The flurry of pre-spill polling leaves BludgerTrack engorged with new data, offering a high-resolution picture of how things looked immediately before Monday’s Liberal party room meeting. The result isn’t quite matching Julia Gillard at her worst, but it comes awfully close – particularly on the seat projection, since the swing has bitten deepest in the especially sensitive state of Queensland. There has been a straight one-point shift from the Coalition to Labor on the primary vote to add to the two-point shift recorded last week, with other parties remaining stable. Labor is up four on the seat projection since last week, courtesy of gains in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
The leadership ratings are if anything even more remarkable, with new numbers added this week from Newspoll and Essential Research. The collapse in Tony Abbott’s personal rating from an already low base is particularly something to see. It moves more sharply this week than preferred prime minister, since it had only one data point to react to last time rather than two, last fortnight’s Galaxy poll having provided on the latter. The y-axis on the net approval chart formerly ran from plus to minus 40%, but I’ve had to widen it to accommodate the depths presently being plumbed by Abbott. Bill Shorten’s rating softens a little, thanks to a somewhat off-trend result this week from Essential. Full results, as always, are on the sidebar.
Zoomster 2646 Unlike PJK, for example.
If there is another spill motion in the Liberal Party room and Turnbull puts up his hand to challenge, I think one of two things will happen.
1. Abbott withdraws and Morrison runs and beats MT about 60-40.
2. Abbott runs, but so does Morrison – then I wonder who would go out (Joe Hockey style) on the first ballot. I believe each candidate would speak briefly before the vote, though there are no written rules so who knows?
a. Morrison first out – Turnbull to beat Abbott
b. Turnbull first out – Morrison to beat Abbott
c. Abbott first out – Morrison to beat Turnbull
Notice I always have Abbott losing, and this may discourage him from even running, which would have the added bonus for him of stopping Turnbull becoming PM.
So in game theory – Turnbull may have already blown his chance, and Morrison is looking pretty good if he runs.
My thoughts on the Turnbull show, otherwise known as Q&A tonight!
I’m sure I’m not the only one who noticed Turnbull taking a fair bit of pleasure over throwing Abbott under a bus over the Ruddock sacking and even managed to get in another captain’s call dig. His contempt for Abbott’s leadership is clear no matter how much he tries to play the loyal Minister. I look forward with anticipation to some of the usual suspects on the right, Bolt etc, having another crack at him over this.
As others have picked up, Turnbull’s reaction when things were not entirely going his way was extremely telling and a reminder of a side of Turnbull that is known to those who have followed him closely. It certainly made me wonder, were he to depose Abbott, how he would handle dealing with some of the inevitable issues within his own party, but even more so, not getting things his own way in the Senate. There would be the potential for cracks to open up very quickly imho!
Having said that, tonight was also a reminder of how much the dynamics would change were he to become leader. Abbott cannot win the next election, I have no doubt about that. A Turnbull led Government could, unfortunately, although a lot will depend on how long they wait. One thing is for sure, a move to Turnbull would save a fair bit of furniture. I suspect in the end though, I just can’t see the dominant right allowing Turnbull to return to the leadership. As one who wants to see this Government given a thorough belting, I hope I’m correct!
2637
The information you have provided only says that they though you though you had the power to sack them, not that they though you had the power. They may have but you have not provided the information to back that up.
Didn’t see much of Turnbull tonight but judging from comments here it seems he may have done enough to totally enrage Abbott. His reaction could be most entertaining.
Frednk2558
I can assure you as loathsome CB is, he is nowhere near as bad as this creature is
Au revoir ma petites……the end is nigh.
THE KING IS DEAD…….LONG LIVE THE KING
Good night
Tom
Not only didn’t I have the power to sack them, I never thought I had, and I hadn’t attempted to sack them. Thus I was gobsmacked when the person accused me of trying to sack them.
[The only credible right candidate is Morrison and he has unequivocally ruled out running.]
WTF? He is just waiting to inherit the right’s support when Abbott falls on his sword.
He will run against Turnbull when Abbott is forced to resign.
missed qanda – I rarely watch it, but I await a Bolt explosion in tomorrow’s Herald-Sun after this sort of reprting –
http://www.news.com.au/national/malcolm-turnbull-wows-public-with-almost-perfect-performance/story-fncynjr2-1227222003812
Hysteria@2657
Goodnight.
Dream up some more of your delusions.
I think Turnbull as PM present a real danger to Bill Shorten.
Turnbull will have learnt from his less than impressive run as Opposition leader. He will be more cautious, and will also learn from Abbott’s mistakes – and will consult and have a smart team of advisers around him.
