Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL offers what is perhaps a note of insight into the tone of panic that has been emerging lately from the Campbell Newman campaign, with no sign of the late-campaign surge that powered him to victory in Ashgrove in 2012. Labor’s lead has in fact increased from 53-47 in the January 13 poll to a formidable 54-46, from primary votes of 46.5% from Labor’s Kate Jones (down 1.1%), 42.3% for Newman (down 1.4%) and 8.2% for the Greens, up a solid 2.8%. The poll was conducted yesterday by automated phone polling from a sample of 861; full results here.
trawler@200
Put ya poll down and head for the fridge. 🙂
teh_drewski @196:
Is that what you say to every good poll for the ALP? Shame on you.
[A combined reading of that and section 23.]
Thanks for that I’d missed it in my skim through – a very odd provision but then state constitutions are a bit odd as is Queensland.
Although if you read 23 as effectively prescribing that Ministers must be members of the assembly where is the provision that allows someone who isn’t to be a minister for a short period?
When conducting weekly federal polling during a state election campaign, why not ask how respondents in the relevant state how they plan to vote? Having asked, why not publish the results?
Matt – is your only question to everything partisan arrogance?
The length of the poll period, the small sample size and the internet-only methodology are the problems, not the result.
Take off your blinkers and learn to psephology.
*and yes, I realise “learn to psephology” is incorrect grammar.
WB at #204
Wouldn’t the numbers be, usually, too small to be meaningful?
And do the pollsters make sure that their categories [gender, urban/rural, income whatever] would be matched to each state subset so to be an accurate snapshot of each state?
@ Matt, 202
I want Labor to win as much as you do, but a sub-600 sample taken over three weeks showing 50-50 is pretty meaningless at this stage of the campaign.
One doesn’t have to be a partisan hack to think that.
We need a Galaxy 🙂
I guess this just means supplementary results from the poll conducted on Tuesday night:
Bill McDonald @billmcdonald07
An exclusive poll reveals more trouble for Campbell Newman in Ashgrove. Only on #7newsq at 6pm.
Arnea
However the three weeks is encouraging because the mood has DEFINITELY shifted more towards Labor over the last 2 weeks and this week most of all.
Not sure how much more trouble he can be in William.
@ daretotread, 211
I agree that the mood has shifted, but to what extent this poll is even representative to start with is questionable due to the methodology and small sample size.
The Internet-only polling method is particularly concerning, because one can fairly easily imagine that skewing the results toward Labor/Greens at the expense of the LNP (and right-leaning minors/independents).
So if the poll actually represents 52-48 to the LNP when you account for the bias, that’s less reassuring for Labor.
As such, I would be inclined to write off the poll’s result altogether.
Newman is out to $3-00 in Ashgrove, and Kate Jones in to $1-35. One way traffic.
Ch7 are just reporting on the Essential result and calling the election neck and neck.
Only two more sleeps before all of Campbell’s worries are over. He can rest easy on Saturday night, knowing he gave it his best, and able to blame others around him for losing such a massive majority so quickly. I so look forward to his concession speech, no doubt it will be Statesmanlike. I hope the result is clear early on Saturday night, so that we can get down to debate who will be the new LNP leader.
Newman has only spent one term in parliament, but he has achieved so much in that short time. No, hang on, he has broken every major promise and sacked his way to a stalled State economy. Perhaps the army will take him back? They probably still need engineers in Iraq.
Palaszczuk has made one mistake today, but so far Kate Jones has been a flawless campaigner. Well done to her and her many supporters.
Jokes aside, has there ever been a previous occasion in Australian political history when a leader has gone from State premier to tossed out of his seat in a single term? It must set a record.
@ davidwh, 215
Commercial news networks have never shown a particular aptitude for gauging the significance of polls based on their sample sizes and methodology.
Yes the Seven report is here. The Reachtell aggregated poll (over three weeks) is now 50/50 2pp.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/qld/a/26144528/lnp-and-labor-neck-and-neck-poll/
If the trend has been to Labor following an early LNP lead, Labor might now be in front.
@ Socrates, 218
Only if the questionable methodology of the poll hasn’t completely screwed the result.
Socrates that’s Essential not ReachTel.
Arrnea
I have not seen many details reported. What part of the methodology is questionable?
It’s surprising that there wasn’t a Reachtel poll of Qld as a whole on Ch 7 tonight – maybe tomorrow night?
Davidwh
Thanks, noted. Still, the trend seems to be Labor’s friend.
@ Socrates, 221
As noted by teh_drewski at 205, the poll was conducted by internet polling ONLY and had a very small sample size (under 600).
[“If that were to occur, wouldn’t the people of Queensland be paying an unelected person $440K per year plus a $70K per year incremental pay rises?”]
Wasn’t that what we were paying Anna 1’s husband before they were tossed out of Government?
[“Jokes aside, has there ever been a previous occasion in Australian political history when a leader has gone from State premier to tossed out of his seat in a single term? It must set a record.”]
Before we answer that… has there ever been a previous occasion in Australian political history when a leader has gone from unelected member of an opposition partys currently held seat to Premier?
I think if there is an argument to be made it is he choose the wrong seat to be in.
It would actually be quite remarkable for an elected politician to have only ever been in Parliament as leader. An opportunity for Newman to set an unlikely and almost certainly unrepeatable precedent.
TBA
So that would be a No? Yes the fact that Newman did not have to serve as a member first before becoming a premier probably did undermine his credibility.
[So that would be a No? Yes the fact that Newman did not have to serve as a member first before becoming a premier probably did undermine his credibility.]
Don’t know about Newman choosing the wrong seat but we can be certain the LNP chose the wrong leader
Labor released it’s economic plan today.
All 3 Pages worth(and I bet it was double spaced too!)
Good God… and people are voting for these guys? We are still fixing up the $80 Billion in debt they left last time.
God Help Queensland
[All 3 Pages worth(and I bet it was double spaced too!]
That suggests you haven’t read it… I’m startled! I thought you’d be interested in a thorough analysis… OK, I’ll stop.
Reachtel are calling tonight. Just got polled – wide range of questions.
@ TBA, 230
That’s still better than the LNP’s economic plan – sell everything that isn’t nailed down (as well as some of the stuff that is), drive down wages for everyone and kill the Great Barrier Reef.
Friend in QLD has been ReachTEL’d and Newspoll’d tonight.
Newspoll was standard.
ReachTEL included question “Does the possibility of not knowing who the LNP leader will be make you more likely or less likely to vote for the LNP” or wtte.
Also asked if LNP deserve re-election and who you think will win
[It would actually be quite remarkable for an elected politician to have only ever been in Parliament as leader. An opportunity for Newman to set an unlikely and almost certainly unrepeatable precedent.]
Clive Palmer?
If you count parliaments separately then Barton of course.
During Newman’s presser, he said WTTE that voting for Labor would result in a “hung parliament” that sees a minority government supported by Labor, Greens and other minor parties.
No offence to the Greens here, but I think he is giving too much credit to the Queensland Greens, who would struggle to win a seat this Saturday.
Farq Newman
Farq the LNP
Hectic nights tomorrow and Saturday.
How did Labor deal with the 67% of dividend flow from the electricity assets that is being diverted to paying down debt in their economic package?
Spending promises of $1.6 billion. Savings of $1.7 billion. So where does the revenue to replace the dividend income come from?
TBA 226
I think if there is an argument to be made it is he choose the wrong seat to be in.
Because all the LNP people hated him and no-one was going to stand aside to give him an easier seat. Same reason no-one will quit for a by-election if he loses Ashgrove.
Looking at past editions of that on-line Essential poll. Does it have a Labor bias?
Essential doesn’t seem to have a particular bias however it’s often slow to move with any trend and this particular sample is a small one covering three sampling periods.
The same sample of respondents that produced this Essential result returned the following result on federal voting intention: LNP 39%, ALP 38%, Greens 8%, PUP 5%. Two-party: 52-48 to Labor. Make of that what you will.
@ William Bowe, 243
That’s interesting, but I’m still inclined to mainly disregard the poll as a whole due to the shonky methodology.
It’s also worth noting that Labor being only on 52 isn’t too surprising for a polling period mostly before Australia day. Maybe a little soft for Labor, but not terribly so.
Polled for federal voting intention by Galaxy just now (here in WA).
Questions about which party you’d vote for (PUP, Family First, Labor, Liberal, National & Greens given as options), who is your preferred PM (Abbott or Shorten), whether you approve of the Knighthood for Prince Philip and whether you approve of Australia becoming a Republic.
William is the 2PP difference due to OPV as the primary numbers are basically the same?
Oh come on, it’s just decimal differences in state-federal voting intentions and a rounding issue, surely.
[Friend in QLD has been ReachTEL’d and Newspoll’d tonight.]
So Rebachtel should be on Ch 7 news tomorrow night and Newspoll out Saturday morning.
That leaves Galaxy (if they polled) out tomorrow morning or Saturday morning.
@ PhoenixGreen, 247
I wouldn’t be so quick to assume that federal and state voting intention line up perfectly. If they did, the Napthine government in Victoria would have been defeated in a landslide and the Giddings Labor government would never have been defeated.
Rebachtel = Reachtel
Auto correct at work