The New South Wales election together with the Easter break have left the big media polls out of the picture recently, with Newspoll taking an extra week off, Ipsos last being heard from in late February, and a full two months having passed since the last result from Galaxy. That means the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is heavily influenced at the moment by Morgan and Essential, together with last week’s result from ReachTEL. This week’s result from Morgan was the Coalition’s best since October, making a full 1.0% of difference on the two-party reading and giving the Coalition a four-seat boost on the seat projection. Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns have also been added to the model, which means there’s more movement than usual this week at state level. Labor’s rather excessive projected gains in Queensland have been moderated to the tune of three, and they’re also off one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, while gaining one in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Added attractions:
• As I always do after Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns are published, I now offer a full suite of state-level BludgerTrack breakdowns featuring primary vote details and trend charts.
• Seat of the Week is back in new-and-improved form, and will henceforth be published every Wednesday evening concurrently with BludgerTrack. Today’s entry is Corangamite.
• In addition to the state breakdowns highlighted here the other day, The Australian has also published quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by gender and age.
• The Age reports that ReachTEL conducted polling of four marginal seats for United Voice, including a survey of 707 respondents in Eden-Monaro that credited Labor with a lead of 57-43. There was also said to be a “swing to Labor” in Bonner (Queensland), Hindmarsh (South Australia) and Swan (Western Australia), though I’m unclear if that means they were in front. (UPDATE: The West Australian reports the Swan result gives Labor a 54.7-45.3 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of 40.1% Liberal, 37.2% Labor and 10.5% Greens – hat-tip to Leroy Lynch).
imacca
Hear hear.!
Briefly
Although you are persistently abusive to me i still take time to reason with you as you are supposedly one of the smarter posters here.
However if you can openly give silly, snide replies I will disregard you as I do most of the other ignorant posters.
Now I do not agree with much of your economics or your politics, but try not to behave like Tony Abbott and other juvenile schoolboys and reply with courtesy.
Now do I think Greek sovereignty should be for sale? That is a matter for Greece not me. Like any decision I guess it depends upon the value received. I imagine long term lease of ports would be attractive to both parties.
Do I think Australian ports should be for sale or lease? NO but we have not got huge debts.
Every country implicitly puts bits of itself on the market to the highest bidder. we have for Darwin and Pine Gap. Not sure we got a good price, but the principle is EXACTLY the same
ratsak – I’m not arguing for a special handout for WA. I do think the current circumstances show that the process is not responsive enough to big changes in commodity prices.
The process needs integrity. Returning 37c per dollar collected obviously reflects exceptional circumstances that no longer apply – I think it’s reasonable to suggest that the process should be changed to be more responsive given it is producing the current inequitable outcome.
Several people here are using this as an opportunity to express schadenfreude over Barnett’s plight. I can understand that, but it doesn’t wash as an argument with me. We need to set up our systems to be as fair and as functional as possible – the equalization process has driven itself into an absurd extreme case that to my mind shows that the process needs to be fixed.
BH@143
Here you are, far more authoritative than my memory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Pallas
He is a short stocky man but has a much more commanding presence than his physical size would suggest.
I think he will do very well as Treasurer.
[If you have a Macand have updated OSX your data allowance could have been done because the new photo programme automatically uploads all your photos to Icloud.]
Thanks for the warning.
The whole GST is the states tax was always a crock, and set up that way to put some of the tax collection pain onto the states. Abbott is now doing exactly what the GST was designed for and wedging the states to ask for more GST by cutting funding for health and education.
[wedging the states to ask for more GST by cutting funding for health and education.]
Except that he has done it in such a patently incompetent and maladroit way that the general public see it and the squaddies in the mainstream media and the economics establishment can’t cut through with their orthodox propaganda.
This is true. But we do have a general Federal/State problem with what amounts to a random set of taxes that each has ended up “owning”. The GST being a Federal tax “assigned” to the States is no more perverse than why payroll tax is a State tax and income tax is a Federal tax (yes, yes, I know that technically the States could levy income tax if they were bolshy enough, but in practical terms that fight was lost a long time ago whatever nonsense the Commission of Audit might have thrown up).
Now, really, I see that mish-mash as coming down to the fact that the States have no natural basis. Arbitrary lines drawn on a map that have no particular relevance anymore. Local government makes sense. Federal government makes sense. The States … abolish them I say, but I realize that ain’t going to happen so we have to muddle along.
