Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.
A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.
pedant@1199
I would agree if there were also an effective and truly independent Federal ICAC established.
1198
I think that the broader life experience meant less political group-think and caused less poll driven politics. I also do not think that it is a coincidence that economic equality has declined as politics has become more of a career in itself and thus politics more elite. There was an improvement in equality back in some of the decades after paid MPs were introduced, dramatically reducing the elite nature of politics before then.
Interesting reading from a couple of days ago. It may have already been linked. The punchline is
[“To the astonishment of Joe Hockey and Tony Shepherd, most ordinary Australians still believe in what used to be called the “fair go”. “]
https://newmatilda.com/2014/12/18/year-review-turns-out-we-were-listening-wrong-politician
To give but one example of where wisdom helps. I have very little time for Senator Brandeis, but at least somewhere along the way he picked up enough sense to realise that it’s not a good idea to play silly games with High Court appointments; and the one he made recently seems to have been well received. Contrast that with the snotty-nosed brat of an Attorney-General in Queensland, and his preposterous mishandling of the appointment of the Chief Justice.
Pedant
I see where you are coming from. But I think Lanor might want to set up a few inquiries first.
The slipper-ashby-pyne-brough connection is one that springs to mind. I am sure there are many others
pedant:
I’m not of the view that age in and of itself begets wisdom nor eschews a petulant desire to play political games.
For every Tony Windsor there is a Nick Minchin. Christopher Pyne may be in a class all of his own, but look at Paul Keating, or Natasha Stott Despoyer, both of whom entered politics at a young age.
Placing ‘real world experience’ labels onto those who seek political office is pretty meaningless these days in my view.
Steve
I read that Ben Eltham piece the other day. It was interesting also the Tories still have the little blue book of promises up in their website. The lies are still there for all to see, written down, not an off the cuff comment at a press conference.
pedant
Firstly, you’d expect the backgrounds of MPs to change in the same way that the backgrounds of their constituents have – a more educated populace means more educated MPs, which means more MPs coming from professional backgrounds (which includes professional politics).
Secondly, the number of staff MPs have is far greater than it was – even proportionally – decades ago, so there’s more opportunity for prospective MPs to serve in that capacity before entering Parliament – which also means more MPs are aware of the skills needed to deal with constituents (I’m seeing first hand the downside of an MP whose staff have no political expertise).
Thirdly, there is a tendency to describe MPs in terms of their last job before entering Parliament. We describe Chifley as a train driver; nowadays he’d be described as a ‘union boss’. Similarly, there are MPs in Parliament I’m aware of who were truck drivers and brickies – but they’re not described as such.
Finally, as Mike Rann said when he was accused of being a professional politician — “What do you want? Amateurs?”
Steve777 @ 1203: That’s an interesting article, especially where it reprises Mr Hockey’s attack on the age of entitlement.
Personally I think the government is making the gravest of mistakes in adopting a moralistic tone against people who benefit from “entitlements”; because more often than not, the entitlements in question weren’t requested by the beneficiaries, but were invented in some campaign office at election time, and showered upon the populace in an orgy of vote buying. So for politicians now to suggest that it’s all our fault is a really rich.
1204
You certainly do not have enough time for him to spell his name correctly. Its Brandis. There is no “e”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Brandis
It is good, but slightly surprising, that they have not gone for ridiculous and ideological judicial appointments.
Zoomster
I recall many years go (like the 70s) reading through the list of nominations before an election. The candidates had to list their occupations. There were the usual MP for the sitting members, andthe inevitable lawyers and teachers.
One pompous Tory described himself as a “legislator” but my favourite was Labor front bencher Colin Jamieson, who by that stage had been in parliament for many years and a minister in the Tonkin government and was later an unsuccessful leader of the opposition. He listed himself as a carpenter.
A true man of the people was Colin.
Tim Fischer was twenty five when he entered politics.
Tony Windsor’s ‘life experience’ was that of a farmer.
Given that farmers make up less than 2% of the workforce, they’re probably over represented in Parliament.
1208
Good point about political staff.
Is it true that fewer and fewer of the union organisers and leadership, in the more blue collar unions at least, worked they way up from the front line of those professions? That is another potential source of political professionalisation (at least in the ALP).
Maybe there needs to be a restriction that political staffers cannot be MPs for at least a couple of years after stopping being political staffers.
1210
A lot of people on here have inserted an ‘e’ in Brandis. So many that I was wondering if it was done on purpose and had some significance.
zoomster @ 1208: You make some fair points. As it happens, I have connections to political staffers from bygone days, and I’m by no means sure that the growth in MPs’ staff levels is a good thing on the whole. If they are all doing genuine work for constituents, that’s one thing. But far too many seem just to be junior political activists being parked at the public expense for a few years. And as for Mike Rann’s riposte, I’m far from convinced that there’s necessarily something wrong with “amateur” politicians, if one interprets an “amateur” as meaning someone who does something for the love of it, rather than for what they can get out of it. Andrew Wilkie strikes me as a quintessential amateur, and I’d rather have him any day than a professional like Eddie Obeid.
1214
I had noticed that mistake before. I know of know significance. There is not even a former West German Chancellor to blame line in the insufficiently infrequent misspelling of Adam Bandt`s surname.
Tom the first and best @ 1210: I have reached the age where I am entitled to get a bit of lonely pleasure from irony, which is why I always refer to Senator Brandis as Brandeis, after the great Justice Louis D. Brandeis, a genuine liberal. (I recall having to clarify that for Psephos – what’s happened to him, incidentally – quite some time back.)
1215
Amateur implies/says that they are not being paid. Those are bad elitist days we do not want to go back to.
I do however agree that we do not want politicians to be there for what they can get out of it, rather than how they can improve society.
[It is just a few days before Christmas and probably not the best time to be warning people of impending doom, but then, when is a good time? The world is in a precarious position right now, brought into sharp focus with the sudden and dramatic fall in the price of oil.
At its current price of $60 US per barrel, down from $115 US in June, oil could be the tipping point for a worldwide stock market crash in 2015, one that would be more severe and more devastating than the 2008 GFC. The current price might be great for consumers but definitely not for exporters like Russia.]
http://theaimn.com/doomsday-crash-coming/
More than a few people mentioned that Wyatt Roy had stated on his parliamentary details that he was a strawberry farmer before entering parliament, despite the fact he was actually a student who was only working part-time on his family’s strawberry farm, and only when he didn’t need to be at uni 😀
If I ever apply for the “job” as an MP, I’d say I was self-employed, which I am. I raise children, cook, clean the house, wash clothes and care for animals. That’s some pretty handy life experience right there
Re Pedent @1209: they are only going after long-standing entitlements for people having a hard time. Unemployment benefits, introduced in the 1949s. Medicare. Disability pensions. eventually aged pensions through indexation arrangements and raising the pension age. Loading young people wuth debt to pay for a degree (and unlike pre-Whitlam, they are mandatory for so many jobs where year 12 or even year 10 sufficed).
Meanwhile, FBT rorts, super for millionaires, subsidies for elite private schools or private health insurance remain untouched.
[Andrew Wilkie strikes me as a quintessential amateur, and I’d rather have him any day than a professional like Eddie Obeid.]
You say that because Eddie Obeid is allegedly corrupt. If Obeid is the benchmark of how so called professional politicians are judged, then everyone’s going to choose the unprepared, amateur Wilkie.
Not a good comparison. How about Stephen Smith? He was a staffer who became an MP, was promoted to the ministry and became the Defence Minister who took on the the ADF to try to turn around the culture of abuse and bully boy crap happening there.
Night all
According to Wikipedia, God bless it, Justice Brandeis’s opinions “were, according to legal scholars, some of the “greatest defenses” of freedom of speech and the right to privacy ever written by a member of the Supreme Court”. Which just makes the irony even more delicious.
confessions @ 1222: “Allegedly” (!!!!) corrupt? Re Stephen Smith, I don’t disagree with you. There will always be professional politicians who do well (or badly), just as there will be amateurs who do well (or badly). I think having more MPs with broader life experience will overall produce a more sensible parliament, but that doesn’t deny that you will get good (and bad) ones from all backgrounds. Probably the worst situation is when they all come from similar backgrounds – which brings us back to where this discussion started a few hours ago: Joe Hockey living in an echo chamber.
@1200 Pedant
Yes any reasoning that avoids ever having another Christopher Pyne in cabinet must be pursued…
To me it doesn’t seem that many genuine politicians who work hard and care for positive outcomes for their communities actually achieve senior political positions. It is the ambitious sociopathic snakes that slither into the top jobs.
Albo vs Shorten for example.
Dio @ 1126
You give JWH far too much credit. Yeeh, he kept that rabble in line for 11 years, and then lost his OWN seat, as sitting PM.
That rabble was the same lot who sent Downer as their emmisary to tap little Johnnie on the shoulder. His reply? “F*ck off”.
Keeping that lot in control says more about the Liberal party as a whole than JWH (aka Man of Steele). Spare me.