Australian politics is highly volative, to state the obvious. Much public animus is directly very strongly at the persons of Abbott and Hockey, just as with Newman in Queensland.
Once the public enjoys the ritual “death” of Abbott and Hockey, Turnbull gets an incredible opportunity to reset the debate. He will say, I feel sure, that he disagreed with the lies told to the electorate prior to the last election and will pledge to stay honest this time. He will make the case far more effectively for Budget cuts that are fair and balanced.
Shorten will rapidly come under far greater pressure, and in this volatile climate the public could just as quickly turn on him as they turned on Abbott, I suspect.
Sorry if this comes as grim news to some. It’s not what I want to happen, but it’s what I suspect might very well happen.
Sorry about typos “.. Turnbull as PM presents a real danger.. ”
and “..highly volatile..”
Off to bed
[Sorry if this comes as grim news to some. It’s not what I want to happen, but it’s what I suspect might very well happen.]
Not grim at all, you just read like a glass half empty person.
alias – I fear the same as you. Even Morrison would be better for the Coalition.
All promises before 2013 election = Abbott’s – not mine
All crap in 2013 budget = Abbott’s and Hockey’s – not mine
All crap in 2014 budget (if it gets that far) – not mine
Ideal run-in would be November 2015, dumping Abbott and Hockey (and Andrews and a few others).
Turnbull – Bishop – Morrison as Treasurer.
Hi, haven’t posted here since WorkChoices days, but seeing Abbott’s cretinous ramping up of the xenophobic card today – along with everything else he’s touched since the start of “good government” a week ago – has me convinced this clown can do a lot damage between now and the inevitable spill. I want front-row seats for Abbott’s demise, and hoping it comes as soon as possible. Can he really hold on till the budget at this rate?
[2662
alias
…He will make the case far more effectively for Budget cuts that are fair and balanced.]
The problem they all have is that cuts cannot repair the budget and they are completely wrong for the economy. We need two things: a resumption of income and employment growth; and a series of revenue measures that will harm the LNP’s core supporters.
Abbott has been destroyed by his own ideological fixations and his leadership style. But the problems for the coming period will be different. They will focus on unemployment, weak income performance and feeble investment, all of which reflect in the lack of vitality in the domestic economy.
Turnbull might well become PM but if he does not have a workable program to deal with these issues he will lose the next election just as certainly as Abbott is now bound to do.
I agree with those that think Turnbull would have been better off to go last week. You never know how things are going to pan out and you should take your opportunities. I think he almost certainly would have won, and fighting for the job is not a bad look.
RR’s 2652 is also fun, because even if you game theory with personal bias, there probably will be more permutations next time.
Look I think you’re absolutely right Briefly, but I think Turnbull will have the freedom as new PM to make all sorts of changes.
He could, on the one hand, bring in some modest savings to the Budget, but on the other argue, as plenty of sensible people have, that with credit so cheap at the moment, it’s smart to build some significant infrastructure to get the economy moving. He can easily cite changing economic conditions for this change of tack.
The Commonwealth raised $2.05 billion last week and intend to raise $1.9 billion this week.
The LNP is losing control of the budget.
Alias @ 2662
[I think Turnbull as PM present a real danger to Bill Shorten.]
Anyone other than Abbott has to be more of a challenge. Abbott has been the greatest gift an Opposition Leader could ever want as a first term Prime Minister. He is one of a kind (fortunately for Australia).
Whoever takes over from him will be a challenge – but don’t underestimate Shorten. I suspect he is under no illusion that his ‘popularity’ in the polls is due to him not being Abbott. If he is not, he would be a fool of Abbott-like proportions. I suspect they have been wargaming alternatives to Abbott for quite some time.
Still you might be right. But don’t expect too much from whoever takes Abbott’s place. And Turnbull is no foregone conclusion. I suspect that a number of his colleagues, apart from the usual suspects, may have found his performance a little too obvious and self-serving. And if he became PM, it is a different gig to being a Communications Minister or pontificator of motherhood statements as he was tonight. He will have to reunite the party room and deal with the critical policy issues, especially around revenue. There is a significant group in the Liberal Party who will not countenance any taxation measures; they are absolutely obsessed with getting savings.
That said, there is no certainty that Shorten and Labor will come out well. But there is less likelihood that any change of PM will be disastrous for Labor.
Well gee Mal, why doesn’t the Opposition just pluck some imaginary number out of the air, add it to the cost of Government policies and bullshit about it for years. That’s all you did.
2666
The 2013 Budget was ALP delivered. The 2014 budget has already been delivered. I presume you meant to write 2014 when you wrote 2014 and you meant 2015 when you wrote 2014.
Totally agree TPOF,
Abbott being dumped is inevitable… that will be a victory and I look forward to it…
Like bemused said, the replacement will get a honeymoon, and then reality will set in.
RR @ 2666
[Ideal run-in would be November 2015, dumping Abbott and Hockey (and Andrews and a few others).]
There are far too many polls between now and November. Unless Abbott discovers magic mojo juice or sells his arse to Mephistopheles he will be gone long before then.
The latest leap towards faux security issues will not help because they look so bloody obvious. The benefit of the doubt stuff is nonsense because we don’t know what we will be doubting in order to deny the benefit. The Martin Place gunman was bailed on domestic violence, not terrorism. It may well be that it was wrong at the time to bail him, but there was no terrorism relating to that charge.
I just don’t see Abbott lasting till November (the Ruddock dismissal probably knocked a month or two off his political life too). So whoever replaces him (and I’m pretty confident it will be Turnbull) will have a lot longer to lose the gloss.
2674
The plan may well be to call an election during the honeymoon. However I would not put it past Abbott to call an election if he had enough warning he was about to be dumped. Especially since has statement that it is the people who hire and it is the people who should fire.
In an Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison leadership shootout I can’t see Turnbull winning. In this contest I see Morrison as the home of the anyone but Turnbull block.
So if Morrison comes third then I would expect most of his votes to go to Abbott and he would remain PM.
If Abbott came third then I would expect the flow to go to Morrison and he becomes PM.
If Turnbull comes third then I would expect most of his votes to go to Morrison and he becomes PM.
For Turnbull to win he would need to walk into the room with the votes already in his pocket, I don’t see many flowing to him in the second round.
[2669
alias]
It’s going to take some seriously good policies and good political skills to handle the evolving situation…
[The plan may well be to call an election during the honeymoon.]
Yep, but the electorate aren’t usually kind to elections that come a year early (relying on memory).
[2677
Tom the first and best
I would not put it past Abbott to call an election if he had enough warning he was about to be dumped. Especially since has statement that it is the people who hire and it is the people who should fire.]
Let’s hope he does!
[Alias 2669
Look I think you’re absolutely right Briefly, but I think Turnbull will have the freedom as new PM to make all sorts of changes.]
You don’t seem to be considering the difficulties of disposing of a first term leader (particularly for conservatives). The fact that “all sorts of changes” doesn’t sound like something conservatives would like. That the Nationals hate Turnbull. That Turnbull didn’t do well last time. That Abbott may want to wreck the joint… and who knows what else…
Add to that an economy that has been successfully talked down by years of LNP BS. It won’t be easy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiVPRdzCR5o
Gold! 😀
[So in game theory – Turnbull may have already blown his chance, and Morrison is looking pretty good if he runs.]
Rocket, that’s exactly how I see it. And the reality here is that the majority of Liberal MPs would choose a right wing candidate over Turnbull.
[2682
Question
…Add to that an economy that has been successfully talked down by years of LNP BS….]
The economy isn’t weak because of mere talk. It’s weak because:
– there is a very pronounced and protracted terms of trade correction occurring, which is depressing incomes at the same time as capital inflows related to resource investment are receding
– we have had 20 years of under-investment in the domestic sector
– we have a ridiculous fiscal misalignment between spending and revenue
– financial repression in global finance remains a hugely distorting force, especially with respect to asset markets and exchange rates
– the growth rate in global trade remains as low as it has been at any time since the Great Depression
To address these forces, we need new policies. Talk will achieve absolutely nothing.
alias @2662,
Sadly you are largely right. And the Murdoch media will fall in behind and turd polish Turnbull all the way. The real problem for the Liberals though is ideology. The extreme right will continue to get their oar in.
[ And the Murdoch media will fall in behind and turd polish Turnbull all the way.]
The way they did for Campbell Newman?
TPOF @2676,
The critical junction will be how this coming budget plays. That will set the scene for the rest of the year. And thanks to last year’s budget everyone will be viewing it from the “is this fair” angle. Will Hockey resist the urge to make more penny pinching and politically stupid cuts? Will the inevitable child care scheme and tax cuts to small business be elevated to front page news to drown out any negatives? You can pretty much trust certain elements of the media to turd polish. Mind you they did last time and tried to run with the narrative that it was an ok budget, until it became clear to even then that that narrative wouldn’t stick.
Interesting times ahead. And more and more we’re seeing the influence of the non mainstream media.
Question,
One thing that keeps going through my head is this. One of the things that Abbott had going for him was that he energised the “base”. Which in reality means he got a bunch of loud mouthed males in our community to make a noise. You know the kind that tell you in the pub or the workplace how horrible that red headed sheila is. Abbott empowered this sector of the community and they made enough noise to influence unengaged voters.