[151
daretotread
Do I think Australian ports should be for sale or lease? NO but we have not got huge debts.]
Debt held in the Australian economy (vis-a-vis GDP) is not dissimilar to debt held in the Greek economy. The difference is that the Australian State (and therefore the financial system) is solvent. The opposite is true of Greece.
If the people of Greece were determined to ensure the solvency of their State, they would not even be thinking of offering themselves for sale.
Their Premier has declared that Greece should not be thought of as a debtor state. Instead, he is prepared to make it into a hooker state.
Interesting that the Greek finance min father is the owner of one of the largest industrial conglomerates in Greece.
The google /apple/ Microsoft hearings just proof that tax is too high in this country. If Singapore can sustain a 17 per cent corporate rate you have to ask why can’t we ?
I once read someone say that John Howard’s big mistake with the GST was to give the money to the states for them to spend unfettered.
And spend they did.
In this particular example the author quoted the growth in state Government beaurcracies while the movement in Canberra was the other way.
But of course Howard had to do that it get the GST through and as with any flawed system it eventually comes apart. It might take a while, but it happens.
ABC 24: ” Ben Cousins hands himself in to WA Police”.
I wonder if this means he drove his car through the front doors of a police station …
[But be aware that when you first install it, it will drive you nuts for a few days asking for permission for everything in sight.]
Having just installed the demo, I’m going through that stage now!
Thanks to don for the link.
[160
Edwina StJohn
The google /apple/ Microsoft hearings just proof that tax is too high in this country. If Singapore can sustain a 17 per cent corporate rate you have to ask why can’t we ?]
The effective rate in Australia is not far from 17%, even though the nominal rate is 30%.
ESJ:
[If Singapore can sustain a 17 per cent corporate rate you have to ask why can’t we ?]
Are you really that dim?
Singapore’s population density is over 2000 times ours for a start.
GetUp is starting a campaign to introduce a Buffet Rule for wealthy individuals – that no matter what their deductions, they should pay a minimum % of income tax comparable to high PAYE earners.
https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/the-buffett-rule/buffett-rule/thank-you-please-share?t=8q8NXue9q
A great idea – incidentally the US has a minimum rate of tax for companies too. That is why ESJs point is such rubbish. The effective rate of tax actually paid by companies in the USA is higher than the Singapore rate quoted.
ESJ quoting Singapore is a pretty ironic example in a bad way. Singapore is a small island state with a comparatively low population and a very profitable government owned port that they did not sell off! So their budget is boosted by this government owned business income. A bit like how Australia might have been if the Liberal party did not keep selling off every government owned asset that makes money.
[Edwina StJohn
Posted Thursday, April 9, 2015 at 2:14 pm | Permalink
The google /apple/ Microsoft hearings just proof that tax is too high in this country. If Singapore can sustain a 17 per cent corporate rate you have to ask why can’t we ?
]
Let’s see;
Singapore Australia
area 718.3 km^2 7,692,024 km^2
population 5,469,700 23,803,100
Lots of country roads, regional infrastructure, plus we have a social security and health safety net that doesn’t exist in Singapore.
Sydney is about 15 times bigger than Singapore and has about 4.75 million people.
I don’t think you’re comparing apples with apples.
Just been listening to Andrew Bolt on the Chris Smith 2GB talkback show.
Bolt says that wanting large multinationals to pay their fair share of tax is just “class envy”: jealousy directed against successful companies and trail-blazing entrepreneurs who’ve done very-well-thank-youse and want to keep some of their profits.
He actually doesn’t call it “paying tax”. He calls it “making donations”.
As in…
“If a company chooses to make a donation, it’s their business to organize their affairs so that they can garner the maximum advantage, and thus reduce the donations they make.”
In a perverse sort of way it’s quite revealing on the part of Bolt. A “donation”, by definition, is a voluntary thing, something you can make depending on YOUR choice of what is worth donating to.
If a business “chooses not to make a donation” to a “Leftist” cause it doesn’t believe in, or any payment really, as long as the government is “Leftist”, then why should they?
The problem is, of course, that companies don’t seem to “choose” to make “donations” to right-wing governments, either.
Bolt’s solution is to slash pensions, payments to “Disability Bludgers”, Health, Education (and, at this point, round up the usual suspects)… and then to reduce taxes, so that companies might make “donations” more readily.
“We are spending vastly more than we earn,” says Bolt. So his answer is: don’t earn more, cut spending more.
Chris Smith, surely one of the dumbest talkback zombies, heartily agrees. It’s just Socialists masquerading as statesmen who want big corporations to pay taxes. Kerry Packer is quoted, saying “If I don’t think you’re using my taxes wisely, then why should I pay tax?”… from 25 years ago… as justification.
God knows whether the sheep who listen to 2GB – the pensioners and tradies who DO pay their taxes or who WILL suffer if their benefits are cut back – actually swallow any of this. As these lambs to the slaughter sit in their holding pens, wiling away the hours and the days until their turn with the humane killer (or – horror! – the Halal knife) comes, I wonder whether they take comfort from cheering for the Big Guys – the companies and rorters who shift their money around in sham transactions, transfer pricing and even more complicated share swap and dodgy money repatriation schemes (like News Ltd does) – and thus cause the cruellest and stupidest (and most gutless) government in history to turn on the very people who (by and large) voted for them?
There’s always the possibility that Bolt is just trying it on; that he’s just seeing how far he can venture into La-La Land, to see how many times he can orbit Planet Bizarro before someone has the temerity to phone in and tell him to f*ck off back into the cockroach hole he came from.
But the really scary part is that he may be serious. Take a second to digest that horrible thought.
Oh, and the Daily Telegraph today featured the “tech rorters” big time on their front page. Not a mention of the biggest tax rorter of all: themselves.
Meh… why should they? They bought a government, so they may as well bask in the benefits. Right? Otherwise, who knows what idiots like Hockey and Abbott might do with any paltry “donations” they may “choose” to make?
“Doing it for Australia”does have its limits, after all.
Post 121 Tom The first etc…Re Russian interests in Turkey,etc
________________
The the Russian and the Black Sea..
.any suggestion that they would want to control the waters leading from the Agean to the Black Sea,.is sheer nonsense
Since the Lausanne Treaty…the Dardenelles which were the site of many conflicta between several weatern powers and Czarist Russia…have a special status internationally
Our involvment at Gallipoli was part of this long saga
Vessels,even warships can transit through the passages linking the two seas,and as long as they don’t make landfall on the surrounding turkish coastline,they are exempt from any control by Turkey
I have been to Istanbul twice and the vast array of shipping that goes by is amazing,and it comes from all the Black Sea states,and v.v,and if one takes any of the ferries that criss-cross the harbour at Istabul you pass many huge vessels making a passage..a bit like Syney Harbour
Warships,as a courtesy give the Turks a few hours notice,but otherwise the waters there are like the High Seas
Russia profits from this and any Russian attempts to close the straits would be a breach of the Treaty and a warlike attack against the Turks…never since 1922 has there been every been any crisis in this regard…,and any attempt to alter this would be seen by the Turks as a warlike act
Those who suggest such ,display a real ignorance of how the world really works…least of all by Russia which depends on the system for so much of its trade…and the suggestion is sometimes linked to the current Russophobia often generated by the US neo-cons
[been listening to Andrew Bolt]
What a waste of time you’ll never get back.
Barney in Saigon@168
A key point that seems to be getting missed is that Singapore is engaging in predatory behaviour and effectively conspiring to rob the Australian Govt of tax revenue that should be collected in Australia from activities in Australia.
For Singapore, it is money they are collecting for just a little paper shuffling while the location of the economic activity gets nothing!
Any country behaving as a tax haven and predating on revenue rightly belonging to another country should be made an international pariah.
Briefly
It seems to me that Greece was taken for a fools ride by EU bankers, who would have KNOWN Greece could not pay. Sort of like an insurance salesman scamming pensioners for unnecessary products or old fashioned encyclopaedia salesmen.
Now without knowing the details it seems to me that the bankers/lenders who knowingly lent Greece more than it could afford to pay need to take a big haircut. So does Greece. Split the difference seems reasonable. Also cut the interest rate to one that is reasonable.
I think Greece may have a point re reparations. The fascist generals who ruled in Greece in the post war period did not do their job in recovering these agreed debts. Jewish families are still chasing debts for stolen property from WWII so I see no fundamental issue with Greece doing the same for debts owed. Germany is probably better getting some of the debts paid rather than none.
Given the location of Greece, and the odd game their rival Turkey is playing vis a vis ISIS and Syria, linking with Russia may be a wise move. If Turkey goes ISIS then Greece would have a very dangerous neighbour. Who would protect it? NATO?
[What a waste of time you’ll never get back.]
Was in the car, anyway. Nothing else to do but listen to The Power Station to find out whether there were any new advertisers whose products I could put on the “Never Buy” list.
From the Annals Of The Bleedin’ Obvious:
UBS… UBS… where have I heard that name before? Couldn’t be the bank that the NSW government hired to do a “business analysis” case for privatization, could it? Y’know, the ones who forgot to take business conditions into account?
Nah… must be my memory playing tricks on me.
Listening to 2GB’s Chris Smith on the day of the interest rate announcement, he breathlessly announced that as soon as the decision was made, Ross Greenwood would be on the line explaining the decision – whichever way it went.
Up, down or no change, you have to hand it to those economists. They ALWAYS have a glib word, or a glad hand to offer help to the hapless listeners… whichever way it goes.
And, of course, 2GB is never wrong. It’s handy to “analyse” the announcement after it’s made, of course, but the Power Station is uncannily correct, so often.
[been listening to Andrew Bolt]
I never had you down as a masochist BB!
BK,
How would you otherwise know not to ever buy a house from Champion Homes? Or to rub Pain Away on your lumbago back? Or to get a fang job from Sydney Dental Clinic, now using the fabulous Orlan-B process?
And let us not forget the dozens of other companies who promise that their rip-off loan is not a reverse mortgage, or that their furniture is guaranteed to last for a lifetime (easy, if the life expectancy of the usual 2GB fan is only 5 years)?
How would you be aware of the latest Liberal spin on anything from Disability Bludgers to privatized tollways to habeas corpus?
You have to take these things into consideration, you know.
That’s it BB, rationalise it all away.
The standard of living is higher in Singapore than Australia. It’s a very late 60s early 70s view of the world to see Singapore as backward.
EdStSjohn
A country like any business needs to set its budget for its needs before worrying about what other countries are doing.
I find it interesting that you find DSP a rort yet your reaction to large companies using Singapore as a way to reduce their tax bill as a sign that we need to lower our tax rates.
On another matter maybe its me but Treasuer Hockey in his press conference appears to not understand the difference between a contract price and a spot price but suggesting that the miners had moved from one to the other.
Surely he would understand the concept of forward contracts as a way of leveraging against changes in the price as well as the exchange rate.
I linked this audio of Tony Windsor with Richard Fidler earlier today. It runs for about 50 minutes, but highly recommended listening
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2015/04/08/4212632.htm
In all honesty, I DO confess reluctantly that, in my opinion, 2GB is streets ahead in production values of the inane games, quizzes and Wimmins Basket weaving Collective interviews you find on ABC radio. It’s easy to listen to…
HAVING SAID THAT…
I never buy the products they advertise, and I have never participated in any radio audience survey except once… where I lied and gave the ABC the gong for 8 hours listening per day (and 2GB nothing).
Having recently seen The Imitation Game I like to think of myself as one of those Bletchley WRENs or WAAFs, eavesdropping on enemy communications, perhaps even appreciating some of the personal touches of individual operators, BUT NEVER losing sight of just who the enemy is, and what must be done to rid the world of them.
Andrew Elder’s latest is a beauty:
[To give one recent example: a few days before the government introduced legislation that would imprison investigative journalists and their sources, “a range of people” decided that the image that best illustrated “the story” was one of the Prime Minister eating an onion. These people still control vast media resources and can direct journalists cover any number of stories – but they all decided the onion-eater image was the one that best prepared us for the coming of that legislation.]
vic
If ever you are going on a long road trip I would thoroughly recommend downloading a swag of Richard Fiedler’s podcasts. There is a rich selection.
[173
daretotread]
Greece’s private foreign creditors took their losses last time around. Right now, Greece is not in trouble with commercial loans but with official ones. If the were bargaining with private banks, they would have defaulted long ago.
Very sadly for Greece, after 5 years of hardship, by late 2014 their economy had started to grow, unemployment had begun to ebb and their fiscal position was in surplus. All of these gains have been lost since Syriza provoked the recent election. Fiscal revenues have fallen quickly, there has been capital flight, the labour market is weakening again; and economic and social distress are returning. This was not inevitable. Far from it.
