BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

Not much doing in the world of federal polling this week, but there’s quite a bit to report on the preselection front.

It’s been as quiet a week as they come so far as federal polling is concerned, with only the reliable weekly Essential Research to keep us amused. Newspoll and Roy Morgan were both in an off week in their fortnightly cycles, and neither Galaxy nor ReachTEL stepped forward to fill the gap, presumably because their clients at News Corporation and the Seven Network blew their budget on double-up polls during the Liberal leadership excitement in early February. Since the Essential Research result landed well on trend, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has recorded only the most negligible of changes on voting intention, with the marginal exception of a 0.3% lift for the Greens. Labor also makes a gain on the seat projection, having tipped over the line for a seventh seat in Western Australia (do keep in mind though that the electoral furniture there will shortly be rearranged by the redistribution to accommodate the state’s newly acquired entitlement to sixteenth seat).

If an absence of polling is a problem for you, you can at least enjoy yesterday’s semi-regular state voting intention results from Roy Morgan, based on SMS polling of samples ranging from 432 in Tasmania to 1287 in New South Wales. These have Labor leading 56-44 in Victoria, 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, 53-47 in South Australia and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (not that two-party preferred means anything under Hare-Clark). However, the recently defeated Liberal National Party is credited with an improbable 51-49 lead in Queensland. New South Wales is not included in the mix as the result was published a day before the rest, which you can read all about on my latest state election thread.

In other news, federal preselection action is beginning to warm up, spurred in part by the possibility that Liberal leadership turmoil might cause the election to be held well ahead of schedule. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Labor “has ordered its state and territory branches to urgently preselect parliamentary candidates by the end of June”, with exemptions for New South Wales and Western Australia owing to their looming redistributions (the latter process is presently at the stage of receiving public suggestions, which may be submitted by April 10). Some notable happenings on that count:

• Labor has conducted local ballots for preselections in the three Victorian seats it lost to the Liberals in 2013. Darren Cheeseman appears to have failed in his bid for another crack at Corangamite, where the ballot was won by Libby Coker, a Surf Coast councillor and former mayor who ran in Polwarth at the November state election. Also in the field was Tony White, an economic development manager at Colac Otway Shire and former adviser to various ministers and premiers in Bracks-Brumby ogvernment. In La Trobe, former Casey councillor Simon Curtis outpaced the rather higher profile Damien Kingsbury, the director of La Trobe University’s Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights. The vote in Deakin was won by Tony Clarke, of whom I can’t tell you much. It now remains for the state party’s public office selection committee to determine its 50% share of the vote total, but the talk seems to be that Coker in particular is home and hosed.

• Joe Ludwig, who has held a Queensland Senate seat for Labor since 1999, has announced he will not seek another term at the next election. He is set to be succeeded by Anthony Chisholm, the party’s state secretary from 2008 until 2014, when the Left’s unprecedented success in scoring majority control at the party’s state conference caused the position to pass to Evan Moorhead. Chisholm was given the short-term and now-expired role as director of the state election campaign, and also has Left faction support to fill Ludwig’s position, which remains in the hands of the AWU/Labor Forum faction. A potential rival contender was Chisholm’s predecessor as state secretary, Cameron Milner, but AWU support consolidated behind Chisholm in part because he had the backing of Wayne Swan, which reportedly led to a falling out between Swan and Milner. For more on both Swan and Milner, see further below.

• There is also a widely held expectation that Ludwig will shortly be joined in the departure lounge by the Left faction’s Jan McLucas, the other Queensland Labor Senator due to face the voters at the next half-Senate election. The favourite to replace her is Murray Watt, a Bligh government minister who lost his seat of Everton in the 2012 landslide, and more recently a lawyer with Maurice Blackburn. However, Michael McKenna of The Australian reports this could raise affirmative action issues, with Townsville mayor Jenny Hill mooted as an alternative contender if so. Another aspirant mentioned in McKenna’s report is Michael Ravbar, state secretary of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union.

