Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research proves very unlike Morgan in showing a slight improvement of the Coalition vote, but opinions on the future of the Liberal leadership and the result of the next election would wipe any smile off Tony Abbott’s face.

Essential Research bucks the trend a little in ticking back a point to the Coalition, with Labor’s lead now at 52-48. The Coalition gains a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting the parties at 40% and 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady at 10% and 2%. However, the fun for Tony Abbott ends there, as the poll turns in the remarkable findings that only 29% think him likely to be Liberal leader at the next election versus 51% for unlikely, and that 46% consider Labor to win the election versus 27% for the Coalition. Forty-seven per cent think Bill Shorten likely to remain as leader against only 20% who don’t. Further questions relate to climate change, a semi-regular question finding 57% (up one since September) relating it to human activity and 29% (down one) expressing skepticism, and fully 51% saying they are more concerned than they were two years ago against 9% for less concerned. Twenty-six per cent think Australia is doing enough versus 51% not enough, but opinion is even more negative about the responses of the United States and China.

Roy Morgan has turned in an eye-opener with its final poll of the year, recording a blowout in the Labor lead to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (53.5-46.5 last time) and 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences (53-47). On the primary vote, Labor is up 3.5% to 41%, the Coalition is down 4% to 35%, the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5% and Palmer United is steady on 2%. This is not in fact the worst result for the term recorded by the Coalition, having been surpassed by the poll of June 7/8. However, that was a single weekly result rather the a combined fortnightly one in Morgan’s usual fashion. If combined with the poll of the following week, the result comes out as comparable with this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,023 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. From the Guardian:

    [It is not clear whether or not Monis actually did have a gun licence. NSW Police said they had no record of Monis holding a gun licence in the state. The only other state in which Monis is known to have lived is Western Australia, where he lived for six months. WA police have been contacted for comment.

    During a police interview in 2011, Monis said he had previously had access to firearms, but the licence had expired.

    “Yes … when I was a security officer in Australia. I had a licence, then I got another licence of firearms,” Monis said, according to an ABC report.

    Guardian Australia has confirmed that Monis did hold a security licence in New South Wales between 1999 and 2000. But Monis still would have needed to apply separately for a firearm licence to use a weapon, and would have needed to show he had a genuine reason to hold the licence.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/17/sydney-siege-hostage-taker-man-haron-monis-had-gun-licence-tony-abbott-confirms

  2. All the searches about gun licence requirements are probably going to excite Fox News into thinking Australians want to buy guns.

    What dashed hopes they are going to have when they realise the truth

  3. [ ABC News ‏@abcnews 5m5 minutes ago
    ICYMI: Iran says Australia refused request for extradition of #sydneysiege gunman Man Haron Monis http://ab.co/1BTGLd8 ]

    [Iran says it requested the extradition of Sydney siege gunman Man Haron Monis 14 years ago, but Australia refused to hand him over ]

    On howards watch then.

  4. The volume of people congregated quietly in Martin Place is moving.

    A security guard greeting me at Angel Place concert hall makes me sad, again.

  5. “@jmodoh: As I understand it, each state’s firearms registry is also in conduct with other states. Not likely to have license in WA w/out NSW knowing”

  6. ross 755

    don’t worry – even if he arrived under Howard and settled under Howard, they will emphasise he dropped off watch list under Labor. And that he was personally armed by a NSW Labor Premier.

  7. I’m guessing then that Monis had a security license and carried a gun but never actually applied for a firearms license. He just confabulated the two.

    Still, we’ll know for sure one of these days.

  8. rossmcg

    Abbott just couldn’t help himself, again.

    All of those questions would have been covered in the wash up of it all in all probability anyway.

    He just had to deal himself in to it all.

  9. Dio:

    If he never had a firearm’s licence then you’d think the PM wouldn’t go on national TV telling everyone he did.

    Either PMO or NSW police has messed up with this.

  10. Offical statement:

    [Hugh Riminton ‏@hughriminton 53s53 seconds ago
    Official @nswpolice statement: “there is no record of the 50-year-old man (#ManMonis) having held a firearms licence.”
    Checking back w/#PMO]

  11. [Sandra Sully ‏@Sandra_Sully 3m3 minutes ago
    Okay @TonyAbbottMHR need clarification now.
    @nswpolice say…have no record of #ManMonis ever having held gun licence #SydneySiege #TenNews]

    Ooh boy.

  12. “@Rob_Stott: So there’s a national registry of gun licences. So in theory if he had a licence in any state the NSW police should know about it”

    Some of the media finally getting there

  13. Imagine the outroar if Rudd had done what Abbott appears to have done! Remember how much grief they gave Bomber when he mixed up his roves.

  14. Read what Abbott actually stated:

    [“there are questions to be asked when someone with such a history of infatuation with extremism, violent crime and mental instability should be in possession of a gun licence”.]

    Possession of a gun licence, not had one in the past. Abbott stuffed up. probably due to his media staff stuffing up.

    At least his enquiry can scratch that tor pretty quickly.

    Oh and the Iran extradition, you need an extradition treaty first – scratch that.
    Welfare – he was an Australian resident and thus entitled – scratch that as well
    How did he get residency? Ask Ruddock.

  15. With all his aliases and fraudulent behaviour, it’s probably a little tricky nailing his past down. It’s possible the police haven’t done a thorough enough check of all his identities – it would be quite astonishing if the PM had been incorrectly advised.

  16. Ch 7 news also on the blame game. Reporter grilling a magistrate who granted Manis bail, as they walk along street. Same interviewing technique as they use on alleged conmen. Also showing Baird saying (wtte) the judiciary needs to improve.

    On this basis perhaps they should sub-contract the judiciary to Jones and Hadley.

    Ch 7 also showing Abbott demanding all sorts of answers on subjects (amazingly where he might hope to blame the previous government). He has certainly returned to ‘political’ mode.

    Ch 7 also raised matter of Army specialists not being summoned from Holsworthy and reply by Scipione.

  17. Remember it was Abbott’s govt which gave us the on-water-operational-matter anti communication fortress about boats.

    How ironic that in rushing to bask in the NSW Police hero glow, Abbott has run his mouth at a time when he should’ve been hand passing statements about the man to the NSW Police/govt, and wound up looking like a total fool.

  18. If there really is a karma bus it will turn out that the migration agent organising his resident status turned out to be a liberal party associate.

  19. rhwombat@746

    Monis claimed, in 2011, to have once had a gun licence while working as a security guard. Given that Monis is not the only name he has used, that he is both a fantasist and a con man, and that many of the “security” licences in NSW used to be issued in Queensland because they were much more lax, I’d say that Monis may well once have had a form of gun licence, but that doesn’t cover a sawn-off shotgun – or Abbott desperately trying to shift the focus away the Murdorc’s minions.

    I appreciated your informed comments yesterday.

    But what is this nonsense being talked here about a licence for a “sawn-off shotgun”?

    Such weapons are made by criminals sawing much off the barrel and also the butt so that is it easily concealed and not unwieldy in a confined space. They are not manufactured as their only purpose is criminal.

  20. On this basis perhaps they should sub-contract the judiciary to Jones and Hadley.

    Sometimes you get the impression that lots of ‘right (wing) minded’ people would replace the entire judicial system with panels of tabloid columnists and talkback hosts, urged on by howling mobs.

  21. It appears WonderWoman has been “boned”. The Abbottification of the ABC continues apace.

    [
    Lyndal CurtisVerified account
    ‏@lyndalcurtis
    It’s been an honour and a privilege working here, especially in the Parlt House bureau where I’ve worked with talented and dedicated people.]

  22. Maybe it is too soon after the operation to be announcing reviews into it.

    Deputy Commissioner Burn yesterday inferred that key operational personnel wouldn’t be returning to work until today and possibly tomorrow, so perhaps not all of those involved have been able to give full statements as yet?

    It just seems remarkable that Abbott could be tripped up on an easily verifiable matter of whether Man Monis had a gun licence. It suggests to me this announcement news conference was rushed for whatever reason, almost certainly in Abbott’s political interests.

  23. bemused

    It is technically possible to get a license for a sawn off shotgun but you have to get permission from the Commissioner of Police.

    It’s probably only allowed for law enforcement training and customs detection training purposes.

  24. The Lying Friar is reverting to type – ambulance chasing and telling porkies.

    This may have worked in the past, but with 57% of the population already disapproving of you, not this time.

  25. [Sometimes you get the impression that lots of ‘right (wing) minded’ people would replace the entire judicial system with panels of tabloid columnists and talkback hosts, urged on by howling mobs.]

    it’s the vibe …

    I caught some of Hadlee this morning, accidentally as I wandered into our school kitchens and the kitchen assistant had him on. He was saying he was sick to his stomach about something. Oddly on the last occasion I had walked in there — about six weeks ago — he was sick to his stomach then too. I am wondering what 2GB is thinking having an employee whose work continually makes him ill continue in his job. Shouldn’t he be on light duties? Shouldn’t he have some sort of therapy?

    Perhaps he could take up knitting, given his love of tabloid justice. 😉

    Usage note: the word ‘mob’ is an aphetic for the Latin mobile vulgus ‘the fickle commoners’. Oddly the remaining morpheme (mob) is the fickle part rather than the commoners part.

  26. Of course Abbott is pushing the “terrorist ” act line.

    It suits the right wing attack on freedoms to have this as a terrorist act.

    Going to be embarrassing in the world media when the review finds he was a deluded narcissistic violent madman who was delusional about his status as a martyr

    Will we see two/three reviews like we have with the NBN? Keep reviewing until you get the outcomes/recommendations you need to justify your actions?

  27. Ch9 reporting that the cafe owner was executed which prompted the police to storm the cafe.

    I read in one news report that he had threatened to kill hostages if more escaped. (Wish I could find it again)

    But it is the “elephant” in the room.

  28. [Paul Barratt ‏@phbarratt 51s51 seconds ago
    TA dog whistling to Western Suburbs/The Shire: why was this guy given asylum, how did he obtain citizenship, why was he on welfare?]

    One forgets that the Lying Friar reads “the Tele”and is regularly interviewed on 2GB. This microcosm of the worst in human nature colours his utterances when let off the hook.

    I suspect he is off the hook.

  29. The review has nine terms of reference, including the circumstances of Man Haron Monis’ arrival in Australia,

    why he was granted citizenship,
    what welfare he received,
    how he was able to access a gun,
    what information security agencies had about him and
    how that information was shared.

  30. AussieAchmed,

    [It suits the right wing attack on freedoms to have this as a terrorist act.]

    I get the impression that both ends of the political spectrum are struggling to fit the Martin Place siege into their respective narratives.

  31. Welfare recipients obviously another pool of potential “terrorists” . One of Abbott’s list of “we need to know” points was how the guy was on welfare for so long.

  32. AussieAchmed,

    [It suits the right wing attack on freedoms to have this as a terrorist act.]
    Good timing . A minute or so after I read that some police type was calling for way more ability to monitor people on line, everyone online.

  33. Welfare recipients obviously another pool of potential “terrorists” . One of Abbott’s list of “we need to know” points was how the guy was on welfare for so long.

    Perhaps on DSP because he was a narcissistic violent criminal nut job

  34. Of the million words and the thousands of hours of repeat video footage we have had to endure re Martin place. Very little has been said about the police at the pointy end.
    The many hours of training can prepare the teams for some aspects of their roles but I wonder how training can properly prepare them for the boredom of standing around for hours and within a few seconds of GO at 2AM; having 40 seconds of a life and death high intensity fight.
    We should give these police on the pointy end more than “A job well done”

  35. Fran:
    [Usage note: the word ‘mob’ is an aphetic for the Latin mobile vulgus‘the fickle commoners’.]

    It’s not really apehtic, though, is it? Otherwise, they’d call mobs ‘biles’.

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