10.09pm. All seats on my watch list have three booths outstanding, so maybe that represents consistent blank spaces for things that won’t be counted tonight.
10.04pm. Another booth in from Whitsunday and the LNP moves into the lead (bearing in mind that I’m talking about the booth-matched computer projection here, not the raw result), going from Labor 0.3% ahead to LNP 0.1% ahead.
9.54pm. Though I’m beginning to think these outstanding booths are perhaps things like that won’t be counted this evening.
9.45pm. Another booth from Mansfield, effectively no change, but the change there has been has been from a 0.1% Labor lead to a 0.1% LNP lead. Three booths outstanding.
9.40pm. Another booth in from Mount Ommaney, leaving three outstanding, but Labor’s lead is unchanged at 0.7%.
9.35pm. Then there’s Maryborough, which Labor will win if Chris Foley doesn’t finish ahead of them. With 27 of 30 booths, the primary votes are 29.6% for the LNP, 25.3% for Labor and 22.1% for Foley. Whether Foley closes the gap depends on preferences, which we won’t know about this evening. That includes 12.6% for Palmer United and 10.4% for others.
9.30pm. So here’s the seats I’ll be over like a rash from now on, namely Labor’s shortest path to 45 off its base of 42:
Ferny Grove. Labor leads by 0.9%, three booths outstanding.
Mansfield. 50.0-50.0, four booths outstanding.
Mount Ommaney. Labor leads by 0.7%, four booths outstanding.
Whitsunday. Labor leads by 0.3%, four booths outstanding.
9.26pm. Pumicestone has moved hard to Labor: lead now of 3.0%. Perhaps we’re seeing different dynamics in Caboolture and Bribie Island, with the count ping-ponging as booths from either end report.
9.18pm. Some of those Labor leads have slackened a bit: from a base of 41, they’re ahead by 0.9% in Ferny Grove, 0.1% in Mansfield, 0.7% in Mount Ommaney, 0.5% in Pumicestone and 0.3% in Whitsunday. It’s certain doable for a broad trend in late counting to wash that away.
8.55pm. I might be a little more cautious than Antony in describing 43 Labor seats as “definites”, given the number of amount of pre-polling and the evident late swing. Having said that, you’d rarely win much money backing my assessment over his.
8.49pm. That said, there are further seats which might go Labor: Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday, over and above the four that are their most likely pathway to a majority.
8.46pm. The ABC has reined Glass House back from LNP hold to LNP ahead. But my instinct would be that the LNP will end up winning anything where they’re ahead. The question is, are these 2% Labor leads in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra sticky enough to hold off a likely move back to the LNP in late counting.
8.41pm. I’ve still got Labor working off a base of 41, and I would rather be Labor than the LNP in Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha and Mundingburra.
8.38pm. ABC computer says Labor win in Mount Ommaney, but they’re only 1.0%. Not that it had ever been in my Labor total.
8.38pm. Mount Cooth-tha now reined back from Labor win to Labor ahead – a bit of a trend.
8.27pm. I’d been assuming Chris Foley was headed for third in Maryborough, but Palmer United preferences might push him ahead of Labor. So hard to see the LNP winning, but this could increase the cross-bench to four, and reduce Labor to 42.
8.26pm. I should add that given the late surge to Labor, you would expect late counting to be better for the LNP. So I’m leaning back towards a hung parliament.
8.23pm. Ferny Grove pegged back from Labor win to Labor gain. So it’s still a very live question whether it’s a hung parliament or a Labor majority. Wayne Swan graciously allowing for an LNP majority, but that’s hard to see. My count: Labor 43, LNP 37, cross-bench 3. In doubt: Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone, Whitsunday.
8.18pm. So I’ve still got Labor on 44, with another four seats that could go either way.
8.16pm. Albert now being called for LNP.
8.09pm. Pumicestone has been downgraded from ALP gain to ALP ahead, so Labor back down to 44. So sorry if any champagne corks just popped/wrists got slashed.
8.05pm. The ABC computer is now calling Mundingburra for Labor, so I’ve now got Labor to 45. Not that late count reversals are unheard of, but there’s another four seats that are lineball – Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney and Whitsunday. Plus Redlands, where the LNP is ahead but not home and hosed.
7.58pm. Things keep falling Labor’s way. Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove and Mount Coot-tha now called for Labor. Only Redlands goes the way of the LNP. Still in doubt: Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney, Mundingburra, Whitsunday. Any one of them, and Labor wins.
7.54pm. Antony says 46 the most likely result. Need I remind you, 45 is a majority. But, of course, he advises caution.
