Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL offers what is perhaps a note of insight into the tone of panic that has been emerging lately from the Campbell Newman campaign, with no sign of the late-campaign surge that powered him to victory in Ashgrove in 2012. Labor’s lead has in fact increased from 53-47 in the January 13 poll to a formidable 54-46, from primary votes of 46.5% from Labor’s Kate Jones (down 1.1%), 42.3% for Newman (down 1.4%) and 8.2% for the Greens, up a solid 2.8%. The poll was conducted yesterday by automated phone polling from a sample of 861; full results here.
ESJ
[I hold no candle for either party Socrates. government is the problem not the solution.]
Before the Newman croaks you will have denied them three times.
The possibility of Labor victory is now more likely than the possibility of a Newman victory.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/qld-election-2015-lnp-mps-race-across-state-as-labor-chances-improve-20150128-130ie1.html
At this point Jeff Blei-Borg really needs to answer questions about how he will act as Qld Premier if he is returned on Saturday to lead an LNP minority government. Will he form government with One Nation MPs? Harsh questions, but all based on more likely outcomes than Newman being in office next week.
Re government is the problem.
Ah huh! So that’s the grand plan of the Coalition. Do governing so badly people will want to get rid of Government all together.
Down there for dancin’.
Tony Fitzgerald called for revolution last night on 7:30. Check out his article on the Drum if you want a list of the LNP’s immoral actions over the past three years.
Based on his efforts in the last week I think Newman thinks he will go down and is determined that he will not go down alone.
Looks like Can-Do will soon be Doggy-Do.
Kevin
[Thylacines – nope, it would be great if there were still any but I’m very confident that animal is alas extinct.]
The thylacine is certainly extinct. There is still teh odd sighting though. As such, the thylacine is regarded as the world’s most common extinct animal.
RR
[Maybe the DNA in the alcohol-preserved specimens could yet be “repaired” and used in a Tasmanian Devil ovum (closest relative) to bring it back “Jurassic Park” style?]
Professor Mike Archer has a similar plan. It’s a dream. At best, the technology is over a hundred years away – if it can be done at all (which I doubt).
Extinction is forever, I’m afraid.
102, Here’s an amusing piece of journalism. The venerable Brissie Times considers the seat of Hinchinbrook is one of seven northern seats that are “all under threat of falling to Labor.” The margin there is 18.9% to Labor, who could only manage 16.5% of the PV and finished behind KAP last time. With an 18-year old kid as Labor’s preselected candidate, I dont think so! Then again, I said the same about Roy the Boy in the federal seat of Longman in 2010, but at least he was 20. The last time Hinchinbrook voted Labor was in 1957. Ahhh, Queensland!
The LNP is going to get trashed on saturday. I predicted this a long time ago, but nobody believed me.
kakuru – I know – we should spend money on stopping more extinctions. Such as the Tas Devil, with the facial tumor disease rampant. A few years ago I even wondered whether maybe this had been around a long time and perhaps been partly responsible for the thylacine’s demise.
But I am reliably told by experts that it is actually a transmitted cancer (direct impregnation of cancer cells) and they are certain it is a fairly rcent mutation that has done this.
[Professor Mike Archer has a similar plan. It’s a dream. At best, the technology is over a hundred years away – if it can be done at all (which I doubt).]
They’ve already managed to use preserved cells from endangered species to clone new individuals, so I’m not sure why you think it’s “over a hundred years away” – look how quickly cloning and genetic science generally has come on in only a couple of short decades.
Well the Smurf Army was back in big numbers along Bribie Island Road this morning so obviously things ate tightening.
What is the smurf army?
Itep @ 114
Smurf Army = LNP brigade, blue and white.
Bribie Island Rd is located in the Pumicestone electorate. Very safe LNP with a margin of 12.1% http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/pumi/
I know it’s what the pendulum says, but I wouldn’t be calling anything 12% safe in this election
you know the pro-LNP MSM is getting desperate when they say the LNP is headed for victory purely based on a better premier rating and no voting intention results http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/2015/01/28/lnp-headed-for-victory–poll-results-show.html
in fact, i am surprised the gap between Newman and Palaszczuk is not greater given the customer base of Sky News. The LNP is going to get trashed on Saturday. As i predicted a long time ago.
PBateman:
[They’ve already managed to use preserved cells from endangered species to clone new individuals, so I’m not sure why you think it’s “over a hundred years away” – look how quickly cloning and genetic science generally has come on in only a couple of short decades.]
Good point – as generally applied to endangered species. But no such insurance policy existed when the thylacine was on the threshold of extinction. As I understand it, the thylacine material that happens to be preserved is not ideal for cloning (extensive DNA degradation, etc). Ditto for the dodo and other long-dead species.
RR
[kakuru – I know – we should spend money on stopping more extinctions. Such as the Tas Devil, with the facial tumor disease rampant]
Yep – and thankfully there is hope on the Tassie devil front.
Overall, I agree that we should be devoting more resources to saving species. If people get the (wrong) idea that clever scientists can simply bring extinct species back to life at some undetermined point in the future – it will undercut valuable conservation measures.
Anna P’s GST gaffe this morning will no doubt be all over the news this evening, unless Newman can come up with something better.
“Pass”
Amazing to watch the implosion of the Abbott Govt with Rupert Murdoch clearly now campaigning for the PM’s removal.
We can assume an all-out barrage of negativity by News Ltd against Tony Abbott until he is replaced by Murdochs preferred alternative PM.
@120 – the story is that no one knows who will be premier if Newman loses Ashgrove. Newman’s presser was only about that.
On a uniform swing of 12.1% the seat split would be 44 Labor to 40 LNP according to Antony’s calculator.
Newsfrom Maroochydore electorate.
ALP will be ver happy to get a PV with a 3 in front. 🙂
Anthony’s calculator predicts an LNP minority starting with a swing of 11%. Labor would need 12.7% for a bare majority.
I would be surprised if Labor got a majority but think a minority government is possible.
davidwh @ 126
I still think it’s more likely that the LNP will make a majority – without Ashgrove.
Twitter is alight with news of a change in Newman’s campaign plans. He’s scratched his regional tour and is on a plane back to Brisbane from Cairns.
Panic stations?
trawler he seemed panicked on the weekend and the LNP’s own internal polling probably picked up the swing earlier than ReachTel.
J341983 – possibly, but the news media will love the potential Premier not knowing what the GST rate is, too.
Can any one tell me if the dearth of Qld state-wide polls with TPP results is unusual? I would have expected one yesterday. Also, is there any sort of news blackout in Qld before the election?
Thanks in advance!
Brisbane Times seems to have pulled their article on the GST comment.
Douglas William posted yesterday that the dearth of polls was similar to the WA election.
I think political adds have to stop tonight or at least I hope that is still the case.
davidwh, agreed that Newman started to panic last week, but I thought in the last few days he regained composure.
I wonder if he’s returned to Brisbane to shore up his chances in Ashgrove, or if he already considers it lost and is concentrating on LNP primary vote?
Here’s BT’s GST article http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/qld-election-2015-annastacia-palaszczuk-cant-answer-gst-question-20150129-130r7d.html
And article on Newman’s return to Brisbane
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-premier-rushes-to-brisbane-amid-poll-woes-20150129-130v8l.html
Palaszczuk was asked about the GST answer in her law and order presser and laughed it off as a consequence of not having her coffee yet.
Labor costings will be released at 2pm by Curtis Pitt.
129
It is stupid and out of touch looking (especially with a never changed, long standing and uniform rate) but the GST rate is set by the Commonwealth. It will get coverage but is should not be fatal, especially as Newman may have skipped the question.
I think it’s extremely naïve to suggest that it’s OK for the alternative Premier to not be on top of basic details like the GST rate, given the absolutely critical role of the GST to state budgets and the fact that, absent a complete change of heart from the Commonwealth, state support for any changes to the GST – including the rate – would be driven by the states.
The debate around the GST is absolutely critical to financial governance at state level, it’s incomprehensible to me that someone putting their hand up for leadership would genuinely not know what the rate is.
Which is why I think the “brain fart” argument that Labor seem to be going with is much more credible than “it’s not important because it’s a Commonwealth matter”.
I believe the most media-proof minority government would be led by a Newman-less LNP. Both Newman and Palasczcuk have already committed to majority or nothing. Anyone who replaces Newman cannot be held to this.
(Not that I approve the LNP in charge)
teh_drewski, I agree. I am concerned she could not answer that question – she may have had an “expressive aphasia” moment, as I think that most Australians could tell you the GST rate of the top of their heads. Pressure can do funny things.
Thylacine,
I am aware of the 1980’s sightings. Many reputable experts have backed them. I believe it likely they were still around at that time but as follow up expert searches found nothing it would suggest they were very few in number, probably isolated individuals.
Some reasonable sightings outside Tasmania (mainland and PNG) give some hope as expert searches have not been as thorough in those areas. A biologist told me (cant find anything online about it) there was a fossil found in WA that someone dated to be only 100years old – which seems crazy when the literature suggests they went extinct on the mainland 2000 years ago.
Having spent time in remote areas I understand why some hold out hope. However, the lack of scats, diggings and carcasses and reliable sightings suggest its game over.
I found this article –
http://www.thylacineresearchunit.org/sightingreports.htm
Has anyone pondered what the outcome will be if Newman holds on personally, but neither party get a majority? Another election?
SKatich
[I am aware of the 1980′s sightings. Many reputable experts have backed them. I believe it likely they were still around at that time but as follow up expert searches found nothing it would suggest they were very few in number, probably isolated individuals.]
I’m skeptical of those sightings in the 1980’s. But I guess it’s a moot point – the thylacine is gone, full stop.
I would think the Governor would only order a further election after both the majors have tested confidence in the House and failed. You don’t need a majority to achieve that.
[Has anyone pondered what the outcome will be if Newman holds on personally, but neither party get a majority? Another election?]
A 12+% swing statewide, but only 5-% in Ashgrove?
Seems a very unlikely scenario.
One of the parties will wriggle out of the commitment to not lead a minority government and hope the electorate forgets by the time of the next election. I still think that’s an unlikely result.
Basically I think you have to ignore the hype during an election campaign. I think either of LNP or Labor will form government if they receive sufficient support from independents. In fact I would argue it is their responsibility to do so and respect the wishes of the people. That is our democratic system and not something for political party’s to play games with.
Teh drewski:
If only you’d ever apply that eagle eye to the Lieberal Party! The fact is that Palaszczkuk, brain farts and all, is a much, much more scrutinized Opposition Leader than Tony Abbott ever was…or Campbell Newman, for that matter.
But that’s the way of it for Labor: Every election, they’re fighting two opponents – the Coalition (or LNP in Queensland) and the media.
The bet shops still have the LNP around 10/1 on and Labor 5/1 so the odds are still for a LNP majority government.
I was hesitant to post that thylacine piece on the QLD election thread but if you check the link you will notice the most recent sighting comes from the sunshine coast hinterland. Tenuous I know.
As for QLD post election – any chance of Newman trying to lead the LNP without a seat while he madly tries to find a new one? Nah, crazy, even for QLD.
[As for QLD post election – any chance of Newman trying to lead the LNP without a seat while he madly tries to find a new one? Nah, crazy, even for QLD.]
He wouldn’t have the internal support for it to be even considered.
davidwh,
I am sure Newman is considering it.