BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Better late than never, BludgerTrack makes its return for 2015.

The mad scramble to catch up on the surprisingly early Queensland election has left BludgerTrack unattended to, despite the publication last week of the first polls of the year on voting intention from Essential Research and Roy Morgan, together with a bonus Morgan phone poll on leadership ratings (supplemented by these findings on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, which find Tony Abbott is now in third place behind Julie Bishop as well as Malcolm Turnbull). My normal practice of updating this overnight on Wednesday/Thursday will resume henceforth.

The latest reading records a pretty solid shift to the Coalition since the last result in mid-December. In comparison with the in-depth state-level reading I put together after The Australian published Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns at the end of the year, the Coalition is up two seats in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and Queensland. But if you want to hold off for polling not conducted during the summer break before taking the results too seriously, I won’t judge you.

Closely inspect the scatterplot on the sidebar (located lower down than usual thanks to the Queensland election poll tracker) and you will observe the disparity between the results from Essential Research and Roy Morgan, the latter of which appears twice as I break it down into two separate results to reflect the fact that it is conducted over two weekends. As you can see, the trendline seeks to split the difference between the two sets of results, and considers last year’s polling to be old news. The two pollsters’ headline two-party figures were in fact much the same, but came out very differently once the meaty bias adjustment to the notoriously pro-Labor Morgan series was applied. Similar caveats should be applied to the Greens vote, which is now in single figures for the first time since who knows when. This may well be accurate for all I know, but the wisest course would be to consider the jury out for the time being.

The leadership ratings are arguably a bit more interesting, since they encompass a result from Roy Morgan’s low-sample but otherwise high quality phone polling, together with the monthly reading from Essential Research. Both leaders are found to be up quite substantially on net approval, consistent with the notion that the summer break tends to soften the public mood. Bill Shorten had remarkably static ratings throughout 2014, outside of a bump in his favour following the budget, but on the current reading at least he’s moved into the black. Tony Abbott has also moved in a positive direction for the first time since Coalition polling started heading south again in October. On preferred prime minister though, the leaders’ gains cancel out, leaving Shorten’s lead much as it was before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,106 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 23
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  2. Speaking of justice. How farked is this from the UK Tory scumsters ?

    [Victims of two of Britain’s most worrying miscarriages of justice of modern times are to take the Justice Secretary, Chris Grayling, to court over changes to the law stopping them from receiving compensation for the 24 years they wrongly spent behind bars.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wrongly-convicted-men-launch-new-case-against-the-justice-secretary-9985773.html

  3. Bemused@150

    I definitely opposed the executions of the Bali Bombers, as did at least one of the relatives of Australians who died. My memory is that the family member who was vocal in opposing the death penalty for the Bali Bombers was a magistrate or judge. He knew that no good would be served by the executions.

    Also, I thought Tony Abbot was dog whistling when he asked that “The Australians” on death row not be executed, while offering for free that the executions would in no way affect our diplomatic relationship with Indonesia. By asking that the “Australians” be spared, he was setting up the Indonesian Government for an easy way to say no – because under no circumstances can the Indonesian government look like they are treating Australians differently. So, the coalition get what they want – some brown Australian slaughtered to make it look like they are prosecuting the “war on drugs”, and the coalition look as though they have made representsation on their behalf.

  4. Stuff off the interwebs today

    Campbell Newman makes a number of new promises

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-18/lnp-appeals-to-young-voters/6023560

    [One million Queensland households will have their water bills lowered and young people will get a leg-up under a re-elected Liberal National Party (LNP) government, Premier Campbell Newman says.]

    International students being made to work for below award wages? No s##t, Sherlock! I’ve been there before.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/international-students-forced-to-work-for-just-8-an-hour-20150117-12rwuo.html

    Loddonderry MP Bart Bassett blames NSW Libs after being dumped

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/dumped-icac-mp-bart-bassett-lashes-out-at-liberal-head-office-its-your-fault-20150117-12sca2.html

    Statistics on Australia’s porn viewing habits in 2014.

    http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2015/01/every-statistic-about-how-we-view-porn-in-australia-nsfw/ (might not be appropriate for viewing in some locations)

    Man fined for driving an unconventional vehicle without a license.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/man-fined-for-driving-esky-on-footpath-20150117-12sjpq.html

    Wilcox on the state of Twitter this week.

    Finally, ” rel=”nofollow”>only in Melbourne (Fitzroy, to be exact) and in another case, only in Australia.

  6. Thanks Henry @143

    [Discounts can be applied to cigarettes Raaraa. The retailer just can’t advertise when they are on special. Which kind of defeats the point in a way but I suppose it rewards the loyalists.]

    I stand corrected. Do you know if that is different state to state or is it a federal thing?

  7. If Australia did not oppose the executions carried out in Indonesia yesterday, then we have been opposed as hypocrites and our credibility on the subject reduced.

    by bemused on Jan 18, 2015 at 2:53 pm

    I agree, but you would expect the Commonwealth to bat harder for it’s own citizens, also if the Commonwealth started criticising other countries for having the death penalty one of the first they should target would be the USA.

    Can’t see that happening.

  8. One of the problems with the death penalty is that it inevitably becomes a political decision.

    Governments decide which “bad” murderers are executed and the “good” murderers who are spared.

    I think it has been fairly well documented that Henry Bolte was determined Ronald Ryan should hang to restore face after a public campaign saved another killer from the gallows.

    Thus we have people saying execute the Bali bombers but not the Bali drug smugglers and the Australian government seeks to intervene, as much as it can, in one case but not another.

    I have often won an argument with a death penalty advocate by saying I would support it if there were no exceptions. Murder is murder. I say, and it matters not whether the killer is man or woman, young or old, of any race colour of creed …

    Oh you can’t do that they say … And I say well why should someone’s fate be decided by politicians who usually have their own agendas. No answer to that.,

  9. guytaur

    Thank you for posting the notice re Paul O’Grady really sad.

    Paul was a lovely bloke and he acquired the AIDS virus which saw him in hospitals for very long periods.

    Good member of the left and I can only agree with everything that Albo said.

    There will be a lot of good people who will be very sad today.

  11. rossmcg

    [
    One of the problems with the death penalty is that it inevitably becomes a political decision.]
    No.1 problem being the number of innocent people that get sentenced to death .

  12. I assume taking drugs feel good. I assume people don’t take the stuff because they end up writhing in pain and descending into the depths of Hell ( I believe that comes later, when addiction cannot be fed). So how to facilitate people’s informed choices and risks while balancing health costs, criminal opportunity, and long term damage?

    We know what comprehensively does not work and increases harm on all levles; what we have been doing thus far.

    What would work?

    Damned if I know.

  13. Re John Michael Howson and 3AW Melb____________________
    _____________________
    Howson is a dreary old Tea Party-like Tory
    Some years in the USA make him think he is an authoruity on all things American,,,but he is a real Tea Party Man

    Hates Labor and even more the Greens and makes all sort of wild right-wing statments on 3AW in his Sunday program…very predictable on all topics…very anti-Moslem these days as one might expect

    He would be a great” mate” for Alan Jones…in more ways than one too

  14. Clemency under the former Indonesian President SBY was probably the best chance the Bali Nine had. As I understand it now the moment Chan is told he has been declined clemency then both he and sukuraman will be executed three days later – so it could happen within the week.

    The lack of a decision on Chan also protects Sukuraman because under Indonesian law they apparently must be executed together. Who knows the delay on Chan may be precisely because of Australian government diplomatic representations.

    For anyone interested ring the Indonesian Embassy and tell them your opposition tomorrow 6250-8600.

  15. As far as illegal drugs are concerned, the poor kids in state school get the juvenile court records, the private school rich kids get a skiing holiday in the Swiss Alps till Daddy can smooth it over.

    ditto the executioner’s bullet.

    Same the world over.
    You all know that is how it is.

  17. Poroti

    Indeed. That to me is second reason, after my fundamental problem with killing people.

    And there are new cases in the US every day.

    But remember it was WA where a Tory state Minister said during one of the periodic revivals of the capital punishment debate that he would rather be hanged than spend 20 years in jail for a crime he didn’t commit.

  18. He would be a great” mate” for Alan Jones…in more ways than one too

    by deblonay on Jan 18, 2015 at 3:32 pm

    Isn’t he a bit old for Alan?

  20. poroti

    Well we all know now who John Michael votes for – what a moron.

    Wonder if he sought Abbott’s opinion on gay marriage?

  22. Pretty sure ciggie discounting is a national thing Raaraa.
    The ciggie companies get away with it as it’s classified as “business to business marketing”, which is legal.Ie the manufacturer pays a discount to the retailer, who then passes it on to the consumer.
    I can see the day when cigarettes are only available on prescription, which would be somewhat ironic.

  24. 16.As far as illegal drugs are concerned, the poor kids in state school get the juvenile court records, the private school rich kids get a skiing holiday in the Swiss Alps till Daddy can smooth it over.

    ditto the executioner’s bullet.

    Same the world over.
    You all know that is how it is.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jan 18, 2015 at 3:36 pm

    Cambodia is a classic case, kill someone, offer compensation, if the family accepts, end of story.

  27. rossmcg

    [That to me is second reason, after my fundamental problem with killing people.]

    True , that comes in front of my reason. When I read of the US cases they are so often found innocent by the discovery of evidence through what can only be called luck. Which means goodness knows how many others were not so “lucky” . Just coming to the attention of the innocence projects is lucky in itself let alone still finding evidence after so many years.

  30. Poroti…that is typical of Howson…but like all his ilk he is worried sick about Abbott’s decline and fall…and he even accuses McCallumm of conspiracy to defame Abbott …wild stuff

  32. raaraa

    [Raaraa
    Posted Sunday, January 18, 2015 at 2:18 pm | Permalink

    ESJ

    William have you ever thought of commissioning your own national or Crikey poll?]

    Yep. Living in la-la ground.

  35. MTBW

    I would expect he has thought of that. Its a reason that many do not have such an age gap.

    They seem happy and in love and that at the end of the day is what counts.

  36. [Has echoes of Oscar and Bosie doesn’t it (Stephen Fry and his much younger husband).]

    Gay or straight, most men seem to want someone half their age in their bed.

  41. Gay or straight, most men seem to want someone half their age in their bed.

    by confessions on Jan 18, 2015 at 4:03 pm

    Or,

    Gay or straight, many men and woman seem to want someone twice their age in their bed.

  45. Among its other crimes, the Abbott government has cut funding for women’s shelters and the homeless.

    [In 2008, the Rudd government committed to a joint federal-state initiative to halve, by 2020, the proportion of the population said to be homeless. About $1.1 billion was allocated over five years, including $210 million for efforts in Victoria. In May, the state government extended funding by allocating $124 million over four years. The Abbott government, though, has been cutting funding for homeless initiatives. Last month, it deleted $21 million of grants that would have flowed to organisations in the homeless sector over the next four years. This is inexcusable. Cutting funding to aid the homeless only ensures that people remain locked in the welfare cycle.]

    What gobbledegook.
    [A hotel near Enterprize Park complained that “the mere concept of seeing homeless people in this location opposite our business and in clear view is very much inappropriate, as it undermines the guest experience and our investment in the building”. ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/cant-stand-the-view-swap-places-20150115-12r7mu.html

  47. My late husband was older than me. I did nurse him to his death. It is personal decision, and not appropriate for others to judge. I always felt a bit of an outsider because my marriage was not conventional as far as age gaps were concerned. In the end I decided anyone who had a problem could go get up close and personal with a pineapple.

  48. Poroti @190:

    The Merkel Government is whistling in the dark when they say that Greece isn’t necessary for the Euro.

    By itself – no, Greece isn’t needed on its own. But if Greece exits rather than face (more) punishment as the price for staying in the Eurozone, other Southern European countries will be sorely tempted to follow suit.

  50. The hotel could always offer the homeless the use of its unbooked rooms. Then the view would not be blemished.

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