Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be one of the final results from the Newspoll organisation finds both major parties down on the primary vote, but with Labor’s two-party preferred lead slightly up on the previous result.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has come in with Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the last result three weeks ago, and also the previous result a fortnight before that. Both major parties are down slightly on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 39% and Labor by one to 35%, with the Greens up one to 12%. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to recover, his approval rating up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 56%. Bill Shorten’s are stable after trending downwards for some time, with approval up a point to 34% and disapproval down one to 50%. Reflecting the primary vote, both leaders record lower this time on preferred prime minister, recording a 38-38 tie after Shorten led 41-40 last time out. It was also announced today by The Australian that Newspoll as we know it will shortly be coming to an end, with the company that has conducted it since 1985 to be wound up and the poll series hence forth to be conducted by Galaxy, albeit still under the Newspoll brand.

Also out today was the fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS poll, compiled over two weekends of polling from a sample of 3035. This put the Coalition’s primary vote at 40%, up 1.5% from a fortnight ago, with Labor and the Greens both down half a point, to 37.5% and 11.5% respectively, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. A more favourable flow of preferences this time out nonetheless resulted in Labor gaining slightly on the respondent-allocated result, their lead up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, while the previous election preferences result had the lead subsiding from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change of any kind in Essential Research this week, unless you count a one point drop for Palmer United – the primary votes are Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 1%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Among the other questions are a finding that 40% approve and 42% disapprove of “some form of action” against Indonesia over the Bali nine executions, while 26% believe the government’s handling of relations with Indonesia has been good versus 42% for poor. The poll finds 35% indicating some or a lot of trust in the Abbott government’s handling of international relations, compared with 58% for little or no trust, which is respectively up two and down four since the question was last asked at a lower point in the Coalition’s polling fortunes in February. A question on the importance of close relations with various countries yields no significant change since February, with the United States, China and United Kingdom rated highest. The poll also finds 43% in support of subsidies for nannies, with 31% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,161 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 24
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  1. There is one possible motive for an early election – to go before the country enters recession. If they do not fix the budget mess this time, we will be in one within a year.

    Speaking of financial motivations, BK raises a good question about the selling of the Medical Journal of Australia to Elsevier by the AMA. Why? This involves a huge transfer of intellectual property, and Elsevier charges extortionate rates to access old journal articles. Is the AMA broke? Who gets the fee income? How much is Elsevier paying? To whom? Answers needed here.

  3. [If they do not fix the budget mess this time, we will be in one within a year.]

    That’s a pretty seriously scary thought. I sincerely hope it doesn’t happen.

  4. Good Morning

    Socrates

    Another reason for an early election. Government as been a disaster for this mob. They need to reset and the only way they can really do that is with an election.

    If they win they get confidence and more pressure for their agenda to have the senate block less. If they lose its a good chance for renewal and to get rid of the grip of the ideological right has on the party so they can return to the centre as a party and actually be electable.

    The LNP has learnt one thing. Australians will not accept their radical right wing agenda that has become crystal clear. So some in the party may be wanting an election sooner rather than later to save the party future for the long term.

  5. Good to see Shorten can sleep a little easier at night thanks to Abbott and Morrisons stop the boats policy.

    There is going to be much internal Labor fighting (as always) in the lead up to the election which should help tighten the polls even more.

    It’s a bit like whack-a-mole for Bill Shorten.

    Plebesek pops her head up shouting “Gay Marriage” – WHACK!

    Melissa Parke and Anna Burke “Lets soften the boatpeople laws!” WHACK! WHACK!

    Shorten has to try and keep it together to try and convince Australians that Labor are not a far left party but it becomes hard when he has so many of his colleagues popping their heads up.

  6. Spot the company angling to go for imported 457 labor. They are offering new workers a 56 hour per week 12 weeks on 1 week off roster. “We can’t get the locals guv, honest”.

