BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.

Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.

A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  1. Jackol 121

    You don’t think it compares just a tad unfavourably with Bob Hawke, who sobered himself up prior to and during his time as PM?

  2. [ Any influence that this issue will have in Florida in 2016 will be dwarfed by the ‘Hillary Effect,’ if she runs, which seems almost certain now. ]

    Obama’s ‘path to citizenship’ for undocumented Latinos generally will also help the Democrats.

  4. NathanA – I’m saying that I don’t see that Labor can gain anything by making a big deal out of it, and potentially could turn a bunch of people off by looking all holier-than-thou wowsery etc etc.

    And “our drunk was better than your drunk” doesn’t strike me as fruitful either.

  5. AA 145 the University have retrospectively reduced the points for each subject by 25%.

    That is terrible! And the worst thing is that students are in such a powerless position they just have to suck it up. It is essentially a breach of contract – the rules in place when they set out to do their degree should not be able to be changed like this.

    Maybe the administrators are pro-Pyneites now out for revenge?

  7. victoria@123

    Jackol

    I doubt Shorten or Labor will go Abbott for being a piss head. They will continue to concentrate on the main game. It has served them well to date

    Abbott reminds me of one of planes with a missile defense system. Throwing out stupidity, in great volumes, left and right. I think Shorten is doing a good job of ignoring all the small targets and focusing on the steady erosion of the Liberal Brand.

  8. [@BernardKeane: The fury of the Right that their terror toy has been taken away from them by #illridewithyou is palpable, isn’t it?]

    When governments demonstrate that they cant be trusted with an issue, the people take charge instead.

    Good news story.

  10. I doubt Shorten or Labor will go Abbott for being a piss head. They will continue to concentrate on the main game. It has served them well to date]

    A good time to throw it all back in abbott’s face is when they continue attacks on Labor for not helping them pass unfair budget measures in the senate.

  11. Rocket Rocket 155

    I think you’ll find plenty of University administrators with the motto “charge ’em more, teach ’em less” quite unrelated to their political leanings.

  12. And just a reminder of the sort of nasty deadshits we’re dealing with, and why they must be removed from office in 2016: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/karma-bus-comes-around-for-joe-hockey-20141215-1275l1.html#ixzz3LvnBYVfa

    [Slipping by with little notice, the government has not renewed funding for the Indigenous and Remote Eye Health Service (IRIS), a program that has co-ordinated the goodwill and hard work of ophthalmologists and optometrists to save and improve sight in the bush.
    Advertisement

    An initiative of the government and the Australian Society of Ophthalmologists in 2010, the four-year program cost a total of $5 million – about the same as the current renovations at the Lodge.]

    It was effective. It cost a mere $5m. And this shitstains have the hide to pretend they’re interested in ‘recognizing’ indigenous people.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/karma-bus-comes-around-for-joe-hockey-20141215-1275l1.html#ixzz3MCoG6UpU

  13. lefty e – 158 – I was just thinking the same. What makes them extra furious is that they can’t blame Labor or Fairfax or the ABC. In this modern “connected” world, individuals can make a difference by touching a common nerve. They didn’t complain about #putoutyourbats did they?

    wtr – 157 – Exactly. Focus. Let Abbott damage himself and just keep pushing a quiet sensible mantra emphasising “fairness”.

  15. poroti@86

    If anyone is in desperate need for an emetic………

    Something to put you off breakfast.

    Bishop’s stunning photo shoot

    FOREIGN Minister Julie Bishop has appeared in her most glamorous photograph yet, showing off her impressive figure and impeccable sense of style. ……….Ms Bishop used the shoot to deliver a serious message about the gender divide in Canberra: “I wish there were more women in Cabinet. I think women make a great contribution to discussions; they offer a different perspective.”


    http://www.perthnow.com.au/entertainment/books/julie-bishop-looks-stunning-in-who-magazine-shoot/story-fnhod202-1227160162662

    The dress is stunning. It is very elegant and makes for a good photo. How it flows when worn is the question.

    This dress IMO was chosen to hide Julie Bishop’s hard angular figure, the result of her extreme running and I assume dieting. The pose allows the dress to drape in soft flowing lines creating an illusion of soft curves. The high neckline and 2/4 length sleeves are good for concealing harsh angles at the neck and arms. Her pose is strange. She is leaning forwards and seems very unrelaxed. If she pulled her shoulders back a little and straightened her spine, just a fraction, she would look more at ease. I notice most times when she wears a dress it is the same sort of design, so it must the one that does the most for her.

    We all do that, and I do envy her that waist. However I am not willing to pay the price in exercise and diet* to achieve it. I like food too much.

    *(waiting for the bionic stomach that automatically extracts the right amounts of calories for the day and ejects the rest. 🙂 )

  16. [An initiative of the government and the Australian Society of Ophthalmologists in 2010, the four-year program cost a total of $5 million – about the same as the current renovations at the Lodge.]

    It’s not about cost, but that it was an initiative of the previous Labor govt. Just shows how palpable is this govt’s hatred for any of the good stuff Labor did. They need to eradicate it all.

  19. It’s a way of increasing the HECS debt.

    Pyne must be involved.

    I wait for this to happen elsewhere to see how widespread this retrospective change is.

  21. confessions 164 – deep down they just hold the people of Australia in contempt. That is my “root causes analysis”. They do all they can to try and mould Australians into their narrow view of how we should be, and then despise us because we break out of the mould.

    If you read all their bile with this in mind, you can read between the lines and see the utter contempt they hold for the “average Australian” when that person doen’t agree with them.

  25. [I think you’ll find plenty of University administrators with the motto “charge ‘em more, teach ‘em less” quite unrelated to their political leanings.]

    That’s the strangest thing about this. If they reduce the number of points per class, they have to teach more classes…

    I didn’t think changes could be retrospective either.

  26. The presser by the AMA president earlier was sobering. The changes being made by the govt are quite dramatic. This idea by the govt of only a 5 dollar co payment is deceitful

  27. RR:

    They love to deride those who disagree with them as ‘elitists’, but as you’ve inferred, it’s them who are the true elitists.

  28. In other news – I am stunned that the Coroner has come to this conclusion in the Maureen Braddy/Allan Whyte case.

    http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/story/2772799/coroner-says-lack-of-evidence-to-charge/?cs=80

    I at least expected that they would recommend investigating the old well at the Braddys’ house – which Maureen’s father filled with concrete and built over shortly after the disppearence of his daughter and her boyfriend.

    There are surely modern techniques (?ground penetrating radar) that could help?

  29. [so the pictures in the “Daily Telegraph” of the five muslim women laying bouquets in Martin Place and being hugged by strangers will be sending Albrechtsen, Kenny et al apoplectic!]

    LOL.

  30. I certainly don’t want a PM with a grog problem, especially one who already clearly has trouble controlling his aggression and cognition at the best of times, and I am pretty sure most of the country feels the same way.

  31. dave @ 152
    [Obama’s ‘path to citizenship’ for undocumented Latinos generally will also help the Democrats.]

    Indeed.

    The coalition of Latinos, Blacks, younger people and the majority of women virtually ensures a Democratic victory in 2016, let alone the woeful roster of candidates that the Republicans will have to chose from to run against Clinton.

    The primary process for the Republicans forces the candidates to lurch to the hard right to win the nomination, then they will have to spend the rest of the Presidential campaign trying to walk back the ‘tea party’ rhetoric and policy stances they espoused, all in order to win over Independents, and those groups mentioned above in the General Election ….. and it can’t be done without publicly repudiating everything they have said, and looking like that which Americans despise – a so called ‘flip flopper.’

    Unless something like ill health, or cold feet intervene, Hillary Clinton will be the US President Elect in November 2016.

  33. #illridewithyou is a direct threat to the main stream medias control over information flow and public sentiment. It clearly shows that large sections of the population aren’t accepting the propaganda. It’s more insidious than the MarchinMarch and Occupy movements being accepted by main stream commuters

  35. Could the “Abbott grog monster” thing be a reason for a Bishop or Morrison leadership challenge? A ready made excuse to topple Abbott in a fashion that doesn’t allow comparison with Rudd/Gillard?

  36. Anthony Albanese has his say on east west link

    [The government documents released this week show that the Victorian government response to this evidence was to hide the analysis.

    In fact, one document conceded that if the analysis was handed to Infrastructure Australia it “may be used as a justification for not supporting the project’’.

    This was a backhanded compliment to the integrity of Infrastructure Australia under its respected former chairman, Rod Eddington.

    Dr Napthine knew the project would not meet Infrastructure Australia’s standards in terms of delivering value for public money, so he hid the analysis before ­attempting to cook the books to make the project look more ­attractive. Tony Abbott was complicit in this process.

    Just days before last year’s federal election, Mr Abbott told the National Press Club he would not contribute funding to any major infrastructure project without a proper cost-benefit analysis reviewed by the independent experts at Infrastructure Australia.]

    http://anthonyalbanese.com.au/opinion-piece-abbott-napthine-ignored-facts-on-east-west-fiasco

  38. [ Mr Abbott told the National Press Club he would not contribute funding to any major infrastructure project without a proper cost-benefit analysis reviewed by the independent experts at Infrastructure Australia.]

    Has this shown up in the lists of Abbott’s broken promises?

  40. victoria …I’m loathe to comment on the siege at all ..but surely a check of the NSWPolice register would have been a reasonable thing to do before briefing the PM..

  41. It is interesting the response from News Corp to #illridewithyou
    The tabloid Telegraph and news.com.au appear to be neutral (possibly supportive), the columnists in the Australiab feral
    I think to them it appears to be another front in the culture war

  42. markjs

    Posted Thursday, December 18, 2014 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

    AFP confirms it gave false information to PM re Gun Licence..

    False or erroneous.

    They are different. False implies deliberate, erroneous is an error

  44. Re Confessions @164: because right wingers want us to be fearful of and angry towards ‘the other’. It increases the share of the vote for political parties that promote their world view.

  45. [Could the “Abbott grog monster” thing be a reason for a Bishop or Morrison leadership challenge? A ready made excuse to topple Abbott in a fashion that doesn’t allow comparison with Rudd/Gillard?] Press gallery wouldn’t do it. If it is true, who knew? They will never admit it.

  46. [183
    billie

    #illridewithyou is a direct threat to the main stream medias control over information flow and public sentiment. It clearly shows that large sections of the population aren’t accepting the propaganda.]

    The spontaneous #illridewithyou response is very encouraging indeed, not least because it puts the MSM firmly in its place.

    🙂

  50. boomyi

    [If it is true, who knew? They will never admit it.]
    Abbott was a journo himself for a while. I dare say quite a few current senior journos went out a grog monstering with Abbott back In the day. He probably has a few tales to tell about them 🙂

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