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that Wayne Swan and Bernie Ripoll are “being stalked as targets of possible preselection challenges”. In Swan’s inner northern Brisbane seat of Lilley, the aforementioned Cameron Milner is said to be “considering” a challenge to the former Treasurer. On the western side of town in Oxley, Brisbane City Council opposition leader Milton Dick is “preparing to roll Mr Ripoll”, and has “cross-factional support” to do so.

• The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella is keen to run again in Indi, which she famously lost in 2013 to independent Cathy McGowan. However, the report says the party is “deeply pessimistic about the chance of regaining the seat, and the contest is complicated by the Nationals being able to contest it”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,093 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 57 of 62
1 … 56 57 58 … 62

  2. Tom the first and best@2794

    2776

    It is not about not seeing the Sub-Continent as not Asian.

    It is because Australia, the USA, New Zealand and to a lesser extent Canada, East Asians far outnumber Asians from the Sub-Continent and thus when people of these nations refer to Asians they tend to be referring to East Asians.

    The British on the other hand have a much higher population from the Sub-Continent compared with their East Asian population and thus tend to use Asian to describe them and also they are more aware of the divisions between Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities and thus less likely to use Indian as a generic term.

    This is largely due to East Asia being closer to Australia, the USA, Canada and New Zealand and thus having higher historic immigration rates from these nations. While the UK is further from East Asia and has a significant history of immigration from the Sub-Continent because of the colonial and Commonwealth links.

    I know I’m being pedantic, but with the recent growth trend showing a sharp increase in the number of sub-continent migrants, the number of East Asian and Subcontinent migrants are somewhat neck to neck. Old habits die hard, and sometimes I even have to remind people that I’m of Asian stock (coming from neither of these two regions above).

    I think that in Britain, they would generally refer to the entire group of people from the sub-continent as Asian because prior to the partition of India and later Pakistan, people coming from different regions would be strongly “nationalistic” to where they are from. Someone from Bengal for example might be offended if asked if they’re from Punjabi.

    Funny situation I can recall: Once, when I was talking to some friends of Lebanese stock, they mentioned Asians and I reminded them that they are technically Asians too. They denied this, so I asked what racial geographical region they’re from and they reluctantly said Asian.. It was all in jest though. It started off because they jokingly misunderstood what I was.

  3. Raara

    “Asian” means something completely different to what the rest of the western world considers what “Asian” means.

    I suspect I was being ‘difficult’ on the morning. The ‘standard’ Police description not useful at all. FFS.

  4. CTar1

    Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

    Raara

    “Asian” means something completely different to what the rest of the western world considers what “Asian” means.

    I suspect I was being ‘difficult’ on the morning. The ‘standard’ Police description not useful at all. FFS.

    Lucky they don’t carry guns.

    They’re not renowned for their sense of humour.
    🙂

  5. Interesting screw up with my younger brothers situation this morning,

    My younger brother called the court house regarding court (he sent a email regarding the court to be adjourned like a week ago – and got a reply back saying judge will make a decision regarding this but no further information), and he found out that there was a an arrest warrant for him, so once again go down to the court to see what the hell was going on.

    He found out it was a screw up in their system, and he was able to get court adjourned like he wanted to.

    Meanwhile, he get’s screwed around, his ex-wife is getting away with alot of things regarding the 3 kids.

  7. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/numbers-inside-liberal-party-swing-in-favour-of-marriage-equality-as-email-campaign-hots-up-20150323-1m5gop.html

    Queensland Coalition MP Andrew Laming, who supports a free vote but not same-sex marriage, said that he had a spam filter to deal with emails.

    “It goes straight through to a spam filter and into a large folder,” he told Fairfax Media, adding that if correspondents were not from his electorate, they were ignored.

    How does he makes his spam filter be so complex that it is able to differentiate between those coming from his electorate and those that doesn’t?

  8. 2782
    briefly

    The LNP intend to borrow a further $5.2 bill this week, bringing total issues at March 28 to more than $368 bill. As well, since the Commonwealth investments have been falling since the LNP came to power, net debt will have increased since September 2013 by more than $100 billion by the end of this week. In 18 months in power, the LNP have increased net Commonwealth debt by 50%. By the time of the election next year, they will have doubled net debt.

    Net debt will soon exceed the previous peak of 18.5% of GDP reached in 1995/6, following the 1990/1 global recessions, which was followed by large scale Commonwealth asset sales.

    One could be excused for thinking they are deliberately manufacturing an(other) bogus emergency catastrophopanic to justify selling off everything public to their corporate mates in a giant firesale to vulture capitalists.

    Their aim, IMHO, is not to balance the budget, but to bankrupt the government and thus render it impotent, particularly seeing as the next government is likely to be Labor.

  9. Raaraa

    To add to the fact that in the UK, “Asian” means something completely different

    That was the fun of playing with the Police. Even as an Anglo I can pick a Southern Chinese from a Korean or a Thai. Let alone Indian/Pakistanis.

    FMD, I don’t take any notice, in Sydney and Canberra, just part of the landscape.

  10. We Aussies should simply declare ourselves to be part of Asia and, therefore, that we are Asians.

    Pedants might insist that some of us are Caucasian Asians, but who gives a rat’s?

  18. guytaur

    Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    BW

    That would mean that Asia would have two continents

    It can be technically argued that Australia and India are part of the same continental/oceanic plate system.

    So if the Indian subcontinent is part of Asia, then Australia is too.

  19. @sara_jade_

    @niallclugston @randlight I think they saw through him well before , preferred denial. Jobs , status.

    Frednk 2814

    An explanation on why the jurnos don’t call Abbott out from the original tweeter

  21. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/23/nsw-election-result-could-be-challenged-over-ivote-security-flaw

    NSW election result could be challenged over iVote security flaw
    ‘Major vulnerability’ revealed in the online voting system could have compromised 66,000 electronic votes
    Michael Safi and Gabrielle Chan
    Monday 23 March 2015 14.47 AEDT

    The result of the NSW election this Saturday is likely to be challenged after a security flaw was identified that could potentially have compromised 66,000 electronic votes.

    A number of parties, including the Greens, the National party and the Outdoor Recreation party have told Guardian Australia they would consider all of their options after the “major vulnerability” was revealed in the iVote system, an internet voting program being trialled for the first time this year.

    But a senior NSW Electoral Commission official said fears of vote tampering were overblown and the work of “well-funded, well-managed, anti-internet voting lobby groups”.

    While the iVote website itself is secure, Melbourne University security specialist Vanessa Teague discovered on Friday that it loaded javascript from a third-party website that was “vulnerable to an attack called the FREAK attack”.

  22. So if the Indian subcontinent is part of Asia, then Australia is too.

    Not really. They went their somewhat separate ways some considerable time ago. 🙂

  23. Raaraa,

    If you watch the video attached to the story Laming says they sort the emails by postcode and he only responds to . those who reside in his electorate.

  24. Steve777

    Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    We don’t normally refer to people from the Middle East or that part of Russia East of the Urals as ‘Asian’.

    By referring to a person as being from the Middle East is calling them Asian, you are just being more specific in what part of Asia they are from.

    It’s the same as referring to someone from SE Asia, Borneo or Nepal.

    Sorry, I know I’m being pedantic if you changed, ‘refer to’ to ‘think of’, I think you would have a statement that fits more of the population.

  25. So we’re expecting a newspoll (wow) tonight? Will there also be a Morgan/Reachtel? Or will they focus on NSW this week?

  27. Morgan showing significant move to Labor this week.

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes · 2m2 minutes ago
    View translation
    #Morgan Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (-2.5) ALP 56 (+2.5) #auspol

  33. 2824

    The term Middle East also often refers to Egypt, which is in Africa.

    It is also based on a western European perspective.

  34. Shanghai Stock Exchange on a tear again – particularly Tech Stocks – see the white line in the lower panel of the link below – up 67% in about 10 weeks (the stock exchange closed for a week or so during Chinese New Year).

    The Charts show ROC – ie percentage change for the 10 GICS Industry Indices. Cyclicals in top panel, Non Cyclicals, bottom panel.

    Current calender year on the right hand side and last year on the left.

    Financial stocks lagging this year so far – red line top panel.

  37. 2808
    Just Me

    Their aim, IMHO, is not to balance the budget, but to bankrupt the government and thus render it impotent, particularly seeing as the next government is likely to be Labor.

    If they can’t balance the budget by cutting spending, they will allow debt to increase. They will do anything to avoid significant increases in taxes on their sponsors. If that means a fiscal blow-out, that’s just too bad by their lights.

  40. From Mark Kenny’s piece:

    And second, that particular story, Bishop’s supporters believed, had been surgically placed with a reporter known for his authoritative links to the senior-most levels of the Abbott government.

    Who’s that reporter? I think I’ve missed something.

  42. Gary Morgan, come on down…

    Finding No. 6138– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, March 14/15 & 21/22, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,146 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.
    ALP support increased to 56% (up 2.5%), still well clear of the L-NP 44% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, March 14/15 & 21/22, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,146 Australian electors aged 18+.

    Primary support for the ALP increased to 40% (up 2%) now ahead of the L-NP 38% (down 1%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 11% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 1.5% (down 0.5%) while Independents/ Others were 9.5% (unchanged.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6138-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-march-23-2015-201503230703

  43. Tom the first and best

    Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

    2824

    The term Middle East also often refers to Egypt, which is in Africa.

    It is also based on a western European perspective.

    The Sinai is part of Asia making Egypt one of the few countries that span two continents, Africa and Asia.

  44. Bishop’s eye rolling and impressive face palming led the CH10 News at 5 “behind Hockey’s back”

    And tucked away under a PHIL Hudson byline on the GG web site is an article entitled “Senate voting system has to change..”

    Enjoy your day in the sun, micros. You are about to see some bi-partisanship in action.

  45. 2839
    victoria

    Mark Kenny has his say on JBishop’s eye roll today

    Hockey is such a pea-brain. This is one time I’m with Bishop, J.

  46. Former St Joseph’s master was jailed last week for sexual assault.

    He had beaten multiple like charges from six complainants 10 years ago after the complainants had potentially contaminated their evidence by talking with each other before the case.

  47. Re TTF$B @2833: even what we refer to today as ‘continents’ is a convention based on a European perspective, dating to antiquity.

    In is obvious looking at a map of the World that Europe is the Western part of Asia, not a separate continent. To the ancient Greeks, there were three big land masses – the one to their North that they were on; the one to the South separated from them by the ‘Middle Earth’ (Mediterranean) Sea; and the one to the East, separated from them by the Agean, Bosphorus and Black Sea (which as far as the knew extended to the far North).

  50. They will do anything to avoid significant increases in taxes on their sponsors. If that means a fiscal blow-out, that’s just too bad by their lights.

    That has certainly been what they have indicated so far. But….its becoming as obvious as Hockeys incompetence and Abbotts dickheadedness that this is NOT a sustainable position in the long term.

    Even SEVERE and politically damaging cuts to public spending just are not going to do it in terms of running something like a balanced budget, even in the medium term. I think that the Govt are going to well and truly get slapped in the face with this if they try a benign and “boring” budget this year, particularly after the 2013/14 BUDGET EMERGENCY scare campaign and the unfairness they tried to impose in 2014.

    The Libs position is getting so absurd and disconnected from any objective reality that it actually means that there is some opportunity for the ALP to propose some modest revenue measures that look more to the long term in the lead up to the next election. They can take the quite reasonable position that no, its not a fiscal emergency and if we make a modest start on tackling it now, in a FAIR manner, that looks at BOTH spending and revenue, it wont become one.

Comments Page 57 of 62
1 … 56 57 58 … 62

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *