The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan finds Labor improving from an unusually weak result last time, their primary vote up two points to 38% with the Coalition down two to 38.5%. The Greens and Palmer United are both down half a point, to 12% and a new low of 1% respectively. However, the respondent-allocated two-party result is steady at 53-47, the preference flow evidently being less favourable to Labor compared with a fortnight ago, and the shift on 2013 preference flows is also rather modest, from 53-47 to 54-46. As usual, the poll was conducted over two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, the sample on this occasion being 3314. I believe this and the regular Essential poll are the only federal polling we’ll be seeing this week.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The only change in Essential Research’s voting intention numbers this week are a one point gain for the Greens to 11% and a one point drop for Palmer United to 1%, leaving Labor on 39%, the Coalition on 41% and Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. Further questions have been framed with the looming budget in mind, the most striking finding being that 56% believe the Coalition’s policies favour the rich over the “average Australian” (20%), with Labor scoring a fairly balanced response over the available options. Relatedly, it is anticipated that the budget will be good for the well off (49% good, 9% bad) and business (32% good, 17% bad), but very bad for everybody else and for the economy overall (19% good, 33% bad). Eighty-two per cent of respondents signed on to the proposition that “some companies” and “some wealthy people” didn’t pay their fair share of tax. Out of seven listed economic issues, the cost of living rated highest as an issue of concern (87%) with the national debt and budget deficit tied for last place (63%). Opinion on the latest Iraq commitment is fairly evenly balanced, with 40% approval and 44% disapproval.
Barney in Saigon@711
Not only that, I just ate, so world hunger is a thing of the past, and not only that, it’s cold outside in Armidale, so global warming is a myth!
Looks like Labors blown the 2016 election with the great big new super tax. that chris Bowen is he a fifth columnist for the Libs ?
dtt,
The reason you are mocked on PB is because you provide so much material.
Whether it is the end of human kind because of Ebola by your simple and simplistic extrapolations, whether it be you commandeering Zoomsters arguments and telling her she’s wrong because she doesn’t accept the arguments she has actually articulated and whether it be your strange arguments about other posters lacking basic English comprehension skills while your posts are littered with spelling and grammatical errors.
Please provide us more of this fear/anxiety/worrisome contribution.
I just laugh and laugh and laugh.
ESJ,
Won’t be hard to sustain an argument that the slackers must pay their fair share.
Who knows, you might have to pay tax yet.
Finally the ALP has put the super in the spotlight – about bloody time. I’ve been very fortunate to have had a job for 36 years with one institution (yes, I’m one of those nasty business bankers and have been in the role for 25 years in providing finance to small business and don’t deal with large corporates and businesses) and have accumulated around $1m in super but I fully agree with it being taxed. It was a woeful policy instigated by Howard and Costello. I’m one iof the unusual ones and vote ALP and am a member of the union.
[I just laugh and laugh and laugh.]
It’s the Chicken Little aspect that amuses me.
Oh, and have been contributing 12.5% of my salary plus the Nab’s contribution and not exceeding the $25k cap each year.
So if your superannuation account generates $76,000 in a year, you pay one hundred and fifty dollars in tax instead of zero?
How is that a crippling burden?
What percentage of superannuation accounts generate more than %75,000 in a year.
French economist Thomas Picketty suggests the following rule of thumb for distinguishing between the ultra-rich, the rich, the well-off, the middle class, and the lower classes.
The top 0.1 percent of households in the wealth distribution are the ultra-rich.
Those between the 0.1 and 1st percentiles are rich.
Those between the 1st and 10th percentiles are well-off.
Those between the 10th and 50th percentiles are the middle class.
The bottom half of the wealth distribution are the lower classes.
A lot of people want to identify culturally with the middle class even though they don’t truly belong to it. I think we have to resist the idea that households in the top 10 percent of the wealth distribution are merely middle class.
Nicholas,
You are (sometimes) not as dim as you sim.
It’s going to be so hard for Abbott, the Gallery and other assorted brain dead boosters for the Libs to run the argument that Shorten and Labor have no policies and are running a small target strategy, concurrently with running the ‘Great Big New Tax’ scare campaign about Labor’s commitment to Carbon Pricing, Taxing multinationals, and winding back Costello’s super stupidity.
Hard, but you can be sure they’ll give it a red hot crack.
Kirky
You are one of the good uns. 🙂
Re: so-called “NBN” rollout – I’ve gone from being in the final negotiations to host an NBN tower on the back of my 2.5 ha property, to “no plans for NBN in your locality”
Incredible really – 6 months of negotiations, close to signing, then the election was called and I never heard again from anybody involved. It was as if none of it had ever happened.
Heard on ABC radio that Ch.7 and Ch.9 have more or less cancelled their live coverage from Anzac Cove due to ‘viewer fatigue’ amongst other reasons.
Oh dear, Fraudband future:
http://www.theage.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/sydney-weather-how-storms-slow-the-internet-20150422-1mql6c.html
I heard today that the arrival of Netflix has sucked up 25% of our current Broadband capacity.
Looks like a bad NBN arising.
Thanks for the link to the updated NBN site whoever that was. A quick check seems to reveal that both my current address and my new address from late next year are both in areas that were obviously too far along the process for Malcolm to stuff up as both are slated for FTTP! from Mar 16. Yeah baby!
Zoid
Bowen was fairly clear that changes to the negative gearing regime will not be retrospective
When it is announced it will not affect existing arrangements.
I read a piece the other day that people thinking of jumping into the Sydney market soon hoping for a capital gain in three to five years should bear this in mind . The buyers might not be there when they go to sell.
Bernard Keane on twitter
[Labor’s super policy leaves the Coalition & News Corp isolated as the only opponents of fixing a broken system]
ratsak
[ quick check seems to reveal that both my current address and my new address from late next year are both in areas that were obviously too far along the process for Malcolm to stuff up as both are slated for FTTP!]
I get not scheduled (not a surprise as it’s in a solid Labor voting electorate).
GG, Turnbull’s future reputation as one of Australia’s biggest buffoons is secure. Whilst we might not know exactly what applications are going to come along to demand the sort of capacity only fibre can provide, we can be damn sure they will come and will be probably be widely demanded long before Mal’s fraudband is even finished being delivered.
vic,
This Federal Government would be best advised to avoid people that vocally support them. It will only lead to further grief for them.
ratsak,
Malcolm’s cock up in Telecommunications means he needs to be kicked upstairs to the Lodge in order to hide the evidence.
@ratsak
My parents place is still broadband ghost town with pockets of HFC available – thankfully live in one).
@rossmsg
Ahh the good old “only effect new customers” ticket.
That’s not fixing the system, that is gaining the system.
Sorry to hear it Ctar1. It is an injustice that some of the dropkicks that voted for this government will get proper broadband, and many who could see what a disaster they were long before they got themselves elected will be stuck in the slow lane.
[“I dont like Bowen much, but he’s presenting pretty well today.”]
Everything Bowen ever touched turned to shit.
His boatpeople policy. His couple of Gigs as Treasurer.
I mean this guy is the lowest altitude flyer of the Labor Party. He has to be.
TBA,
You know the most about “goat people”, don’t you!
GG
Meanwhile in the UK, Rupert’s influence is waning
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/general-election-2015-if-rupert-murdoch-cant-swing-it-for-the-tories-he-will-lose-his-grip-over-britain-10193467.html
vic,
You saw the nonsense run by the Herald Sun and Courier Mail during the recent elections. You fretted continually about News saying nasty things about Labor. I’d say the reality is we’ve passed peak Murdoch and the alleged Emperor of influence is in serious decline.
Joe no show for razor gang meeting
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-show-joe-lashed-for-missing-key-budget-razor-gang-meeting-20150422-1mqqm2.html
[Labor’s super policy leaves the Coalition & News Corp isolated as the only opponents of fixing a broken system]
Long may the coalition continue to speak directly to the fringes, and angle their policies towards that group. 🙂
GG
No doubt the dynamics have changed.
Yup Chris Bowen aka Mr Fuel Watch – he’s the one you want to be selling new taxes.
When will they ever learn?
I can see the ads – lots of worried old people having shopping money taking out of their hands by the ATO and forced to eat PAL to make ends meet.
ESJ,
I’m sure Annabelle Crabbe will have appropriate recipes covered on her next television series.
ATO can’t do shit even if they were ordered to EDJ.
Heck they can’t even find the money Corporates shift overseas even with ASIO HELP.
[“Yup Chris Bowen aka Mr Fuel Watch – he’s the one you want to be selling new taxes.
When will they ever learn? “]
How many drowned on his watch again? He holds the record it must make him quite proud.
I wouldn’t put him in charge of a milk float he’d crash it into the nearest tree.
ESJ
Tax the rich and tax the multinationals seems sound policy to me.
The alternative is to shaft pensioners, war veterans, students, the sick, the disadvantaged by cutting the safety net which makes us a First World country.
And for disclosure, I would be likely paying extra super tax .
ratsak
[Sorry to hear it Ctar1.]
Hopefully in 2 years we’ll be back to sensible govt and I’ll get a proper connection.
Well TBA it’s what make me thinks Bowen is a Liberal secret agent.Labor always stuffs up on his watch.
This super thing smells of Medicare Gold – a dopey idea only a sheltered Labor hack would think was smart and popular. Its going to hang the Labor party i’m afraid.
[ I can see the ads – lots of worried old people ]
Created by duplicitous economic illiterates and aimed at the fearful morons that make up their voter base.
Sacre bleu imacca – election ads are sneaky and duplicitous? i never knew!
“Buddy can you spare me a dime ? I’m down to my last $2 million in my super fund”
[ i never knew ]
Being a Liberal slimebag drone, i’m sure you dont care.
ESJ,
I believe you are suffering from premature prevarication.
China more energy efficient than Australia?
http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/a-surprising-map-of-the-most-energy-efficient-countries
But our carbon ‘tax’ killed investment, didn’t you know?!
ESJ
[i never knew!]
That I am prepared to believe.
Well GG as you know my view was and is that Abbott would be rolled before Sept.
What’s next Labors going to extend the CGT to family homes worth more than $5m ?
The weekly with Charlie Pickering is a tepid insipid version of Mad As Hell.
COME BACK SHAUN MICALLEF!!!!!!
ESJ,
That is just one of your fantasies?
ESJ,
Whether Abbott is rolled or not the facts are that this will be two Federal Budgets in a row which have disappeared without trace.
One lost Budget is an accident. But two is simply incompetence.
What’s Wrong with CGT on family homes worth $5 million. Wont affect many labor voters