It’s been as quiet a week as they come so far as federal polling is concerned, with only the reliable weekly Essential Research to keep us amused. Newspoll and Roy Morgan were both in an off week in their fortnightly cycles, and neither Galaxy nor ReachTEL stepped forward to fill the gap, presumably because their clients at News Corporation and the Seven Network blew their budget on double-up polls during the Liberal leadership excitement in early February. Since the Essential Research result landed well on trend, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has recorded only the most negligible of changes on voting intention, with the marginal exception of a 0.3% lift for the Greens. Labor also makes a gain on the seat projection, having tipped over the line for a seventh seat in Western Australia (do keep in mind though that the electoral furniture there will shortly be rearranged by the redistribution to accommodate the state’s newly acquired entitlement to sixteenth seat).
If an absence of polling is a problem for you, you can at least enjoy yesterday’s semi-regular state voting intention results from Roy Morgan, based on SMS polling of samples ranging from 432 in Tasmania to 1287 in New South Wales. These have Labor leading 56-44 in Victoria, 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, 53-47 in South Australia and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (not that two-party preferred means anything under Hare-Clark). However, the recently defeated Liberal National Party is credited with an improbable 51-49 lead in Queensland. New South Wales is not included in the mix as the result was published a day before the rest, which you can read all about on my latest state election thread.
In other news, federal preselection action is beginning to warm up, spurred in part by the possibility that Liberal leadership turmoil might cause the election to be held well ahead of schedule. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Labor “has ordered its state and territory branches to urgently preselect parliamentary candidates by the end of June”, with exemptions for New South Wales and Western Australia owing to their looming redistributions (the latter process is presently at the stage of receiving public suggestions, which may be submitted by April 10). Some notable happenings on that count:
• Labor has conducted local ballots for preselections in the three Victorian seats it lost to the Liberals in 2013. Darren Cheeseman appears to have failed in his bid for another crack at Corangamite, where the ballot was won by Libby Coker, a Surf Coast councillor and former mayor who ran in Polwarth at the November state election. Also in the field was Tony White, an economic development manager at Colac Otway Shire and former adviser to various ministers and premiers in Bracks-Brumby ogvernment. In La Trobe, former Casey councillor Simon Curtis outpaced the rather higher profile Damien Kingsbury, the director of La Trobe University’s Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights. The vote in Deakin was won by Tony Clarke, of whom I can’t tell you much. It now remains for the state party’s public office selection committee to determine its 50% share of the vote total, but the talk seems to be that Coker in particular is home and hosed.
• Joe Ludwig, who has held a Queensland Senate seat for Labor since 1999, has announced he will not seek another term at the next election. He is set to be succeeded by Anthony Chisholm, the party’s state secretary from 2008 until 2014, when the Left’s unprecedented success in scoring majority control at the party’s state conference caused the position to pass to Evan Moorhead. Chisholm was given the short-term and now-expired role as director of the state election campaign, and also has Left faction support to fill Ludwig’s position, which remains in the hands of the AWU/Labor Forum faction. A potential rival contender was Chisholm’s predecessor as state secretary, Cameron Milner, but AWU support consolidated behind Chisholm in part because he had the backing of Wayne Swan, which reportedly led to a falling out between Swan and Milner. For more on both Swan and Milner, see further below.
• There is also a widely held expectation that Ludwig will shortly be joined in the departure lounge by the Left faction’s Jan McLucas, the other Queensland Labor Senator due to face the voters at the next half-Senate election. The favourite to replace her is Murray Watt, a Bligh government minister who lost his seat of Everton in the 2012 landslide, and more recently a lawyer with Maurice Blackburn. However, Michael McKenna of The Australian reports this could raise affirmative action issues, with Townsville mayor Jenny Hill mooted as an alternative contender if so. Another aspirant mentioned in McKenna’s report is Michael Ravbar, state secretary of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that Wayne Swan and Bernie Ripoll are “being stalked as targets of possible preselection challenges”. In Swan’s inner northern Brisbane seat of Lilley, the aforementioned Cameron Milner is said to be “considering” a challenge to the former Treasurer. On the western side of town in Oxley, Brisbane City Council opposition leader Milton Dick is “preparing to roll Mr Ripoll”, and has “cross-factional support” to do so.