7.52pm. I’d neglected to mention Maryborough. Chris Foley falling short, producing a Labor versus LNP contest in which Labor has its nose in front.
7.51pm. My calculations didn’t account for Springwood, a spectacular Labor gain. So adding in Mundingburra, that reads as 41 Labor, 36 LNP, cross-bench 3, nine in doubt.
7.49pm. One of those key seats, Mundingburra, is now being called by the ABC computer for Labor.
7.45pm. Or to put it another way, Labor on the cusp of the barest of majorities. If they fail, very likely a hung parliament. Nearly everything would have to go right for the LNP to get them to 45.
7.43pm. In sum: Labor 40, LNP 36, cross-bench 3, in doubt 10.
7.40pm. In doubt: Albert, Brisbane Central, Ferny Grove, Mansfield, Mount Coot-tha (another inner-city surprise), Mount Ommaney (big show for Labor if so), Mundingburra, Redlands, Whitsunday.
7.38pm. No sooner do I type than does Brisbane Central tick back to Labor ahead. Certainly not being called though.
7.36pm. Surprisingly close in Brisbane Central though. ABC computer says LNP with nose in front.
7.36pm. LNP at least looking better on the Gold Coast now. Albert and Broadwater in doubt, but Burleigh down as LNP retain.
7.35pm. No, nothing doing in Burdekin or Gaven. Both to go LNP. Same cross bench as last parliament.
7.33pm. Cross bench: Mount Isa, Dalrymple, Nicklin. But the ABC computer isn’t yet saying anything about Burdekin or Gaven. Will look into those.
7.28pm. Predictable Labor gains: Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Cairns, Capalaba, Cook, Greenslopes, Ipswich, Ipswich West, Keppel, Logan, Lytton, Morayfield, Nudgee, Sandgate, Townsville, Waterford, Yeerongpilly. Less predictable: Barron River, Algester, Bundaberg, Kallangur, Mirani, Murrumba, Pine Rivers, Redlands, Stretton, Tooowoomba North.
7.25pm. Labor looks like winning Barron River, but LNP predicted to retain Mundingburra, so a mixed picture up north.
7.23pm. Just stepped out for an ABC News Radio appearance, come back and see the ABC computer is now projecting 42 seats for Labor, which is certainly minority government territory. Wayne Swan talking up Murrumba big time, so clearly a huge swing in that outer northern Brisbane sweet spot where so many seats stand to be won and lost.
7.13pm. Whitsunday perhaps a slight disappointment for Labor – ABC projecting LNP ahead.
7.12pm. More good news for Labor: Wayne Swan talking up Pine Rivers, Labor ahead in Burleigh, a few obvious gains like Yeerongpilly, Greenslopes (though somewhat modest swing there), Ipswich. Labor holds Redcliffe and wins Stretton, the latter being a strong result. The verdict: the LNP will struggle to keep a majority.
7.10pm. Townsville to Labor. Kallangur though is the most exciting result for Labor yet.
7.05pm. Cairns and Kallangur called for Labor, and so apparently are Gladstone and Mackay, which might otherwise have gone independent.
7.03pm. With talk of a 9% swing, and nothing yet locked down for Labor above that range, the results are still consistent with the LNP getting over the line – but I attach a very big zone of uncertainty to that observation. And clearly Newman has lost Ashgrove.
7.01pm. Huge swing in Toowoomba South – not winnable for Labor, but presumably stands them in good stead for Toowoomba North.
7.00pm. Labor ahead in Bundaberg, which is great news for them. Close in Pine Rivers, with big 13% LNP margin.
6.58pm. Newman gone in Ashgrove, if what I just caught on the screen is any guide. More calls from the ABC computer: Labor to gain Ipswich West, Lytton, Capalaba, Stafford as well as the aforementioned Mirani. Shane Knuth to hold Dalrymple for the KAP.
6.52pm. First booth from Bulimba has a modest but sufficient swing to Labor. This seat swung relatively mildly in 2012, so it stands to reason the swing this time might be below par as well. Labor on track to win Nudgee – no surprise there.
6.50pm. ABC computer now has enough results in from Mirani to say something about it, which is “ALP ahead”.
6.49pm. Antony still grappling with tiny early results.
6.40pm. The very early result in Lockyer looked vaguely interesting for Pauline Hanson, though lack of preferences will surely thwart her.
6.38pm. Over 5% counted in Mirani, on the primary vote least. The 2PP swing is 12.2%, just enough to deliver the seat to Labor, but that’s only from about 600 votes, the 2PP count being some distant behind the primary.
