BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Better late than never, BludgerTrack makes its return for 2015.

The mad scramble to catch up on the surprisingly early Queensland election has left BludgerTrack unattended to, despite the publication last week of the first polls of the year on voting intention from Essential Research and Roy Morgan, together with a bonus Morgan phone poll on leadership ratings (supplemented by these findings on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, which find Tony Abbott is now in third place behind Julie Bishop as well as Malcolm Turnbull). My normal practice of updating this overnight on Wednesday/Thursday will resume henceforth.

The latest reading records a pretty solid shift to the Coalition since the last result in mid-December. In comparison with the in-depth state-level reading I put together after The Australian published Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns at the end of the year, the Coalition is up two seats in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and Queensland. But if you want to hold off for polling not conducted during the summer break before taking the results too seriously, I won’t judge you.

Closely inspect the scatterplot on the sidebar (located lower down than usual thanks to the Queensland election poll tracker) and you will observe the disparity between the results from Essential Research and Roy Morgan, the latter of which appears twice as I break it down into two separate results to reflect the fact that it is conducted over two weekends. As you can see, the trendline seeks to split the difference between the two sets of results, and considers last year’s polling to be old news. The two pollsters’ headline two-party figures were in fact much the same, but came out very differently once the meaty bias adjustment to the notoriously pro-Labor Morgan series was applied. Similar caveats should be applied to the Greens vote, which is now in single figures for the first time since who knows when. This may well be accurate for all I know, but the wisest course would be to consider the jury out for the time being.

The leadership ratings are arguably a bit more interesting, since they encompass a result from Roy Morgan’s low-sample but otherwise high quality phone polling, together with the monthly reading from Essential Research. Both leaders are found to be up quite substantially on net approval, consistent with the notion that the summer break tends to soften the public mood. Bill Shorten had remarkably static ratings throughout 2014, outside of a bump in his favour following the budget, but on the current reading at least he’s moved into the black. Tony Abbott has also moved in a positive direction for the first time since Coalition polling started heading south again in October. On preferred prime minister though, the leaders’ gains cancel out, leaving Shorten’s lead much as it was before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,106 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. Barney in Saigon @ 840

    You’re right, its very sad. But in some ways its better to have Black Panthers attempting to protect black people in the US and other minorities (especially considering they were once a bit of a black supremacist organisation) than to have situations that lead to riots like the ones that followed Micheal Brown’s death, Rodney King’s beating and lack of justice or the ones in London 4 years ago, the Palm Island, Redfern or even (to a point) Macquarie Fields riots.

    [Having grown up in a place with no need or desire to have any association with weapons I cannot understand the way many Americans feel about this issue.

    Why is it that many Americans seem to think the use of force or the threat of it is an appropriate way to solve problems?]

    Its tempting to say “cos they’re idiots’.

    Its deeper than that tho – part of the culture of land theft and extreme individualism. The Immortal Technique song “Land of the Gun” attempts to explore the issue a bit. Guns and Gold = power in the US.

  2. [poroti
    Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2015 at 1:33 pm | PERMALINK
    What a bunch of shonks. They are NOT selling Qld state assets merely flogging them on 99 year leases and now we find……

    The LNP still cannot rule out that Queenslanders will have to buy back the state’s asset infrastructure at the end of their lease,

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-state-might-have-to-buy-back-assets-20150119-12tlrm.html ]

    Now that people will live to 150 (as per Joe Hockey), the LNP should be going for 151 year leases. A lease of only 99 years would have lots of electors remembering what the LNP did in 2015 and they would face a torrid time at the election in 2114. Far better to have the leases expire after all people who remember 2015 have expired!

  3. [In this county, you only need about 5% to switch sides and you can have pretty much any public policy you want.]

    That’s assuming those who supported you previously continue supporting you as you chase the 5%. For you to gain a nett 5% increase on any one issue it would need to be something that affects all of us (e.g. Workchoices) not, as an example, asylum seekers which as an issue which may lose more votes than it gains; I can’t see Greens voters crossing to Labor on that issue no matter how far Labor bends to accommodate them. I’m sure though that Labor would lose votes to the LNP if it was seen to accommodate Green type policy on this issue.

  4. [Textbook false analogy. North Korea is a dictatorship. Malaysia is a democracy, of sorts.]

    Time to throw out your textbook.

    Malaysia is a democracy in name only.

    Malappointment is rife. The ruling party won government with a lower overall % to the opposition alliance. Psephologists say the government could still win with like 30+% of the votes.

    Ghost voters are a thing. Overseas (non-citizen) students were paid money to vote for certain parties.

  5. Nicholas,

    I’m not sure how you justify the Greens not reaching for the best policy available at that time, and seeking to incrementally improve it later.

    I prefer quick, fair onshore processing to any other solution – but it wasn’t on the table at that time. The only way to get it on the table was by showing that these people aren’t what they’re stereotyped as, and the only way to do that was make sure there were more around.

    And the quickest, best road to that was the Malaysia Solution, with extra safeguards for the refugees’ treatment while they’re in Malaysia.

  6. [The only way to get it on the table was by showing that these people aren’t what they’re stereotyped as, and the only way to do that was make sure there were more around.]

    I think this is naive.

  7. Itep,

    Given that the large majority of Australians currently support ever-harsher treatment of asylum seekers, based largely on misinformation about who they are and what kind of people they are, how would you go about improving the situation?

    Remember: Right now, onshore processing is a suicidal policy for any party that wants to form Government – too many Australians oppose it, too strongly.

  8. [Raaraa

    Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2015 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    Textbook false analogy. North Korea is a dictatorship. Malaysia is a democracy, of sorts.

    Time to throw out your textbook.

    Malaysia is a democracy in name only.

    Malappointment is rife. The ruling party won government with a lower overall % to the opposition alliance. Psephologists say the government could still win with like 30+% of the votes.

    Ghost voters are a thing. Overseas (non-citizen) students were paid money to vote for certain parties.]

    And in the UK, Labor could win in 12 weeks time with about 34% of the voting electorate (probably about 20% to 25% of the population). Does this mean that UK is not a democracy?

  9. [According to the government, Australia already has effective protections in place for the thresher and hammerhead sharks. But the Humane Society International said the move was an “unprecedented act of domestic and international environmental vandalism”.

    “This sends a very bad signal that Australia doesn’t care about these species,” Alexia Wellbelove, senior program manager at HSI, told Guardian Australia. “Australia seems to think other countries can cooperate on this but we will do nothing in our own waters. As far as we know, this has never happened before.”

    Wellbelove said the opt-out was to appease commercial and recreational fishers, some of whom catch threshers and hammerhead sharks as primary catch or as bycatch for other species. She said HSI was exploring its legal options over the matter.

    “This is a political decision, it has nothing to do with conservation, which is pretty pathetic really,” she said. “Australia has always spoken out against other countries making reservations under these kinds of treaties, so this move is really concerning.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/20/australian-government-seeks-to-opt-out-of-protection-of-five-shark-species

  10. Matt

    The only thing that combats misinformation is the truth.

    Remember there are already asylum seekers in this country from the Vietnamese Boat people onwards. So having more asylum seekers who have become refugee settlers will not change this misinformation.

    Just a robust party willing to battle the misinformation will. Just like the climate change debate. Having the truth available means you have a better chance of winning and in the long term should.
    However in the short term the disinformation can rule

  11. [Given that the large majority of Australians currently support ever-harsher treatment of asylum seekers, based largely on misinformation about who they are and what kind of people they are]

    Given this so-called ‘large-minority’ have based their views in the past ‘largely on misinformation’, what makes you think they’re likely to change in the future?

    [Remember: Right now, onshore processing is a suicidal policy for any party that wants to form Government – too many Australians oppose it, too strongly.]

    Well that is a shame, but is a problem for the ALP/Coalition, those advocating offshore processing and engaging on an endless race to the bottom, to sort out amongst themselves. Ultimately those parties will have to justify their inhumane and costly approaches to a political problem.

    The Greens do not have to be involved in the race to the bottom and it’s great for the rational to have someone to vote for.

  12. There is something I think Labor and the Greens can agree on.

    Off or on shore processing is taking way too long and turns a short period of detention for the safety of the community into a an open ended prison sentence.

    This has blown out as the government department has been thinking of ways to reject AS claims as fraud and not genuine as a default.

    The whole documents argument comes to mind. Instead we could have most cases processed quickly papers or no papers as genuine and then that very small minority in question put into detention on shore as there would be the space available as there would be so many less.

  13. Guytaur I think you are right.

    But surely even a large number of conservatives would agree based on the impact to the bottom line?

  14. [ imacca – Please, please will someone ask this idiot why we don’t need “price signals” to combat climate change.

