Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Respondents don’t expect Tony Abbott to make it to the next election, remain strongly opposed to a GST increase, and are effectively unchanged on voting intention since last week.

The regular Essential Research fortnightly average is our only new federal poll for the week, and it finds Labor losing one of the two points it gained last time to record a two-party lead of 53-47. Primary votes are 40% for Labor (down one), 40% for the Coalition (steady), 10% for the Greens (steady) and 1% for what’s left of Palmer United (steady). The poll finds only 26% deeming it likely Tony Abbott will make it to the next election with 57% opting for unlikely, with wide partisan differences along the expected lines. With respect to tax reform, strong majorities are recorded in favour of measures hitting multinational corporations and high-income earners, while fierce hostility remains to expanding or increasing the GST. However, it’s lineball on removing negative gearing, which 33% support and 30% oppose. Questions on economic and financial issues get the usual set of grumpy responses, with a balance of belief in favour of company profits having improved, but every personal and national indicator deemed to have gotten worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

630 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. @BB/546

    Interesting that also the use of mobile is decreasing, and fixed line is increasing.

    Mobile BB is stagnating due to high costs.

  2. briefly and kezza2: have either of you spent much time in remote Aboriginal communities?

    I have not been to any such communities in WA, so I’m prepared to accept that the situation there might be wildly different to the rest of Australia, but in the ones I’ve been to, the police and the various other non-Aboriginal officials do all they can to keep people out of the criminal justice system rather than to put them in it. For instance, the rate at which police intervene in violent domestic disputes – which is arguably too low in any community – is lower still in many Aboriginal communities. Likewise when blokes bash each other up, often quite violently. If two white blokes did it, they’d probably end up in the clink for the night and, if one of them was badly injured, the other might be charged. It’s much less likely to happen with Aboriginal people.

    A high proportion of Aboriginal people make very poor witnesses in court. Sometimes, this makes them vulnerable to being prosecuted when they might have been able to get off by presenting their case better. But far more often, it leads to perpetrators of crime within the community getting off because other community members are not able to give good evidence against them: or quite often, are intimidated by the perpetrators – or, sadly, by community pressure – into clamming up.

    Many police I’ve spoken to have given up trying to do anything much about crimes committed within Aboriginal communities. Sure, when young Aboriginal men are caught breaking into houses or businesses or stealing cars they end up in front of the beak: but that generally happens with young white men as well. But if they commit acts of rape or assault on other Aborigines, often not enough is being done about it: but it isn’t easy.

    Around 30 years ago or so, there were studies done which showed that young Aboriginal men who were tried for their first offences tended to get longer sentences than did young white men who had committed similar first offences. I am told by people in the field that this all began to change after the Deaths in Custody controversy, as did the once routine practice of picking up the paralytic drunks off the street and locking them up for the night. Police practices changed in response to the growing threat of being accused of murdering these detainees in cold blood: because, let’s not beat around the bush, that was the accusation that was being widely and wildly thrown around by indigenous and white leaders back in the early 1990s. The Royal Commission into deaths in custody found hardly a shred of truth in these disparaging allegations about the cops.

    Anyway, to sum up: the problems faced by Aborigines living in remote communities, on the edge of towns or in the large cities are as difficult and profound as you can imagine. But, for the most part, they are not problems of racial discrimination. They are far more deep and existential than that.

  3. Toff

    If you had watched the presser you would know the emphasis was that drug testing will not catch those trafficking or aiding and abetting the trafficking of drugs for increased sports performance.

    Have a look at the Lance Armstrong story.

  4. GG

    [Ben Cousins never tested positive to illegal drugs during his AFL career either.]

    Neither did Lance Armstrong which makes him the perfect fitness and performance coach at Essendon.

  5. Diogs,

    They may have missed out on Lance. But the Bombers do have ex cycling coach Neil Craig on their coaching panel.

    Where there’s smoke, there is blue cod!

  6. meher baba

    [Anyway, to sum up: the problems faced by Aborigines living in remote communities, on the edge of towns or in the large cities are as difficult and profound as you can imagine. But, for the most part, they are not problems of racial discrimination. They are far more deep and existential than that.]

    I don’t know what to say to somebody who thinks like this, other than you don’t understand racism, you don’t understand disadvantage, you don’t understand anything much at all, other than wallowing in your privileged existence.

    Show me your stats, luv.

  7. LL – it did cross my mind but I discounted that due to lack of humour value.

    But it could well be an April Fools joke, and if so props to Crikey for subtlety.

  8. [552
    meher baba

    Anyway, to sum up: the problems faced by Aborigines living in remote communities, on the edge of towns or in the large cities are as difficult and profound as you can imagine.

    But, for the most part, they are not problems of racial discrimination. They are far more deep and existential than that.]

    …The problems of violence, fear, poverty, drug-abuse, dependence, alienation, abandonment, separation, recurring imprisonment, despair, injustice, suicide. Racial hatred, dehumanisation, victimisation…tied together with those perennial weeds, denial and amnesia.

    I met the-then Governor of WA, John Sanderson, in Broome about ten years ago. We spoke for a while. I liked him. He had been on a tour of the remote Kimberley and inland settlements, which had included Balgo Hills in the Tanami. They have very marvelous art there. They also had the very worst problems. Sanderson cared deeply, to no avail, it seemed.

    Really, what is our excuse?

  9. zoidlord@551

    @BB/546

    Interesting that also the use of mobile is decreasing, and fixed line is increasing.

    Mobile BB is stagnating due to high costs.

    That seems strange. I presume you are talking about telephones.

    Do you have a link?

  10. Leroy Lynch

    A couple of Gaurdian quotes on the infamous Crosby… the Lizard of OZ…

    In December 2013, Tim Bell, the famously persuasive PR man who helped sell Margaret Thatcher to Britons during the 70s and 80s, told me that the Tories were “obviously stuck in the Lynton Crosby strategy: be vile, and that’ll do”.

    During the 2005 election, he approved Conservative campaign slogans – “It’s Not Racist to Impose Limits on Immigration”, “How Would You Feel if a Bloke on Early Release Attacked Your Daughter?” – that probably repelled as many voters as they attracted

  11. Unless there have been big changes in the past 6 months, the most recent data I saw showed that landline use is declining at an increasing rate.

  12. Raaraa

    [So pensioners will be taxed on their pension deposit???
    Not an awfully bad idea, I think.]

    I think you’re only referring to the ‘rich’ retired. Why would the government provide pensions with one hand and then take away part of it with the other.

  13. lizzie@568

    Raaraa

    So pensioners will be taxed on their pension deposit???
    Not an awfully bad idea, I think.


    I think you’re only referring to the ‘rich’ retired. Why would the government provide pensions with one hand and then take away part of it with the other.

    You know what? You’re right. I didn’t read your comment well enough. I read that as “superannuation deposits”.

  14. Raaraa

    No probs, but that’s the problem now. The government manage to confuse pensions, the retired, seniors and the over 60s and superannuants far too often.

  15. briefly@564: “Really, what is our excuse?”

    What is our excuse for doing or not doing what exactly?

    All sorts of solutions to the problem of Aboriginal disadvantage have been tried. Enormous sums of money have been spent per capita. Nothing so far has been shown to be guaranteed to work. The situations in Hope Vale and Yirrkala – where there is very strong leadership (some would describe it as “patriarchal”) are somewhat better than in most other remote communities. But those communities find keeping their head above water a continuing struggle.

    I’m all for doing whatever it is that needs to be done to get Aboriginal people off the grog and drugs, out of the courts and the gaols, into schools and jobs (or meaningful activities),and living fulfilling lives which combine the best aspects and amenities of both traditional and modern, non-indigenous lifestyles. I wouldn’t put any sort of upper limit on how much governments should spend on achieving these goals: I reckon 50% or more of the Federal budget for a number of years would be quite justifiable, given all that we and our forefathers have put the Aboriginal people through.

    But what are the strategies that are going to work? Nobody seems to know, and there’s the rub.

  16. [But what are the strategies that are going to work? Nobody seems to know, and there’s the rub.]

    Give Ireland back to the Irish.

  17. lizzie@570

    Raaraa

    No probs, but that’s the problem now. The government manage to confuse pensions, the retired, seniors and the over 60s and superannuants far too often.

    And it’s always easier to blame the pensioners from the seniors group for some reason…..

  18. meher baba

    [I’m all for doing whatever it is that needs to be done to get Aboriginal people off the grog and drugs, out of the courts and the gaols, into schools and jobs (or meaningful activities),and living fulfilling lives which combine the best aspects and amenities of both traditional and modern, non-indigenous lifestyles. I wouldn’t put any sort of upper limit on how much governments should spend on achieving these goals: I reckon 50% or more of the Federal budget for a number of years would be quite justifiable, given all that we and our forefathers have put the Aboriginal people through.]

