Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Coalition in NSW

The latest New South Wales state poll records something of a Coalition blowout on the primary vote, but it’s cancelled out by a strong flow to Labor on preferences.

The Fairfax papers have a new Ipsos poll for New South Wales, and while the headline two-party result of 54-46 is well in line with other pollsters, it’s based on a respondent-allocated preference flow that goes remarkably heavily to Labor. The Coalition lead on the primary vote is a highly pronounced 47% to 32%, with the Greens at an uncommonly high 13%. Based on 2011 election preferences, the Coalition lead blows out to 58-42. The two distinguishing traits of the poll – stronger results for the Coalition than other pollsters, and a big gap between the two preference methods – have also been evident in Ipsos’s federal polling. The accompanying report in the Australian Financial Review seems to have gone offline, but it’s a safe bet the poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1000 (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports in comments it was a bigger-than-usual pre-election sample of 1233).

UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here. Mike Baird’s approval is steady since the previous poll of February 5-7 at 60%, with disapproval up four to 22%. Luke Foley’s undecided rating is down from 49% to 32%, with more breaking the way of disapproval (up 11 to 32%) than approval (up seven to 37%). Baird’s lead as preferred premier is little changed, shifting from 54-24 to 56-27.

UPDATE 2 (Galaxy electorate polls): The Daily Telegraph has Galaxy automated phone polls from three electorates, conducted on Thursday from samples of around 550, which show the following:

• The Liberals with a 51-49 lead in Campbelltown, where their margin is 6.8%. The primary votes are 45% for the Liberals (45.5% in 2011), 41% for Labor (34.0%) and 7% for the Greens (6.4%). My poll tracking model, which starts from an assumption of uniform swings in metropolitan and non-metropolitan seats based on breakdowns for such results from Ipsos and Lonergan, has the Liberals at 49.3% in this seat on previous election preferences, and 47.9% on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated flows.

• The Liberals with a 52-48 lead in Coogee, where the margin is 8.3%. Primary votes are 46% for the Liberals (47.6%), 35% for Labor (25.8%) and 17% for the Greens (21.4%). The BludgerTrack model rates this one as lineball, the Liberals at 50.8% on previous election preference and 50.2% on respondent-allocated.

• The Liberals with a 51-49 lead in The Entrance, where the margin is 11.8%. Primary votes are 46% for the Liberals (50.6%), 40% for Labor (29.8%) and 10% for the Greens (10.8%). That sits well with BludgerTrack’s reading of 51.1%, but that turns into 49.2% on respondent-allocated preferences.

UPDATE (24/3): No surprises in the latest Morgan SMS poll, which has both major parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 45.5% and Labor to 32.5%, and the Greens up half a point to 12%, for a Coalition two-party lead of 56-44, up from 55.5-44.5. The poll was conducted from Saturday to Monday with a sample of 1211.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

103 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/poll-shows-mike-baird-set-for-victory-as-he-rallies-the-troops-at-campaign-launch-20150322-1m4vmt.html
    [Poll shows Mike Baird set for victory as he rallies the troops at campaign launch
    March 22, 2015 – 6:39PM

    Mike Baird is set to be handed the opportunity to partially privatise the NSW electricity network and implement his $20 billion infrastructure program, with the latest poll suggesting the Coalition will be returned on Saturday but with its majority slashed.

    As the Premier launched the Liberal Party’s official campaign in the Sydney CBD on Sunday, the Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows the Coalition leading Labor by 54 to 46 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

    This represents a 1 percentage point improvement for the Coalition since February.

    If the result is replicated on Saturday, the Coalition would suffer a 10 per cent swing against it from the 2011 election but still retain government.

    The Coalition would lose 18 seats on the redistributed electoral boundaries, leaving it with 51 seats compared to Labor’s 38 in the 93-seat Parliament.

    However, the wild card remains whether Labor can win Coalition-held seats with larger margins, particularly on the north coast. Labor is particularly bullish about Ballina, Lismore and Tweed due to a backlash against coal seam gas.]

  2. NSW 2015 Casualty List:

    1. Jamie Clements ALP Secretary – Knifing Robbo/Putting in Foley- looking pretty dumb(Robbo could have credibly opposed privatisation)

    2. Linda Burney (a new Deputy is essential for the rebuild). Ryan Park anyone?

  3. Curious Jennifer Hewett article. Mentions Ipsos poll, talks up Baird, slams Abbott and says “business” (always a dubious term in political articles) prefers Turnbull. At least we know, as always, what side of the divide Jennifer is on.

    [Mar 22 2015 at 5:04 PM
    Baird the last hope for business
    by Jennifer Hewett

    As the Abbott government falters, the electoral fate of the Baird Government in NSW next weekend is taking on even more significance for a despondent business community. Business leaders are telling themselves, albeit nervously, that Mike Baird will survive the scare campaign against electricity privatisation.

    The alternative is too appalling for them to contemplate. After all, the Baird government is now the only light still glimmering from the wreckage of their hopes for decent economic management in Australia.]

  4. ESJ
    What about Reba, the greatest health minister since Stuart-Robertson, – maybe its time for a comeback.

  5. LNP look to be pulling away, which seems strange strange to me, their core election commitment is controversial, and the unpopularity of the federal LNP.

    Does it all come down to a smile ?