• The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella is keen to run again in Indi, which she famously lost in 2013 to independent Cathy McGowan. However, the report says the party is “deeply pessimistic about the chance of regaining the seat, and the contest is complicated by the Nationals being able to contest it”.
Victoria
Sorry for doubling up.
Great emoji face from JBishop.
imacca
[how that may affect the framing of the Budget??]
HoJo will ignore them and just write his own crap.
Right at the end of the ABC’s video of hockey bishop looks across to the other side and raises the eyebrows. I wonder what that was in response to.
[ HoJo will ignore them and just write his own crap. ]
🙂 Betcha he tells everybody its Treasuries crap though.
I’m really just wondering if we may see more in the way of leaks this year than is normal?? Depending on the NSW result (i think the Libs will win ) April could be a pretty chaotic month for the Libs if they take a big hit in terms of seat numbers there.
Juiciest result in NSW would be a minority Lib Govt. 🙂 Not that i think it would happen but i can dream huh?
HoJo going on about the establishment of the Expenditure Revue Committee …
… When Phillip Lynch became Treasurer the first order of business was to order $25,000 of stationary for his Office.
imacca
[ Betcha he tells everybody its Treasuries crap though. ]
Standard.
rossmcg
Dont be silly. 🙂
http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20120710-greeces-island-of-the-gods
BTW Take a look at this, alhough so touristy now unfortuately.
Ask
@sprocket what he thinks also
Interestingly, almost every time in here a Laborist describes Greens supporters as knowing everything, taking the high moral ground, preaching etc, etc, they betray a remarkable lack of self-awareness. Recent case no exception.
CTar1@2742
To add to the fact that in the UK, “Asian” means something completely different to what the rest of the western world considers what “Asian” means. Not sure if this is still the case.
Raaraa
In what way is there a difference between how the Brits describe Asians and other western nations?
Some support for marriage equality in liberal party
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/numbers-inside-liberal-party-swing-in-favour-of-marriage-equality-as-email-campaign-hots-up-20150323-1m5gop.html
abuses of workers on 457 visas continue to emerge, the Senate is expected to announce a new inquiry into the temporary migration system, possibly as early as today.
Labor late last week foreshadowed a motion for a new inquiry in the Senate, following months of lobbying by unions and migrant community organisations.
http://workinglife.org.au/2015/03/23/ongoing-rorts-prompt-new-457-visa-inquiry/
Too late I’m afraid…
UBS, a key adviser on the Baird government’s partial privatisation of the electricity network, is facing scrutiny from the corporate regulator over changes to a research report about the sale published by the investment bank.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has requested information about the operation of the bank’s “Chinese Wall” – designed to separate its advisory and research arms – ASIC chairman Greg Medcraft confirmed on Monday.
Hopefully the NSW Upper House will look deeply at any Privatisation proposal ( I maen Asset Recycling ) before passing the legislation, if it’s shonky they can reject it
Then Mike you can go to plan “B”… oh that’s right there is no plan B.
Martin B
Don’t waste yourself on Australian Labor Phillistines.
SYRIZA needs you!
Link to 2765
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-looking-into-ubs-following-changes-to-nsw-power-sale-critique-20150323-1m5jhi.html
Yes Singapore is a one party state with few consessions on matter of rights and civil liberties….but…on the positive side nowhere in Asia is as safe for locals or the visitor,and everything if first class…splendid pubiuc transport,spotlessly clean facilities,safe food and water sand a truly “garden city” like no others…and the world’s best airport.that shames Sydney slum-airport or the shaby chaos of LA
We went there a few years ago to the Garden Show and not only the display but every green space was decked out for the event
MB
[In what way is there a difference between how the Brits describe Asians and other western nations?]
