BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.

Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.

A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  1. I’m thinking Michaelia Cash to Immigration and Border Protection, Morriscum to Treasurer and Sloppy dropped.

    Kelly oh Bigmouth to Health and Dutton also dropped with Poodle saved.

  2. If Tony just shuffles his existing team around, that means he still has faith in his “experienced old guard”. Real rebooting would be if he changed the pawns. Then we’d have another set of inexperienced ministers under a hopeless PM 🙂

  5. If Lord Buffering gets treasury, you can cut off my legs and call me shorty. Then the speculation about a Leadership coup would be endless.

  6. Joy at removal of Andrews from welfare (if confirmed) tempered by him being replaced by someone who might be just as bad and more effective at being so.

    David Speers @David_Speers

    David Johnston dropped from cabinet. Sussan Ley into cabinet. Frydenberg new Assistant Treasurer. #reshuffle

  8. Morrison to Welfare and social services??? Oh dear Lord!! Can’t be so…. seriously?? Has to be a joke.

    Bishop’s wings clipped perhaps?? Wouldn’t surprise me.

  10. [@samanthamaiden: Scott Morrison is taking on welfare reform in a social services – sources say #auspol Kevin into Defence]
    So as to let Morrison inflict his inner vicious on Australians and thereby destroy the electability of another potential Abbott replacement ?

  11. David Johnston dropped from cabinet. Sussan Ley into cabinet. Frydenberg new Assistant Treasurer. #reshuffle

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  12. [David Johnston dropped from cabinet. Sussan Ley into cabinet. Frydenberg new Assistant Treasurer. #reshuffle]

    As per all the leaks.

  14. Bevan Shields ‏@bevanshields85 · 4m4 minutes ago
    Christopher Pyne staying in education #auspol #reshuffle #cabinetreshuffle

  19. lizzie

    Posted Sunday, December 21, 2014 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    Be nice if Bronnie left the Speaker’s chair and took a real job.

    retirement would be a better option

  20. [Scott Morrison is taking on welfare reform in a social services]

    The disability sector needed that Xmas present like several holes in the head.

    🙁

  21. K17 – no:

    Turnbull’s epic personal vote is such that the Liberals have nothing to fear for as long as he is there to defend it. But the seat was looking increasingly marginal not so long ago, and should Turnbull decide to move on — as he briefly did after losing the leadership at the end of 2009, only to change his mind shortly afterwards — the Greens will have something to play for, particularly if the broader election result is a poor one for the Liberals.

    I’m not so sure myself – I think Turnbull has taken a big hit to his urbane wet Lib image and would have to be looking at a big swing against him at the next election – probably not enough to unseat him, but his “epic personal vote” will be mostly shredded I would think barring some major shift in his and the government’s fortunes.

  24. [David Speers @David_Speers · 5m 5 minutes ago
    Hearing Sussan Ley into Immigration, Andrews into Defence, Morrison into Social Services]

  26. Andrews had to go.

    The greater efficiency of contracting out to the private sector is a major, major shambles. They are working their way through something like 10,000+ bids.

    ALL peak NGO bodies from the states and territories and ACOSS have written to the Government, begging them to fix the shambles.

    The bidding process should have been finished in time for an orderly transfer of old and new contractors. This is not happening.

    The APS staff doing the job are falling apart, resigning, being sacked, whatever.

    Meanwhile, Andrews has got away with this scot free.

  29. Having fucked up SS, Andrews now has the task of at least emulating Johnston.

    At least Johnston knew the difference between a submarine and a canoe.

    FMD.

  33. Ley’s promotion makes sense.

    It is an unpleasant job and she will get to sweep Morrison’s leavings. Good fit.

    Not sure if Bishop will appreciate the femme dilution Ley’s promotion implies…

  34. [Not sure if Bishop will appreciate the femme dilution Ley’s promotion implies…]

    Well, if there’s even a hint of jealousy on JB’s part, she’s been putting on a brave face these past couple weeks.

  35. Morrisson to welfare? perfect gig for the caring Christian he portrayed himself as in his maiden speech and then put into practice in dealing with asylum seekers.

  36. lizzie

    Andrews is a very nice catholic boy who is a very nice catholic friend of the mad monk.

    He is rusted-on Abbott so is still there to protect Abbott’s back.

    Andrews was a complete failure as a minister in charge of a large and complex program administrative portfolio. No worthwhile policy initiative was achieved while Andrews was in the job.

    It must make sense to somebody that Andrews is getting to put his footprint over Australia’s security for the next few decades.

    As for the idea that he is fit to run a war…

  38. maybe sending Andrews to defence is a message. If you can manage this you can stay, if you can’t (and I would be amazed if he succeeded) then get out of the parliament as I have someone who wants your seat.

  41. It will be interesting to see whether Morrison is capable of doing a shift change.

    He was perfect for the part of perfect bastard. Nobody gave a rat’s what bastardry he practised on asylum seekers. He killed them. He held their kids hostage in negotiations. He monstered them if they got pregnant. And so on and so forth.

    How easy was all that for someone with Morrison’s sensibilities?

    But he may find that Aussies don’t like filthy bastards bastardising those whom they perceive as their own.

    Morrison may well be suprised by a bit of blowback.

  42. @2FBS: Cabinet members constantly hitting Refresh on @dailytelegraph site waiting for @samanthamaiden or @simonbenson to tell them their fate.

  45. [PatriciaKarvelas @PatsKarvelas · 28s 28 seconds ago
    And most women are going to have to keep banging on that Cabinet door for longer #auspol]

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