BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.

Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.

A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 34
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  1. [Brandis – Manis had no formal links to IS]

    Manis was a fantasist. He was a publicity-seeking nobody and serial pest. His IS claims (however spurious) gained him notoriety.

  2. Average weekly actual hours worked
    Total
    Persons in Employment (All categories)

    Quarter 2, 2014 33.3 hours
    Quarter 2, 2013 33.6 hours
    Quarter 2, 2012 33.8 hours
    Quarter 2, 2011 33.9 hours
    Quarter 2, 2010 33.8 hours
    Quarter 2, 2009 34.0 hours
    …
    Quarter 2, 1984 35.6 hours

    http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6291.0.55.003Nov%202014?OpenDocument

    Total weekly hours worked, expressed quarterly/per worker continue to fall and are now the equal-lowest (with Q1 2014) since records commenced in 1984.

    This is a fundamental problem for households. Available work is declining, the growth rate in nominal wages is the lowest on record and the currency fall will push up the price of imports. (There is already some suggestion in recent import data that higher import prices are depressing demand for imports, even though oil-related prices are also falling very quickly.)

    Real per capita disposable income is in trouble. No wonder people want to get rid of the Abbott Government, who are adopting policies that undermine incomes rather than offer ways to increase them.

  3. Big Ship

    [If Hillary Clinto runs, she will win the Democratic nomination virtually without opposition, and the subsequent Presidential Election could be a landslide, given the much larger proportion of women voting in US elections than men.]

    With the current polarisation of the US electorate, the best that Hillary could hope for is to carry the same states Obama won in 2008, plus one or two more at a pinch (like Missouri).

    Obama 2008 was a high watermark for the Democrats in electoral college terms. There are many states the Dems can never win, and the same is true for the GOP. The Reagan-style landslides of the past are long gone.

  5. So far as I am concerned, being attacked by hadley et al is a badge of honour.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ray-hadley-attacks-tony-abbotts-response-to-martin-place-siege-during-fiery-interview-20141217-129kfr.html

    however, the fact they are attacking their man is very significant. These loons hate government so much they will eat their own if they form government. This is Tea Party stuff fueled by murdoch media and other anti-government mega-wealthy people – the objective is to make the disempowered poor to see government as the enemy rather than their potential means to a more equitable society. The only thing that can civilise capital is government, and murdoch doesn’t want to share power and wealth with anybody. I was always struck when living in the states how people who would benefit from universal health care and better welfare were often strongly against it because it was ‘socialist’ – telling an US citizen that our health and education systems were better than theirs for the majority of people, or to let then know that our systems worked better for a greater proportion of the community, would really get them riled. If I really wanted to upset them I’d talk doctor:patient and teacher:student ratios in cuba vrs the US.

  9. k 203 – yes the electoral map now favours the Democrats with California “locked in” since 1992

    The Democrats have beaten the Republicans on the popular vote in 5/6 last elections, and their effective Electoral College vote has been

    370-379-267-251-365-332

    With 270 the magic number to win, the Democrats start off with a bigger “base” of safe states, and I think they will win, but with 350-370 college votes at most.

  10. [194
    Steve777

    Re Confessions @164: because right wingers want us to be fearful of and angry towards ‘the other’. It increases the share of the vote for political parties that promote their world view.]

    The right think that political division will work for them. However, history suggests this is not so. Voices the speak for a common understanding and destiny will always win out in the end in this country. The alternative is a pathway to despair. This is obvious to just about anyone that spends even a few seconds to think about it.

  12. sf 204 – the Republican miracle has been to get people to vote against their own self-interest! So some republican holdout states are missing out on Obamacare funding that would help their generally poorer constituents – all in the name of opposing “Socialism”

    I found this in the New York Times – another example of the absurdity of their health system and the way various “middlemen” gouge the system. The procedure described I believe in Australia cost a few hundred dollars, but in the USA the charges average a few thousand, up to $11,000.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/health/the-odd-math-of-medical-tests-one-echocardiogram-two-prices-both-high.html?_r=0

  13. BW

    [shellbell
    I appreciated the posts in which you responded to being out and about that place.
    It was a more real thing for me than the thousands of MSM hours of professional emoting.]

    My daughter and her little choir coincidentally are singing on the corner of Martin Place and Castlereagh street tonight which is good

  16. RR

    [yes the electoral map now favours the Democrats with California “locked in” since 1992]

    Yes, over the past 10 to 15 years, several US states have moved from being solid GOP to being swing states or even leaning Democrat: Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, N. Carolina. The Dems can thank demographic shifts in these states (influx of Latino and/or younger and more educated voters).

    So the electoral map has tilted left – at least in presidential elections (midterms are whole other ballgame).

    Nonetheless, I think Hillary will be lucky to pick up all the states Obama won in 2008. Indiana was a surprise; and Ohio was due to Obama’s auto bailouts during the GFC. Both are fairly reliable red states that will be tough for Hillary to win. If she can replicate Obama 2012, that’s all she needs.

  17. [Sandi Logan @SandiHLogan · 30m 30 minutes ago
    If true I hear Wendy Southern, Mark Cormack (& already Liz Cosson) — three deputy secretaries at @DIBPAustralia — have walked. More 2 folo]

    Something to watch perhaps.

  18. Bernard Keane on the feral reaction to #Illridwithyou by sections of the Right:

    [“There’s no obvious reason why the Right, and mainly old white conservative males, might feel so threatened by #illridewithyou. Indeed, it’s exactly the sort of grassroots community action they normally support: Australians responding to a social problem without the need for the kind of government regulation or intervention they like to decry. Is it because they’d prefer the message of the Sydney siege to be about fear, not hope? It’s as if someone has taken terrorism and national security off them and used it for something unifying, rather than divisive, and it infuriates them.”]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/?p=473465#comment

  19. Bernard Keane (via Steve777)

    [ It’s as if someone has taken terrorism and national security off them and used it for something unifying, rather than divisive, and it infuriates them.”]

    Yep, he’s nailed it.

  20. Perhaps I missed it but there doesn’t seem to have been a joint media conference involving Baird and Abbott.

    This is despite Abbott’s inquiry covering some State issues including granting of bail.

    There is of course a good reason why Baird would not want to be seen in the company of Abbott (just ask Napthine).

    Abbott going off half cocked on his political crusade is likely to cause ructions with NSW.

  21. [Indeed, it’s exactly the sort of grassroots community action they normally support: Australians responding to a social problem without the need for the kind of government regulation or intervention they like to decry.]

    Exactly! That’s why I’ve found their reactions so puzzling and hypocritical.

  23. I think this is the worst lead up to Christmas in politics in my lifetime.

    The news that has made Abbott and his government colleagues keeps rolling in.

    So far today I think its the Doctors attack on a policy and Albanese linking Abbott to nassive incompetence at best over the Feds part in the East West link.

    With the bonus of one of the right wing megaphones giving Abbott a D –

  24. [221
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, December 18, 2014 at 2:27 pm | PERMALINK
    Indeed, it’s exactly the sort of grassroots community action they normally support: Australians responding to a social problem without the need for the kind of government regulation or intervention they like to decry.

    Exactly! That’s why I’ve found their reactions so puzzling and hypocritical.]

    The ratbags of the right know what is good for the community. Unfortunately In this case, the community knows a lot better what is good for the community.

  25. From the Grauniad something to remember.
    [
    Pakistan attack reveals the truth about terrorism: it kills more poor Muslims than rich westerners

    In 2013, 12 people died in terrorist attacks in the west compared to 22,000 in non-western countries. How can poor Muslims escape the scourge of Islamist extremism?]
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/18/pakistan-attack-reveals-the-truth-about-terrorism-it-kills-more-poor-muslims-than-rich-westerners

  26. confessions

    [Exactly! That’s why I’ve found their reactions so puzzling and hypocritical.]

    IMHO, their actions are hypocritical, but not puzzling. Many old white conservative males use social cohesion as a force for assimilation more so than genuine inclusion.

  31. It’s as if someone has taken terrorism and national security off them and used it for something unifying, rather than divisive, and it infuriates them.”

    Yep, he’s nailed it.

    and now they are sulking and stamping their feet that it was a terrorist act even though the Govt through Brandis have there was no link to IS.

    They seem determined to have him marked as a terrorist to enable groups like IS to hold him up as a martyr.

    It would be better to see him condemned as a criminal and no martyr status

  32. Steve777

    That’s a good take at it. If you can move a social cause to help one another without government intervention, that’s only a good thing right?

  34. poroti @225

    Something DF conveniently ignores. Muslims killing Muslims. He seems to be more than happy to take the numbers of Christians killing Christians as part of the numbers of Christians being persecuted.

  37. Chris Kenny ‏@chriskkenny 10m10 minutes ago
    When I suggested #illridewithyou targeted an imaginary backlash I had no idea quite how imaginary the whole thing was…]

    Is this Kenny’s way of saying he is thankful that we didn’t see an anti-muslim payback take hold because #illridewithyou tapped people’s better natures?