Why didn’t oil producers – state and corporate – plan on the basis that oil prices would return to something like trend? Ditto for iron ore and coal producers? Rhetorical question, the average contract of a CEO is 5 years. Ditto Australian real estate. Will it continue booming when the average home costs 8, 10, 12 years of an average wage? 15? But that’s the trend.
I’m a market sceptic. We have this vast machine at the core of our economic life driven alternatively by fear and greed, careering about blindly, understood by nobody, in spite of claims to expertise. One day it will career over a cliff.
Agreed with all about the sentiments regarding BK and his family. I can say no more.
Best wishes for you and your famiily, mate.
Steve @1227
I agree. The only long term thinkers seem to be NASA and one can argue about the value of lodging some folks on Mars for whatever reason – probably to claim mining rights.
Some time back I went down the thought process in relation to over population and finite resources and what happens to companies that rely on population growth for business growth when population growth is no longer possible…
It would be remiss of me having enjoyed BK’s daily media highlights for some time not to wish all the best for a positive outcome.
Also having enjoyed reading the amazing “PB” collective wisdom over many months .. A sincere thank you to the host and all contributors.
Zoomster et al
It is not age or being a staffer as such that is the problem, rather it is a lack of diversity and hence a lack of empathy and information and feedback.
Some “career” politicians by nature or by effort are natural listeners and can gain the skills needed to truly represent people. Others cannot.
Every person gains knowledge and connections though their life and the wider and more diverse their experience, the greater chance their is of them knowing and understanding when a policy will not work.
People who have worked in a job understand what the stresses are for people, they grasp public transport, roads, travel time etc. They instantly grasp OHS issues or the importance of overtime
The Summer Solstice occurs in about 34 hours, i.e. 23:03 UTC Sunday December 21 (10:03am Monday December 22 AEDT), for those who are planning to sacrifice a goat to the Sun God.
Thanks Steve
I will get my goat early tomorrow.
I’d prefer to find one of the idiots who defend fraudband and sacrifice one of those instead.
Or, we could always sacrifice Wyatt Roy 😀
Steve I’ll be in the Warrumbungles somewhere at that time so if I come across a feral goat in the meantime I’ll keep it on hand. There’s a few choice spots out there.
[I’m a market sceptic. We have this vast machine at the core of our economic life driven alternatively by fear and greed, careering about blindly, understood by nobody, in spite of claims to expertise. One day it will career over a cliff.]
Me too.
Its already gone off one cliff in the last decade and when the US shale/fracking bubble bursts it could go off one the size of Mt Thor.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Peter FitzSimons – Sydney ditches cynicism for empathy in the wake of the siege.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-ditches-cynicism-for-empathy-in-the-wake-of-siege-20141220-12bceh.html
And here’s Peter’s MUST READ weekly column.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/peter-fitzsimons-sydney-siege-met-with-courage-wisdom-and-one-exception-20141220-12ayw1.html
Charles Waterstreet – Sydney in the aftermath.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sydney-in-the-aftermath-of-the-siege-20141220-12ah5y.html
Hockey declare his budget was not unfair. Well that’s a good reading Joe!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-promises-debate-about-fairness-and-tax-reform-hints-at-budget-family-package-and-admits-regrets-20141220-12ao09.html
A Port Arthur survivor with sage advice on gun control.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/port-arthur-survivor-and-victims-father-slam-call-for-postsiege-gun-reform-20141220-12azn3.html
A very good insight into the life of the Coroner in the wake of the siege.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/inside-the-martin-place-tragedy–the-story-of-the-coroners-court-20141220-12b0d3.html
Nice work from Obama here.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-president-barack-obama-takes-questions-only-from-women-apparently-a-white-house-first-20141220-12beex.html
Over-reaction to 9/11 took the US on the wrong path with torture.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/overreaction-to-911-set-us-on-path-to-torture-20141220-12ajxy.html
The twenty three things the Liberals did wrong yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/12/21/the-twenty-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-145/
And the day before . . .
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/12/20/the-twenty-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-144/
Section 2 . . .
Our nation is showing signs of growing up by the looks of it.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/religious-instruction-faces-massive-enrolments-drop-funding-uncertainty-20141220-12a1p0.html
Ian Chappell says that Steve Smith should now stay as captain.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/cricket/steve-smith-should-be-australias-test-and-odi-captain-if-michael-clarke-returns-writes-ian-chappell/story-fn67x7ne-1227163092384
Michael Gordon – Julie Bishop and the empathy deficit.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/julie-bishop-and-the-empathy-deficit-20141219-12ajf5.html
More on out energy security. Think about it.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/-stepping-on-the-gas-addressing-australias-energy-security-,7212
Lambie’s botox addiction.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/senator-jacqui-lambie-reveals-she-does-botox-and-is-looking-for-love/story-fnii5s40-1227162933537
Cathy Wilcox with some people’s idea of a holiday.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
On this longest day of the summer, I dips me lid to the scientists of the CSIRO. Far from being the profligate spenders that Joe labels them, Labor had already tightened the screws on the CSIRO budget. But now, under the Coalition
[For some researchers who kept their jobs, life in a leaner organisation now includes chores such as cleaning laboratories, writing promotional material, sorting mail and refilling photocopiers.]
Link, sorry
http://www.theage.com.au/technology/sci-tech/sunday-explainer-longterm-effect-of-csiro-budget-cuts-20141220-12arim.html
BK – Your contribution here is valued by all – when overseas I have used your Dawn Patrol (at some odd hours!) as the best and quickest way to catch up on what’s happening in Australia.
I haven’t really got into Twitter yet – I am an observer (or “twitcher” I suppose). But I recently saw your lovely Twitter photos. A very pretty area in the Hills. I hope you (and all the Hills) are saved from any major fires this summer.
Best wishes for all your family for Christmas and the New Year.
Thanks Rocket
Last year when overseas I also logged onto the the blog to quickly catch up with hings that interest me.
And yes, the Adelaide Hills are a great place although always under the spectre of the possibility of a major bushfire.
Coming to live up here 5 years ago was a wonderful thing to do – way beyond our expectaions. It’s very much a community thing.
pedant
not having any kind of go at you, but I think the problem is class, not profession.
Lawyers are undeniably over represented in Parliament. That’s a problem exacerbated by the fact that the lawyers in Parliament tend to come from the same background – aspirtational middle class or upper class (I’m not one who throws the word ‘class’ around much, but it’s the best word for my present point — don’t get too hung up on it).
I worked with a group of councillors once. Most of them were farmers, which wasn’t the problem. The problem was that a couple of them, who came from the same town, moved in exactly the same circles. Their belief that what they were doing and saying represented the wishes of that town were absolute, because their views were reinforced by ‘everyone they talked to’ and ‘everyone they talked to’ thought they were representative of the views of the town.
I often say that if the only thing I achieved on council was to challenge that viewpoint, then that was an enormous achievement.
To cut it short: the problem Government ministers (and some other MPs) have is not their professional background, or lack of life experience per se, but the fact they move in restricted circles, and the group think current in those circles is seen as ‘normal’.
That can happen in all walks of life – many of the more ratbag populists have similar problems.
I realise we’re basically saying the same thing, but my overall point is that it’s just as probable that the MPs of old were blind to certain points of view because ‘everyone they talked to said..’ as modern pollies are.
(After all, Menzies tenure in office wasn’t seen as a time when ideas were explored and assumptions challenged..)
jules 1237 – just don’t step on any of the giant pink slugs if you go to nearby Mt.Kaputar! They are now endangered, I think because the cool environment they need is retreating higher and higher up the mountain. Eventually of course even the top may be too hot for them – then there is nowhere to go as the surrounding land is flat and hotter so there is no “escape” South to a cooler climate.
http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/wildlife/2013/06/the-giant-pink-slugs-of-mount-kaputar
http://www.abc.net.au/local/audio/2014/04/30/3995202.htm
zoomster
In support of your thesis, Joe “completely rejects” the idea that his budget was too ideological.
[Reflecting on the 2014 budget – which Treasury modelling released to Fairfax Media in August showed was inequitable with respect to where cuts were made – Mr Hockey admitted regret over the budget sales job.
“We spent more time focusing on outcomes than we did on messaging, and I regret that,” he said.
But he said it was “completely incorrect” to say the budget was unfair and that “there are numerous initiatives that have helped people in Australia who are facing adversity”.]
The circles that Joe moves in agree with him, and people that don’t agree need a better sales job!
BK 1243
Coming to live up here 5 years ago was a wonderful thing to do
And all this time I thought you’d just gone into witness protection to get away from your stalker Sophie M !
Rocket
You might be on to something there!
It would seem an increasing number are calling bolt and Devine out for what they are.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/18/illridewithyou-do-australias-rightwingers-hate-it-because-they-dont-know-their-own-readers
Absolutely love this quote from Rachel Jacobs, who started the #illridewithyou hash tag, in response to her critics —
[“I’d rather deliver a message to racists, bigots and anyone who dares to derive a message of hate from this tragedy – it is you who are unwelcome here. Your values have no place in civilised society, and if you spread intolerance, there’s an avalanche of kindness ready to take you down.”]