia gene has kicked in.
[IMO if an election had been held last Saturday, Abbott would have won.]
While I don’t think one could make such a prediction with any confidence, I do agree that the situation is slightly more favourable for the Coalition than Labor right now.
However, I think that, if the Coalition wins, it will be with a slim majority, with a chance of it being in a hung parliament.
rossmcg:
I got my laptop at a much cheaper rate at Harvey Norman a couple of years ago because I offered to pay cash.
Not just tradies working cash deals.
God I’d love Abbott to have a hung parliament to contend with! He’d be replaced as leader for sure.
And of course anyone with half decent computer skills can up with invoices and receipts for things that have never been bought.
Maybe not a ute …
Honest people would be amazed at the things dishonest people do.
Its better for businesses if they receive cash because:
1. They have the money straight away
2. They have the money, not the price minus the credit card fee
Re Mikehillard @1056: the story was on the ABC. It said the reason for his execution was believed to be that he ‘failed to show respect for the leader’.
[God I’d love Abbott to have a hung parliament to contend with!]
I would too, just to simply watch him and his supporters justify what they were calling ‘illegitimate government’ a few years back!
poroti
[Kim family paranoia gene] 😆
No chance Robb will be heading off there to knock up an FTA then?
Happiness
True, my car service man doesn’t take cards. He is happy to trust me to pay on line and save himself a fee.
but that is not the cash discount we are talking about here.
It seems that PPL is no longer a ‘workplace entitlement’.
Wonder how Speaker BBishop would cope with a hung parliament/minority govt.
[Carey Moore
Posted Wednesday, May 13, 2015 at 8:43 pm | PERMALINK
God I’d love Abbott to have a hung parliament to contend with!
I would too, just to simply watch him and his supporters justify what they were calling ‘illegitimate government’ a few years back!]
Yes. Karma can be a real bitch.
[ Wonder how Speaker BBishop would cope with a hung parliament/minority govt. ]
Don’t worry – Sophie Mirabella will be back by then, and I’m sure she can cope with a well hung parliament.
Happiness
Plato described Socrates as a gadfly.
This two second video made me laugh 😀
https://mobile.twitter.com/AshGhebranious/status/598435598983016448/video/1
Yes, I thought it was a compliment dressed up as a slur so I added you to my thanks list. However, there is a chance it was a slur dressed up as a compliment!
:devil:
1072 – she would not be speaker in that event
[Been a popular activity for Kim this year. Many high rankings getting the chop by that and other gruesome methods.]
The demise of some of those people is a bit iffy. The source is inevitably South Korea and they don’t get it right all the time.
Kim’s ex-girlfriend was meant to have been executed a year ago and she was on live TV a few weeks ago.
North Korea is to secretive and so little gets out that it’s really had to know who Kim’s actually executed but he’s certainly very trigger-happy. An anti-aircraft gun wouldn’t leave much to bury.
Saudi Arabia beheaded some foreigners last week and hung the bodies from a helicopter and flew it around.
The only way for a Lib to survive here is to engage in little innocent trolling occasionally 🙂
I was wondering just that….who would Abbott try to convince to be Speaker if he won with a minority position?
Palmer?
Katter?
McGowan?
I reckon they would try for Wilkie, he might just take it.
[1072 – she would not be speaker in that event]
Definitely not.
UK: Sound familiar?
[Your MP’s pay is probably going to rise a lot faster than yours this year
Public sector wages are capped but MPs’ pay is set to soar
The Conservatives have also pledged to cap public sector pay increases at 1 per cent, meaning many working in public services will be left even further behind.
But the announcement comes as MPs are set to get a £7,000 – or 10.9 per cent – pay rise this year, from £67,000 to £74,000.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/your-mps-pay-is-probably-going-to-rise-a-lot-faster-than-yours-this-year-10246162.html
ML:
I haven’t watched much if any parliament of late, so couldn’t even begin to guess which way those MPs vote most. From what zoomster has posted here, it seems McGowan votes most with the govt, and I’d imaging Katter and Palmer do too.
That leaves Wilkie.
McGowan would be my pick.
[Happiness
Posted Wednesday, May 13, 2015 at 9:05 pm | PERMALINK
I was wondering just that….who would Abbott try to convince to be Speaker if he won with a minority position?
Palmer?
Katter?
McGowan?
I reckon they would try for Wilkie, he might just take it.]
Definitely not Wilkie. Abbott wouldn’t give it to anyone who would want to play the game fairly.
davidwh:
McGowan may not be in the next parliament.
Diogenes
As horrible as the place may be many of the horror stories from their enemies are definitely in the “allegedly” file.
True Fess but I couldn’t consider either of the other two.
Just curious is there anyone who thinks you can say a certain activity is a fraud and a rort and then deny you have called those doing the activity fraudsters and rortors?
I just don’t see how you could say one and deny the second.
davidwh@1089
I doubt Palmer will be there. He may not even re-contest.
WeWantPaul@1090
You’re the lawyer, you tell us. 😐
Would anyone from the ALP do a slipper?
David Leyonhjelm says the crossbench’s cooperation with government is ‘likely to cease’ if plan to change Senate voting rules go ahead
Maybe Tony & Joe should just put up their feet & forget about doing anything before the next election.
Cross bench will oppose all measures now & if they go for a DD they will have an even bigger problem ( should they win).
Wayne Swan 🙂
Re WWP @1090: Abbott and Co know that they can say any old crap and it will be dutily reported by the mainstream media with little or no checking and without challenge, while the Murdochracy will actively support and push it if required.
[You’re the lawyer, you tell us. :|]
I don’t get it, it is like saying you called stealing a crime, but didn’t call someone who stole a criminal. One must mean the other.
Abbott’s argument seems to be that you can’t called someone a liar unless you say ‘you are a liar’. But if you say that everything they say is untrue then you have called them a liar. Maybe some people will be too dumb to get that you have called them a liar.
It is beyond tricky with words, it is just dumb untruth.
WWP
[I just don’t see how you could say one and deny the second.]
Flexible spin-doctor methodology.
This budget is a winner for the Coalition.
Just enough sweetners for the middle class with just a dash of cuts for double dippers which helps wedge Labor and a sprinkling of optimism for returning to surplus.
Brilliant.
WeWantPaul@1097
You’re catching on. 😉
Rich Double Dipping mums are not fraudsters or rorters… they were just taking advantage of a Labor Government loophole that allowed mothers on $150K a year to double dips from the Aussie Taxpayer.
This has been closed now by the Coalition Government