In Britain it nearly always means someone from the subcontinent, rather than someone from China, Indo-China, Kapan, Indonesia etc
Japan
mexicanbeemer@2762
I was told “Asians” refer to those of Indian subcontinent stock when you speak to a Briton, while it generally refers to those of East Asian origin if you speak to an American for example.
Technically, they’re both correct. One of my pet peeves is hearing someone say “Indian and Asian”.
ajm
Thanks, in others words the former colonies.
Raaraa
Thanks
I was suspecting it would be something like that but wasn’t sure.
how very British
Snap ajm
[mexicanbeemer
Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 2:29 pm | Permalink
Raaraa
In what way is there a difference between how the Brits describe Asians and other western nations?
]
The Brits see Asia as the Indian region where the Far East is more in line with what we think of as Asia.
I would dispute ‘other western nations’, I think this statement holds for Australia.
Barney in Saigon
Thanks
Yes I didn’t finish the question off properly.
Maybe Bishop can have them check Joe’s metadata
The foreign minister, Julie Bishop, will investigate the source of a leak foreshadowing further cuts to foreign aid in the budget.
About $11bn has been already been slashed from the foreign aid budget, and an article in the Australian on Monday said funding would be cut again in this year’s budget
sceptic
@2765
Is Luke Foley and Labor saying much about this development?
BW: unlike some in here, I do not see the ALP/Greens border as marking out the grounds of political wisdom, with all virtue on one side and none on the others. Like most supporters of both I see continuities between them as well as differences. I have posted before that some of my friends who I most admire politically are in the ALP, although ultimately I make different judgements to them. I find breathless Greens denouncing of all ALP members as sellouts to be as tiresome as ALP cliches about näive, unrealistic, extreme, holier-than-thou etc.
Of course we can always count on some posters to provide a special level of tiresome.
Qanda tonight
Fiona Nash – Nationals Senator for NSW
Joel Fitzgibbon – Shadow Minister for Agriculture
Troy Cassar-Daley – Award-winning Country Musician
Robyn Clubb – Treasurer,Royal Agricultural Society of NSW and Orchardist
Rob Cook – Fourth generation cattleman
[2746
victoria
the kouk on twitter
Government debt has hit $363 billion: Up $90 billion since election. Quite remarkable given @MathiasCormann says the economy is ‘strong’]
The LNP intend to borrow a further $5.2 bill this week, bringing total issues at March 28 to more than $368 bill. As well, since the Commonwealth investments have been falling since the LNP came to power, net debt will have increased since September 2013 by more than $100 billion by the end of this week. In 18 months in power, the LNP have increased net Commonwealth debt by 50%. By the time of the election next year, they will have doubled net debt.
Net debt will soon exceed the previous peak of 18.5% of GDP reached in 1995/6, following the 1990/1 global recessions, which was followed by large scale Commonwealth asset sales.
The LNP have Hellenic Fiscal Disorder. They might talk about fiscal righteousness, but they do not believe in national solvency if that also means imposing taxes on their sponsors.
Victoria
My guess only if 7.30 Report pick it up, given their stupid National Monday to Thursday, Friday local format … not likely
They still believe the Liberal Magic Pixie Dust will save em briefly.
mari
[BTW Take a look at this, alhough so touristy now unfortuately.]
Too f#cken’ hot for me in the European Summer.
If I’m nearby it will be the breezy hill behind Menton.
[2784
ratsak
They still believe the Liberal Magic Pixie Dust will save em briefly.]
Seems so, ratsak. Labor managed to avert a terrible recession, grow the economy and employment, get the fiscal trajectory in line and fund important social programs. This mob are sowing destruction.
Victoria.. What’s with Q&A panel selection, do they belive musicians & comedians have some special insight into issues.
That’s one myth we need to end.
Why not have scientists , historians, sociologists & philosophers on?
Q&A should do its bit to end the cult of celebrity.
QandA looks like one to be avoided.
sceptic
I guess musicians and comedians are more entertaining
No wonder JulieB shook her head about the Razor Gang. She’s not on it.
@Victoria/2764
I been arguing about 457 visa rort for ages, need to be stopped.
victoria
Some of them are plain clueless. I mean, just because you can play an instrument…
sceptic
[Why not have scientists , historians, sociologists & philosophers on?]
That would PROVE to the trolls that ABC is leftist 😉
2776
It is not about not seeing the Sub-Continent as not Asian.
It is because Australia, the USA, New Zealand and to a lesser extent Canada, East Asians far outnumber Asians from the Sub-Continent and thus when people of these nations refer to Asians they tend to be referring to East Asians.
The British on the other hand have a much higher population from the Sub-Continent compared with their East Asian population and thus tend to use Asian to describe them and also they are more aware of the divisions between Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities and thus less likely to use Indian as a generic term.
This is largely due to East Asia being closer to Australia, the USA, Canada and New Zealand and thus having higher historic immigration rates from these nations. While the UK is further from East Asia and has a significant history of immigration from the Sub-Continent because of the colonial and Commonwealth links.
foley is not connected to public – i think ex union folk can talk in confidence to converted – this is not queensland – foley had great opportunity and is entrusted by non liberals to do well – what was other post robertson candidate? is this the leader we were meant to have? with all anti abbott mood foley will drag labor vote down actually
Bloody little Hunt tells lies in order to politicise carbon emissions. I though he had some small streak of environmental honesty left in him, but it seems not.
[The environment minister, Greg Hunt, said the previous projections had been “Labor’s numbers” and that the lower projections were “because Labor’s numbers exaggerated the abatement task by more than a billion tonnes of emissions”.
“Labor used these figures in an attempt to justify the world’s largest carbon tax that hurt families and businesses by pushing up electricity prices,” Hunt said.
The former Liberal leader John Hewson said the official projections were, and always had been, produced by the environment department based on the best available evidence at the time.
“Both parties have always based their policies on these projections. To try to politicise them in this way is enormously counterproductive and damaging to the national interest,” Hewson said.
Professor Ross Garnaut, Labor’s former climate change adviser, said there was “nothing at all political in the change in trajectory … these figures have been produced in the same way since the Howard years”.]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/23/climate-change-coalition-accused-of-politicising-greenhouse-gas-target
“Labor used these figures in an attempt to justify the world’s largest carbon tax that hurt families and businesses by pushing up electricity prices,” Hunt said.
Did somebody mention Dr Goebbels last week?
geoffrey
You might be correct about public perception about Luke, however this interview for Sunday Brunch on 702 is worth a quick listen
http://blogs.abc.net.au/files/tx-brunch-foley-22-march.mp3
CTAR1
Your favourite place in France?
Agree in July August especially the black beaches of Santorini are awful. I havn’t been there for about 10 years as too touristy for me, but it is the most beautiful island in Greece that I have seen. Especially 25 years ago when I first saw it coming in on the ferry and it was just starting to take off.
[Martin B
Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 2:57 pm | Permalink
BW: unlike some in here, I do not see the ALP/Greens border as marking out the grounds of political wisdom, with all virtue on one side and none on the others. Like most supporters of both I see continuities between them as well as differences. I have posted before that some of my friends who I most admire politically are in the ALP, although ultimately I make different judgements to them. I find breathless Greens denouncing of all ALP members as sellouts to be as tiresome as ALP cliches about näive, unrealistic, extreme, holier-than-thou etc.
Of course we can always count on some posters to provide a special level of tiresome.]
I can’t recall a single Greens ever stating on Bludger that they had been wrong about something. Ever.
I certainly have not seen a single Greens SYRIZAN rah rah merchant admit that they got SYRIZAN bad faith fundamentally wrong, either.
The Greens cannot even admit the remotest possibility that they are helping the Left to eat itself.
As for all the Laborities, we know that some of them are wrong about Rudd and the rest of them are wrong about Gillard.
It is only the Informal Party that has truly kept itself pure of heart, full of wisdom, the repository of policy righteousness, and totally free of the grubby stuff involved when there is a sniff of power in the offing.