The New South Wales election together with the Easter break have left the big media polls out of the picture recently, with Newspoll taking an extra week off, Ipsos last being heard from in late February, and a full two months having passed since the last result from Galaxy. That means the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is heavily influenced at the moment by Morgan and Essential, together with last week’s result from ReachTEL. This week’s result from Morgan was the Coalition’s best since October, making a full 1.0% of difference on the two-party reading and giving the Coalition a four-seat boost on the seat projection. Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns have also been added to the model, which means there’s more movement than usual this week at state level. Labor’s rather excessive projected gains in Queensland have been moderated to the tune of three, and they’re also off one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, while gaining one in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Added attractions:
• As I always do after Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns are published, I now offer a full suite of state-level BludgerTrack breakdowns featuring primary vote details and trend charts.
• Seat of the Week is back in new-and-improved form, and will henceforth be published every Wednesday evening concurrently with BludgerTrack. Today’s entry is Corangamite.
• In addition to the state breakdowns highlighted here the other day, The Australian has also published quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by gender and age.
• The Age reports that ReachTEL conducted polling of four marginal seats for United Voice, including a survey of 707 respondents in Eden-Monaro that credited Labor with a lead of 57-43. There was also said to be a “swing to Labor” in Bonner (Queensland), Hindmarsh (South Australia) and Swan (Western Australia), though I’m unclear if that means they were in front. (UPDATE: The West Australian reports the Swan result gives Labor a 54.7-45.3 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of 40.1% Liberal, 37.2% Labor and 10.5% Greens – hat-tip to Leroy Lynch).
Those Venezuelans. Everything was awesome before the left took over. Just ask the poor who vote for the left in droves because of the bullshit of the previous regime.
It’s a terrible pity for the poor of Venezuela that their champions have been so incredibly incompetent.
902
Exactly.
A bit off topic but of maybe interest to WA readers – allegedly the Saturday Paper is being rolled out to Perth newsagents in the next month or so. Got this second hand so I’m not sure about the timing but apparently it will just be over the counter at first (ie no home delivery). It’ll be a novel situation for Perth people to find that the Fin Review is no longer the most left-leaning paper available!
(That there is a cheap shot at the West but a deserved one. Though I’m not sure that the 15 year old boys who are apparently the state political journalists could explain what left wing means.)
Law enforcement currently use phone metadata during investigations. Thats great. Metadata in a circuit switched network is very different to metatdata in a packet switched network. Extrapolating the use of circuit switched metadata to packet switched metadata will not do you any good. You will just end up looking like a chump, like George did when he tried to explain the legislation that he gets to make regulations for to make “Internet Providers” store metadata.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Courageous to the very end I must say!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/accused-paedophile-with-links-to-robert-dolly-dunn-found-dead-three-days-before-sydney-trial-20150411-1miydx.html
What is the price tipping point for toll road usage?
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/how-much-is-too-much-for-sydney-toll-roads-20150411-1mif9l.html
Looks like Abbott is heading for a difficult round of negotiations on media ownership rules.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-to-meet-tv-executives-over-changes-to-media-ownership-20150411-1mj05f.html
Peter FitzSimons has a nice joke in this weekly column.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-you-are-loved-by-those-in-space-at-least-20150411-1miiuh.html
George Pell is without peer. Did he lie to the Royal Commission about his knowlege of the extent of child sexual abuse in the Catholic church?
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/catholic-church-abuse-claims-were-anticipated-years-before-allegations-were-made-20150411-1mix8a.html
Oh dear!
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/nsw/brett-oconnor-head-of-child-protection-in-queensland-schools-charged-with-historical-sex-abuse-offences-against-pupils-at-two-sydney-private-schools-20150410-1mh5zg.html
Annabel Crabbe looks at the Senate inquiry on tax avoidance.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/annabel-crabb-agents-of-justice-run-down-pilfering–great-and-small-20150411-1mi92w.html
Michael West looks deeper into the inquiry.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/microsoft-hqs-bill-sample-shows-senate-inquiry-where-the-power-lies-20150410-1mi0ak.html
More on this from The Independent Australia.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/stopping-corporate-tax-avoidance-in-a-house-of-smoke-and-mirrors,7572
The 18 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/04/11/the-eighteen-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-238/
Section 2 . . .
Another push for dying with dignity legislation, this time in Victoria.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/voluntary-euthanasia-greens-push-for-state-mps-to-consider-dying-with-dignity-law-reform-20150411-1miwoe.html
Food, sex and evangelical purity.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/food-sex-and-evangelical-purity-20150411-1mglx0.html
Cathy Wilcox’s tribute to Richie.
Pat Campbell previews the proposed Immigration Dept propaganda TV series.
Here are some good cartoons to flick through.
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/national/the-sunday-age-cartoons-12-april-2015-20150411-1mj3hq.html
BK – Up early!
BK
WOW you are p early especially being in SA Big day ahead?
CTar1 and mari
Yes, got up at 3:30 for a leak and Mrs BK decided for me to go out and listen to the newly installed heat pump which is a bit noisy. I used a phone app to measure the noise level at between 62 and 70 dB(A) one metre from the unit. I also made a sound recording. The manufacturer’s stated specification is 56 dB(A) at that distance.
even at the minimum recorded level that is a 6 dB(A) difference which equates to a fourfold increase in sound pressure. The 14 dB(A) difference at the maximum represents a 25 times greater sound pressure.
My next step is to borrow a calibrated meter and then to lock horns with the supplier. It will be fun.
Anyway, I went back to bed but was wide awake, so it was the Dawn Patrol and last night’s New Tricks for me!
WA has been supported by the east for decades; and all through the support the east has had to listen to their shit; for a short period they started paying back because of the mining boom, the level of shit gets higher. The mining boom is over; which probable means it will go back to what it was. So I guess of your two options it would be phobias.
It’s a great pity we now buy in all our war hardware, it we still build our own stuff to blow up, giving WA independence, and then invading would be a economic stimulus option.
Oh and as an aside I was born in WA, so you could put me down as a ex WA who is not very impressed with the proctorial nature of the place.
BK
that will teach you getting up for a leak 😀
But you have been very productice and I am afraid too high tech for me. I am getting my daughter and SIL off to go to the Gold Coast when thry ge up!
It’s Tony Abbott restoration time at the Daily ToiletPaper, with the opportunity taken of some friendly ‘drop’ from the PMO to plaster pictures of the Lying Friar with his daughters.
I suspect this has something to do with the recurring theme of Abbott’s rorting of expenses.
He doesn’t you know (cf Daily ToiletPaper, 2015)
http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/prime-minister-tony-abbott-paying-for-daughter-bridget-to-live-at-kirribilli-house/story-fnpn118l-1227299808371
sprocket
He can recoup that amount easily with a few expenses claims 😉
The Daily ToiletPaper is an extension of the PMO spin machine, the propaganda wing of the Liberal Party. And what tasty treats they get to print
and a half page ‘op-ed’ from the Lying Friar himself
BK, why did you link an Annabelle Crabbe article without a safety warning?
BB
I just KNOW you so admire her work!
BK, the thing is I can hear that irritating voice of hers whenever I read anything she’s written. I can see the smarmy smile and the schoolgirl giggles. I imagine what 1950s retro frock she might be wearing. I anticipate the convoluted language…
… anyone? Am I supposed to laugh or cry?
Please help me.
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/apr/11/secret-history-monopoly-capitalist-game-leftwing-origins
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/10/fossil-fuel-free-funds-out-performed-conventional-ones-analysis-shows
From Australian Financial Review.
http://www.msn.com/en-au/money/news/is-sam-dastyari-the-most-anti-business-person-in-australia/ar-AAaOyGs
Morning all.
Sam Dastyari is the interviewee on Insiders this morning. Corporate tax avoidance no doubt getting a going over.
There is no doubt that so-called meta-data has become a vital tool in identifying perpetrators of serious crimes..
On that basis alone, it is not unreasonable, in my view, that this tool remains available for a minimum of two years..
BB
If you’re afflicted with a dose of the Crabbes, a kerosene bath is all I can suggest … for her, of course!
Morning all. Thanks BK. Sprocket it is amazing how the Daily Telegraph got those personal financial details about Bridget Abbott’s paying rent at Kirribilli out of her. How did they do it? Bridget must be outraged!
A pity they were less successful at finding out about hidden business donations to the Liberal party, or the other Abbott daughter’s fake scholarship from an art college. They must try harder.
El Guapo@898
Life is too short for me to have read the legislation and all the commentary, but it is my understanding that access is being tightened up so there goes your first objection.
So that leaves us with the cost.
It will ultimately either be the customers of phone companies and ISPs or the taxpayer. Name your preference.
Savva says the Bridget Abbott renting Kirribilli story is a good news story for the govt because it shows more money flowing into the federal coffers.
Seriously?
In this era of privatised government services there is the question of how quality standards are maintained? One obvious method is to sack the private contractor when they fail to do the job. This appalling example from WA should be an easy case to apply the principle – Serco having supplied unsterilised operating instruments to the Fiona Stanley hospital(!)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-11/serco-fights-to-retain-full-control-of-sterilisation/6386008?WT.ac=statenews_wa
My question is why haven’t they been sacked already? I am familiar with this contractor from work elsewhere, and suffice to say I am not surprised. It is the latest in a long line of breeches at everything from running buses to prisons. They are the classic low cost-low expertise bidder. Do a google search on “Serco contract breech” and see how many hits you get in multiple countries. My question is – why do they keep getting hired? They must have powerful friends….
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/samantha-maiden-time-we-ripped-up-the-golden-ticket-for-those-seniors-with-lots-of-lolly/story-fni0cwl5-1227300016791
Would the govt dare to go there though?
For those who do not remember, Serco was the contractor unwisely awarded most of the Adelaide suburban bus contracts by Chloe Fox in 2011. Their subsequent performance arguably cost Fox her job in the 2014 election. See
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buses_in_Adelaide
Other failures include detention centre safety and UK transport operations. These guys have their own webpage.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Serco-Watch/211959242172274
Socrates:
In WA it feels like Serco is a law unto itself.
Good Morning
Mathew Knott and Crikey will be happy today. Gerard Henderson attacking them is a badge of honour.
Tony must be spitting chips. Good on her
https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/27063121/family-declines-state-funeral-for-benaud/
Abbott is going to let “strictly religious” objectors get away with not having their children immunised.
How bloody weak!
Mari
Indeed. Class act
BK
To be fair it is making it a formal connection to the religion not just saying it as it was previously.
Its further tightening of the rules.
BK:
Yep, totally pathetic. What does religious belief have to do with protecting children from vaccine-preventable disease?
“@TheKouk: Gerard Henderson and economics. Like Basil Fawlty and hotel management. #insiders”
rossmcg
Posted Sunday, April 12, 2015 at 9:40 am | PERMALINK
Mari
Indeed. Class act
Not surprised with the Benaud family. But anther distraction Tony doesn’t have to take attention away fron upcoming Budget?
Morning Bludgeroonies….what mischief are you all up to this fine morning?
Another fine – I’m – not – an – ALP – stooge – comment from TheKouk!
And where, forsooth, do you live now?
I reckon we should use the new metadata laws to track the movements of all un-vaccinated children. That way, when an outbreak of a preventable disease occurs, we can not only track down who might be affected to treat them in time, we can also track down those who contributed to spreading the epidemic so that the victims can sue their parents.
If that’s good news for the nation then the rest of the rooms should be advertised at the local uni at $250 a week rent. Not a bad price at all seeing as there are cooks and servants on hand to help with late night party food for your guests and the bed making and clean up duties in the morning.
I suppose you’ve been keeping a running tally of new borrowing by this useless excuse for a Government.
Confessions 932
Dealing with Serco feels like that in Adelaide too. What Leightons are to road building, they are to services. My question is – why does it continue? In any other business, the bad publicity would end their chances of getting work. It seems to occur regardless of which party is in power. How?
Have a good day all. I’ll leave the Insiders to the Gerard Henderson Fan Club 🙂
You mean the borrowing the ALP left after 6 years of throwing money around and then 2 years of blocking any measure to fix it?
I don’t object to these things so much. They establish a sense of equality of treatment. What I really think is wrong is that high income, asset-heavy people can arrange their affairs to pay little or no tax. Everyone else has to pay tax, yet those with the greatest capacity to pay frequently pay the least.
Briefly
There aren’t that many beads on his abacus.