It’s been as quiet a week as they come so far as federal polling is concerned, with only the reliable weekly Essential Research to keep us amused. Newspoll and Roy Morgan were both in an off week in their fortnightly cycles, and neither Galaxy nor ReachTEL stepped forward to fill the gap, presumably because their clients at News Corporation and the Seven Network blew their budget on double-up polls during the Liberal leadership excitement in early February. Since the Essential Research result landed well on trend, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has recorded only the most negligible of changes on voting intention, with the marginal exception of a 0.3% lift for the Greens. Labor also makes a gain on the seat projection, having tipped over the line for a seventh seat in Western Australia (do keep in mind though that the electoral furniture there will shortly be rearranged by the redistribution to accommodate the state’s newly acquired entitlement to sixteenth seat).
If an absence of polling is a problem for you, you can at least enjoy yesterday’s semi-regular state voting intention results from Roy Morgan, based on SMS polling of samples ranging from 432 in Tasmania to 1287 in New South Wales. These have Labor leading 56-44 in Victoria, 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, 53-47 in South Australia and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (not that two-party preferred means anything under Hare-Clark). However, the recently defeated Liberal National Party is credited with an improbable 51-49 lead in Queensland. New South Wales is not included in the mix as the result was published a day before the rest, which you can read all about on my latest state election thread.
In other news, federal preselection action is beginning to warm up, spurred in part by the possibility that Liberal leadership turmoil might cause the election to be held well ahead of schedule. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Labor “has ordered its state and territory branches to urgently preselect parliamentary candidates by the end of June”, with exemptions for New South Wales and Western Australia owing to their looming redistributions (the latter process is presently at the stage of receiving public suggestions, which may be submitted by April 10). Some notable happenings on that count:
• Labor has conducted local ballots for preselections in the three Victorian seats it lost to the Liberals in 2013. Darren Cheeseman appears to have failed in his bid for another crack at Corangamite, where the ballot was won by Libby Coker, a Surf Coast councillor and former mayor who ran in Polwarth at the November state election. Also in the field was Tony White, an economic development manager at Colac Otway Shire and former adviser to various ministers and premiers in Bracks-Brumby ogvernment. In La Trobe, former Casey councillor Simon Curtis outpaced the rather higher profile Damien Kingsbury, the director of La Trobe University’s Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights. The vote in Deakin was won by Tony Clarke, of whom I can’t tell you much. It now remains for the state party’s public office selection committee to determine its 50% share of the vote total, but the talk seems to be that Coker in particular is home and hosed.
• Joe Ludwig, who has held a Queensland Senate seat for Labor since 1999, has announced he will not seek another term at the next election. He is set to be succeeded by Anthony Chisholm, the party’s state secretary from 2008 until 2014, when the Left’s unprecedented success in scoring majority control at the party’s state conference caused the position to pass to Evan Moorhead. Chisholm was given the short-term and now-expired role as director of the state election campaign, and also has Left faction support to fill Ludwig’s position, which remains in the hands of the AWU/Labor Forum faction. A potential rival contender was Chisholm’s predecessor as state secretary, Cameron Milner, but AWU support consolidated behind Chisholm in part because he had the backing of Wayne Swan, which reportedly led to a falling out between Swan and Milner. For more on both Swan and Milner, see further below.
• There is also a widely held expectation that Ludwig will shortly be joined in the departure lounge by the Left faction’s Jan McLucas, the other Queensland Labor Senator due to face the voters at the next half-Senate election. The favourite to replace her is Murray Watt, a Bligh government minister who lost his seat of Everton in the 2012 landslide, and more recently a lawyer with Maurice Blackburn. However, Michael McKenna of The Australian reports this could raise affirmative action issues, with Townsville mayor Jenny Hill mooted as an alternative contender if so. Another aspirant mentioned in McKenna’s report is Michael Ravbar, state secretary of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that Wayne Swan and Bernie Ripoll are “being stalked as targets of possible preselection challenges”. In Swan’s inner northern Brisbane seat of Lilley, the aforementioned Cameron Milner is said to be “considering” a challenge to the former Treasurer. On the western side of town in Oxley, Brisbane City Council opposition leader Milton Dick is “preparing to roll Mr Ripoll”, and has “cross-factional support” to do so.