As for Greece’s security position, along with Turkey, Greece is a NATO member. Along with its neighbours, Greece has been a contributor to and beneficiary of the collective security that has delivered 70 years of peace in Europe. Syriza are prepared to play games with this. Few things could be more disheartening to Greeks and their fellow European citizens.
[I linked this audio of Tony Windsor with Richard Fidler earlier today. It runs for about 50 minutes, but highly recommended listening]
Also well worth subscribing to the podcast.
Another thumbs up for both that Fidler-Windsor interview, and the whole interview series from Fidler.
ESJ – tired of comparing Singapore with Kenya, now compares it to Australia.
Not sure how you come at the 17% tax rate. Are you including the forced savings (sometimes up to 50%) in that?
17 per cent was reported on late line yesterday evening as the Singapore corp tax rate.
Greeks are slow learners briefly who are work and tax shy. Playing dare with the Germans is an extremely high risk strategy.
Don’t think the Germans haven’t used he last four years to prepare for Grexit.
MB capital is mobile and unfortunately we haven’t reached world government nirvana yet. Foreign governments like australian states compete on things like tax rates.
Is it wrong? Yes, is it avoidable? No
BK
Good idea!
[capital is mobile]
So is stupidity.
In your case ctar stupid is forever!
Money & ESJ: fungibility, or nasty yeast infection?
BB
You should try listening to 2CH, the only radio station anywhere in the world on which I have heard advertising for colostomy bags.
Though, on reflection, not that different to listening to Hadley and Jones advertising themselves.
[You should try listening to 2CH, the only radio station anywhere in the world on which I have heard advertising for colostomy bags.]
I spat a mouthful of red out when I read that, Pedant.
Then I reached over and poured myself a stiff Scotch, because I needed a drink after contemplating just what a colostomy bag advert might say…
Julian Tomlinson from the Cairns Post takes on the bigots at the Reclaim Australia rallys
[”
PEACEFUL: Reclaim Australia protesters peacefully share a joke at Sydney’s Martin Place o
PEACEFUL: Reclaim Australia protesters peacefully share a joke at Sydney’s Martin Place on Saturday. Picture: LISA MAREE WILLIAMS/GETTY IMAGES
IT was truly shocking to see the bigots in action at Reclaim Australia rallies around the country on Saturday.
They showed an ugly side to public protests which was confronting and disturbing.
But I’m not talking about the rally supporters, I’m describing those who turned up with the sole intention of ridiculing the rally participants, blocking the march and even burning the Australian flag.
The term “bigot” is one of the most misused.
FLARE UP: In Melbourne, what started as a peaceful Reclaim Australia rally, became violen
FLARE UP: In Melbourne, what started as a peaceful Reclaim Australia rally, became violent only when anti-racism protesters tried to forcibly disrupt the march. Picture: HAMISH BLAIR
It is most often mistakenly used to describe those with conservative or perceived outdated or “old-fashioned” views.
But it actually means anyone who is intolerable of others’ opinions and, judging by the scenes at the Reclaim Australia rallies, the Leftists are the true bigots.
Society today is being held to ransom by rabid, militant, self-styled “progressives” who use verbal abuse, public shaming, violence and viral social media campaigns to vilify anyone who espouses a dissenting view to their own and to push their politically-correct agenda.”]
Read more:
http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/opinion/reclaim-australia-rallies-expose-the-real-bigots-in-our-midst/story-fnjpuwl3-1227292951571
I know it sounds weird, but there’s one thing 2GB CAN do: and that’s put a punchy,commercial radio show together. Even if you’re not listening closely, it’s livelier than anything much that you hear on ABC daytime radio (except Richard Fidler’s interviews).
Fidler must be about the best interviewer in the country, bar none. He can be probing without being offensive or pseudo “hard hitting” (in the Leigh Sales fashion). He sounds warmly interested in his interviewees and it shows. He is respectful without being cloying or obsequious. He is never over-awed, or gushy, or just a fanboy.
He’s not the center of attention. He goes out of his way to move the emphasis back to his guests. It’s not about him. It’s about them, and what they have to say. He keeps his own views to himself.
He’s a better interviewer than Sales, or Jones or Uhlmann could ever be.
Australian radio, and Australian life is the richer for Richard Fidler.