BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.

Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.

A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 26 of 34
1 25 26 27 34
  1. [The families package would be “focused on facilitating growth and helping people to cope with the pressures of work whilst at the same time raising a family. More flexible and affordable childcare, a fairer paid parental leave scheme, these things are going to help to drive greater workforce participation, which is absolutely essential given we have such an ageing demographic.”]

    I note that all the assistance to families listed above basically stops once children enter school (given that the need for childcare is considerably lessened once they’re in a classroom for several hours a day).

  2. Zoomster @ 1244: Your points are well taken. I’d only add that they hold also if too many representatives are drawn from the political “new one class”. Breadth of life experience can encourage empathy and sensitise a person to complexity. I was only thinking just now, having read the latest press commentary on the Liberal Democrat Senator’s views on guns, that his real problem is that he thinks all social problems are the same, and that they therefore call for the same solution.

  3. z 1250 – These people she is talking about obviously hadn’t noticed a few weeks before – the similarly touching tributes from Taliban-destabilised Pakistan. After Phil Hughes death there were some beautiful pictures of Pakistani children lighting candles at makeshift memorials, and Pakistani club cricketers lining up beside their pitch for a minutes silnce before their games.

  4. Just heard on radio new Liberal Opposition Health Shadow Minister Mary Wooldridge compalining about the new Ambulance Officers pay deal. She was saying that Labor has put various “secret” clauses in there, and that if that is the case and they were agreed before the election,

    then they should have informed the Victorian public before the election

    East West Link, anyone? Pot. Kettle. Black. !!!

  5. [ Mr Hockey admitted regret over the budget sales job.

    “We spent more time focusing on outcomes than we did on messaging, and I regret that,” he said.

    But he said it was “completely incorrect” to say the budget was unfair ]

    It is amazing really.

    He *STILL* doesn’t get it or just will not accept that most voters hold the opposite view or that he just doesn’t have the Senate votes to pass these measures over 6 months after announcing his budget.

    Who are we to interrupt him when he continues to make mistakes.

    Keep digging hockey. The deeper the better.

  6. dave

    “Messaging” still doesn’t mean conversation and consultation. It just means taxpayers’ money spent on persuasive advertising.

    Look at Dutton. One phone call was his idea of extensive consultation.

  7. Rocket,

    Poor Mary, is facing a long road in Opposition and already seems to have lost her way.

    Imagine those Labor people resolving in a couple of weeks a pay dispute that the Libs could not resolve in years.

    Clearly, Wooldridge believes it is far better politically to treat our front line emergency service workers with continuing contempt. Goodness knows why!

  8. lizzie

    They are in their own little world.

    Hockey also says in that article –

    [ The taxation discussion with the Australian people next year will not be about increasing the revenue take for the Commonwealth]

    …seems to suggest further cuts, in services and PS.

    FFS.

  9. “Messaging” is a weasel word invented by backroom Party strategists to whitewash the fact that they had to tell Joe, “He cocked up the Budget”.

    The fact that he needed such counselling to demonstrate his Budget failed every known test including fairness and the Pub, indicates a politician very much out of touch with the public.

  10. From today ‘s drop to Sam Maiden in the Daily TellMeCrap. What could it mean? Maybe the PM and Loghnane could meet and sort out who is the blabber…

    [The Prime Minister’s office was hosing down rampant speculation inside the Abbott Government yesterday of an internal blow-up in Mr Abbott’s office over the leak of the cabinet reshuffle.

    Senator Sinodinos revealed on Friday that he had agreed in private discussions on Tuesday with the Prime Minister and the Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane that he would stand aside on Tuesday.

    But he revealed that this decision was to be delayed until Friday and only announced on Sunday.

    On Thursday night, it was reported that Mr Abbott was planning to reshuffle his cabinet and resolve the limbo over the Assistant Treasurer’s role.

    Senator Sinodinos agreed that someone within the tight group of people that knew of his plans had “blabbed’’ and this was “did not assist the orderly working of government”.
    ]

    No link cause Murdoch

  11. More from the drop to Maiden. Murdoch certainly getting his contra for slavishly promoting the Abbott experiment

    [TONY Abbott has bowed to pressure to include more women in his cabinet elevating Childcare Minister Sussan Ley in a reshuffle that is likely to see Defence Minister David Johnston dumped.

    The Sunday Telegraph can reveal that Childcare Minister Sussan Ley will be elevated to cabinet in the shake up to be announced today.

    Ms Ley, who was won plaudits from the Prime Minister for her work in the portfolio and for her strong parliamentary performances, will become the second woman in cabinet.

    Previously, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop was the only woman in Tony Abbott’s 19-member cabinet.

    Facing criticism over the number of women in cabinet and the outer ministry, Mr Abbott conceded there was a number of talented women “knocking at the door’’.

    The reshuffle to be announced today will confirm that the Prime Minister has decided the time is ripe to let them in.

    The Prime Minister is also expected to elevate more women to the junior ministry and parliamentary secretary positions.

    The new Assistant Treasurer will be Josh Frydenberg, who replaces Arthur Sinodinos who agreed to stand aside temporarily from the job months ago pending an ICAC investigation.

    ]

    No link cause Murdoch

  12. [ Steve777
    Posted Saturday, December 20, 2014 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    I’m a market sceptic. We have this vast machine at the core of our economic life driven alternatively by fear and greed, ]

    Barry Ritholtz makes a timely observation –

    [ Once again, the markets prove that nobody knows nuthin’.

    As you read the many predictions for 2015, do you remember how many strategists were forecasting a collapse in crude oil prices at the start of the year? That’s right, precisely zero.

    Recall the beginning of 2014, when 72 out of 72 economists were anticipating higher rates and lower bond prices. How did that work out? ]

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/12/the-lessons-of-mr-market-philosopher-in-chief/

  13. The reshuffle not expected to be announced till this arvo.

    Still not clear if Scoot gets Defence. If so, be prepared for the most heinous politcisation of our men and women in uniform we have ever seen.

    Plus Scoot will want to somehow merge in AFP and the security agencies into his fiefdom. Expect high rotation media appearances to justify his promotion.

    And who gets Immigration? Either Susssan Ley (doubtful, she at least understands the ChildCare area which is where some of the aspirational vote is) or Michela Cash? Either way a woman it will be to offset Scoot’s heartless aggression.

  14. Morning all.

    Why on earth is the govt announcing a reshuffle now, when almost everyone is sick of hearing from them and just want to settle into their pre-festive season gig of winding down with family and friends and forgetting about the horrors of the past week?

    Go away government! Take a break and leave us alone.

  15. fess,

    Apparently, Josh Frydenburg gets his promotion because the Ministry needs more women and he promised to be whatever type of woman the Government needed.

  16. So we have two in (Ley, Frydenberg) and Sinodinos and I assume Johnson out.

    Seems as if it will be a very minor reshuffle

    Let us guess:
    Morrison goes to Defence and someone very weak or controlled by Morrison goes to Immigration.

  17. Morning all. Interested in the debate about “amateur” versus “professional” politicians, which I find rather biased, and framed to suit the latter. We can all think of good and bad examples of both. However as the system seems to be drifting towards more of the latter, and the incumbents are unlikely to change the system in a way that harms their own kind, I have a few comments.

    There is a fundamental attitudinal problem with the professional group. Having spent their working lives in political careers, they have a strong sense of entitlement, as though being a staffer “earnt” them the “right” to a safe seat, and then being a parliamentarian till retirement. Rubbish. Many have no other job skills, and so they fear losing their seat, compromising themselves and their electors to avoid it. When they are booted out, they seem to have a similar belief they are entitled to a sinecure on the public payroll somewhere, usually running some public service organisation, even though they have no content knowledge of it, and no skills managing anything bigger than a boy scout patrol. This self serving delusion is common in Labor and Liberal. Sometimes this backfires spectacularly, as for example with putting Mike Kaiser into an exec role in the NBN.

    There is a second and bigger danger. The professionals become more skilled at working the system for themselves as well as their parties. Increasingly we see old checks and balances watered down, jobs formerly seen as requiring skills being given to political apparatchiks, and the real prospect of corruption in Australian politics growing over time.

