Sunday
6pm. The Nationals have roared back into contention in Lismore with the counting of 504 postal votes, 56.9% of which have been primary votes for the Nationals. This is 17.5% higher than their polling booth vote, compared with only an 8.2% difference in 2011. The ABC is saying the Greens are on 50.4% two-party preferred, but I’m presuming this is based on a speculative preference flow – if you’re out there Antony, clarification would be much appreciated. The NSWEC has pulled its original preference count and is telling us we won’t get anything back until “the Distribution of Preferences has been completed for all Districts and candidates have been declared elected”, which strongly suggests to me there’s no new indicative count being done. In any case, if the ABC preference flow is correct, it would seem extremely likely that the postal trend will continue decisively in the Nationals favour.
1am. As best as I can tell, the two-party swing has been 9.4%, suggesting a final result of 54.8% for the Coalition and 45.2% for Labor, with preferences breaking about 33% to Labor and 19% to the Coalition, with 48% exhausting. This compares with 24%, 21% and 55% in 2011 – using those numbers would have caused you to overstate the Coalition two-party vote by a bit over 1%. The change in preference behaviour is roughly half that at the Queensland election, when Labor got 48% (up from 27%), the Liberal National Party got 16% (down from 22%) and the exhausted rate was 36% (down from 51%).
Saturday
11.31pm. The NSWEC announces counting has completed for the night. So there doesn’t seem to be much uncertainty left, apart from the narrowness of Labor’s leads in Gosford (0.6%), The Entrance (0.9%) and Strathfield at a pinch (1.3%), and maybe whether Liberal preferences flow heavily enough to the independent in Wollongong to endanger Noreen Hay.
11.16pm. Little further progress, except that the tide keeps ebbing towards Jodi McKay in Strathfield, who should now be okay with a 1.3% projected margin.
10.23pm. Not sure exactly why the Upper Hunter 2PP is entering in one surge, but now we’ve got 30 out of 45 and the Nationals are out of the woods.
10.15pm. Upper Hunter 2PP count now up to 16 booths out of 45, and the Nationals lead has dropped from 2.9% to 1.8%.
10.03pm. Earlier I noted the Nationals lead in Upper Hunter snapped from 0.2% to 2.9% — that turns out to have been because the 2PP booth count went from four out of 45 to 13. These are small booths so you wouldn’t want to be too confident, but it would still be a surprise if Labor won. In any case, the swing is a highly notable 20.3%.
10.01pm. Jodi McKay continues edging very slightly further ahead in Strathfield, her lead now 0.9%.
9.59pm. Antony explains peculiarity of Upper Hunter count, with lots of primaries and few 2PPs, and says on his view the Nationals primary vote is low enough that they’re in trouble. So we will keep that on the watch list.
9.56pm. Noreen Hay up a bit in Wollongong to 41.4%. Independent Arthur Rorris leads Liberal 20.9% to 19.4% — I suppose it’s possible he’ll do less well in late counting, which you often see with independents and minor parties, and that he won’t finish second. If he does, he’ll need a very strong flow of Liberal preferences. Whether he’ll get it is a question we won’t know the answer to this evening.
9.54pm. Another booth in Strathfield shifts ALP lead from 0.7% to 0.8%.
9.51pm. And now the lead’s recorded at 2.9%, so not sure what’s happening here.
9.49pm. Surprise late movement in Upper Hunter — 44.2% counted, 22.7% swing, projected Nationals lead 0.3%. However, there’s a big mismatch here between the number of booths reporting on two-party (four) and primary (37), so I suspect we may have an anomaly here.
9.45pm. 13% counted for upper house, and Land Tax Party’s vote has gone down from 1.8% last I looked to 1.6%. Probably nine seat to Coalition with one each as usual for Christians and Shooters, which would get the Coalition what they wanted, namely one cross-bench micro-party to sway rather than two. Too early to say anything with confidence though.
9.44pm. Another booth, another 0.1% on Labor’s projected lead in The Entrance — now at 0.8%.
9.40pm. Gosford right on the line, flipping between Liberal ahead and Labor ahead on the ABC projection with nearly every update.
9.37pm. ABC now calling East Hills after long have Liberal merely “ahead”, with a fairly substantial lead of 2.2%.
9.33pm. ABC now back to Labor gain in The Entrance, but all it’s down to is a shift in the predicted margin from 0.5% to 0.7%. With 56.6% counted, this needs to stay on the watch list. A long history of very close results in this seat.
9.27pm. Other than that, Gosford and The Entrance very much in doubt. But as far as I can tell, all other results are settling in.
9.25pm. Jodi McKay losing ground in Strathfield: projected lead now only 0.6%, and ABC downgrades her from win to ahead. Noreen Hay now down to 40.5% in Wollongong, to the point where she could conceivably be in trouble. Independent Arthur Rorris’s 21.6% to 19.7% lead over the Liberals is narrow, but almost certainly sufficient.
8.58pm. Berejiklian asks a good question about preference exhaustion, but it wouldn’t appear that anyone’s placed to answer that. My vague sense though is that ReachTEL’s projections were about right.
8.57pm. ABC determining no swing at all in Monaro, with Nationals margin of 2.0%.
8.49pm. Antony says Queanbeyan results indicate Nationals to hold Monaro. Labor concedes Newtown, says Chris Uhlmann.
8.48pm. Labor gains Londonderry, vacated by Bart Bassett, with 15.8% swing off a third counted.
8.47pm. Hadn’t mentioned Tamworth – Peter Draper has fallen a bit flat there, safe Nationals retain.
8.45pm. The Entrance very, very close. Ditto Gosford.
8.44pm. Berejiklian points to 12.2% Christian Democrats vote in Granville, up from 5.3% last time, which has evidently not converted into a strong flow of Liberal preferences.
8.42pm. As Antony Green notes, Alex Greenwich’s 44.0% is well clear of Clover Moore’s career best of 39.8%.
8.41pm. Seat projection now closer to the respondent-allocated than the previous-election preference model.
8.37pm. Greens big show looking very much like the luck of the draw — their primary vote is essentially unchanged on 2011.
8.35pm. Prospect has now tipped over to the point where the ABC computer is providing 2PP projections and not just raw numbers (it took me a while to twig that it was working that way), and despite a slow count it’s calling it for Labor.
8.31pm. No Land Tax’s 1.9% suggests they’re a show for an upper house seat, I would have thought.
8.29pm. Long night ahead in Monaro. The ABC had a slight swing to the Nationals before, but now it’s a slight swing to Labor — 1.1%, with a margin of 2%. Slow count, with the picture unlikely to be clear until we see those big Queanbeyan booths.
8.27pm. Very good result for Liberal member Gareth Ward in Kiama, who has worked very hard from what I can tell, and is credited with a 1.4% swing. Nearby, Noreen Hay’s primary vote of 43% plus should see her right, despite the independent finishing second.
8.23pm. ABC calling for Londonderry, adding to Sydney area gains that include Blue Mountains, Campbelltown, Granville, Rockdale and Strathfield. But they don’t include East Hills, which isn’t looking good for them, or Seven Hills and Oatley, where the Liberals have won — never mind Coogee, Seven Hills, Holsworthy, Mulgoa, Parramatta and Penrith (if you were wondering about Jackie Kelly, she’s on 8.3%).
8.19pm. Labor now ahead in Gosford, which if sustained would add to Central Coast/Hunter gains in Maitland, Port Stephens, Swansea and Wyong, to which you could add Newcastle and Charlestown if using the 2011 election as your base.
8.18pm. The ABC computer has demoted Labor to “ahead” in The Entrance.
8.16pm. Antony not entirely convinced by his Strathfield numbers, but it would be very odd for the ABC to be wrong about a 3.7% lead with over 30% counted.
8.15pm. ABC projections filling out. Big Labor-versus-Coalition question marks are East Hills, Gosford, Monaro. Slow count in Liverpool and Prospect. Independent now second in Wollongong, which might be dangerous for Noreen Hay, but you’d think her 44.4% primary vote would be enough.
8.14pm. Despite hopeful talk from Berejiklian, the ABC is putting Labor 3.7% ahead and calling it.
8.11pm. Evenly allocated the ABC’s five undecided seats, result looks somewhere between the 2011 preferences and respondent-allocated preferences projections on my poll tracker — the primary votes of which are basically correct, with Labor 0.9% too low on the primary, the Greens 0.5% too high, the Coalition 0.3% too high.
