The Fairfax papers have a new Ipsos poll for New South Wales, and while the headline two-party result of 54-46 is well in line with other pollsters, it’s based on a respondent-allocated preference flow that goes remarkably heavily to Labor. The Coalition lead on the primary vote is a highly pronounced 47% to 32%, with the Greens at an uncommonly high 13%. Based on 2011 election preferences, the Coalition lead blows out to 58-42. The two distinguishing traits of the poll stronger results for the Coalition than other pollsters, and a big gap between the two preference methods have also been evident in Ipsos’s federal polling. The accompanying report in the Australian Financial Review seems to have gone offline, but it’s a safe bet the poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1000 (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports in comments it was a bigger-than-usual pre-election sample of 1233).
UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here. Mike Baird’s approval is steady since the previous poll of February 5-7 at 60%, with disapproval up four to 22%. Luke Foley’s undecided rating is down from 49% to 32%, with more breaking the way of disapproval (up 11 to 32%) than approval (up seven to 37%). Baird’s lead as preferred premier is little changed, shifting from 54-24 to 56-27.
UPDATE 2 (Galaxy electorate polls): The Daily Telegraph has Galaxy automated phone polls from three electorates, conducted on Thursday from samples of around 550, which show the following:
The Liberals with a 51-49 lead in Campbelltown, where their margin is 6.8%. The primary votes are 45% for the Liberals (45.5% in 2011), 41% for Labor (34.0%) and 7% for the Greens (6.4%). My poll tracking model, which starts from an assumption of uniform swings in metropolitan and non-metropolitan seats based on breakdowns for such results from Ipsos and Lonergan, has the Liberals at 49.3% in this seat on previous election preferences, and 47.9% on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated flows.
The Liberals with a 52-48 lead in Coogee, where the margin is 8.3%. Primary votes are 46% for the Liberals (47.6%), 35% for Labor (25.8%) and 17% for the Greens (21.4%). The BludgerTrack model rates this one as lineball, the Liberals at 50.8% on previous election preference and 50.2% on respondent-allocated.
The Liberals with a 51-49 lead in The Entrance, where the margin is 11.8%. Primary votes are 46% for the Liberals (50.6%), 40% for Labor (29.8%) and 10% for the Greens (10.8%). That sits well with BludgerTrack’s reading of 51.1%, but that turns into 49.2% on respondent-allocated preferences.
UPDATE (24/3): No surprises in the latest Morgan SMS poll, which has both major parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 45.5% and Labor to 32.5%, and the Greens up half a point to 12%, for a Coalition two-party lead of 56-44, up from 55.5-44.5. The poll was conducted from Saturday to Monday with a sample of 1211.