The New Year polling drought has come to an end with three new results this week, and the promise at least of Ipsos returning in the next weekly cycle. This of course comes at a particularly interesting time, in view of the Prince Philip idiocy and subsequent ramping up of leadership speculation. However, this week’s batch of polls when taken together offer only a partial account of the impact of an announcement that was made on Monday. To deal with them in chronological order:
• Essential Research surveyed from Friday to Monday, but even without much scope for the Prince Philip issue to affect the result, its fortnightly rolling average produced what by its standards was significant movement to Labor. After moving a point to the Coalition last week, Labor’s two-party lead was back to 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor, 39% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. As always, half of this result comes from the previous week.
• Roy Morgan deviated somewhat from its usual practice in providing a poll of 2057 respondents in which the field work was conducted from Friday to Tuesday, in contrast to its usual practice of combining two weeks of results and surveying only on the weekend. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period came after the Prince Philip disaster. Compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gained a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively, while the Greens were up from 9.5% to 12%. That left Labor with formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5.
• The Seven Network sent ReachTEL into the field on Tuesday evening to gauge the impact of Sir Prince Philip, and all things considered the result could have been worse for the Coalition, who trailed 54-46 from primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens. Things got uglier with questions on Tony Abbott’s leadership, which you can read about at the link.
When all that’s plugged into BludgerTrack, the model’s reaction is to move the two-party preferred result 0.9% in favour of Labor, translating into gains on the seat projection of two in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. One suspects there will be more where that came from over the next week or two. However, as you can see from the trendlines on the sidebar, the model does not read this as movement to Labor over the past week, but has rather retrospectively determined that the movements being recorded over New Year (Coalition up, Greens down) hadn’t happened after all.
Gecko
Here is Syd Walker’s twitterfeed
https://mobile.twitter.com/sydwalker
Just back from the polling booth.
I flatly refused to provide I.D.
Overheard the young fellow at the declarations table casually ask the lady in front of me if there was any reason why she didn’t have I.D. with her.
I waited for him to ask me the same thing so I could give him a gob full but unfortunately he thought better of it.
poroti
Very good
That Nine News/Galaxy exit poll:
54/46.
To Labor.
Can that possibly be real?
mimhoff
Surely they jest!!
#BREAKING: Our EXCLUSIVE #9News Galaxy exit poll predicts victory for @AnnastaciaMP and @QLDLabor. #QldVotes #QldPol pic.twitter.com/BhvJSLw7hp
If it does go as per the exit poll and Labor does win, will Schadenfreude Steak be on the menu at the Press Club on Monday?
I’m surprised that with so little going on in Federal and Queensland that so many comments today have been about boats.
Surely we could have had some Great big Labor debt; Mining Tax and Carbon tax for a bit of variety.
[That Nine News/Galaxy exit poll:
54/46.
To Labor.]
If true that would be a quadruple somersault with full pike and twist level FARK!!!
Sir pajama
If its the PM invited to talk it may not be Abbott by then
Assuming exit poll in urban centre translates across state.
Still I think we can say Newman is gone
poroti
That exit poll seems quite unbelievable
Arrnea Stormbringer@617
Please tell me this is a joke.
Say 10 000 come each day. Qantas has to scrounge around the world’s airlines to rent planes to put on extra flights. All the international airports and all the military airports are clogged.
Really?
victoria
It does indeed. Ch9 Brisvegas says it is a sample of 2560 . Not sure what sort of significance that gives to the results. William would know.
@BlurbUllage, 652
That would’ve been simply nasty on your part “to give him a gobfull”.
I’m a little sensitive as my wife is a declarations officer today. They are doing their job. If you want to spit at someone, do it to the govt that makes the rules and not the people at the booths.
They have enough trouble with nutters as it is (not rare for Police to get called because of threatening behaviour of idiots. Some with mental health issues, others with an axe to grind.)
@ don, 661
As with Boerwar, you need to actually read my posts before you respond to them.
I’m in a generous mood though, so I’ll reiterate the relevant part:
If “open-slather” policies resulted in every refugee in the world coming to Australia to claim asylum, we would have had 50 million “boat people” under Labor, not 50 thousand.
Victoria @ 660
[That exit poll seems quite unbelievable]
Seems that way to me. But then I would have said that Labor being left with only 7 seats in 2012 was quite unbelievable. Whether it’s accurate or not, if it is not off the planet Qld has at least a hung Parliament.
Not long now till we find out.
I’m still hoping, 2 first term coalition governments gone, 3 to go.
Imagine Can Do’s concession speech. No I don;t mean the bit about bikies… the bit where he starts blaming Abbott.
[#BREAKING: Our EXCLUSIVE #9News Galaxy exit poll predicts victory for @AnnastaciaMP and @QLDLabor. #QldVotes #QldPol pic.twitter.com/BhvJSLw7hp]
Tony Abbott just ordered a double scotch. 🙂
(Thanks Vic)
TPOF
Apparently the exit polls at the Labor party left being able to fit in a large car election were accurate so who knows.
“@SBSNews: Exit polls dire for LNP in QLD election. Exit polls dire for Qld’s LNP govt”
Note the plural
Its going to be good to see the smile on Wayne Swan’s face tonight. Win or lose for Labor that is one hell of a swing against the LNP
I’d say they’re probably a pretty good indication that the LNP is in trouble in the 17 polled seats, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a statewide swing. I can’t imagine Galaxy were out polling punters in the big rural booths.
Still, it’s certainly boosted the entertainment potential of this evening.
George Brandis over-egging the level of support that Abbott has within the party.
And now the delightful Kroger follows through.
“@bevanshields85: Richo: ‘Mal Brough has made a total mug of himself’ #auspol”
Sometimes Richo is right
Arrnea @ 664:
[If “open-slather” policies resulted in every refugee in the world coming to Australia to claim asylum, we would have had 50 million “boat people” under Labor, not 50 thousand.]
This is a ludicrous proposition given less than 3% of refugees seek or are granted resettlement either via the UNHCR voluntary resettlement program or seeking asylum in the manner outlined in the Articles of the Convention (i.e, having met the definition of a refugee, be outside the country in which you fear persecution and inside a country that is a signatory to the convention. The manner in which you reach a convention state, boat, plane, car or bicycle, has, or should have no bearing on your protection claim).
[CTar1
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 5:56 pm | Permalink
Bw
I think you will find that they were Hawks.
Whatever the were they were low and made a lot of noise.]
It was actually the first time I had seen them. They were a bit raggedy arse when it came to formation flying. I guess with six FA18s in Dubai, the RAAF is stretched to the limit.
The Hawks were very, very noisy.
[WarrenPeace
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 6:15 pm | Permalink
I’m surprised that with so little going on in Federal and Queensland that so many comments today have been about boats.]
It is the Greens’ fall back topic of choice.
Now that SYRIZA is buggering Greece.
@ Alan Shore, 675
I was responding to accusations (from Boerwar et al) that the policy I proposed at 609 would have led to 50 million refugees beating a path to our door.
If Labor’s policy didn’t, neither would mine.
[I’d say they’re probably a pretty good indication that the LNP is in trouble in the 17 polled seats, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a statewide swing. I can’t imagine Galaxy were out polling punters in the big rural booths.]
On the other hand, Palaszczuk probably isn’t going to win government from the big rural seats. If it’s 54-46 spread across all the cities, then that’s a very good position.
Boerwar 677
I doubt it’s the Greens
“@vanOnselenP: Here’s how Hockey can fix the budget if Labor somehow win the QLD election…just tell Labor’s leader the GST is 5% & pocket the difference.”
mimhoff
From (possibly unreliable) memory of the last election’s coverage the experts said where it is decided is what happens in SE Qld.
[Alan Shore
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 6:36 pm | Permalink
Arrnea @ 664:
If “open-slather” policies resulted in every refugee in the world coming to Australia to claim asylum, we would have had 50 million “boat people” under Labor, not 50 thousand.
This is a ludicrous proposition given less than 3% of refugees seek or are granted resettlement either via the UNHCR voluntary resettlement program or seeking asylum in the manner outlined in the Articles of the Convention (i.e, having met the definition of a refugee, be outside the country in which you fear persecution and inside a country that is a signatory to the convention. The manner in which you reach a convention state, boat, plane, car or bicycle, has, or should have no bearing on your protection claim).]
This is typical Greens policy ‘thinking’. It just ignores the facts. Easy as that.
There are 50 million refugees. The graph for this number goes up, and up, and up, BTW.
If you offer to fly each and everyone to Australia for processing in Australia then you will get 50 million displaced and dislocated people in Australia. If you don’t offer to fly them in I suppose they might get on boats and float over. Who knows?
But even if your figure of 3% is correct (which it will not be once people are inside Australia) but even if it is correct, then that is 1.5 million refugees. settled in Australia. The other 48.5 million wannabe but failed refugees will somehow or other have to be transferred at Australia’s cost back to the refugees camps whence they came.
Greens thinking on refugees and SYRIZA has a couple of things in common. Of these one is important: Greens thinking is remarkably free of any deep thinking about consequences of actions.
My apologies Arrnea, didn’t see your original post just the quote.
A scientific poll with a sample size of 2,590 has a margin of error of about 2%. How scientific was that Exit Poll I don’t know.
@ Boerwar, 683
Once again, you have failed to actually read my posts before responding to them.
I have not proposed that the Australian government foot the bill for asylum seekers to fly to Australia. I’m proposing that the Australian government simply allow them to fly to Australia for purposes of claiming asylum.
PS: I’m not a member of the Greens, but of the Labor Party, so quit with the baseless labeling.
[WarrenPeace
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 6:42 pm | Permalink
Boerwar 677
I doubt it’s the Greens]
It is the preferred moral high ground of Greens’ political wedging. They just love talking about refugees, asylum seekers and the like. They can’t lose. Everyone else is bad. Real bad. They really are. Only the Greens are moral. Just ask them. So, the Greens love boats.
Once the Greens get into economics, like lauding SYRIZA’s wonderful initiatives for example, the real world rapidly bites them on the bum and they scarper, with their warm fuzzy feelings hurt real bad.
I think the question would be how representative the selected 17 seats were.
“@jarahcrook: My source in the ALP claims their is a 17% swing to Labor. #QLDvotes”
Wowee if that really is true
AS
[I have not proposed that the Australian government foot the bill for asylum seekers to fly to Australia. I’m proposing that the Australian government simply allow them to fly to Australia for purposes of claiming asylum.]
You are not the only Greens touting this line so do not abrogate the rights of your fellow-Greens to have a view.
Where is the justice in expecting asylum seekers to be wealthy enough to pay their own way to Australia.
One Greens justice for the rich refugees and the other for the poor refugees, I suppose.
I expect a new thread very soon, William will be working his arse off and expect Loving It.
24 starts its Qld with Swannie and Antony Green in ten minutes.
The Sky commentariat team seemed to be me to be remarkably relaxed and free of tension. In other words, they are sure they already know the outcome.
Each and every one of them pooh poohed the exit polls. Each of them expected the LNP to hold around 50 seats and each of them expected Newman to lose his seat.
g
WhoTF is Jarah Crook?
@ Boerwar, 690
The point of this policy is to stop the boats. The only humane way to do that is to give those who would seek asylum via boat a cheaper, safer option.
It is much more appealing to would-be asylum seekers to pay a a few hundred dollars for a (relatively safe) plane ride than it is to pay tens of thousands for a much longer, more dangerous voyage on some Indonesian’s leaky fishing boat.
bw
Don’t know don’t care. I made it plain it may not be true
[608
TPOF
I should add, though, that boats will never be killed as an issue.]
I understand. I used killed to mean politically neutralised, or managed adequately. It will never go away completely.
PS: Read my goddamn posts before responding to them, Boerwar.
Boerwar 693 As Treebeard would say let’s not be hasty.
Boerwar – no one really, so no way of telling how good his ALP “source” is.
https://twitter.com/jarahcrook
It would be good ettiquette here to say who someone is when posting big claims from twitter.