8.05pm. Looks like a good night for the Greens, who might win as many as four lower house seats. ABC computer confident Labor will win Ballina if they get ahead of the Greens, but that’s not looking likely — Greens 30.0%, Labor 25.7%. The Greens are also well ahead of Labor in Lismore, so I’m guessing that’s looking a close-run thing between Nationals and Greens. ABC computer calling Newtown and Balmain for them.
8.05pm. ABC calling Oatley for Liberal.
7.57pm. I’m now getting that correction I anticipated in Strathfield. Now it’s projected that McKay is 1.7% ahead, although it’s not calling it yet.
7.55pm. Antony crediting Labor’s strong recovery in Hunter and Illawarra to electricity privatisation, and recalling something similar happening in 1991.
7.51pm. Overall, the election is playing very much according to script. Nationals in trouble in Ballina and Lismore, as forecast. Strong performance by Labor in Hunter and Central Coast. But Labor is falling short in Sydney, although an uneven picture with some stronger performances for Labor (Campbelltown, Blue Mountains) and some weaker (East Hills, Oatley).
7.50pm. Berejiklian calling Oatley and getting “positive messages” about East Hills, which would both be demoralising losses for Labor given their 3.8% and 0.2% margins.
7.49pm. But Greens well ahead of Labor for second place in Lismore, and surely looking good to win on Labor preferences.
7.48pm. Ballina on a three-way knife edge. Nothing between Labor and Greens for second place, nothing between Labor and Nationals if it’s Labor who gets ahead. Presumably Greens will win if they finish ahead of Labor.
7.47pm. Central Coast and Hunter going according to script for Labor. Very good result by the looks in Port Stephens; Maitland, Wyong, The Entrance, Swansea look like gains.
7.45pm. Monaro will clearly be close, but hard to pick given its diversity. You’d rather be the Nationals at this stage.
7.40pm. Very early numbers good for Labor in Macquarie Fields, and they’re well ahead in Campbelltown, looking good in Londonderry. Granville being called for Labor. But “Liberal ahead” in East Hills. Strikingly good result for Liberal in Strathfield — too striking I think, will want to see more numbers there. Still too early to say much about Seven Hills. Nothing doing for Labor in Sydney in seats beyond 8% – Holsworthy, Mulgoa and Parramatta looking safe for the Liberals.
7.38pm. Antony’s projected primary vote totals broadly in line with the polls, with the Coalition maybe a big higher than my poll aggregate. I’m not able to get a clear sense though of what preferences are doing in aggregate.
7.33pm. Labor “ahead” in Port Stephens, which is good news for them. ABC calls 49 seats for Coalition, 30 for Labor, one for the Greens (that’s Newtown I guess, but that’s off very early numbers) and two independents, meaning Greg Piper and (I guess) Alex Greenwich.
7.33pm. Seven Hills looking close. Sensing western Sydney slightly better for Labor than some commentary was indicating.
7.29pm. Liberals looking okay in Kiama. Only 3.4% counted in Wollongong, but the mooted independent is third on 18.6%. He’ll first need to overtake the Liberals on 21.4%, then get strong preferences to overtake Hay, who is on 38.4%.
7.29pm. ABC has Coogee called for the Liberals, so I ran down the garden path a little on that one earlier.
7.28pm. Campbelltown looking strong for Labor, despite talk they would struggle
7.26pm. ABC calls Maitland for Labor. Independent Philip Penfold doing well on 22.6%, but still running third. Elsewhere on the Central Coast, The Entrance remains called for Labor, and they’re ahead in Wyong on 4.5%. Liberals ahead in Gosford.
7.24pm. Blue Mountains looking good for Labor.
7.23pm. Greens looking strong on 3.7% counted in Newtown; close on Balmain in 1.4%. Early days yet in both.
7.22pm. Greg Piper returned in Lake Macquarie.
7.20pm. Still only 5.4% counted, but Ballina looking either Labor or Greens, barring a late Nationals recovery. No worries for the Nationals in Clarence though, and likely to get home in Tweed.
7.19pm. Remarkably strong early results for the Liberals in Oatley, with 4.8% counted.
7.18pm. Antony’s display has Nats “ahead” rather than confirmed in Lismore.
7.17pm. Greens matching it with Labor on 2.7% counted in Heffron, but no idea what booth it is — Greens vote is strong here at the northern, city end of the seat.
7.15pm. ABC computer calling Goulburn for the Liberals.
7.14pm. The ABC computer is calling Lismore for the Nationals, but the question is whether a Nationals-versus-Greens result might tell a different story.
7.13pm. Antony talking up the Liberals in a few seats where I’m not seeing numbers yet. Berejiklian says they’re “looking like a chance” in The Entrance, but I’m not sure if she’s actually looked at the figures.
7.12pm. ABC computer calls The Entrance for Labor from 16.3% counted.
7.12pm. First numbers from Tweed have 18.0% swing to Labor with Nationals 3.6% ahead; 4.9% counted.
7.11pm. And Antony cautious says ABC computer “indicative” of Coalition victory.
7.10pm. Antony brings up bad early number for Labor in Monaro, but cautions the seat will be decided in Queanbeyan rather than these rural areas, where things could be very different.
7.09pm. Lineball between Labor and Greens for second place in Lismore, but with Labor looking to be falling short if it’s them.
7.05pm. Not sure what’s going on in Coogee. Antony is obviously seeing something different from me, because I just heard him refer to encouraging numbers for Liberal member Bruce Notley-Smith. And the ABC numbers I was just citing have essentially disappeared – now they’ve got a 2PP with only 141 votes counted.
7.03pm. Encouraging numbers for Labor in Coogee — 6.7% counted, 9.4% swing, Labor 1.1% ahead.
7.02pm. Richo on Sky appears to suggest he’s thinking the Greens will win Lismore.
7.01pm. Antony brings up a Goulburn two-party result that bears out what I just said — big swing, but not big enough.
6.59pm. Very strong looking results for the Greens in Ballina, even taking the booths into account, but unfortunately here too the notional count is Nationals-versus-Labor.
6.56pm. It’s actually looking like Pru Goward is down about 20% on the primary vote with Labor up 4%. That’s still not enough to account for her 26.8% margin.
6.52pm. The most advanced count is in the who-cares electorate of Cootamundra.
6.49pm. Early figures for Goulburn look superficially good for Pru Goward, giving her 53.2% of the primary vote, but there’s nothing in from Goulburn proper.
6.46pm. Greens on 29.9% and Nationals on 40.8% in Lismore, suggesting preferences from the 23.8% Labor vote will be decisive, which is no surprise. Antony appears to be doing an estimated Nationals-versus-Greens throw, but the NSWEC count is Nationals-versus-Labor.
6.40pm. Most a case of primary vote counts in safe Nationals areas at this stage. Still not seeing any two-party counts so I can get a bead on preferences.
6.37pm. Lismore is geared for a Nationals-versus-Greens count, which is good. With 1% counted, there’s a projected Nationals margin of 2.4%, but it’s too early at this point. Meaninglessly early figures for Golburn and Rockdale, both lineball at this very early stage.
6.28pm. A few tiny booths in from around the place. One is Fairy Hill Hall in Lismore, but it only amounts to 62 votes, which seems a bit odd because there were 420 here last time.
6pm. Polls have closed, and we should get the first and smallest booths in in about half an hour or so. There are two exit polls doing the rounds, ReachTEL with 54-46 to the Coalition, Galaxy with 55-45 from primary of 46% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 11% for the Greens – so very well in line with the poll tracker, in other words.
There you are I thought I lived in a country with a well regulated stock market but apparently I live in Yeltsin’s Russia.
Yes the Post Master General gave such a good, consumer focussed service, particularly to country areas when he ran the phones.
Which brings me back to the point.
Sussex St spent 4 years in a policy free zone. When we came to the crunch all they could produce was a lazy, emotive appeal for the last vestiges of protectionism.
Not sure what’s wrong with protecting the public interest against rent seekers. A natural monopoly asset belongs in public hands so that it can be managed for the benefit of the community rather than managers and banks.
Lefty-e:
The privatisers (privateers) claim we have nothing to worry about because electricity is a regulated industry.
However, that means it’s regulated right now.
All this privatisation is going to do is bring in private enterprises (with their lobbyists) who will do everything they can to game the regulatory system and ship profits off-shore.
Sydney Airport is supposed to be regulated, and look what a rip-off shambles it is.
Can anyone tell me what Michael Egan has been doing since privatisation. He seems to have drunk finance industry kool-aid? Be interest to know why?
“since privatisation” = “since leaving parly”
Not sure what a rent-seeker is but I gather the implication that making income from a capital investment is in someway corrupt.
Extracting income from an asset you did not create and which was created by the public for the public is indeed parasitic.
OC – Actually, it is corrupt to make money off the toil of others. Unfortunately, it’s the way the world works. But there are limits.
[Mr Keating said he supported the Premier’s views on power privatisation, even though “there are still some obscurantists in the Labor Party”.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/paul-keating-backs-nsw-electricity-privatisation-plan/story-e6frgczx-1227138743828
Should Keating be expelled from the ALP….or just Martin Ferguson, Senator Dastyari?
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/new-south-wales-decisive-win-for.html
New South Wales: Decisive Win For Coalition
Analysis; postcount thread coming sometime later today.
So all employers are corrupt and the trading of assets is parasitic.
You guys aren’t chalkies are you?
Yes expel Keating, Egan, Carr, Iemma, Ferguson but, for the love of Christ, make sure that Noreen Hay keeps her endorsement.
But isn’t Sydney Airport competing with all the other international airports in Sydney?
OC – One of the unfortunate facts of our society is that many people believe that the capitalist/market system is a substitute for a moral system. It’s not. People do not get their just deserts.
ABC have LNP on 54 seats today I see….
Making money from a capital asset, buying it at $X and selling it some time later without improvement for $(X + n) to take advantage of a rising market, is not corrupt or evil, so long as the transactions are legal and above board. On the other hand, it is not particularly worthy nor is it deserving of public support, from the tax system or elsewhere.
[Oakeshott Country
Posted Sunday, March 29, 2015 at 3:16 pm | PERMALINK
Yes expel Keating, Egan, Carr, Iemma, Ferguson but, for the love of Christ, make sure that Noreen Hay keeps her endorsement.]
Michael Costa?
Bingara Gorge, Wilton, electorate of Wollondilly, is typical of the swish housing estates springing up everywhere on the outer skirts of Australia’s capital cities. It’s all McMansions and tree lined streets with lawns looking like they’ve been cut with electric razors, and the garages face the street and are super sized for the benefit of the oversized utes and brightly coloured SUVs of Latham’s ladder-climbers and cashed-up bogans. They vote Lib two thirds these folk, and they’ll probably do so until the rates rise and the bubble bursts, or even just the second job goes, or the divorce comes, and the weeds start appearing behind the for sale signs along the picket fences of Arcadia Close, and the faces turn sour at the polling booths.
One could argue that some markets like real estate are corrupt, not necessarily in a legal or moral sense, but in that they are infested by rent-seekers gambling on ever-rising values, outbidding people who actually want somewhere to live, driving many out of the market and others, mostly younger people of modest means, into deep debt for the rest of their working lives. And it’s a gigantic game of musical chairs. One day it will collapse in a heap.
And what about financial markets? A gigantic gambling casino, especially derivatives but also shares and commodities. One day it will fall into a black hole and pull the rest of us in with it.
I am not a communist but certainly a ‘market sceptic’. I don’t think we need to nationalise butcher shops or beer production. The Government doesn’t need to manufacture cars or TVs. But out of control markets can, have and eventually will again do great harm.
Nicholas has done a pretty good job of showing that it is possible for the Greens to develop some sort of an economic policy without shifting to the so called right.
A general comment about wealth creation, in order for investment streams such as super to achieve their stated objective then they need to be allowed to grow without being overly hit by the ATO.
Their is a differences between allowing wealth creation verses just giving concessions or deductions to those who have already successfully accumulated ample that doesn’t justify them receiving such concessions or deductions.
It isn’t true to claim that share dividends are not taxed, as they are taxed, there is a good reason why the old double taxation of dividends was ended by the Hawke Government, as it was an ineffective way of taxing, also owning shares is a good way of benefiting from a business’s income.
Before double taxation of share dividends ended, companies were able to get around it by not issuing dividends.
Buying and selling shares in the secondary market is little more than a transaction between two investors, its pretty basic.
No, i actually would expel Costa
dedalus
Looking at the old NSW and Victorian election results, shows a picture of a pretty stable set of voting patterns, the only time things ever really change is if the area has a substantial change to its population mix.
Once an area does start to change, it generally keeps changing regardless of any short term economic events.
OC
Me too!
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/new-south-wales-postcount-thread.html
Postcount thread. I’ve started with Legislative Council and I clear up a misconception about the vote totals that was cropping up here last night. The ABC percentages are likely closer to right as the official percentages include informal and unallocated votes and are likely misleading. No Land Tax and AJP are not winning at the moment but if the Coalition primary falls, one of them could.
Happiness@617
Yes because they’ve switched Lismore from Green to Nat though I suspect this is just off their estimates of preference flow and no-one really knows. Lismore has no 2CP showing on the Elections NSW site. (The other possibility is the flow exists and ABC has a feed of it but that needs confirmation).
Thanks Kevin
Upper limit for the LNP is then 56 seats, with the lower limit 52 seats.
For the Upper House its 20 to 21 seats for the LNP in the 42 seat chamber (with 2 CDP seats it should be easy for them to get the electricity leasing plans through no matter what happens in the final count).
Can someone please tell me how optional preferences are distributed in the LC?
Say 20% of the Greens votes preference the AJP and say the Greens get 2.2 quotas.
Which bit of the 0.2 quotas go to the AJP?
Are there those votes with AJP preferences that got locked into the first 2 quotas and will never be distributed?
Or does the AJP gets 20% of the 0.2 quota?
20% of the 0.2 quota
On the topic of rebuilding by Labor, its clear the Tripodi/Obeid faction remains a force.On my count there will be 6 people who would be considered “close associates”. Waiting for master to return perhaps?
Name names ESJ
I presume Noreen is one
Cant make it to easy for you OC,but I’ll give you another (yes Noreen is one) Guy Zangari in Fairfield.
Raaraa:
The correct answer, of course, is that it doesn’t actually work like that.
What happens is that the first votes are all counted (above the line and below the line) and then the candidates are ranked in order.
Then the lowest ranked candidate is excluded. Then their second preferences (if any) are allocated to the remaining candidates.
Then the rankings are re-ordered, if needed, with the additional votes from above.
Then the process continues.
(in actual fact candidates with full quotas in their own right get in from the start as they cannot ever “lose” votes as such, so if you get a quote you are in and you don’t need to wait for this laborious process described above, which often goes into dozens of “rotations” before the outcome is known.
So although the Greens have 2.2 quotas, by the time they get to determine who wins the 20th or 21st seat, they might have much more than 2.2 quotas and the “surplus” might be enough to get them their 3rd seat, or it gets distributed to whoever is the remaining candidate highest in the Greens preferencing.
Thanks for the response.
Nicholas @604:
[Not sure what’s wrong with protecting the public interest against rent seekers. A natural monopoly asset belongs in public hands so that it can be managed for the benefit of the community rather than managers and banks.]
But…but…managers and bankers need the money! How else will they afford their third Cayman Island with their Christmas bonus, if they can’t buy and sell everything in sight and damn the punters!
ESJ @632:
[Cant make it to easy for you OC,but I’ll give you another (yes Noreen is one) Guy Zangari in Fairfield.]
Interesting. Yes, the NSW ALP needs to finish cleaning house – from that perspective alone, picking Foley was a bad idea. He’s too much part of the party machine to be able to challenge it on so fundamental a level as the task will require.
Raaraa What happens in reality is pretty simple. Anyone with full quota gets in. Because so many options get exhausted and it is only the really small parties that get excluded they make no real difference. You are left with a few candidates who have more than half a quota and they get in. Last time Pauline Hanson just missed out with half a quota. This time it looks liek anyone with more than .4 of a quota will get in. So Greens with 2.2 will miss out Labor with 6.95 get 7, Coalition with 9.47 get 10, Shooters with .8 get 1 Christians with .6 get 1 and NLT with .3 will miss out. The Greens or NLT would need to pass .47 to get a place above the Coalition. With about half of the lower votes exhausting and not all going the way you would expect, this would seem hard. The postal and pre-poll favour the right rather than the left.
ifonly@637
Eh, I was only wondering how remaining preferences are divided up when the full quotas are fulfilled (and removed).
I would imagine if all the remaining seats are left with candidates who have partial quotas, they’ll eliminate the smallest candidate first and all exhausted votes, and then recalculate the quotas.
I would imagine the point where the Greens candidate gets eliminated, the preferences that didn’t exhaust get divided into the next preferenced candidates, but only at the value of the remaining percentage (as Happiness at 629 pointed out).
Happiness@633
Except that so many votes exhaust in the NSW system that the idea of them getting anywhere near their 3rd seat on preferences from anyone is extremely unlikely.
It’s mostly about the primary votes. Hanson lost from a favourable primary position because she was caught on preferences, but she was never far ahead and it usually doesn’t happen.
I have no problem with Ferguson (or Keating) disagreeing with Labor’s policy position of anything, but Ferguson’s a proper rodent.
Even Latham doesn’t brazenly cheerlead for the Libs whilst pretending to be Labor.
Kevin:
Thanks for clarifying. I wasn’t for a moment suggesting the Greens were likely to get a 3rd seat! As on election night I couldn’t see how LNP + CDP wasn’t going to be at least 10 and as you have mentioned in your analysis today, I thought LNP = 10 was not out of the question in their own right.
….just explaining that it isn’t necessarily the “extra 0.2” that gets redistributed, its the extra whatever it happens to be at the time that gets redistributed at the time of extinguishing that candidate (i.e. their run for the seat exhausting). I am sure you could explain it better than me, I find it an amazingly complex system with quirky branches going in very different directions and which does NOT (in my view) actually reflect the desire of the voter.
the_drewski:
I think you may not have seen the entire quote from Keating in the paper (see above link):
[Appearing besides Mr Baird at the announcement of the name of Barangaroo Point, part of the revitalisation of Sydney’s former industrial waterfront, Mr Keating praised Mr Baird saying he was going “exceptionally well”.
Mr Keating said he supported the Premier’s views on power privatisation, even though “there are still some obscurantists in the Labor Party”.
“The Labor Party has been too late in making clear what belongs to the state and what belongs to the private economy,” he said.
Mr Keating is on the record as being no fan of Mr Robertson, having once said: ”If the Labor Party’s stocks ever get so low as to require your services in its parliamentary leadership, it will itself have no future.”]
My bold. Hard to see how this is much different from Ferguson.
Since employers are evil according to the alp. 2017 alp policy is to ban all employers and everyone makes money themself. Btw I plan on building a car myself for a living ……. Thank god the union does not run the country and union hacks like shorten and foley is not in power
@dovif/643
That’s one of the most stupidest comments I read on PB lately…
And probably just biased.
Even self-employed are considered employers.
Zoidlord
I am just paraphrasing people here. Because everyone who makes a living off other people’s labour are scums and parasites
Theoretically, I make money selling coffee, since the people buying coffee are paying with their hard earn labour does that make me a parasite
Also a lot of us are have industry funds, who invests in companies like Sydney airports and electricity companies, does that make everyone who have superfund money scums?
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/new-south-wales-postcount-thread.html
Added Gosford, East Hills and The Entrance to the postcount thread.
Note that the published 2CP figures for Ballina, Lismore and Wollongong on the ABC coverage are not official results. They are ABC projections only. The ABC should have disclaimers on the page when this sort of thing is done as a lot of people are being confused into thinking these are real party results.
Happiness@641
I find the NSW system both easier to model and with less problems than the Senate/Vic Upper House system. That said the NSW system has some issues, such as:
– the high exhaust rate combined with low quota, increasing the chance of parties getting in from as little as 1.5%
– the ludicrous constitutional requirement to vote to 15, meaning that a party needs to nominate 15 candidates, resulting in giant ballot papers
– the random selection of ballots for some preference transfers (also constitutionally required)
I wouldn’t normally defend Dovif but he was responding to the “all property is theft” tripe that was being proclaimed earlier in the thread
New thread.
What r chances of a by election in East hills?