    Would ya? 50%? After saying this:
    [A high proportion of Aboriginal people make very poor witnesses in court. Sometimes, this makes them vulnerable to being prosecuted when they might have been able to get off by presenting their case better. But far more often, it leads to perpetrators of crime within the community getting off because other community members are not able to give good evidence against them: or quite often, are intimidated by the perpetrators – or, sadly, by community pressure – into clamming up.

    Many police I’ve spoken to have given up trying to do anything much about crimes committed within Aboriginal communities. Sure, when young Aboriginal men are caught breaking into houses or businesses or stealing cars they end up in front of the beak: but that generally happens with young white men as well. But if they commit acts of rape or assault on other Aborigines, often not enough is being done about it: but it isn’t easy.]

    50%??

    Kerrist! What are you on? Ice?

  19. In remote communities, the police are the army of colonial occupation.

    Essentially, this means that they are piggy-in-the-middle.

    Colonial occupations tend to corrupt everyone it touches. The occupiers have no moral basis for their power, except for racism.

    The occupied have no moral or values basis for their actions, except resistance.

    For the powerless in a colonial situation, resistance may take the form of suicide, bashing your partner, smashing your brain with alcohol or drugs, breaking and entering, or smashing somebody else up in a fight. All this sort of stuff is both perfectly senseless and perfectly sensible.

    Howard had a sort of gut feel for this sort of stuff. Legitimacy was to be confirmed by the objectives of the Intervention and by having the military attend as part of the Intervention.

    Where his gut feel failed him (and Labor) completely is that the Intervention (and its latest draconian forced population shift dimension in WA) was bound to fail.

    The general bottom line to success in remote communities is this: programs and policies which have a large degree of Indigenous and non-Indigenous values overlap, tend to work.

    Programs and policies which do not have this values overlap, tend to fail.

  20. briefly

    [Western Australia is markedly different from the other States.]

    Indeed. If imprisoning a racial group were an Olympic sport, WA would be gold medallists.

    Arguably, WA is not about jailing individuals, but concentrating a population for purposes of race control.

  21. BW

    [The occupied have no moral or values basis for their actions, except resistance.]

    Well, that’s not true. Take the Warsaw ghetto for example.

    [For the powerless in a colonial situation, resistance may take the form of suicide, bashing your partner, smashing your brain with alcohol or drugs, breaking and entering, or smashing somebody else up in a fight. All this sort of stuff is both perfectly senseless and perfectly sensible.]

    Yep. And that didn’t apply to the indigenes. That applied to the godforsaken felons who were brought here by ship.

    Australia’s first people have always been regarded as INFERIOR, as meher baba reinforces in every one of his posts.

    RACISM WRIT LARGE.

  22. [Yep. And that didn’t apply to the indigenes. That applied to the godforsaken felons who were brought here by ship.]

    Of course that is true for the convict states, like NSW and Tassie.

    SA is full of the blood of free settlers. Which has been contaminated by reprobates from interstate.

    😀

  23. 576
    markjs
    Posted Wednesday, April 1, 2015 at 5:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Hmmm ..filed this under “useful dirt” no doubt:

    “Federal Liberal National Party MP Warren Entsch says he first heard of former state Labor MP Billy Gordon’s criminal past and domestic violence allegations in 2012.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-01/warren-entsch-first-heard-of-billy-gordon-allegations-in-2012/6364556

    Can we assume that it was probably the LNP that approached the expartner first?

  24. Diogs
    [SA is full of the blood of free settlers. Which has been contaminated by reprobates from interstate.]

    What a larf.

    That’s why SA holds the record for blood-lust, serial, multiple killings.

    Hope you wiped the knife down before you posted.

  25. [“Woner if LNP are satisfied now?”]

    The charges and court proceedings have served their purpose, so I’d say yes.

    This whole business screams for a Royal Commission.

  26. BW

    Would you agree that rape constitutes a woman saying she doesn’t want to have sex with you?

    And the bloke just does ahead and forces sex upon the woman?

  27. Fairfax ran a story this morning about a second complaint against a member of the labor government in relation to domestic violence allegations.

