Queensland election live

10.09pm. All seats on my watch list have three booths outstanding, so maybe that represents consistent blank spaces for things that won’t be counted tonight.

10.04pm. Another booth in from Whitsunday and the LNP moves into the lead (bearing in mind that I’m talking about the booth-matched computer projection here, not the raw result), going from Labor 0.3% ahead to LNP 0.1% ahead.

9.54pm. Though I’m beginning to think these outstanding booths are perhaps things like that won’t be counted this evening.

9.45pm. Another booth from Mansfield, effectively no change, but the change there has been has been from a 0.1% Labor lead to a 0.1% LNP lead. Three booths outstanding.

9.40pm. Another booth in from Mount Ommaney, leaving three outstanding, but Labor’s lead is unchanged at 0.7%.

9.35pm. Then there’s Maryborough, which Labor will win if Chris Foley doesn’t finish ahead of them. With 27 of 30 booths, the primary votes are 29.6% for the LNP, 25.3% for Labor and 22.1% for Foley. Whether Foley closes the gap depends on preferences, which we won’t know about this evening. That includes 12.6% for Palmer United and 10.4% for others.

9.30pm. So here’s the seats I’ll be over like a rash from now on, namely Labor’s shortest path to 45 off its base of 42:

Ferny Grove. Labor leads by 0.9%, three booths outstanding.
Mansfield. 50.0-50.0, four booths outstanding.
Mount Ommaney. Labor leads by 0.7%, four booths outstanding.
Whitsunday. Labor leads by 0.3%, four booths outstanding.

9.26pm. Pumicestone has moved hard to Labor: lead now of 3.0%. Perhaps we’re seeing different dynamics in Caboolture and Bribie Island, with the count ping-ponging as booths from either end report.

9.18pm. Some of those Labor leads have slackened a bit: from a base of 41, they’re ahead by 0.9% in Ferny Grove, 0.1% in Mansfield, 0.7% in Mount Ommaney, 0.5% in Pumicestone and 0.3% in Whitsunday. It’s certain doable for a broad trend in late counting to wash that away.

8.55pm. I might be a little more cautious than Antony in describing 43 Labor seats as “definites”, given the number of amount of pre-polling and the evident late swing. Having said that, you’d rarely win much money backing my assessment over his.

8.49pm. That said, there are further seats which might go Labor: Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday, over and above the four that are their most likely pathway to a majority.

8.46pm. The ABC has reined Glass House back from LNP hold to LNP ahead. But my instinct would be that the LNP will end up winning anything where they’re ahead. The question is, are these 2% Labor leads in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra sticky enough to hold off a likely move back to the LNP in late counting.

8.41pm. I’ve still got Labor working off a base of 41, and I would rather be Labor than the LNP in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra.

8.38pm. ABC computer says Labor win in Mount Ommaney, but they’re only 1.0%. Not that it had ever been in my Labor total.

8.38pm. Mount Cooth-tha now reined back from Labor win to Labor ahead – a bit of a trend.

8.27pm. I’d been assuming Chris Foley was headed for third in Maryborough, but Palmer United preferences might push him ahead of Labor. So hard to see the LNP winning, but this could increase the cross-bench to four, and reduce Labor to 42.

8.26pm. I should add that given the late surge to Labor, you would expect late counting to be better for the LNP. So I’m leaning back towards a hung parliament.

8.23pm. Ferny Grove pegged back from Labor win to Labor gain. So it’s still a very live question whether it’s a hung parliament or a Labor majority. Wayne Swan graciously allowing for an LNP majority, but that’s hard to see. My count: Labor 43, LNP 37, cross-bench 3. In doubt: Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday.

8.18pm. So I’ve still got Labor on 44, with another four seats that could go either way.

8.16pm. Albert now being called for LNP.

8.09pm. Pumicestone has been downgraded from ALP gain to ALP ahead, so Labor back down to 44. So sorry if any champagne corks just popped/wrists got slashed.

8.05pm. The ABC computer is now calling Mundingburra for Labor, so I’ve now got Labor to 45. Not that late count reversals are unheard of, but there’s another four seats that are lineball – Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney and Whitsunday. Plus Redlands, where the LNP is ahead but not home and hosed.

7.58pm. Things keep falling Labor’s way. Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove and Mount Coot-tha now called for Labor. Only Redlands goes the way of the LNP. Still in doubt: Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney, Mundingburra, Whitsunday. Any one of them, and Labor wins.

7.54pm. Antony says 46 the most likely result. Need I remind you, 45 is a majority. But, of course, he advises caution.

7.52pm. I’d neglected to mention Maryborough. Chris Foley falling short, producing a Labor versus LNP contest in which Labor has its nose in front.

7.51pm. My calculations didn’t account for Springwood, a spectacular Labor gain. So adding in Mundingburra, that reads as 41 Labor, 36 LNP, cross-bench 3, nine in doubt.

7.49pm. One of those key seats, Mundingburra, is now being called by the ABC computer for Labor.

7.45pm. Or to put it another way, Labor on the cusp of the barest of majorities. If they fail, very likely a hung parliament. Nearly everything would have to go right for the LNP to get them to 45.

7.43pm. In sum: Labor 40, LNP 36, cross-bench 3, in doubt 10.

7.40pm. In doubt: Albert, Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha (another inner-city surprise), Mount Ommaney (big show for Labor if so), Mundingburra, Redlands, Whitsunday.

7.38pm. No sooner do I type than does Brisbane Central tick back to Labor ahead. Certainly not being called though.

7.36pm. Surprisingly close in Brisbane Central though. ABC computer says LNP with nose in front.

7.36pm. LNP at least looking better on the Gold Coast now. Albert and Broadwater in doubt, but Burleigh down as LNP retain.

7.35pm. No, nothing doing in Burdekin or Gaven. Both to go LNP. Same cross bench as last parliament.

7.33pm. Cross bench: Mount Isa, Dalrymple, Nicklin. But the ABC computer isn’t yet saying anything about Burdekin or Gaven. Will look into those.

7.28pm. Predictable Labor gains: Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Cairns, Capalaba, Cook, Greenslopes, Ipswich, Ipswich West, Keppel, Logan, Lytton, Morayfield, Nudgee, Sandgate, Townsville, Waterford, Yeerongpilly. Less predictable: Barron River, Algester, Bundaberg, Kallangur, Mirani, Murrumba, Pine Rivers, Redlands, Stretton, Tooowoomba North.

7.25pm. Labor looks like winning Barron River, but LNP predicted to retain Mundingburra, so a mixed picture up north.

7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost.

7.13pm. Whitsunday perhaps a slight disappointment for Labor – ABC projecting LNP ahead.

7.12pm. More good news for Labor: Wayne Swan talking up Pine Rivers, Labor ahead in Burleigh, a few obvious gains like Yeerongpilly, Greenslopes (though somewhat modest swing there), Ipswich. Labor holds Redcliffe and wins Stretton, the latter being a strong result. The verdict: the LNP will struggle to keep a majority.

7.10pm. Townsville to Labor. Kallangur though is the most exciting result for Labor yet.

7.05pm. Cairns and Kallangur called for Labor, and so apparently are Gladstone and Mackay, which might otherwise have gone independent.

7.03pm. With talk of a 9% swing, and nothing yet locked down for Labor above that range, the results are still consistent with the LNP getting over the line – but I attach a very big zone of uncertainty to that observation. And clearly Newman has lost Ashgrove.

7.01pm. Huge swing in Toowoomba South – not winnable for Labor, but presumably stands them in good stead for Toowoomba North.

7.00pm. Labor ahead in Bundaberg, which is great news for them. Close in Pine Rivers, with big 13% LNP margin.

6.58pm. Newman gone in Ashgrove, if what I just caught on the screen is any guide. More calls from the ABC computer: Labor to gain Ipswich West, Lytton, Capalaba, Stafford as well as the aforementioned Mirani. Shane Knuth to hold Dalrymple for the KAP.

6.52pm. First booth from Bulimba has a modest but sufficient swing to Labor. This seat swung relatively mildly in 2012, so it stands to reason the swing this time might be below par as well. Labor on track to win Nudgee – no surprise there.

6.50pm. ABC computer now has enough results in from Mirani to say something about it, which is “ALP ahead”.

6.49pm. Antony still grappling with tiny early results.

6.40pm. The very early result in Lockyer looked vaguely interesting for Pauline Hanson, though lack of preferences will surely thwart her.

6.38pm. Over 5% counted in Mirani, on the primary vote least. The 2PP swing is 12.2%, just enough to deliver the seat to Labor, but that’s only from about 600 votes, the 2PP count being some distant behind the primary.

6.35pm. “All over the shop outside of urban areas”, says Possum, who has his act together sooner than I do. “Big indie, KAP and PUP votes in some places, smashing the LNP primary”.

6.33pm. I’m not telling you anything here you wouldn’t already know, but for the record, Leroy Lynch relates the exit polling in comment. Usual story for the Galaxy state poll: it would only be of use if we knew what seats, and what the swing was. But clearly Newman is gone in Ashgrove, and the whole show looks like being worse than expected for the LNP.

6.26pm. So there are exit polls, and they show frankly astounding result for Labor. Perhaps this means the Ashgrove debacle has driven late-deciders to Labor in their droves. I suspect there is at least an element of that. But exit polls generally target particular electorates, and are difficult to read if you don’t know which ones or how they’ve gone about it.

6.25pm. Otherwise, it’s the usual early count story of tiny booths coming in from rural electorates.

6.23pm. I’ll say this much: Ben Hopper doesn’t look like he’s going to do much in Condamine, so mark that one down for the LNP.

6.15pm. Polls closed 15 minutes ago. I’ve been distracted for the past hour or so, but I understand the exit polls were interesting. More on that shortly. I see a booth from Warrego is in, but there’ll be nothing worth discussing for at least half an hour.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe