BludgerTrack: 55.9-44.1 to Labor

The regular weekly reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate adds nothing of substance to last week’s result.

As is often the case in the week after a political upheaval, we’re starved for polling this week because everybody took to the field last week to get results out on the eve of the Liberal spill motion. That just leaves the regular weekly Essential Research result, which has made next to no difference to BludgerTrack. This week’s reading is the tiniest bit more favourable to the Coalition on two-party preferred than last week’s, but Labor makes a gain on the seat projection anyway, the vagaries of the state breakdowns having pushed it over the line for a ninth seat in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,364 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.9-44.1 to Labor”

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  1. And another thing for the Crikey hamsters:

    URLs disappear into the white space on the right of the centre column, you can’t see the whole url. It appears in the address bar of your browser when you paste it, but.

  2. MTBW
    “”Have you seen this””

    He did not have to, they had been through the court process and had been found GUILTY!.

    And Abbott trying to blackmail them won’t help!.

  3. Rates Analyst

    Barnaby J said something like – ‘if you werent a marxist as a young adult then you dont have a heart, if you didnt turn into a capitalist then you dont have a brain’.

    I would add; if you dont have either then you should join the National Party.

  4. RA

    And I sometimes make grammatical and spelling errors just to annoy Fran.

    I sometimes make errors because my fingers are big and my phone small and I am in a rush.

    I mostly make the errors because I am hopeless at writing.

  5. SK @ 90

    [I personally know several people who once sat slightly to the left of Gramsci in their 20′s now reside slightly to the right of Ray Hadley. The change? Parenthood? Moving to the Burbs? Or joining their local Hillsong type church?]

    There are some people who absolutely need to be told what to think and who can only process simple and simplistic ideas with a fundamental driver (God, Marxism, Security Fear). So it makes perfect sense that a disappointment with one simplistic solution drives the person to some other simplistic solution (even if the two have nothing in common in the presentation).

  6. I wonder if Brandis as (say) shadow AG would be keen on a Labor staffer sitting in on a briefing he was getting from (say) Tim Wilson after the next Federal Election.

  7. Thanks

    The version I’d heard was:

    “If you’re not a marxist at 20 you’ve got no heart. If you’re not a Captilist at 40 you’ve got no brain.”

    Though the other one I like is this:

    “I never understood Conservatives until I had something to conserve.”

  8. There is also the stereotype of the firebrand marxist making a fairly sudden transition to conservative capitalist.

    I would suspect there is an element of the religious conversion at work here. When people make the cognitive break with their past beliefs and take up new beliefs there is something that in some people requires validation that their (new) choice is the correct one, and they will self-manufacture evidence to support their new beliefs with a fervour that existing adherents would seldom exhibit. They need to be RIGHT and they need to shout it from the rooftops.

    Of course for most of us working out what the best solution to the world’s problems might be is not a matter of such conviction or faith – I know I’m not sure what the answers are, but I tend to lean in certain directions – but not so strongly as to never be able to be convinced I have been wrong or misinformed or whatever.

    I think it’s when ideological belief verges on religious, and the “faith” turns to doubt that this certain type of ideologue needs to turn to a new absolute ideology with that conversion fervour and eschew their past ‘follies’.

  9. TPOF

    Possible. Or it may be a delayed effect of substance abuse in a misspent youth. I used to tell them, ‘keep smoking pot or keep swilling whiskey and you will regret it’.

    I never imagined it would be me that would suffer having to hear how wonderful church was on Sunday and how wonderful the Almighty is when he saved little Johnny from serious injury when he got hit by a car.

  10. If Brandis is so concerned about what is being said behind closed doors at the HRC, he should appoint one of his right-wing mates to keep an eye on things.

  11. [91
    Jake

    Jackol,

    So, a statutory right to briefings of the AG by the HRC includes the right to sit in on all communications the HRC has with everybody.

    That would place the AG completely within the HRC, which is a far cry from the right to briefings.]

    It appears that the Government has decided to provoke a conflict with the HRC. Most likely, this is a prelude to attempting to abolish it.

  12. @ABCNews24: From Monday March 9 #qanda will not be broadcast live on #abcnews24 due to @Lateline. @QandA will be live streamed on @abciview

  13. SK @ 114

    [how wonderful the Almighty is when he saved little Johnny from serious injury when he got hit by a car.]

    What if it turns out that Johnny’s parents were closet atheist devil worshippers in secret at the time?