    [Port Hedland FIFOs face new nightmare roster

    Queensland-based Goodline……….He said a 12-and-1 roster completely ignored evidence given to a parliamentary inquiry into FIFO suicides.

    “The inquiry identified that the length of swings away from home was a major factor contributing to poor mental health outcomes,” he said.

    “Four-and-one is known across the industry as the divorce roster. We hope Goodline’s anti-worker 12-and-one swings don’t become known as the new suicide roster,” he said. ]

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/port-hedland-fifos-face-new-nightmare-roster-20150503-1myq0j.html

  7. [It’s a bit like whack-a-mole for Bill Shorten.

    Plebesek pops her head up shouting “Gay Marriage” – WHACK!

    Melissa Parke and Anna Burke “Lets soften the boatpeople laws!” WHACK! WHACK!]

    It would be hard to find two issues most Australians care less about. The boat people must be losing the Libs as many votes as it gets them (and they are getting the racist scum and losing decent middle Australians).

  8. An interest rate cut today will be a vote of no confidence in the upcoming unseen budget.

    An assumption the budget will not increase confidence employment and general economic activity.

  9. [“It would be hard to find two issues most Australians care less about. The boat people must be losing the Libs as many votes as it gets them (and they are getting the racist scum and losing decent middle Australians).”]

    You are wrong there.

    All polling shows that those wanting softer laws are well within the minority.

    Even Bill Shorten recognises Morrison and Abbotts great success on stopping the boats… now he just has to try and convince Aussies he won’t fluff it up and restart the boats like they did last time. Hard sell.

  10. “@drkerrynphelps: Alan Joyce: Australia will soon be the only English speaking country in the developed world that does not have #MarriageEquality”

  11. poroti:

    I saw that reported the other day. Amazingly the company is insisting that offering those rosters will mean that families relocate to Port Hedland and the employee becomes a locally based rather than FIFO.

  12. TBA,

    Polls may show that boat arrivals are a top of mind response by respondents. However, Abbott and Morrison have dominated the space since they took office. Despite this domination, Labor has increased it’s two party preferred vote by between 5 and 6 points since the last election.

    Maybe that tells you that people have either moved on or didn’t really cast their vote based on this issue. Labor has apparently neutralised the issue as a vote loser and yesterdays announcement further beefs up their ‘tough on boats’ credentials.

    It will be a mistake if the Libs campaign on this issue in any election in the near future. Voters tend to vote about the future and specifically their economic future at elections.

    Watching the Libs do a triumphalist victory lap on the issue will only see them lose votes.

  14. lizzie

    [That is such a sensible idea that there’s no way it will happen.]

    They’d go down a treat in the Tiwi Islands but I guess there’s no votes in it.

  15. confessions

    If they move there they better be able to afford to buy their own home. Checked out a real estate page and median rents in Port Hedland are….

    [3 BR $1,200 PW

    4 BR $1,925 PW]

  16. victoria@7

    That article you posted on the Tesla battery (http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/tesla-battery-storage-will-accelerate-exit-of-coal-generators-88203) is very dodgy. And it links to another article by the same author that is even worse (http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/tesla-launches-home-business-and-utility-battery-storage-range-74034). I presume both articles were written for the Australian company that plans to sell them here.

    There are many incorrect assumptions about the pricing, some of which are pointed out in the comments below the second article.

    Bottom line is that you will not see Tesla-based systems in Australia at anywhere near the $US7000 mark. It will be more like double that. And in the US you can already buy a complete lead-acid based system of similar (7kwH) capacity for about US$7000, whereas Tesla wants to charge you that much just for the battery.

    The Tesla battery does dramatically lower the cost of lithium battery technology – and this is a much better technology than lead acid – but it does not yet make lithium competitive. Especially not for off grid systems.

    It’s a bit like the Tesla cars really – yes, they are fantastic pieces of technology, but only the ultra-rich can afford them.

  17. Oops – minor mistake in my last post …

    [ whereas Tesla wants to charge you that much just for the battery ]

    This bit is not true. But it is true that the Tesla battery is not cheaper than lead acid, and that the overall cost of a Tesla system will most likely be about the same or higher than a lead-acid based system, given the non-standard voltages it uses means you cannot buy “off the shelf” chargers or inverters.

  18. The fact the people say they have not heard of the power wielded by the Pharmacy Guild is a sign of how powerful it is.

    Its operatives work quietly and carry a big stick.

  19. rossmcg

    [Its operatives work quietly and carry a big stick.]

    The Pharmacy Guild less vocal than the AMA but more powerful.

  21. [What is the big stick the Pharmacy Guild uses to keep governments in line ?]

    Not squealing loudly to maintain their grip on the PBS.

  23. “@political_alert: Busy day ahead, #auspol watchers: New-look NSW & QLD Parliaments sitting, #springst Budget at 1.15pm, Reserve Bank rates decision at 2.30pm.”

  25. CTar1

    You sound right on the money going by these bits from rossmcg’s link.

    [“One of the secrets of effective lobbying is not to talk about it too much in public,” said Greg Turnbull, the group’s communications officer.]
    .
    [“There’s always been a fear that if they ran a campaign they could bring a government down,” ]

  27. “@political_alert: Shadow Families & Payments Minister Jenny Macklin will hold a doorstop interview in Launceston at 10.50am to discuss pension changes #auspol”

  28. GG @ 126

    Ah yes the Curious Snail… always with the news that matters.

    The Mail is going the way of the Daily Terror and the Hun here in Melbourne… irrelevancy is thy name.

  31. victoria

    The denizens of the Rupertarium must think it is important. Sky news also had a piece on it. How they knew it was a rip off belt was not mentioned.

  37. [Greensborough Growler

    Posted Tuesday, May 5, 2015 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Here’s a huge breaking story from Queensland.]

    This front page treatment of a non story was roundly mocked by the commercial radio breakfast jocks and the channel 9 political reporter I was listening to on the way to work. I’m not sure the CM has any credibility left so it probably can’t hurt them anymore but it is still laughable.

  39. [I wonder who’s pulling the strings here.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/04/medical-journal-of-australia-will-be-shunned-by-researchers-after-editor-sacked-academic-says

    The AMA obviously see their future as a professional lobby group rather than as academic publishers.

    From their website…

    [The AMA exists to promote and protect the professional interests of doctors and the health care needs of patients and communities.

    Advocacy

    The AMA advocates on behalf of its members at the Federal, and State and Territory levels by:

    working with governments to increase and maintain provision of world class medical care to all Australians

    tracking and reporting government performance on health policy, financing and services

    challenging governments on policy that potentially harms the interests of patients

    leading the health policy debate by developing and promoting alternative policies to those government policies

    providing informed, expert medical commentary on health issues

    responds to issues in the health debate through provision of a wide range of expert resources

    commissioning and conducting research on health issues]

  40. BK

    [
    Has any political leader said anything today about the 4 Corners story?]
    Just saw a bit of a Shorten presser. Main topic was proposed pension changes but he had a brief comment about it .Saying that people should not be able to be brought here on such visas and be exploited.

  42. Ace Investigative Reporter, Hedley Thomas, is in “dog with a bone”mode regarding Clive Palmer.

    Despite the case being thrown out, Hedley reckons the police will now want to have a chat with Mr Palmer. Apparently the judge stopped short of ruling on whether Palmer’s use of the $12 million was fraudulent, because when it was established Palmer wasn’t holding the money in trust (i.e. as part of a trust agreement), that was enough to dismiss the case.

    [Some will be scratching their heads after the narrow outcome of these civil proceedings. A wealthy politician helps himself to millions of dollars, spends it on private interests unrelated to a port, and allegedly “manufactures” a document after the fact to justify the withdrawals. Then he pays the money back — and says he did nothing wrong. Does it pass the sniff test. It falls to police to clear it up once and for all.]

    Hedley loves the cops getting involved in his little projects. He won’t let the Gillard matter go either. Hedley told us last week that Ralph Blewitt is going to be charged and that he’s calling Julia Gillard as a witness… presumably for the defence, or else she’d be a “hostile witness” wouldn’t she? Somehow I don’t think “hostility” by Gillard towards Blewitt needs to be established.

    What could she possibly say to help Ralph? What could the cops possibly want to interview Palmer for? He took the money which the civil case was his to take. He spent it. And he paid it back.

    Only Hedley knows. He can sniff out a rat better than anyone else. It’s because The Australian naturally only employs the best journalists in the country, of course.

    Like the ones who revealed (as in, “It can now be revealed…”) that a Labor government minister wore a counterfeit belt, thus endangering the lives of children being used as slave labour, and associating with the criminal class.

    These would also be the same masters of their who are in agreement that…

    [The public — and the media — are running out of patience with Palaszczuk’s small-target stance.

    The honeymoon period is all but over, and with Parliament sitting today the Premier will have to convince voters they may the right choice in ousting the LNP.

    There will have to be more than platitudes in efforts to rein in debt, build new schools and cut hospital waiting lists that are already blowing out since the ALP came to power.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/cage-fight-time-for-annastacia-palaszczuk-to-walk-the-walk/story-fnihsr9v-1227334322025 ]

    Yes, it’s Day#1 of Parliament up Brisbane way, and the new premier hasn’t yet paved the streets with gold, or even set out the agenda for her next term…never mind about this one.

  46. BK

    Should I have added smug, secretive, overbearing? I wouldn’t like to insult the man. After all, Sophie admires him.

  47. Lizzie

    i wonder what portfolio Sophie has her eye on when she returns to Parliament and her man Scott is PM

    Something where she can emulate his mean and nasty streak no doubt

  48. A modern day lament, in the style of Banjo Paterson…

    [ I had written him a text
    Which I’d sent, hoping the next
    Time he came in mobile coverage
    He’d have time to say hello.
    But I’d heard he’d lost his iPhone,
    So I emailed him from my phone,
    Just addressed, on spec, as follows:clancy@theoverflow

    And the answer – redirected –
    Wasn’t quite what I’d expected
    And it wasn’t from the shearing mate
    Who’d answered once before.
    His ISP provider wrote it
    And verbatim I will quote it:
    ‘This account has been suspended:
    You won’t hear from him no more.’

    In my wild erratic fancy
    Visions come to me of Clancy:
    Out of reach of mobile coverage
    Where the Western rivers flow.
    Instead of tapping on the small screen,
    He’d be camping by the tall green
    River gums – a pleasure
    That the town folk never know.

    Well, the bush has friends to meet him
    But the rest of us can’t greet him:
    Out there, even Telstra’s network
    Doesn’t give you any bars.
    He can’t blog the vision splendid
    Of the sunlit plains extended
    Or tweet the wondrous glory
    Of the everlasting stars.

    I am sitting at the keyboard
    And I’m too stressed out to be bored
    As I answer all the emails
    By the deadlines they contain
    While my screen fills with promotions
    For ‘Viagra’ and strange potions
    And announcements of the million-dollar
    Prizes I can claim.

    But the looming deadlines haunt me
    And their harrying senders taunt me
    That they need response this evening
    For tomorrow is too late!
    But their texts, too quickly ended,
    Often can’t be comprehended
    For their writers have no time to think –
    They have no time to wait.

    And I sometimes rather fancy
    That I’d like to trade with Clancy:
    Just set up an email bouncer
    Saying ‘Sorry, had to go.’
    While he faced an inbox jamming
    Up with deadlines and with spamming
    As he signed off every message:
    clancy@theoverflow

    Written by Joe Wolfe,
    with apologies to Banjo Patterson
    and his Clancy of the Overflow.     ]

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