    Finally, can we please use the terms “full-timers” or “lifers” for these political machine men. They are not professional any more than a financial planner describes themselves as a professional. Where is the code of ethics? Entry standards? Qualifications? Penalties for misconduct? (this does not mean ICAC; real professions have internal policing of professional standards). By any credible definition, politicians are not professionals. Despite this, they still aspire to well above average incomes before, during and after their time warming benches.

    The obvious implication is that this career path does not attract the best and brightest, but increasingly the obsessive, the self-interested and the over-ambitious. If they looked back at their own CVs honestly, most would not be qualified for a middle management position in the public service. There are exceptions, but that is true in every field, and proves nothing about the overall situation. Will we see any more Gough Whitlams in parliament? I hope so, but fear not. We have started down the American path, and neither side seems interested in changing that course.

  18. Hopefully the reshuffle will demonstrate once again the unique political skills of the government and be received as well as all of their other major efforts.

    Pass the popcorn!

  19. Interested in this story about the WA catholic education doing some good educating refugee children in Christmas Island.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-20/school-changed-lives-of-asylum-seekers-on-christmas-island/5980986

    I think a major failing in immigration policy has been to spend less giving basic education and at least language skills to foreign immigrants, whether refugee or not, upon arrival. This greatly lessens their likelihood of successful integration into our society. One of my lecturers at uni arrive as a Vietnamese boat person in the 70s. After learning english he kept studying and finished up winning a university medal in economics. I wonder how many like him now wind up driving taxis till they retire? Have a good day all.

  20. ABC24 talking heads gushing with positives regarding Sinodinos’s wealth of experience and communication skills…

    Authur’s gross mismanagement of AWH seems to have been a non-existent fantasy.

  21. Soc

    I’m not necessarily in disagreement, but will mount a bit of a counter argument – despite the hype, not many people want to be politicians, and that severely limits the choices available.

    When the Liberal MP previous to Mirabella retired, there were about six contenders for preselection – for a dead safe Liberal seat, a ‘job for life’ – one of whom, Mirabella, was from outside of the electorate.

    There would have been more applications for a job as a local janitor.

    I’m also aware of seats being ‘given’ to people who were basically seen as unemployable as a sort of favour for a friend (e.g. the brother of a prominent MP landed a seat in Parliament after failing at everything else he’d tried).

    Politics doesn’t attract people as a career, alas, partly because of the way we stigmatise politicians. If we want better MPs, we need to change this.

    Often it’s precisely the sort of person we need in politics who won’t even contemplate it as a career.

  22. Further to 1273, what I did not explain well is that the danger of the second group is that they become too skilled at politics, ensuring the reelection of bad governments, to the detriment of the nation. NSW state Labor was a good recent example – good at elections, lousy at governing.

  23. So how will ‘wonder woman’ Mesma react to Johnston being boned ?

    They have been reported as close and Mesma as “strong” supporter of his. Is they also another slap in the face by Credlin.

    Mind you its difficult to mount an argument why Johnston should be sacked – or even why he got the job to start with.

    I see mesma’s latest self description –

    [ “I see myself as Australia’s relationship manager.” ]

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/julie-bishop-and-the-empathy-deficit-20141219-12ajf5.html

    Yeah right –

    Foreign Affairs Score Sheet* under Foreign Minister Bishop:

    Indonesia: bare pass.
    USA: fail.
    Russia: fail.
    China: bare pass.
    Japan: credit.
    EEU: fail.
    Iraq: war fail.
    Foreign aid: fail.

    * originally posted by BW.

  24. dave,

    Clearly, what Australia needs to make it’s mark in International Affairs is a clothes horse with a mesmerising stare.

    That’s the only test that counts.

  25. GG:

    Seriously though, what’s the benefit in announcing a reshuffle before the new year? I’d have thought it would be better to have the ministry take a break, return refreshed in the new year and then announce a new ministry.

  26. A couple of headlines from the wild west today should see our Emperor take a big hit.

    [WA Government facing $1.3 billion budget deficit in mid-year review]
    .
    .
    [PARENTS of children at WA’s Catholic schools will be forced to foot the cost of an $8 million shortfall after the Barnett Government reneged on a promise to fund Year 7 students at secondary school rates next year.]

  27. Socrates

    I agree totally.