• The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella is keen to run again in Indi, which she famously lost in 2013 to independent Cathy McGowan. However, the report says the party is “deeply pessimistic about the chance of regaining the seat, and the contest is complicated by the Nationals being able to contest it”.
[This is not correct. Refugees in Indonesia are not “safe” as Indonesia is not a signatory to the convention. Refugees are only safe once they have found a “durable solution”. ]
By this logic, refugees who have permanently been resettled in Nauru, Manus and Cambodia are safe as houses.
[We don’t take refugees from Indonesia because of this the mistaken belief that it will encourage more people to come the region. ]
So take this argument to the UNHCR.
CTar1@2673
I would give him that. My family was never a big fan of him.
adrian@2679
Agreed. Two words: Operation Coldstore.
[Security flaw in New South Wales puts thousands of online votes at risk
We built a proof of concept that illustrates how this problem could be used by an attacker to steal votes. Our proof of concept intercepts and manipulates votes cast to the practise server, though the same attack would also have succeeded against the real voting server. (We checked that the real site used the same vulnerable code, but, of course, we did not attempt to intercept or interfere with any real votes.) The attack works if a voter uses iVote from a malicious network–say, from a WiFi access point that has been infected by malware. In our demonstration, the malicious network injects code that stealthily substitutes a different vote of the attacker’s choosing. We also show how the attacker can steal the voter’s secret PIN and receipt number and send them, together with the voter’s secret ballot choices, to a remote monitoring server.]
https://freedom-to-tinker.com/blog/teaguehalderman/ivote-vulnerability/
victoria@2687
Yes, you are right.
Tony Burke has it on his Facebook which gave me the wrong impression.
It is the sort of stuff the ALP should be producing to mock Tones and Co.
malcolm fraser was up to his neck on vietnam – it is not misleading to compare him to robert macnamara – but unlike latter he has never been given third degree on his moral and political responsibility for that catastrophe – as far as I know (standing to be corrected) he recents of nothing and still believes in the domino effect starting from china – like macnamara he has tried to re-establish himself in more humanitarian causes – yet fraser has got off quite lightly for his role in being america’s lieutenant – he tries to absolve on some issue with american but main game seems intact – we are not up to speed in our national moral responsibility – happy to ride america’s coattail but like in iraq accept little responsibility for the full consequences
as for quote that fraser made on abbott that latter is most dangerous politician this country has known the pot is calling – abbott can only wish for what fraser did – it was only gough’s generosity that fraser’s could reinvent himself – but as far as i know again he recanted nothing for 1975, still pouting nonsense about dysfunctional and overspending govt – the latter was not true, former only because fraser withheld supply –
fraser set up the instability that played out over decades to follow and led to drift to right in both parties and now abbott – his charity work is one thing, his opinions on asylum are only that, at the end of the day he is not an australian good guy, and any nation willing to wipe a slate clean entirely is either morally lightweight, sentimental or political desparate or all three
yes state any good points but some balanced and firm inquiry about full hawkish standing of MF must also be done
@GrogsGamut: What a pigs’ breakfast. Try again, ALP MT @GuardianAus: Data retention: ‘journalist information warrants’ are a crock http://t.co/ad1k6CRi1O
Lee Kuan Yew took a post-colonial shambles, which included large-scale and hideous poverty, and turned it into a modern nation-state in a single generation.
The trade-offs included a very limited democracy, suppression of free speech, and getting jailed for dropping chewing gum on the footpath.
The ‘nation’ is still rickety as exemplified by significant angst around language policies and politics.
The biotic environment has been trashed with many species now extinct on Singapore.
The new challenge is that the newly-minted Singaporean middle class wants democracy and free speech with its prosperity.
Over to Lee’s son.
OMG
I foolishly turned to 24 and got Pyne.