The very same people are going to be losing morale if Abbott is tossed, or if (shock horror) Turnbull wins and starts saying climate change is real.
Its not just the principle at stake, its how it works in terms of social networks. Now its the progressives in our community who are angry and upset and making a noise.
re Turnbull
___________
I tend to agree with ALIAS that he will be a more fomidable opponent for us all,than the now mortally woundedAbbott
While I wll rejoice at Abbott’s defeat and departure…he being one of the worst of the right-wing DLP-like tory-right wing catholics of them all
…I suspect that Turnbull will capture many small-l-liberals who have been lost …however we must remember that the world economic crisis is deepening and Turnbull can do nothing much about that and unemployment will be an emerging issue in the next year or so(not that Shorten has many ideas either on that score)
The Lib right won’t like Turnbull,but if he can pull them back into the game they will forgive his views on the Republic et al
2680
An early election did Menzies no harm in 1963. Nor Bracks in 2002. It is more about the position of the parties and the campaign.
[The way they did for Campbell Newman?]
People weren’t paying attention because they had the baseball bats out for Newman personally. The budget is a bit more complex. If anything it’ll be Hockey that puts his foot in it again. But you can predict what the media will say all the same – “another sound, sensible budget with lots of goodies”..
You can also bet that the MSM will still be talking about how bad debt and deficit is whilst at the same time saying that the Liberals are doing their best with Labor’s mess..
deblonay,
It won’t matter much that Turnbull or any Lib leader isn’t going to balance the budget. What matters is how the media narrates.
And Labor absolutely must start right now telling its own narrative, long, long before it brings out policy.
[2688
cud chewer
Will the inevitable child care scheme and tax cuts to small business be elevated to front page news to drown out any negatives?]
The most recent hints are – unbelievably – the “reforms” being considered in child care will result in less Commonwealth of spending.
Remember Fraser
_________
In 1974,Whitlam won relection against Billy Snedden one of the worst and most fatuous of the Lib leaders
The Libs later dumped Snedden after months of Labor attacks on him…for a time Whitlam seemed safe…but than the Libs picked Fraser for leader…and the rest is History
2695
The problem with the 1974 election is that it was not the 1973 election. With the previous Senate election being in December 1970, a Senate election (which is what Whitlam was calling initially, before the Gair scheme did was defeated by Joh) would have been entirely justified and a DD would have been easily doable. The ALP may even have got a Senate majority and governed until the 1976 elections.
Turdbull polishing has, apparently, begun in earnest at Murdochistan.
From the link at #2660
Headline:
[Malcolm Turnbull wows public with almost-perfect performance]
Opening sentence:
[IF tonight’s public appearance was anything to go by, Malcolm Turnbull has come out positively prime ministerial]
Very significant.
That is a passing of the baton complete with endorsement and blessing from on high [doesn’t matter who wrote the puff piece itself].
That changes the game [and a game it is – musical chairs].
Now the rabid right within the Liberal Party have permission to vote for Mal.
He has been declared non-toxic and the comment from Laura Tingle of some time ago [as I recall it] – “Liberal Party members would rather eat cut glass than vote for Mal as Leader” no longer applies.
Presumably currently favoured daughter Julie Bishop, well known as a ‘good loyal girl’ to a procession of male Lib leaders will also be in the mix probably in a back-up role.
So the questions the nervous nelly backbenchers wanting to keep their bums on the seats in a couple of years will be asking themselves are:
1.”Can we tolerate climate change/republican etc in exchange for winning the next election?”
Answer – reluctantly – “Yes”.
2.”When is the best time to do this – move Tony on that is?”
We’ll have a think and a talk about that.
Cud 2689,
Which is why I can’t understand all the agony aunts on tonight.
The reason Abbott will be dumped is because the electorate has seen past all the MSM crap, and the LNP have a TPP south of 44%. The LNP are not going to go to an election with that just to keep PB happy.
May as well take the victory and see what happens.
2698
A new leader, especially Turnbull, would boost the polls significantly in the short term.
I also would not put it past Abbott to call a revenge election if he gets enough warning.
fredex,
As I said before, its a matter of when. If you get to next autumn and the Libs are still trailing they will indeed swallow the broken glass and beg Turnbull.
But now? I believe that many Liberal MPs will vote for someone who shares their views despite this looking irrational to outsiders. The reason is that they so believe that their policies are right (and its just Abbott being a turkey) that they are also willing to believe that anyone but Abbott can sell the same policies.
Hence if it were called today, Morrison is the one to bet on.
Morrison must also realise this and if anything his best bet is to act sooner rather than later.
Turnbull on the other hand would put his hand up if a spill happened, but won’t try to force a spill until the MPs are desperate enough.