6.35pm. “All over the shop outside of urban areas”, says Possum, who has his act together sooner than I do. “Big indie, KAP and PUP votes in some places, smashing the LNP primary”.
6.33pm. I’m not telling you anything here you wouldn’t already know, but for the record, Leroy Lynch relates the exit polling in comment. Usual story for the Galaxy state poll: it would only be of use if we knew what seats, and what the swing was. But clearly Newman is gone in Ashgrove, and the whole show looks like being worse than expected for the LNP.
6.26pm. So there are exit polls, and they show frankly astounding result for Labor. Perhaps this means the Ashgrove debacle has driven late-deciders to Labor in their droves. I suspect there is at least an element of that. But exit polls generally target particular electorates, and are difficult to read if you don’t know which ones or how they’ve gone about it.
6.25pm. Otherwise, it’s the usual early count story of tiny booths coming in from rural electorates.
6.23pm. I’ll say this much: Ben Hopper doesn’t look like he’s going to do much in Condamine, so mark that one down for the LNP.
6.15pm. Polls closed 15 minutes ago. I’ve been distracted for the past hour or so, but I understand the exit polls were interesting. More on that shortly. I see a booth from Warrego is in, but there’ll be nothing worth discussing for at least half an hour.
Just Me – yes, until that incident, it was wonderful looking up at the stars on a warm Darwin night! Still miss it!
[Has Anthony Green retracted his earlier statement that this would go down to preferences?]
He’s just pointed out that the LNP leads on the primary vote in 50 seats, which is to say that the election went down to preferences.
swamprat – Baird will be adding a few extra prayers tonight that Tony quits before the week is out.
[4.Abbott has cancelled his Press Club speech for Monday and Murdoch protégé Bishop is attending instead.
5. Strong high level rumours that Abbott will resign Monday.
]
Good news if true.
Where is that Tony to resign rumor coming from.
Surely he isn’t running scared, we didn’t see Howard resign after a few state election thrashings in Victoria, NSW and Queensland.
4.Abbott has cancelled his Press Club speech for Monday and Murdoch protégé Bishop is attending instead.
You’re joking.
[Surely he isn’t running scared, we didn’t see Howard resign after a few state election thrashings in Victoria, NSW and Queensland.]
I reckon you’ll need sticks of TNT to blast Tony out. If the libs want him out someone will have to challenge.
Is the press club cancellation for real?
Surely that is the epitome of cutting and running?
Nah that has been reported in several places.
Ah… Darwin. Rocket Rocket, I mean to respond earlier that I was around when Clare Martin won Fannie Bay but had moved on by the time she took government, much to my regret. I probably regard my time in Darwin as the most care-free of my life. Those glorious evenings; those spectacular wet season storms; the sense of frontier; the many contradictions; the fascinating characters; the front seat view of the glorious indigenous history of this continent.
The bastard troll in me wants Tony to hang on for dear life, and then drag down as many as he can when he falls.
30 odd beers later. HOORAY. Buuuuuuuuuuuuurp.
Mrs Newman does great nodding
lwp – 857 – once there are two challengers (which I expect by later this week) Tony will not stand in a leadership contest.
“Baird will win in NSW because he is the most unAbbott Tory you will ever find.” – leftwingpinko
From what i read LNP are doing better in NSW, but is it worth the risk of keeping Abbott as the team captain.
Yesterdays rumor was that they had given him 6 months to turn things around, i doubt they took this outcome into consideration.
Swan very good tonight.
Fletcher – 862 – So did you have to go and buy another slab?
Paraphrase: Di Farmer says we need to understand why we won, and not squander our victory by not understanding what the electorate wants. Go Gal!!!
I think the only circumstance in which Tony Abbott would back out of the NPC would be if there is something clear and present unfolding with regard to his leadership. To back out otherwise would be a shocking bad look, simply adding to the sense of a rotting carcass as PM.
alias
[ I probably regard my time in Darwin as the most care-free of my life. Those glorious evenings; those spectacular wet season storms; the sense of frontier; the many contradictions; the fascinating characters; the front seat view of the glorious indigenous history of this continent.]
Plus 10000
[The bastard troll in me wants Tony to hang on for dear life, and then drag down as many as he can when he falls.]
I agree. I reckon I enjoyed 2014 way more than 2010-13 – because we finally got to see the evidence of what we all suspected for so long – that Abbott would be the most laughable, hopeless PM since Billy McMahon.
“@billshortenmp: While Campbell Newman tried to hide Tony Abbott, the Prime Minister was front and centre every day of this campaign #qldvotes”
It will take a long time for NSW Labor to overcome the stain of Obeid. Replacing his boy with Foley is a start but not enough to get anywhere near government.