  38. Abbott can really spend our money on dodgy projects. After Melbourne’s E-W link, now it’s Sydney’s turn:

    [THE controversial WestConnex motorway project has been dealt a blow with a scathing report finding a conflict of interest in the NSW government’s plan.

    THERE is not enough independence between the agencies delivering and reviewing the project, an audit has found.

    “The commissioner, deliverer and assurer roles should be clearly separated on WestConnex … there were deficiencies in governance and independent assurance,” according to a NSW auditor-general’s report released on Thursday.]

    (News.com.au breaking news)

  39. Way up thread:

    [William

    Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%

    Bludgertrack peaked in May with 55-45

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/29/bludgertrack-55-0-45-0-to-labor/

    So I guess this current result would change if the next poll results show a closer 2PP?]

    Yes. This is why I refer to “the current output of the model”. Readers may recall that about two months ago, “the current output of the model” had Labor and Coalition dead level. But the trend chart doesn’t show that now. Every time a new result is added, the entire shape of the trendline changes. The current result produced by the model is often adjudged in the fullness of the time to have been an over-reaction to the most recent results.

  40. Abbott’s war on the poor continues. After dragging welfare into the ‘Sydney Siege’ he now has a go at legal aid.

    [TONY Abbott says it “infuriates” him that legal aid resources are being used to challenge laws, amid concern over funding for Man Haron Monis’ High Court challenge over offensive letters he wrote to the families of Australian soldiers killed overseas. ]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/tony-abbott-infuriated-over-funding-for-legal-challenges/story-fnqxbywy-1227160406165

  41. It’s so reassuring to have Joe Hockey on our side:

    [TREASURER Joe Hockey has rejected international calls to raise the GST to 15 per cent, saying there is already enough pressure on household budgets.]

    (Murdoch’s Oz)

  42. [Julie Bishop exposed again for her hypocrisy. Criticises Julia Gillard for glamour shots, poses herself!!! ]

    Julie wasn’t working on the PM’s job all those years ago. Circumstances change 🙂

  43. Few will disagree with Howard on this:

    [JOHN Howard, who introduced Australia’s restrictive gun regime in 1996, has savaged a libertarian senator’s call to unwind his landmark laws in response to the Sydney siege tragedy.

    Liberal Democratic Party senator David Leyonhjelm this morning claimed Mr Howard’s laws, enacted in response to the Port Arthur massacre, transformed “the entire population into a nation of victims”.]
    (Murdoch’s Oz)

  44. [ Julie Bishop exposed again for her hypocrisy. Criticises Julia Gillard for glamour shots, poses herself!!! ]

    Well – for someone who appears to being put forward as a future tory PM, maybe really soon, I would have thought the approach should have been to demonstrate administrative and celebral competence for such a role.

    Allowing herself to be seen as mutton dressed up as lamb or even an aging sex kitten, doesn’t seem to way to go.

    FFS what was she ever thinking. Or not.

  45. [ALP SA has been copping sh*t for ages over our desalination plant. Seems like we are about to need it, being on the end of the water chain. Maybe now all the winging naysayers will get the point……]

    people tend to forget that melbourne, adelaide and possibly sydney as well as many regional and rural towns could have run out of water had it not been for three one-in-one hundred year storm events within 2 years and massive floods in Vic, Qld and NSW at the end of the millennium drought. Average rainfall would not have refilled the dams – it took major storm events. In vic many regional water storages are beginning to look a tad empty. People forget that at current rates of population growth melbourne and sydney are set to double in size every 30-40 years, adding population equivalent to an extra bendigo to melbourne’s population each year. the desal plants will be seen as a good investment within a few years.

  46. Just talking to my next door neighbour who works in Home Care.

    He was just telling me that Home Care NSW is being privatised and all of those who are working there at present have got to undertake a course to retain their jobs.

    He is not a happy bunny and nor should he be.

    I am starting to get the feeling that everything is going to be privatised by these bloody Liberal Governments.

    The people they see are elderly often living on their own and get used to and comfortable with those who come to do their jobs around the house or lawn mowing and very often their shopping for them.

    We are all going to be privatised if this keeps going on.

  48. Will Pyne now reject this person’s input to his national curriculum review?

    [CONTROVERSIAL poetry professor Barry Spurr has resigned from his post at the University of Sydney.

    The university announced today that his resignation was accepted. No further comment was provided.

    Professor Spurr was suspended by the university in October after news website New Matilda published emails he sent from his university account in which he used inflammatory language including racist terms “Mussies”, “Abos” and “Chinky poos”. He also wrote in a demeaning way about women.]

    (Murdoch’s oz)

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