  6. When Eddie is sharing a cell with Bubba I might be able to move on but I think the people who handed the state over to a crime family need to do a bit more penance before then.

  7. It seems a safe bet (with all the usual caveats) that the Coalition will be re-elected in NSW. The interesting question is at what point does the victory become so small that it becomes a ‘virtual’ loss i.e. it is impossible to spin it in a positive way?

    Using Antony Green’s calculator, a TPP result of 53-47 yields a loss of 18 seats, for a result of 51-38-4 (Coal-Lab-Oth). I would think this is just about the worst result the Libs could tolerate. If it went just 2 seats further, to 49-40-4, it starts to look really bad.

  8. 14

    Its not that strange because most voters or the ones that matter do not vote on one issue but a number issues. You may care about asset privatisation but you also care about your job and education so people will balance that out.

    The media is overplaying the federal stuff, because the main people running this line are State libs that are trying pass blame for their own mistakes. The Federal Libs they’re having some impact but not as big as it’s been made out to be.

    Baird is popular and has a good level of trust with voters. This is playing part in there’s polling numbers and I believe people are not ready for Labor yet.

  9. OC there will be no reform in NSW as you and I know. Who do you think is behind the No Land Tax Party? It’s the Unity Party of 2025.

    An increasing cycle of alienation is the most likely outcome with superficial changes of leaders to give the appearance of change.

  10. Perhaps what is happening is that the undecided who were apportioned in the polling have decided as the vote draws near. Labor hasn’t given those that were undecided a good enough reason to cast a vote for them. The polls and wires might be something people are not in favour of but it is not enough to change a vote. How many people would protest the decision aside from the employees?

  11. OC

    Stephen Loosley is writing for that labor bastion, the Spectator.

    I think he is also about to spruin a book he has written about what the second term of a Lincoln government might have been like. His first audience will be the regular ALP voters of the Australian club

  12. ESJ or OL
    Wasn’t he expelled after falling out with Joe?
    I saw him and O’Toole turn up one night at Kingswood South branch with 20 + Philippine IT workers who had suddenly found a great desire to become members.

  13. I believe it was the honourable senator Hutchins he fell out with first and then with Jim met her sec of the postal workers then Joseph

  14. As an old person Edward,and you too OC, all you have to offer is history.Apparently, according to some lefty singer type person, the times are a changing.Get with it , chappies

  15. So the NSW Labor Party has reformed ol? Yes there is a bridge we have for sale which you might be interested in as well ?

  16. ugly pics of baird and single issue is not enough for this campaign – nsw labor is NOT in a position to throw punches – charm school required along along with any doubts – result should be tighter

  17. Sounds like a solid result, a near on 10% swing against a pretty good government.

    I don’t see any federal implications besides Abbott will lose in 2016

  18. 64% was a freak result reflecting the hatred for the alp in nsw. Question is how much the Sydney liberal marginals like oatley and strathfield swing. Ie is the 10% swing going to be in the Sydney marginals?

  19. Foley has been unimpressive.

    Rather than having some overall coherent policy platform to keep NSW going well, he is stuck with random funding promises.

    The attempt to get some reflected glory from ALP successes in Victoria and Qld by importing their premiers shows a lack of real belief by Foley in his own ability.

    Moreover Foley remains stuck with a team which is too imbued with the older generation; Noreen Hay, Nick Lalich and the old white lawyers in Miranda and Heffron.

    And why parachute Cameron Murphy into Oatley? His CV is incredibly light – head of an organisation (Council of Civil Liberties) for an eternity which had as much influence as the Pedestrian Council of Australia or the Ponds Institute.

  20. I think Foley has been the best that the ALP could have hoped for. He is saddled with a policy (poles and wires) foisted on him by the ETU that curtails any ability to spend in much needed infrastructure – particularly in western Sydney. This is going to stop any real movement back of seats here. I think that the only certain gain for the ALP in Western Sydney is Prospect, with Campbelltown and Londonderry being too close to call.
    The ALP will make gains in Newcastle (Maitland and perhaps Port Stephens) and Central Coast, but their gain here might be limited to Wyong. I think the Nats will struggle to hold Ballina (all about strength of Green prefs) and Tamworth. In a shock I think Barilaro holds Monaro. I would assess the likely seat count at the moment as somewhere in the 54/35/4 range. Could change this week, but probably not dramatically.

  21. My prediction:

    L/NP 49 seats
    ALP 42 seats
    And 2 independents

    2PP result will be about 51-49 in favour of the coalition

  22. Welcome back, U S! Since Queensland, have you been paralysed by uncontrollable giggling or away on a cruise, paid for by your winnings? I think your prediction is pretty near the mark – unless Tony Can’t-Help-Himself says something so stupid and offensive that it torpedoes the Liberal ‘brand’ just in time for polling day

  23. Cameron won a rank & file ballot. This is looking a bit like 1991 Labor recovery in heartland but Libs holding line in middle-class suburbs. What’s Baird done to alienate those who voted Carr/Iemma on managerial lines? Hence Labor struggling in Strathfield. Qld result was a bit like this as well with LNP losing less ground in middle-class Brisbane but Newmann alienated voters unlike Baird.

  24. Geoff Robinson

    [What’s Baird done to alienate those who voted Carr/Iemma on managerial lines?]

    Being in the same party as Tony Abbott.

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