Don’t you love this federal Lib woman on the ABC coverage: “Yes we had a vision, sorry I mean we still have a vision, I’m sure we do sort of, well .. “
Question@866
Yes he was excellent.
Oh, the sanguine is going down so well tonight.
As for relevant songs – surely the Righteous Brothers have it with Lost that Lovin Feeling. Or has poroti already beaten me to the sangria?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTvU3BELZEo
Di Farmer was doing very well until she was asked the simple question: so what do you want to do when you get to Parliament. Then she floundered for what seemed like ages until she came up with the line that she wouldn’t steal APs thunder!
Clearly had no platform but “kick Campbell” and “kick Tony”
ABC blonde doing her best to drag a little credibility for the LNP.
I’m amused that the Fourth Estate continually describe themselves as Journalists when the vast majority would be flat out making it as reporters …..
[It will take a long time for NSW Labor to overcome the stain of Obeid. Replacing his boy with Foley is a start but not enough to get anywhere near government.]
Agree.
Ick, Whitsunday and Mansfield both LNP ahead now; very narrowly, though.
THey’ll call a spill Monday morning. He’s been told & cancelled the press club because he won’t be PM by luchtime.
I called this a few pages back.
I am Spartagus…
The ALP winners just say “the LNP just does not listen”……….
There is no issue but “listening”. It’s an auditory issue, nothing more, nothing less.
The ALP offers nothing but MPs with more acute hearing!!!
What a waste of opportunity.
The LNP would have put the boot in on incompetence, money wasting etc, etc. blah, blah.
Why don’t the ALP MPs talk of the massive inequality of LNP policies? Is that because Murdoch does not approve?
I think the ALP is the real shiver looking for a spine to run up.
The LNP will definitely win NSW*
*Please note, I also predicted an LNP win in SA and Qld!
Not a single mention of the Queensland election on the 3aw 11 o’clock news.
As “Richie” might have said – a pretty piss poor performance that.
Well Well, some didn’t believe me when Labor QLD may get in.
I hope Abbott hangs on until the next election. To quote Paul Keating “I want to see more of the ashen faced performances, more of them. There will be no quick execution for you”
Queensland’s lovely fascist streak continues:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-police-called-to-polling-booth-over-man-wearing-f-tony-abbott-t-shirt/story-fnr8vuu5-1227203200245
Honestly, why do the Queensland police respond to such things? Don’t they have bikies to fight?
[bug1
From what i read LNP are doing better in NSW, but is it worth the risk of keeping Abbott as the team captain.]
The LNP haven’t been nearly as rabid here as they have been federally. Can’t be bothered finding the source but I even once heard a LNP MP answer a question with “because we believe in Climate Change”. Not like Abbott at all.
If the LNP want their stocks to improve they need to get rid of the rabid ideology that is Abbott’s signature.
Cameron Dick looked devastated by the Labor win tonight. its because he was hoping for Labor to fall short and replace Palaszczuk. Good to see the peoples will prevail and not that of particular individuals…
[Just Me – yes, until that incident, it was wonderful looking up at the stars on a warm Darwin night! Still miss it!]
One of Darwin’s best kept secrets, I think. Been to dozens and dozens of all types of concerts over the many years I have lived here. Great venue.
[ABC blonde doing her best to drag a little credibility for the LNP.]
She’s been good tonight, and somewhat pro-Labor if anything.
“Mrs Newman does great nodding”
Don’t go there!
:devil:
Zoidlord
Hey good to see you again. Enjoy the I told youse 🙂
Fred @ 832 – you Syrious? Abbott pulls out of press club? Is that for real?
[Di Farmer was doing very well until she was asked the simple question: so what do you want to do when you get to Parliament. Then she floundered for what seemed like ages until she came up with the line that she wouldn’t steal APs thunder!
Clearly had no platform but “kick Campbell” and “kick Tony”]
With that post, you display all the aggrieved qualities that I’ve been targeting with my Twitter trolling tonight.
However, this being PB, I shall refrain.
It’s enough to know you’re hurting…
silentmajority@881
I am Spartacus 🙂
Jake 839
Why not . Give them a taste of their own medicine.
With nearly 60% counted the ALP lead in Maryborough is over 2% on the TPP and whilst on primary vote I can see why its viewed as safe but I think it can be placed at this stage as a ALP gain.
Kids are hard to fool: https://twitter.com/KieraGorden/status/561477557720059905/photo/1
Solid gold from Swan there