    So easy – climate change isn’t real! ]

    Well, if JoHo was asked that i’m sure his first response would be to look grumpy, start sweating a bit and declare he is here to talk about health and the budget not a Carbon Tax and how much better of we are without the Carbon Tax that those vandals in the previous Govt introduced and that if the ALP were elected they will bring in a Carbon Tax and we will all be rooooooooned!

    And if it was asked of Abbott he may well just go into shuddering brain-lock. 🙁

  15. Guytaur @1063:

    Things have changed quite a bit since the 1980s, actually. Anti-Asian racism was rife then, and is much less so today.

    Why?

    Because people interact with Asians now, on a day-to-day basis. They can see that Vietnamese, or Chinese, or Japanese, etc. etc. aren’t Fu Manchu. Exposure to who and what these demonized people really were changed attitudes.

    As it was for Asians, so should it be for Middle Easterners. The only way to counter the lies is with the truth, which is why I supported the Malaysia Solution – it was exchanging pre-processing refugees with ready-to-settle refugees at a 1:5 ratio, meaning that many, many Australians would have started seeing who these people really are…and begin adjusting their attitudes to be more receptive.

  16. ltep @1062:

    Lies have formed these peoples’ attitudes – exposure to the truth will change them. And there’s only one way to do that. And the Malaysia Solution would have brought thousands of refugees here, straight into the community, helping everyone.

    Guytaur – Sorry, it was your 1061 I was replying to, not your 1063.

  17. [ Off or on shore processing is taking way too long and turns a short period of detention for the safety of the community into a an open ended prison sentence.

    This has blown out as the government department has been thinking of ways to reject AS claims as fraud and not genuine as a default. ]

    Yup, agreed.

    [ But surely even a large number of conservatives would agree based on the impact to the bottom line? ]

    Rationally yes your right, but this issue has been pumped up way beyond rationality in the Australian political landscape, primarily by the Libs to appeal to frightened oldies and bogan xenophobes. Trying to come back from that in a politically practical sense is very hard. 🙁

  18. Guytaur @1063:

    Absolutely. I don’t understand why AS are denied the presumption of innocence routinely extended to others.

    Then I look at anti-bikie and anti-drug laws, and realize that our “justice” system is very deeply broken, indeed.

  19. Reports from Manus Island mentioned that about 40 AS from the camp were taken “to various regional jails” in PNG. Will this be the method of keeping what happened there quiet , disappear them into the PNG “justice” system ?

  20. [Matt
    Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2015 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar @1014:

    A governing party changing its governance in response to fears of defeat at the ballot box is just fine. When it starts muzzling the press and/or jailing likely opponents (as you’ve just acknowledged the UMNO does), that crosses the line into “not-democracy”.]

    It is all a matter of degree.

    Australian governments muzzle the press.
    Various opponents get, if not jailed, harrassed out of states like Tasmania complete with death threats. Just ask Jules about hid Dad. Not the first and not the last.
    Climate scientists are threatened with the noose and with the sack.
    Other opponents are not let into the country.
    Holocaust Deniers are jailed.
    You get jailed for contempt of court.
    There are suppression orders
    ur defamation laws are some of the harshest in the world. 18C significantly restricts the range of what you can and cannot say.
    The Abbott Government has inflicted, under cover of terrorist suppression laws, harsh penalties, including jail for journalists and anyone else, including politicians, who break these – even it is for the purpose of public policiy dialogue and holding the government accountable.
    Journalistic access is religiously restricted.
    FOI laws are a joke.
    Leaks are made to the favoured.
    Public service leaks are pursued with single-minded ferocity.
    Commercial-in-confidence is used to mask political corruption.
    That lass who spilled the beans on the PM’s daughter copping the equivalent of a very large bribe could have gone to jail for her troubles.

    As noted above, democracy is a relative, not absolute thing. Malayasia is a democracy, of sorts. So is Australia, of sorts.

  21. Boerwar….when have I ever claimed Australia to be a democracy? We need a serious housecleaning, including a codified Bill of Rights with some enforcement teeth.

  22. [Prime Minister Tony Abbott has denied he made a “captain’s call” on the proposed cut to the Medicare rebate for short GP consultations, but he says there was a “vigorous” discussion within Cabinet about the policy.

    ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-20/shelving-medicare-rebate-cut-not-captains-call-abbott/6028376

    If Abbott is indeed the captain of Team Australia, why does he blame the team members for this debacle instead of accepting responsibility as any captain should?

  23. Matt

    Part of Western Sydney. arab descent people just as prevalent as asian descended people.

    I am sure its the same in Melbourne.

    So saying arab people less accepted than asian because of invisibility has to be wrong.

  24. Matt

    [
    Things have changed quite a bit since the 1980s, actually. Anti-Asian racism was rife then, and is much less so today.]
    It was rampant in W.A. . As many noted at the time the claims about them were the same as those made about the Greeks and Italians a generation before. Crime gangs , form ghettos , don’t learn the language, will never integrate blah blah blah.

  25. Matt

    [
    Things have changed quite a bit since the 1980s, actually. Anti-Asian racism was rife then, and is much less so today.]
    It was rampant in W.A. . As many noted at the time the claims about them were the same as those made about the Greeks and Italians a generation before. Crime gangs , form ghettos , don’t learn the language, will never integrate blah blah blah.

  26. [ltep

    The Greens do not have to be involved in the race to the bottom and it’s great for the rational to have someone to vote for.]

    The only difference between Pontius Pilate and the Greens is that Pontius Pilate:

    (a) knew what he was doing
    (b) could have done something had he wished so to do.

    The Greens do do two things extremely well:
    (a) pointlessness in action
    (b) fingerpointing in inaction.

  27. Muir is only a newbie, but he is on the money with the comment below – again something the media should be asking and not only on Uni fees –

    [ Ricky Muir unlikely to support flagship higher education changes

    Crossbench senator rejects government’s uni deregulation proposals as they stand, saying ‘it is curious such big changes were not taken to an election’ ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/20/ricky-muir-unlikely-to-support-flagship-higher-education-changes

  28. From citizen’s link:

    (1) Prime Minister Tony Abbott has denied he made a “captain’s call” on the proposed cut to the Medicare rebate for short GP consultations

    (2) …says there was a “vigorous” discussion within Cabinet about the policy.

    (3) BUT …Joe Hockey and the health minister at the time, Peter Dutton, were opposed to the rebate cut when it was first announced in December

    (4) …but were overruled by the Prime Minister.

    (5) …Prime Minister Tony Abbott has denied he made a “captain’s call”

    (6)… and says, there was a “vigorous” discussion within Cabinet about the policy.

    (7)’…and this certainly was a unanimous decision’

    (8) He added it was “not true” to suggest that he had a heated argument with Mr Hockey and Mr Dutton.

    (9) “If you propose something, if you find that it’s causing a problem, you take it off the table – you consult and you fix it.

    Note the staggering series of inconsistencies and just plain bullshit in the above.

    It was not a ‘proposal’ it was actual changes to the schedule.

    That Abbott! Still lying through his teeth.

    “And that’s exactly what we’ll be doing.”

  29. [Matt
    Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2015 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar….when have I ever claimed Australia to be a democracy? We need a serious housecleaning, including a codified Bill of Rights with some enforcement teeth.]

    I call Australia a democracy, of sorts.

    As for a Bill of Rights, the very last thing we need in Australia is another lawyers picic.

  30. Boerwar,

    I must disagree. A clearly-laid-out Bill of Rights, explicitly defining the rights Australian citizens may expect as a matter of course (and as a minimum standard) will actually reduce the lawyering, not increase it.

  31. Dave @1089:

    Muir’s called it exactly right, at least this time. If you want to make a big change, take it to an election or make a case that it’s an emergency. A real emergency, I mean, not some ginned-up bullshit like the “budget emergency”.

  32. [lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2015 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    According to the government, Australia already has effective protections in place for the thresher and hammerhead sharks. But the Humane Society International said the move was an “unprecedented act of domestic and international environmental vandalism”.

    “This sends a very bad signal that Australia doesn’t care about these species,” Alexia Wellbelove, senior program manager at HSI, told Guardian Australia. “Australia seems to think other countries can cooperate on this but we will do nothing in our own waters. As far as we know, this has never happened before.”]

    Just remember this, and all the other real, important differences, the next time some Greens tells you that there is no difference between the Coalition and Labor and that the only Party worth voting for is the Greens – who specialize in not being able to do anything about anything.

  33. Matt

    [Boerwar,

    I must disagree. A clearly-laid-out Bill of Rights, explicitly defining the rights Australian citizens may expect as a matter of course (and as a minimum standard) will actually reduce the lawyering, not increase it.]

    So, take me to court.

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