    It is about connections!!!!! Ideally the ALP would have a swag of people broadly representing its voter base and a few drawn from the middle who appeal to swinging voters.

    There should be some (say 20%) ex public sector workers (nurses, teachers, public servants) and while I think having been involved with the relevant unions is good, ideally they will have come to union positions AFTER spending 10 years as teachers, nurses etc.

    There should be 10% from blue collar unions, again after working in these jobs for 10 years.

    There should be a goodly smattering of immigrants

    There should be 20% professionals of whom no more than half should be lawyers, the rest doctors, architects, accountants, scientists etc.

    There should be a group drawn form the small business sector and maybe even some farmers or ex farmers.

    Now one of the most effective local politicians I ever knew had worked in a bank, served in the army (WWII), been a chicken farmer, became a public servant and went on to do a PhD. Now that is diverse.

  28. Socrates – yes I am often stunned when looking through the CVs of US politicians – who have worked their way up 3 layers of poltics – county/state/federal. Doesn’t seem to improve the calibre of politician.

    Then again maybe that’s one reason they have the ability certainly at federal level to put appropriately talented people into Cabinet roles who are not elected (though obviously this has been abused in the past).

  29. Here’s a guess. Johnston demoted to Assistant A-G. Andrews to an ambassadorship (Holy See?). Cash to Immigration. Ley to Social Services. Morrison to Defence and Homeland Security (ASIO plus AFP, leaving Johnston with not much to do as Assistant A-G) . Keenan as Assistant Minister to Morrison Frydenberg to Ass Treasurer. Two new women (O’Dwyer plus one) come in at the bottom rung.

    If Johnston goes out altogether, Christian Porter comes in (to placate the WA brigade).

  30. fess,

    Being seen to be doing something in response to the polls is critical for the Government at this time.

    I suppose there is the dilemma of whether someone should be sacked before or after their holiday. However, the new Minsiters will want to be briefed about their portfolios before the new political year commences.

  31. fess,

    The Government may need major surgery. But, at the moment aspirin and a band aid seems to be the only treatment they will consider.

  32. [There should be 20% professionals of whom no more than half should be lawyers, the rest doctors, architects, accountants, scientists etc.]

    I know this was just the usual lawyer bashing, but if you simplify and categorize those going into law school as either good (actually interested in social justice, indeed justice, so like Melissa Parke) or evil (George Brandis need i say more) the problem you have is you have got two groups of people highly likely to self select for politics.

    The practice of law may not be particularly helpful in Parliament, but the actual degree certainly would be. Perhaps a law degree should be a prerequisite to running for political office in Australia?

  33. Meher and Confessions

    Promoting Porter may well placate the WA Tories but given he is a first-term Federal MP could well upset a lot of other people.

    The man is said to have talent but he does come from that notoriously shallow pool,the WA Liberal Party.

  34. Ley is reasonable value (a former middle-ranking public servant with some awareness).
    Frydenberg would make a much better Treasurer then Hockey (and that could be the next step if they can’t stomach the idea of Malcolm in the role).
    The PM apparently rates Cash. Not surprising, because she reminds me a bit of him: a political warrior motivated more by her hatred of the other side than any sort of positive agenda. But, to be fair, she seems to be a fair bit smarter than Abbott. I still think she is a bit of a risk, so Credlin-Loughnane might well have vetoed her this time.

  35. confessions

    Perhaps Tony is turning ovr a new leaf and demanding that his new ministers spend the holidays studying their portfolios, instead of asking Peta what to do.

  36. meher baba

    I lean towards agreeing with your judgement, but Ley is too much of a vindictive warrior against Labor for my taste. No doubt that suits Tony’s concept of a “good parliamentary performer”.

    Cash so obviously adores Tony that it’s embarrassing.

  37. [ Senator Sinodinos revealed on Friday that he had agreed in private discussions on Tuesday with the Prime Minister and the Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane that he would stand aside on Tuesday.

    But he revealed that this decision was to be delayed until Friday and only announced on Sunday ]

    Ahhh, but others clearly wanted the reshuffle announced Sunday, so Arthurs ‘News’ was better gotten out of the way beforehand.

Comments Page 26 of 34
1 25 26 27 34

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *