Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research proves very unlike Morgan in showing a slight improvement of the Coalition vote, but opinions on the future of the Liberal leadership and the result of the next election would wipe any smile off Tony Abbott’s face.

Essential Research bucks the trend a little in ticking back a point to the Coalition, with Labor’s lead now at 52-48. The Coalition gains a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting the parties at 40% and 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady at 10% and 2%. However, the fun for Tony Abbott ends there, as the poll turns in the remarkable findings that only 29% think him likely to be Liberal leader at the next election versus 51% for unlikely, and that 46% consider Labor to win the election versus 27% for the Coalition. Forty-seven per cent think Bill Shorten likely to remain as leader against only 20% who don’t. Further questions relate to climate change, a semi-regular question finding 57% (up one since September) relating it to human activity and 29% (down one) expressing skepticism, and fully 51% saying they are more concerned than they were two years ago against 9% for less concerned. Twenty-six per cent think Australia is doing enough versus 51% not enough, but opinion is even more negative about the responses of the United States and China.

Roy Morgan has turned in an eye-opener with its final poll of the year, recording a blowout in the Labor lead to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (53.5-46.5 last time) and 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences (53-47). On the primary vote, Labor is up 3.5% to 41%, the Coalition is down 4% to 35%, the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5% and Palmer United is steady on 2%. This is not in fact the worst result for the term recorded by the Coalition, having been surpassed by the poll of June 7/8. However, that was a single weekly result rather the a combined fortnightly one in Morgan’s usual fashion. If combined with the poll of the following week, the result comes out as comparable with this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,023 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Sept 30 2014
    They voted against Labor’s Countering Tax Avoidance and Multinational Profit Shifting Bill 2013, which plugged loopholes in Australia’s transfer pricing rules and anti-avoidance provisions.

    They attempted to block Labor’s Cross-Border Transfer Pricing Bill 2012, which cracked down on companies overvaluing assets in international transactions.

    Now they’re in government, they’ve walked away from Labor measures which would have delivered $1.1 billion to the budget bottom line.

    Worse still, for all the huffing and puffing at the G20 from Joe Hockey about the need to crack down on tax avoidance, he’s signed Australia up to a timetable that puts us behind over 40 countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy.

    This means Australia won’t sign up to the automatic exchange of financial information across borders until 40 other nations are already doing it, leaving Australia lagging behind.

    Surprisethey are backing down

  2. [
    Perhaps Costello as the CEO of the Future Fund could explain why he has set up subsidiaries in tax havens]

    1. Everybody does it
    2. It works mate
    3. ATO greatly understaffed and easily outgunned in litigation

  3. A government fund, being run by a Liberal is ripping off tax payers by avoiding paying tax in Australia.

    Makes sense to me…..

    1. No they don’t.
    2. Its a form of theft
    3. Abbott has ensured they are even further understaffed. That’s one way to help out mates

  4. [A government fund, being run by a Liberal is ripping off tax payers by avoiding paying tax in Australia.]

    The Future Fund is exempt from Australian tax.

  5. Re AA @53: hardly surprising. A serious attack on tax avoidance would upset to many bug Liberal backers / donors – in fact probably all of them.

  6. AA 48 – I sympathise with you. Having been peripherally involved with some things over the years that became newsworthy incidents it is almost sickening to see the absolutely crap way they are reported. It is one thing to not know but there are always things they say/write that you know are not true and that they must have just made up – to “fill in the gaps” in their own narrative.

    You then realise that every other story they report is probably also crap like yours was.

  7. Yes, let’s play the seasonal invoke-Jesus-in-the-name-of-your-cause game, shall we, Mal?

    [My house shall be called the house of prayer; but ye have made it a den of thieves.

    Matthew 21:13]

    Amen.

  8. davidwh

    [The Future Fund is exempt from Australian tax.]

    They probably pay what’s called a ‘tax equivalent’ i.e. calculate it ( and payroll tax) and pay it directly to Consolidated Revenue).

  9. [ Not puzzled as that will be the subject of Police Internal Investigation and the Coroner. ]

    As it should be. Can you imagine how ridiculously difficult and stressful it would be to be one of the first police into the room in that situation? Its all happening NOW and decisions on shooting or not have to be made in a split second, trying to find the target in a dark room with flashbangs going off? Yet, its your job and your duty and you have no alternative but to do it even though you probably have no up to date information on where the target actually is in the room but are pretty sure he’s started killing hostages?

    Yup, i’d say there is a chance that at least some of the wounds to hostages will turn out to be from police weapons and if they are it will be obvious. But no way speculation on this is in any way useful until the investigation is progressed.

    I cant conceive that this guy had even the shotgun legally given his history, and if he had one illegal weapon what’s the chances he actually had others like a pistol or some such?

  10. [
    WWP
    ATO greatly understaffed and easily outgunned in litigation
    They are ratshit at assembling the facts.]

    They are indeed very bad at asking the right questions and in knowing whether or not the answer they get is at all reasonable. Many I know are very diligent and smart but they are so far outgunned it is embarrassing.

  11. [44
    BK

    Oops! Abbott’s just dropped in three “death cult” mentions. They are “against God” he says.]

    If the MSM don’t skewer him over this dangerously exploitative dog-whistling, they are worthless.

  12. Thanks David for the link to the future fund paper – very nice

    I will use the line ‘we weren’t trying to avoid tax merely the duplication of tax’ myself!

  13. rocket

    As someone with a passing acquaintance with the media I always tell my family that if we are are involved in an “incident” never to speak to journalists. They are not your friends. They will no respect your privacy or your grief.

    I was so proud of my 90 year old mum last year when one of her neighbours died in tragic circumstances. my mother was one of the first on the scene and had good knowledge of what happened.

    When a tv reporter came sniffing around the next day she gave him short shrift.

  14. Just back from the specialist’s with devastating news. I have been diagonsed with Bolt’s Disease.

    This is a condition involving a strange compulsion to read Andrew Bolt blog posts, but when you do read them you hear Bolt’s awful Dutch-Afrikaans sing-song lilt as if you were strapped into a chair and he was torturing you by reading his own words out loud.

  15. CTar #68

    Not according to their 2013 Financial Reports. They pay foreign taxes and no payments I can see to the Federal Government. The following is the lead to their taxation note.

    [The Fund is exempt from all forms of federal Australian taxation, except for Fringe Benefits
    Tax (FBT) and the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Tax expense reflects foreign withholding
    tax on income and other corporate taxes where imposed by certain countries. Accordingly,
    the Australian tax rate for the Fund is 0% (2012: 0%).]

  16. WWP regardless the Future Fund is not ripping off Australian taxpayers. That is clearly an incorrect statement. You may try to argue they are ripping off some foreign government but that is a different issue. Clearly they do not believe they are.

  17. bemused.

    Shortened shotguns have, at most, 2 chambers, and head shots from a few metres are almost invariably lethal (from the blast alone). The TOU guys knew (from the escaped hostages) that Monis was alone, had a sawn-off shotgun (& what looked like body armour) and claimed to have explosives in his bag. Once Monis fired, he has one more shot before he needs to reload – which would have been point at which the TOU officers moved. In this sort of close assault, the point pair would have throw a flashbang and gone in shooting – aiming to immobilise Monis (read hit the centre of mass with at least 1 high velocity round from the first burst) before he could trigger explosives. It is quite possible that either or both of the dead hostages were hit by both shotgun blasts and police bullets – but this is real, not Hollywood, and anyone who thinks that it is possible to accurately line up and fire an assault rifle at close range to head shoot an armed man has never actually had to do it.

    I have no doubt whatsoever that the Police did what they were trained for, and did it to the best of their ability. The rest of us would be well advised to wait for the report. It is not possible to disguise any errors or mistakes.

  18. davidwh

    [Not according to their 2013 Financial Reports.]

    Interesting for what is essentially a govt business.

    Not the same as others were treated.

  19. CTar I guess the whole purpose of the Future Fund is to accumulate funds to provide superannuation and retirement benefits for federal government employees so their charter likely takes this into account. The position may change at some point in the future if the wealth in the fund exceeds the calculated liability for those commitments.

  20. Very good Fulvio @56
    I was thinking of
    [Commission Royale]
    Re Hockey and the international tax, after all this what are they thinking.
    Don’t they kmow that hitting the corporates and especially offshore multinationals is going to be popular?

  21. [Can you imagine how ridiculously difficult and stressful it would be to be one of the first police into the room in that situation? Its all happening NOW and decisions on shooting or not have to be made in a split second, trying to find the target in a dark room with flashbangs going off? Yet, its your job and your duty and you have no alternative but to do it even though you probably have no up to date information on where the target actually is in the room but are pretty sure he’s started killing hostages?]

    The only thing those cops should have been concentrating on was the actual dynamics of their job. IE what they have to do and how and when to do it. If that wasn’t the case I’d be surprised and shocked. The people doing that job aren’t everyday coppers.

    Presumably the task at hand is all they were thinking of. I also presume there was always a group ready to charge in at a moments notice and that they were given up to date information about where people were regularly (ie they had plans and constantly updated them.) That even hours beforehand, waiting, they all had their specific tasks and a well understood plan about what to do when they went into the building and that were well trained and drilled etc etc.

    Yes it would have been difficult and stressful, and no doubt at least some of whatever happened was outside what they planned for but if they were trained and selected properly then the cops doing that particular job would have devoted all their concentration to doing their job properly. They probably wouldn’t have felt the stress and difficulty until after the event, (and possibly beforehand when they were sitting around waiting.)

  22. [WWP regardless the Future Fund is not ripping off Australian taxpayers. That is clearly an incorrect statement. You may try to argue they are ripping off some foreign government but that is a different issue. Clearly they do not believe they are.]

    I don’t remember saying they were ripping off Australian taxpayers. I am not trying to argue anything except that I quite liked the document you linked. I’m as sure there is a group of tax lawyers very proud of it too and maybe a couple of marketing PR guys. Unlike you I would not take it as indicative of what they believe. It is always better if you can avoid your management having any beliefs at all about tax other than ‘we have a large group of vey talented and surprisingly highly paid people to ensure we pay exactly the right amount of tax.’

  23. WWP

    [It is always better if you can avoid your management having any beliefs at all about tax other than ‘we have a large group of vey talented and surprisingly highly paid people to ensure we pay exactly the right amount of tax.’]

    JWH’s govt started this madness with his decision to make govt agencies to pay GST.

    The C’wlth paying the C’wlth is a unique idea.

  24. CTar1

    [JWH’s govt started this madness with his decision to make govt agencies to pay GST.]

    What was the reason we serfs were given for doing it and what was the actual cunning plan ?

  25. poroti

    [and what was the actual cunning plan ?]

    The ‘the actual cunning plan’ cost the Federal Govt a fortune in IT costs that were totally illogical.

  26. With GST the last entity in the line pays the GST with all previous entities obtaining a GST credit. If the government is a major end user of goods and services,which it is, all that accumulated GST has to go to Treasury (eventually the states) or else the GST revenue is captured in federal government departments.

  27. [ How can someone who has had such a long and chequered history, not be on the appropriate watch lists?
    Tony Abbott ]
    I don’t know dickhead, maybe someone was more interested in making laws to check on Joe Bloes internet history than he was about keeping an eye on known nutters

  28. [JWH’s govt started this madness with his decision to make govt agencies to pay GST.]

    Very large teams of highly paid tax advisors is a really really good thing – a really really good thing. And it thins out the market a bit if the govt needs tax teams as well!

  29. Maybe this is true and maybe there will be a posthumous bravery award

    [Mrs Dawson, a respected barrister from Eighth Floor Selborne chambers, whose offices are opposite the cafe, was said to have been killed in the ensuing firefight while protecting pregnant friend and colleague Julie Taylor, whom she had been meeting for a coffee.]

  30. shellbell

    All of this is just so distressing!

    I also want to praise the way the police handled all of that yesterday I thought the did very well with strategies.

  31. rhwombat@78

    bemused.

    Shortened shotguns have, at most, 2 chambers, and head shots from a few metres are almost invariably lethal (from the blast alone). The TOU guys knew (from the escaped hostages) that Monis was alone, had a sawn-off shotgun (& what looked like body armour) and claimed to have explosives in his bag. Once Monis fired, he has one more shot before he needs to reload – which would have been point at which the TOU officers moved. In this sort of close assault, the point pair would have throw a flashbang and gone in shooting – aiming to immobilise Monis (read hit the centre of mass with at least 1 high velocity round from the first burst) before he could trigger explosives. It is quite possible that either or both of the dead hostages were hit by both shotgun blasts and police bullets – but this is real, not Hollywood, and anyone who thinks that it is possible to accurately line up and fire an assault rifle at close range to head shoot an armed man has never actually had to do it.

    I have no doubt whatsoever that the Police did what they were trained for, and did it to the best of their ability. The rest of us would be well advised to wait for the report. It is not possible to disguise any errors or mistakes.

    I don’t know where you get the ‘high velocity’ rounds from. I think you will find both their pistols and the H&K MP5s I think police forces use, both fire 9mm parabellum which I would not class as ‘high velocity’. Approx 400m/s.

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