Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.
Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.
TPOF @2543
“My main concern is that there is too much beating up investors taking advantage of negative gearing as despicable rent seekers (even though they do seek rent) rather than look to decide what is the best way to ensure that there is a stock of reasonably priced rental property in every market for those who want or need to rent rather than buy.”
Completely agree.
I would like to make a couple of points.
1) Investors take the pressure of the government to build public housing (at a considerable cost to the taxpayer when this general revenue can be used on other social initiatives such as health or education).
2) Regardless of what the bloke from the Gratten institute said last night (quoting what happened when Neg gearing was abolished nearly thirty years ago was really strange in my opinion – Sydney may have had a big housing prices lead in the 1980;s however other capitals such as Melbourne and Brisbane have totally changed since then), Rent would go through the roof which would be another attack on the poor.
I am not a greedy investor. I am trying to supplement my rather poor super with an investment that may allow me to have a relatively decent retirement.
Anti negative gearing people tend to treat it like it is free money. It is only a tax deduction on money already spent on the investment, so in reality it is getting only approximately one third of what has been expended.
And the housing market is not just one homogeneous mass. it has high and low points, good and poor investments. AN investor is taking a risk, while providing a service to both the government and renter.
I am getting a little tired of all the experts who think every property investor is a bloody multimillionaire. I didn’t make the rules and I have to try and live in a society that encourages investment with the premis of taking pressure of the welfare system, and making enough to live on in my fast approaching retirement.
National Press Club IR debate
Ged Kearney speaking now up next Kate Carnell
Jed Kearney + Kate Carnell at national press club.
[ A families package, which in part at least addresses the rising cost of childcare, and a small business and jobs package that includes a tax cut of at least 1.5 per cent for small business are expected to be released in the coming weeks. ]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julie-bishop-questions-first-budget-sales-job-in-full-abbott-government-ministry-meeting-20150316-1m0qr9.html
Both of which are going to cost the Budget. A Small Business tax cut FFS???? What, they are going to argue a 1.5% cut will lift economic activity enough to cover the loss in revenue and then some? What some would call a brave assumption i reckon.
Its going to be a mess. Which while magnificent for the theatre that partisan political junkies adore, its not good for the country.
guytaur
We’ll call it a draw 🙂
Poroti
😆
[2549
poroti]
Absolutely right.
Oh and my current property was a new property built off the plan.
I suppose the next thing to attack is the stamp duty, building and F&F fittings.
It is called an incentive for a reason.
[ One thing that is clear – and is clear with much of the current taxation system – is that tax deductions like negative gearing are increasingly regressive. That is, they advantage most those who can afford to pay the most. ]
Yup, and that should be pointing the Govt to where they can find dosh for the revenue side of the Budget they seem to be so militantly ignoring. And its like,… “politically acceptable” revenue since they could frame it as “less revenue foregone” rather than a ” GREAT BIG NEW TAX!!!!! “. 🙂
Imacca @ 2547
[ARGGHHH! Thats one thing that really annoys me about this Govt. This attitude that the “solutions” they have proposed are the ONLY possible policy response to any particular issue. 🙁 ]
The problem for these guys is that they do believe it is the only solution because they are utterly in thrall to the IPA and the ‘tax is theft’ brigade.
The only way they could produce a blinder of a budget is to attack revenue. Indeed, the most lasting achievements by governments in Australia in advancing the country have been through breaking the shackles imposed by their most ideological supporters. Keating and Hawke achieved so much because they were prepared to challenge Labor ideology. They got some things wrong, but a hell of a lot right.
However, this mob have neither the nous to sell such a change, nor the courage to attempt it, nor the knowledge to even think of it. They are trapped in an ideological prison of their own making.
My guess is that they are going to come up with a budget that is superficially a nonentity but has disguised in it a whole lot of measures to achieve the IPA objectives through the back door. This would normally worry me a lot more than it does, but their incompetence in managing this country is matched only by their incompetence in running a magical illusion show. They are new dogs trying to play old tricks and failing miserably.
An outbreak of justice in NSW!! Catholic (Arch)Bishop Phillip Wilson is charged over concealing child abuse in the 1970s in Maitland Diocese.
http://indaily.com.au/news/2015/03/17/archbishop-wilson-charged-concealing-abuse/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-17/philip-wilson-archbishop-charged-concealing-child-sex-abuse/6325326
Of course everyone enjoys the presumption of innocence before our courst. Even so, it is refreshing to see the findings of a royal commission finally acted upon. May all such cases be acted upon with equal vigour, regardless of race, colour or creed. I sincerely hope that George Pell is not called as a witness, but still has some involvement.
I wonder if we will suddenly see a string of high ranking clerics suddenly appointed to diplomatic posts overseas?
[2551
Joffaboy
Investors take the pressure of the government to build public housing (at a considerable cost to the taxpayer when this general revenue can be used on other social initiatives such as health or education).]
Overwhelmingly, investor purchases are directed to existing dwellings. This does not add directly to housing supply. It simply adds to price pressure in localities where supply is fixed and where future price escalation is thought most likely to occur.
We need to do two things – increase housing supply and deflate the bubble – which will improve real wages and productivity.
Inflation in land prices is inherently deflationary in other markets, as Poroti (aka Portion) points out.
TPOF@2537
I believe we are in agreeable situations here. I apologise if it look like I’m rebutting your points.
I think there needs to be a consensus between the government, the public service run departments and the people. Currently the approach appears top down and there appears to be rivalry between the three, which doesn’t help at all.
rossmcg@2538
Speaking of double-dipping, I feel there need to be a correction in terms of people getting taxed for their savings in banks. I know saving accounts aren’t the best for of investment, but it is a good and non-risky way of people putting aside their hard earned (after tax) money so that it follows up with inflation. They should not be taxed for interest earned on this.
[ they are going to come up with a budget that is superficially a nonentity but has disguised in it a whole lot of measures to achieve the IPA objectives through the back door. ]
🙂 That’s a most likely scenario. Their backers will be getting a bit desperate to get as much of their agenda in place soonest since this lot really are looking like one-termers.
[ but their incompetence in managing this country is matched only by their incompetence in running a magical illusion show. ]
Which is something i find continually amazing. They have actually been SO hamfistedly bad at implementing their backers agenda SO quickly, and they have crippled their ability to deliver anything to anyone SO comprehensively.
Political historians probably thought that the Rudd?Gillard years would provide plenty of fodder for analysis. Than along came Tones to redefine “Good Government” and gobsmack to the lot of them. 🙁
Ged Kearney getting a lot of claps from the press lizards.
Imaca@2545
I agree all that HoJo and Abbott can hope for is that Shorten lays out some policies and they can go back into opposition mode.
And of course it won’t just be the government attacking their policies it will be most of the media,
Shorten’s budget reply speech is both a challenge and an opportunity.
As shown on Q&A last night issues can be raised and discussed.
24 is going to cut the NPC broadcast for Disaster update
Never underestimate the levels of incompetence of this government. Just when you think they can’t get any lower, stupider, or more dysfunctional they come along and show you that they can. Easily. Again and again and again.
guytaur
Boooo 24. I guess Ged was doing too well. Still on Sky 602.
ratsak
I will not be surprised if they bring workchoices back. Carnell is out there pushing to cut wages by cutting penalty rates
@gabriellechan: Abbott factor cuts NSW Lib volunteers. Baird has the big guns but may lack foot soldiers to deliver #NSWvotes #nswpol http://t.co/fIB6mHrEB7
If I remember correctly, Hockey rounded on the opposition’s modest proposal to address multi-nationals avoiding tax ..he ridiculed the suggestion in parliament ..but last night on QandA it transpired he didn’t know any of the detail of the proposal, despite it being publicly available..
Tells me very clearly that this Govt has no intention of taking on board ANY ideas/policies Labor might want to present for consideration, and that Shorten is right to keep his powder dry..
Abbott & Co are out of their depth as far as governing goes ..and are hanging out to get back into their comfort zone of aggressive and mindless opposition..
Is the NPC debate being streamed anywhere?
[I will not be surprised if they bring workchoices back. Carnell is out there pushing to cut wages by cutting penalty rates]
Of course, why the heck not? Tony will need to keep throwing bones to the boneheads on the right. Why not IR reform? That always gets them excited. Let em know he’s their guy. Add that to increasing the GST, reducing pension indexation and increasing the retirement age, deregulating higher education as his re-election policy strategy. Howard on steroids! How could it possibly fail?
Henry
Yes ABC is streaming it
Big clap for Ged when she said without unions there would be a lot more deaths and injuries on building site.
Carnell of course trying to slag off the unions.
cheers guytaur, i should have read about three posts up shouldn’t i…
Cfmeu in the audience
jr @ 2566
[Shorten’s budget reply speech is both a challenge and an opportunity]
I’m thinking (hoping) that Labor will begin to take up the challenge here. While we will get the screaming conservative hysteria if Labor suggests any revenue repair measures, I am thinking a great swathe of middle Australia is starting to come to the firm conclusion that savings measures cannot be restricted so they affect only those people they despise.
And as for raising hell about Labor, if it came to a decision about whether to accept anything this government says or buys the wares of a snake oil salesman, the cupboards of much of Australia will be bulging with bottles of snake oil!
Even now I am convinced that the ‘carbon tax’ had little impact on the result of the 2013 election and, to the extent that it did, it was not the impost but the alleged dishonesty of Julia Gillard and Labor. People don’t like being taxed, but they are happy if they see a good outcome. Personally, I would be happy to forego the Howard tax benefits given to the ‘senior citizens’, whose ranks I am about to join. This is unsustainable as, again, those who get the most benefit are those who can most afford to pay.
Nursing Union in the audience
silmaj
They are peopl. Just like CEO’s of companies and managers of small business are people.
Your point is?
Julie Bishop doing a nice little audition here for the pm ship on ABC 24.
Henry
Its why Abbott in QT yesterday took a foreign affairs question. He needs all the help he can get
Even the GG is reporting on Abbott’s latest “anti-diplomacy” effort.
[PM rebuked for Irish cliché speech
IRELAND’S PM has rebuked Tony Abbott for perpetuating the “stage Irish” image of drunken revelry in his St Patrick’s Day message. ]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/taoseach-rejects-tony-abbotts-stage-irish-st-patricks-day-speech/story-fn59nqld-1227266056108
“@Deadly_Thoughts: The Irish are complaining that Abbott is promoting excessive alcohol use. THE IRISH! #grogmonster #auspol”
2581
Just letting you know who’s clapping
If anyone is interested, the Israeli general election opens in about 2.5 hours and will close at 7am AEDST (if I have my done my calculations correctly).
The current polls are as follows:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Israeli_legislative_election,_2015
No further polling is allowed to be published within 5 days of an election.
TPOF@2579, at the risk of sounding agreeable, my sentiments exactly.
Most people accept revenue measures are needed.
Neg gearing or capital gains tax changes on housing could be wrapped up in a housing affordability package.
While not running away from the fact that this is a tax increase, it is also to solve a problem.
The Carbon tax is similar.
Raaraa
You mentioned taxing interest in bank accounts.
That was a fairly major factor causing me to buy solar panels a few years ago.
The financial return on cheaper electricity versus the costs of the of the panels was pretty good and a worthwhile investment just by itself.
But by buying the panels using money that would be sitting in a bank deflating in value [whereas electricity prices go up] and then getting taxed a marginal rate n the interest I saved even more, the opportunity cost was better putting the money into panels as compared to sitting, deflating and being taxed.
It wasn’t a huge amount but was the icing on the cake.
I’ve had solar panels a few years now and I have just about recovered my costs already and will be ahead shortly – in real indexed terms and getting better all the time.
The 10% increase in electricity prices a couple of months ago hurt me less than someone without panels.
Raaraa so is _sprocket a scruitineer?
guytaur
silmaj was only describing what was happening like you are.
MTBW
A/ I did not mention the clapping.
b/ I may have missed it but when the claps are from groups other than unions I have not seen that highlighted.
jr @ 2588
You can agree with me any time you like 🙂
HoJo feeling the entitlement.
[Hockey demands maximum payout]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/hockey-v-fairfax-maximum-payout-demanded-in-defamation-case/story-e6frg8zx-1227266202137
Essential is up. 52/48.
Hmmmm
How could you see who was clapping a ? The cameras were focused on the stage or up front where the journos asking questions were.
After seeing footage of Hockey’s performance on Q&A last night, I hope Hockey receives a payout proportional to his competence.
2596
Ged acknowledged her fellow Union members in the audience
silmaj
Do not forget the journalists asking questions are also union members.
[ Most people accept revenue measures are needed. ]
Its a simple concept and i think there is enough low hanging fruit, the plucking of which can be framed as “reducing revenue forgone” that the ALP can sell it from Opposition.
One thing that will come into play is the fanatical degree to which the Libs have pushed cuts to spending as the ONLY solution to Budget Repair. Factor in the constant references by the Libs and their backers to the GST and IR “reform” and i reckon the electorate is well prepped for some genuine consideration of structural changes to the Budget.
Libs are in all kinds of a bind with this.