  14. [Downing Street has been accused of “systemic” negligence in its approach to the handling of sensitive information – by the body charged with keeping threats to national security out of the media.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/downing-street-accused-of-being-systemically-negligent-with-national-security-secrets-after-name-of-exsas-officer-finds-its-way-into-the-public-domain-10055059.html

    The Cameron govt doing what they do best – f’cking up things.

  15. Jake @ 118

    [If Brandis is so concerned about what is being said behind closed doors at the HRC, he should appoint one of his right-wing mates to keep an eye on things.]

    😀

  16. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/calls-for-tougher-country-of-origin-food-labels-after-hepatitis-a-outbreak-20150218-13iaf0.html

    [The Sydney Morning Herald

    Frozen berries maker says laws are ‘adequate’
    First WA victim of outbreak emerges

    Pressure is growing to tighten food labelling laws as the number of hepatitis A cases believed to be linked to contaminated frozen berries grew to 13 on Wednesday.

    But Prime Minister Tony Abbott appeared to reject a complete overhaul of testing and labelling regulations, saying it was the responsibility of businesses “not to poison their customers”.

    Mr Abbott said any review of food labels would have to be a “balancing act” that did not impose unnecessary burdens on business.]

    Evidently Abbott sees no particular role for Government in ensuring we have a safe food supply, or even in ensuring that consumers have enough information to be able to choose safe, hygienic foods.

    Perhaps he might change his mind if had a dose of Hep A.

  17. [ @ABCNews24: From Monday March 9 #qanda will not be broadcast live on #abcnews24 due to @Lateline. @QandA will be live streamed on @abciview ]

    So W.A. viewers no longer get it live on free to air. Sucks.

    And this census thing? Who has come up with that as a brain fart? The data the ABS collects underpins (or should) so much of the important decision making for Governments in Australia the rational approach would be to strengthen and extend its collection capabilities not arbitrarily cut them.

    Sure, their procedures and what data they collect should be reviewed all the time to make sure its accurate and relevant and they should always be looking at ways to do things more efficiently. But cancelling the fwarking census??

    Its getting to the point where i would really welcome an early election before this lot get around to trashing too much more. 🙁

    Yes, i will be noble and give up on watching the Libs beat themselves bloody and humiliating themselves. They just have to be gone. 🙁

  18. [But Prime Minister Tony Abbott appeared to reject a complete overhaul of testing and labelling regulations, saying it was the responsibility of businesses “not to poison their customers”.]

    Is he saying we should just let the market rip and hope that once some people have been poisoned by unsafe product that other consumers will no longer purchase it?

  19. [Mr Shorten said the government had questions to answer about Mr Hicks’ treatment.

    “There is no doubt on one hand David Hicks was probably foolish to get caught up in that Afghanistan conflict, but clearly there has been an injustice done to him,” Mr Shorten told reporters in Melbourne on Thursday.

    “I do think that the Australian government needs to examine did they really do all they could to ensure injustice didn’t occur and bring David Hicks back to Australia.”]

    Labor should have held an inquiry into this matter when in government. Another missed opportunity.

  20. Not sure stricter labelling rules is going to stop people eating contaminated food.

    I eat frozen berries from time to time and it clearly says on the lack product of China/Chile depending on which brand I buy. Thankfully I have not, to my knowledge had Nana’s brand. I also have had Hep A vaccinations. So maybe it doesn’t matter.

    And just because a product is australian doesn’t make it immune from lax practices. Remember the salami scandal in SA?

  21. ross

    [And just because a product is australian doesn’t make it immune from lax practices. Remember the salami scandal in SA?]

    Early 1994 from memory. So 20 gone since.

  22. I had a bad night last night.

    My alma mater, St Patrick’s College Sale, is being investigated in relation to allegations of two decades of sexual abuse.

    I don’t know of any.

    But the news brought back painful memories of sadistic behaviour that would certainly lead to jail were they to be practised today.

  23. [Not sure stricter labelling rules is going to stop people eating contaminated food.]

    It’s not just berries. It’s that the whole “Made in XXX” where XXX is the location where most value is added to the product is grossly misleading (and the producer of the berries you are purchasing is doing more than the legislation requires.)

    Frozen veges, in particular, are being shipped in bulk from China and elsewhere to NZ, then mixed with some local produce and packed there. The final step is the most expensive, so they earn the label “Made in NZ”. I don’t buy frozen veges imported from NZ for that reason – a fair portion of it is not actually from NZ.

  24. Bw

    [But the news brought back painful memories of sadistic behaviour that would certainly lead to jail were they to be practised today.]

    Boarding schools work that way. ‘Botting’ was my main complaint followed by water bombing.

  25. The SA Salami Scandal of 20 years ago? Not to be outdone by the famous SA Sausage Scandal of 40 years ago involving a pair of pink terry towelling shorts.

  26. LU

    I am not sure I get your point. Are you worried about eating dodgy food or do you object to the business practices of some food manufacturers and importers.

    I like to support local business as much as the next person but I also acknowledge that food is a global business and if we want to eat certain products at certain times of the year it is not going to be australian grown.

    And if we we want to talk about dodgy food exports just recall the meats substitution rackets.

    No contamination is good but I am more worried about what I might catch at a local food market stall than products I buy at a supermarket.

    Maybe all imported food should carry a label saying “not produced or packed by honest hard working Australians in a nice clean factory so eat at own risk.”

    Google food recalls. There are plenty of australian products on the list.

  27. [I am not sure I get your point. Are you worried about eating dodgy food or do you object to the business practices of some food manufacturers and importers.]

    I am worried both about eating dodgy food, and about the undermining of local production by overseas growers that have much less stringent requirements but can hide behind lax labelling laws and compete purely on price.

    I have no problem with imported food — give those me cheap NZ apples and avocados, oranges out of season from California, etc — as long as it is clear that some of the cheaper stuff comes with the risk that it was grown in a field downstream of an open latrine pit or upwind of a steel foundry.

  28. [I am worried both about eating dodgy food, and about the undermining of local production by overseas growers that have much less stringent requirements but can hide behind lax labelling laws and compete purely on price.]

    Some of that cool technology so we could look at the farm they were grown on, packing sheds, transport all the way to our table would be nice.

    I agree in this day and age the amount of information they could cheaply make available is almost limitless – that they claim it would be too expensive is ridiculous they are just trying to hide things.

  29. I have posted earlier about my experience in getting the new broadband in an earlier post. Basically my problem was the high cost of getting started (still working on it by the way).

    I have since found the reason for the excess charges. It is a monopoly. In this particular flat, I have to go with a company called Opticomm which owns the fibre. They have worked with the developers to install this infrastructure in the flats as well as running the fibre in the street.

    I don’t know if they also advised the developers about wiring to the flats from the street, but the developers have put in copper telephone wires! I am staggered, fancy picking very old technology rather than use fibre to the flat. This will ensure lower speeds for the end consumer, plus extra costs later on as the copper will require more maintenance and eventual replacement. Of course, this will also be paid for by the end consumer.

    I have rung up the NBN Co to see what they could do. Their response was bad luck, you are stuck with Opticomm for ever. Opticomm being a monopoly can charge what they like to use their infrastructure.

    They did provide a modem with the initial charge. Which was useless as you need a Ethernet cable to connect to it (ie it Isn’t a modem/wireless router combination). Just for those of you wh are not too technical, iPads and smart phones don’t have Ethernet sockets and NEED wireless). The consumer must buy either a wireless router or another modem/wireless router from the ISP for about $375.

    As Opticomm is a monopoly they can dictate which ISPs (these companies will provide the data through the fibre) you can select from (probably eliminating the likes of Telstra and Optus by slugging them for the use of the infrastructure too, whose cost is passed onto the end consumer).

    So the Liberals who are champions of competition and freedom of choice have set up a system where their is no competition and the consumer gets inadequate service at a high cost.

    They are complete morons who seem only to stuff up everything they touch.

  30. LU

    Upwind of a steel foundry?

    Maybe you mean downwind.

    For decades a large amount of Perth’s vegetables were grown In and around the southern suburb of Spearwood, downwind from the Kwinana industrial strip. In those days you could feel your chest tighten as you drove past the power station and the alumina refinery, and the steelworks and the oil refinery and the nickel refinery and the fertiliser factory …

    It’s OK now, the market gardeners have gone, overtaken by suburbia.

  31. Rocket Rocket@81

    WarrenPeace 58

    I hadn’t really followed the Newcastle stuff closely.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/newcastle-a-city-caught-between-a-rail-line-and-its-harbour-20150218-13hvra.html

    The trouble with the lowest tier of governmnet – most people don’t care much about it, but then it impacts greatly on their local environment.

    Spoke to a friend who lived in Newcastle about it.

    She’s no Lib voter but hates the idea that the rail line is there. I can’t convince her that removing the rail line is a bad thing.

  32. This, ross: [Maybe all imported food should carry a label saying “not produced or packed by honest hard working Australians in a nice clean factory so eat at own risk.”]

    And on this:

    [For decades a large amount of Perth’s vegetables were grown In and around the southern suburb of Spearwood, downwind from the Kwinana industrial strip. ]

    Aha, it happened in the past, so it’s ok to keep doing it in the future. Nice.

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