    The allegations were sent to the office of the Premier AND also to media outlets by a anonymous person. The allegations were against a unnamed member of the labor government with the alleged victim using the prior work history of the member as the only form of identification.

    The state secretary was unable to identify the supposed offender as the work history provided did not correspond to that of any current member of Parliament of any current staff member.

    The state secretary responded to the allegations asking for more information but no reply has been received.

    Another allegation printed in the Courier Mail this morning against a named member referred to matters the member had already informed the party of at his preselection and refer to court action against the member in the early 2000’s which was dismissed and to a dispuite with a real estate company over the payment of a commission. Both incidents were before the entry into Parliament by the member, both were known by the party and neither resulted in any conviction against the member.

    The LNP and the Courier Mail in particular will continue with their crusade but one has to consider how many times can the boy cry wolf before the public just give a collective “who gives a ratz “

  28. Boerwar

    Australia and W.A. scored a mention on Al Jazeera news yesterday over the attempts to force people from their towns.

    Actually Straya got a double mention on Al Jazeera. Quite ironically anti commie nutcase BA Santamaria’s fanboi Abbott managed to get Russia and Australia singled out for special attention. The two were specifically mentioned as being a bit slack arsked last year when it came to giving aid last year.

  29. Lizzie 588

    Probably right , “born to rule ” mentality

    Steve 777 590

    Hopefully an ALP will do that as something has to done

  30. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/no-member-of-government-fits-new-domestic-violence-allegation-labor-20150401-1mcz8a.html
    [No member of government fits new domestic violence
    April 1, 2015 – 4:13PM
    Amy Remeikis
    Queensland state political reporter

    A Labor investigation into a domestic violence allegation made against a different member of the government has come up empty.

    The woman who made the complaint, which was in an email sent to the Premier’s office and distributed to the media, included allegations of physical abuse and a description of the man’s former work history.

    However Labor State Secretary Evan Moorhead said no member of the government or ministerial staff fit the description.

    “The complaint was anonymous and did not identify the person against whom the complaint is made,” he said.

    “I have replied to the email to seek more information from the complainant.

    “I have not received any further advice.

    “There is no member of the State Parliamentary Labor Party or ministerial staff member who fits the description in the email.

    “We will continue to investigate should more information come to hand.”

    Fairfax Media revealed the woman’s complaint on Wednesday.

    She did not respond to requests for further information, only saying in her email to the Premier that “in light of your attitude to the [Billy] Gordon matter, I believe my experience should be made public”.

    The allegation was made just days after claims the member for Cook, Billy Gordon, abused his former partner were made public and were referred to police by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.

    Mr Gordon has maintained his innocence. The police investigation is ongoing.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-31/northern-territorypaperless-arrests-regime-challenged-high-court/6363294
    [NT’s ‘unprecedented’ paperless arrest laws face High Court challenge from Indigenous justice group
    By Felicity James
    Updated about 8 hours ago

    The North Australian Aboriginal Justice Agency (NAAJA) is challenging the Northern Territory’s “unprecedented” paperless arrest police powers in the High Court.

    The laws, introduced by the Territory Government in November last year, are aimed at getting so-called troublemakers off the streets and reducing police paperwork.

    The Police Administration Act gives police the power to detain someone for up to four hours for summary offences, which would ordinarily require an infringement notice, such as swearing, making too much noise and other “disorderly behaviour”.]

  31. [Billy Gordon never talked politics with his mother. She never wanted him to be a politician. The night he made history by being elected to parliament in Queensland, she texted him: “I’m still waiting for you to come back to the church.”

    Still, she could see politics made sense in terms of his lineage. His great-grandfather Thomas Miller, who taught himself to read and write by copying the label of a jam tin and became the first Aboriginal man on the Atherton tablelands to own a car, would have been a politician, she says. That is, if Indigenous Australians had enjoyed so much as the vote in the 1930s.

    Gordon’s grandfather Jack Congoo was one of the country’s great whistleblowers on the stolen wages scandal, teaming up with the poet and activist Kath Walker to bring the travesties perpetrated on Aboriginal cattle station workers to the attention of Canberra in the 1960s.

    But Dorothy Webster, a devout member of a Christian church group, held different hopes for her son Billy, and still does. She wants him return to the fold and become a minister.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/01/theyre-hunting-billy-gordon-down-supporters-speak-up-for-embattled-mp

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