It should not be forgotten that the British had seen no need for any democracy at all in Singapore for two centuries.
Such civic society as existed, existed for the sole purpose of maintaining the Empire.
1. Lee was therefore operating off a zero base.
2. In relation to Singapore, and compared with Churchill, Lee was a raving democratic libertarian.
From the Daily Bizarro:
[MIKE Baird is set to win seats the government never thought possible and score an emphatic win in the state election this Saturday.
A Galaxy/The Daily Telegraph poll taken last week shows that despite statewide polls predicting a 10 per cent swing against the government, Mr Baird is ahead in the marginal seats of Campbelltown (despite only a 6.8 per cent margin), Coogee (on an 8.3 per cent margin) and The Entrance (on an 11.2 per cent margin).
And the latest Ipsos poll echoed The Sunday Telegraph’s Galaxy poll, showing the Coalition leading Labor 54-46 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
The polls suggest Mr Baird might lose as few as 10 seats.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/state-election-liberals-set-to-seize-decisive-victory-this-saturday/story-fnrskx7r-1227273864386 ]
Apart from an overly optimistic reading of some polls, this piece puts Baird into the position of unbackable favourite, actually winning extra seats.
“Underdog” status is therefore given directly to Labor. If a vote for Labor can’t hurt, and if we can send a message to Tony Abbott’s spineless colleagues, why not vote Labor?
I recollect that Campbell Newman was accorded similar “unbeatable” status by the Bizarro’s sister publication, the Courier-Mail. Day after day, readers were told he was just too good. His wife too adoring. His vision was too broad for defeat to be possible.
The message: a protest vote won’t alect Labor. So enough of the punters voted in “protest”… enough, by a whisker, to get Labor over the line.
Can it happen here? The hard-heads say, “Little chance of that.” But as many of these so-called analysts are working for Baird, in one way or another, I start to suspect that they do protest far too much.
The Liberal campaign has been all Baird, all the time. Baird has the dimples, the big office. The odd “L-Plate” ad has been tried on, but you get the feeling they’re just going through the motions. They even tried “In The Union’s Pocket” a couple of times. Even trotted out the usual “Who knew?” suspects: Labor rats, now working for the bosses. There they were: Marn, Michael Costa, Iemma and (disappointingly) Mark Latham.
Foley on the other hand is a nobody, has no dimples and is forced to present a simple message: a vote for Dimples on Saturday is not worth higher electricity bills and high motorway tolls forever. Oh, and if you want to be rid of Abbott, voting Labor’s a quick way to stiffen the Federal Liberal Party room’s spines. By next week we can have no privatization, and no Abbott.
It’s a powerful one-two combination.
One thing is for sure: if I was a Liberal politician, and one week out from the election even Ipsos showed such a close call- hey, it’s “only a 10% swing” – I’d be packing a spare pair of underpants wherever I went, just in case. If had the Daily Bizarro spruiking me as London-to-a-brick to win, I’d be even more scared. If I’d run such a shithouse campaign, dreamt up in the offices of News Ltd, based pretty well solely on my cuteness, as reported in News Ltd newspapers, I’d be worried.
But then… I’m not Mike Baird.
Boerwar@2710
Agree with that. With the other big colonies which are predominantly British, they established a proper functioning democracy in place prior to self-rule.
Countries like Singapore was left with the people having to establish a fledging government.
Hong Kong had it worse. It was left with only a promise of democracy, which the people are now faced with having to demand from their new overloads, China.
mexicanbeemer
Posted Sunday, March 22, 2015 at 8:55 pm | PERMALINK
On Frazier, he was the first PM that I can remember so in a funny way his passing leaves one feeling old.
For a government which lasted for eight years, I don’t really have an opinion on it but regardless of how he obtained the PM job, he at least was a truer Liberal than any of the current lot.
—– which MF are you talking about? Macnamara reformed himself with work on poverty but his past role in vietnam (like fraser) was never forgotten. on overall career MF is the grandaddy of liberal machiavellianism, ignorance and hawkish foreign policy – he never explained or recanted
For more on why E-voting is a really bad idea.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-20/parliamentary-committee-rules-out-move-to-electronic-voting/5905926
http://qz.com/61209/e-voting-is-failing-the-developing-world-while-the-us-and-europe-abandon-it/
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/09/nyregion/lever-machines-briefly-replace-paper-ballots-and-optical-scanners.html
http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2008/05/netherlands-says-nee-to-electronic-voting/
http://chirgwin.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/e-voting-i-dont-like-it-because-im.html
It has a really bad track record.
If I’d run such a shithouse campaign, dreamt up in the offices of News Ltd, based pretty well solely on my cuteness, as reported in News Ltd newspapers, I’d be worried.
—true any politician who accepts a free ride with murdoch now without comment is disreputable – condoning anti democratic media – does not deserve public office
Ah, Joe…
[It was a different era where the world was divided into two. You were either a fan of SkyHooks or a fan of Sherbert. You were Liberal or Labor. You were Holden or Ford.
The divisions in the community were pretty stark..]
Yep. I well remember the rumbles at High School between Sherbert and Skyhooks fans. Just humming “Howzat’ in the playground could see you beaten to a pulp….
Of course, teenage girls being what they are, this led to the interesting sight of a girl beating herself up.
As for Holden versus Ford, nobody dared drive either for fear of sparking riots in the streets.
Re BB @2712: in the runup to the 2013 Federal election, the Daily Telecrap published individual seat polls that showed the Coalition way ahead in Labor seats, even some reasonably safe ones. For whatever reason, those polls turned out to be rubbish.
I noticed that when Turnbull was speaking, Abbott awoke from an apparent doze and spoke to someone behind him. The sort of insult he likes to give to opposition speakers.
[ Leroy Lynch
Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 11:21 am | Permalink
For more on why E-voting is a really bad idea.
]
READ : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hacking_Democracy
WATCH :
http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/114412/Hacking_Democracy__Full_Length/
Raaraa
10.4 on Lee … upsides and downsides.
He made Singapore what it now is.
I am old and maybe a stick in the mud but I can’t see a day I would be
happy with electronic voting.
Given the computer crooks and hackers always seem to be ahead of the game I can’t see how the integrity of the process, such as it is, can be maintained.
We knew the WA senate ballot papers were missing because they had been counted. I would imagine e-votes could just disappear into the ether.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/tax-strategies-may-distort-power-sales-20150322-1m4w52.html
The Chinese are getting set to buy our poles and wires already.
How much more of our country do we want to sell?
The NSW polling is further adrift but my memory is Qld followed a ‘labor can win, polls move against labor, LNP will win’ cycle, Could be fun
[In opposition, Tony Abbott was accused of adopting a small-target strategy.
But the current opposition leader, Bill Shorten, has made himself an even smaller target, giving at least 200 fewer interviews and perhaps as many as 400 fewer while avoiding hostile commercial media outlets and commentators such as Andrew Bolt, Alan Jones and Ray Hadley.]
I wonder if Abbott’s tactics of
1. Running away from press conferences as soon as the questioning became too hard, or
2. Setting up his own compliant group of B grade inquisitors who asked pre-planned dorothy dixers, or
3. Making announcements and not taking any questions at all,
were taken into account when arriving at this conclusion.
Yes Darn, that is pathetic journalism, even by the usual dire standards of the CPG.
[He made Singapore what it now is.]
Which is?
Singaporeans have paid a heavy price for their economic success:
[147th in Media Freedom
The media are strongly controlled by the state, with few alternatives available to citizens for independent news. In 2006, the media watchdog group Reporters Without Borders ranked Singapore 146th in media freedom (out of 168 countries surveyed); Freedom House’s Freedom of the Press 2007 survey considered Singapore “not free” in terms of media freedoms, ranking it 154th (out of 195 countries). Restrictions on the freedom of expression also extend to foreign media outlets, which are sometimes restricted from distributing materials containing negative stories about Singapore or its political leadership. Such censorship has occurred with the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Newsweek, and others. The Financial Times has agreed to be sold partly censored, while the Economist refuses to be distributed. All magazines deemed pornographic are banned. Political party newspapers are basically banned through regular use of the slander laws. In the 2006 elections, the possibility for political speech and thus of effective political opposition was further restricted by new rules prohibiting political commentary through websites, blogs, and podcasts that might be considered biased toward a candidate or party, meaning an opposition candidate.]
Darn
How misleading. Small target is usually a reference to policies, not media appearances.
There should be a comparison with other leaders, not just Abbott, as well as a discussion of the content. When did Abbott say anything that wasn’t a repetition of his 3 or so slogans? Abbott’s whole strategy was to hammer the same few points over and over and over and over again.
Abbott had about 3 policies before the election, the rest was “we’ll do Labor’s stuff better”. All his actual policies we found out months after the election in the budget.
At 54-46 in the polls, the Baird NSW Government looks pretty safe.
I’d like see see Foley go hard on the privatisation issue this week. One Liberal ad on high rotation has Baird telling us that the people of NSW will still ‘own’ the poles and wires, that claims that publically owned assets are being ‘sold off’ is disinformation. Well, Liberals would know all about peddling disinformation.
What Baird oroposes is a 99 year lease paid up-front. This is a sale for all practical purposes.
Whoever ‘leases’ the poles and wires will have the right to screw NSW consumers for three generations. And for all that, as Bob Carr pointed out, it’s not a very good deal. The ‘lessee’ gets a 15% return on their investment (a profit of $1.7 billion p.a. virtually forever for a price of $11 billion.
But NSW gets its assets back in 99 years? Well, the net present value of $11 billion in 99 years at 5% interest in about $87 million. At 10% it’s under $1 million.
Julie Bishop to demand a please explain from Hockey
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julie-bishop-to-demand-a-please-explain-from-joe-hockey-about-report-of-further-cuts-to-foreign-aid-20150323-1m5bgn.html
zoomster @2640:
[…actually, the Fairfax piece points to why the media would be lost without Tony Abbott.
As OL, he gave them a stunt a day, something to fill the pages without much effort on the part of journalists.
As PM, he generates hundreds of train wreck articles, with regular gaffes enabling the dashing off of outraged commentary.
Imagine if the PM was like Daniel Andrews, and just focussed on getting on with the job.
Why, the media might have to something a bit strenuous, like policy analysis.
They’d be lost.]
And yet you don’t hear Abbott’s bovver-boys thanking the media for their role in his rise to power: their uncritical adulation of his time as LOTO, their supine “Yes, sir” attitude during his early PMship, their current unwillingness to engage in analysis of his policies (instead preferring to stick to personality politics and soundbites)…
vic @2729
When you lay down with dogs you get up with fleas.
geoffrey
There has only been one MF
I generally look at the overall performance of a PM rather than just pick on ones faults mainly because I don’t think any government can ever be perfect.
I think if one just looks at faults they will quickly find history to be very sad and gloomy.
On Fraser, I don’t have an opinion one way or another on him or his government, he was just the PM except compared to the current lot, his government appears to have been pretty stable but that is more a reflection on the current lot.
[By this logic, refugees who have permanently been resettled in Nauru, Manus and Cambodia are safe as houses.]
Nauru and Manus are not “durable solutions” for refugees. (Also a “durable silution” is obviously a necessary but not sufficient condition for safety.)
[“We don’t take refugees from Indonesia because of this the mistaken belief that it will encourage more people to come the region.”
So take this argument to the UNHCR.]
This response makes no sense.
When Australia accepted refugees processed in Indonesia, the UNHCR sent refugees processed in Indonesia. When Australia refused refugees processed in Indonesia, the UNHCR did not send refugees processed in Indonesia.
But at no stage did either the UNHCR or Australia claim that refugees processed in Indonesia were – as you claimed – of lower priority or less needy than those processed elsewhere. The UNHCR explicitly asserts otherwise, that it does not distinguish between refugees according to the offices of determination, and the Australian government cited a completely different rationale than the one you described.
Raaraa
[My family was never a big fan of him.]
A ‘little’ bit too didactic for me, and then from a distance.
just heard excerpts of Abbott’s condolence motion on Fraser. It was a good speech. Wonders never cease!
dtt @2690:
[Steve
I did the same calculation a few days ago and calculated that if there was DD then you would see Coalition fall from 33 to 29, ALP stay the same, greens lose 1, the right wing parties (including Madigan) would go from 3-5 and the Independents from 5-8.
This assumed a 3% swing to ALP.
On the other hand if there were a normal half senate election then the greens would probably stay the same, Labor lose one, LNP lose 4/5, all going to independents]
Is that a 3% swing from the last election? In which case, Labor’s on 49.5% of the TPP vote and may not even form Government depending on where the swing happens.
I think a 5% swing (51.5% TPP) is a fairly safe assumption, absent a serious reversal of political fortunes. At which point, I’d say Labor’s a safe bet for at least 28 Senate seats at a DD (5 each from Tas and Vic, 4 from Qld, SA, NSW and WA, one from each Territory), meaning that Labor + Greens are likely to only need 1-2 Inds to get to a working majority on the Senate floor.
Check out JBishop react to JHockey in parliament. Classic!!
https://instagram.com/p/0jOZ34QJIR/
Boerwar @2708:
[Lee Kuan Yew took a post-colonial shambles, which included large-scale and hideous poverty, and turned it into a modern nation-state in a single generation.
The trade-offs included a very limited democracy, suppression of free speech, and getting jailed for dropping chewing gum on the footpath.
The ‘nation’ is still rickety as exemplified by significant angst around language policies and politics.
The biotic environment has been trashed with many species now extinct on Singapore.
The new challenge is that the newly-minted Singaporean middle class wants democracy and free speech with its prosperity.
Over to Lee’s son.]
A neat summation of Lee Kuan Yew’s context and legacy, Boerwar.
MartinB
in that case, you need more of an argument against Indonesia being a ‘durable solution’ than just that it’s not a signatory (which was the definition YOU chose).
The UNHCR’s priorities —
[UNHCR and resettlement countries have identified a number of refugee situations that would benefit from
targeted and coordinated resettlement over a number of years. It is envisaged that using resettlement
strategically in these situations would achieve benefits beyond just to the resettled refugees. These
designated ‘Priority Situations’ include:
• Iraqis in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon
• Iraqis and Iranians in Turkey
• Afghans in Pakistan
• Afghans in Iran
• Somalis in Kenya
• Colombians in South America, and
• DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo) Congolese in the Great Lakes region]
…no mention there of Indonesia, which is why Australia doesn’t take many refugees – under the humanitarian program – from Indonesia.
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/publications/refugee/ref-hum-issues/pdf/humanitarian-program-information-paper-14-15.pdf
Read that article on Shorten doing a “smaller” target strategy.
Its bollocks, but about what you would expect from a media hack doing his best to try and make Abbott look less bad.
And really, that seems to be what his boosters are about at the moment. All but the most blatant of the blue kool aid addicts have given up on to make him look good and they are now going to focus on trying make him seem to be the better alternative.
And even that is going to be VERY hard. Im sure that they will try and focus on what they consider lack of policy announcements and there are few enough people who actually LOOK for ALP policy that it will get some traction. At least until Shorten does his Budget in Reply speech.
There is a real opportunity there but one that should not and cannot be fully exploited until AFTER the Libs have nailed their colours to the mast by delivering the 2015 Budget. I reckon the Libs know that and are terrified at the way they have fwarked up and boxed themselves into a stupidly unsustainable policy and political situation.
Their only hope is to change their leadership AND their policy direction in such a way that they actually realistically deal with the revenue side of the Budget. Both NEED to happen for them to survive in 2016. I’m really not sure that they are capable of doing either, and suspect that at best they will dump Abbott / Hockey in June/July 2015 and hope thats enough.
imacca @2740:
[Read that article on Shorten doing a “smaller” target strategy.
Its bollocks, but about what you would expect from a media hack doing his best to try and make Abbott look less bad.]
Basically – it’s de rigeur for the media to equate the two parties, or at least do what they can to tear Labor down. And trolls like TBA have the nerve to complain about the media being pro-Labor!
[And even that is going to be VERY hard. Im sure that they will try and focus on what they consider lack of policy announcements and there are few enough people who actually LOOK for ALP policy that it will get some traction. At least until Shorten does his Budget in Reply speech.
There is a real opportunity there but one that should not and cannot be fully exploited until AFTER the Libs have nailed their colours to the mast by delivering the 2015 Budget. I reckon the Libs know that and are terrified at the way they have fwarked up and boxed themselves into a stupidly unsustainable policy and political situation.]
An interesting idea. I hope Shorten’s gearing up to deliver a barn-burner and reject not just the specific policies, but Abbott’s whole ideology – there’d be no better way to underline the differences than by doing it at that time.
[Their only hope is to change their leadership AND their policy direction in such a way that they actually realistically deal with the revenue side of the Budget. Both NEED to happen for them to survive in 2016. I’m really not sure that they are capable of doing either, and suspect that at best they will dump Abbott / Hockey in June/July 2015 and hope thats enough.]
That, plus the uncritical backing of much of the media (the Murdochcracy, for instance), and the cowed compliance of much of the rest (the ABC and SBS), will get them a long way.
Hopefully not all the way back into The Lodge for a second term.
Raaraa mentioning that he was born in Singapore brings back to memory …
about 25 or so ago I’m sitting outside a coffee shop (the Podium at the Barbican) and two coppers (one a City of London type and the other a Met one) turn up.
‘Have I seen a guy of ‘Asian’ appearance in black track suit pants’? (some mugging at the railway station).
I just laughed at the coppers and asked ‘You only have to make it as far as Istanbul to find that 3/4 of the World’s population is all ‘of Asian appearance’.
Ask me something different …
[ and the cowed compliance of much of the rest ]
From some of the commentary lately (Tingle, Wahid…) i think a lot of the non-Murdoch compliant media have had enough. The “mixed messages” coming out of the Libs are making it difficult for them (and everyone else) to work out just what the frack the Libs are on about. I am quite looking forward to Laura Tingle analysis of the Libs 2015 Budget. Its tone will be telling i think.
Also, with Treasury pretty much disowning the IGR i’m wondering if all is not well in Hockeys relationship with his bureaucrats and how that may affect the framing of the Budget??
[in that case, you need more of an argument against Indonesia being a ‘durable solution’ than just that it’s not a signatory (which was the definition YOU chose).]
What I said was:
[Asylum seekers in Indonesia have not “gained refuge in a ‘safe’ country”. They have no legal rights, and certainly no work rights. They are subject to detention if identified and the government talks about making the detention conditions worse than they already are.]
Seems to fit the bill.
The Greens should save their breath trying to advise Labor about refugees. This is because the Greens already know all about everything and Labor is not listening.
The Greens are urgently needed in Greece where their heroes are getting deeper and deeper and deeper in the bad faith merde:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/23/world/europe/in-greece-syriza-struggles-to-deliver-promises-as-money-runs-out.html?_r=0
the kouk on twitter
Government debt has hit $363 billion: Up $90 billion since election. Quite remarkable given @MathiasCormann says the economy is ‘strong’
Check out julie bishops reaction to hockey ‘s praise for Fraser.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/julie-bishop-rolls-eyes-at-treasurers-budget-razor-comment/6340520
v
When Cormann says ‘strong’ he means ‘on the nose, big time’.
Boerwar
Yep and this
[@MathiasCormann So why is private business investment down 7.3% since election? What is unemployment higher? Wages growth at all time low?]
rossmcg
I posted it earlier, but had no takers. :D. I think it is a classic
r @ 2747
Ms Bishop has a bad dose Abbott/Hockey terminalitis.
It is becoming more and more clear that the knives are being sharpened.