Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research proves very unlike Morgan in showing a slight improvement of the Coalition vote, but opinions on the future of the Liberal leadership and the result of the next election would wipe any smile off Tony Abbott’s face.

Essential Research bucks the trend a little in ticking back a point to the Coalition, with Labor’s lead now at 52-48. The Coalition gains a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting the parties at 40% and 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady at 10% and 2%. However, the fun for Tony Abbott ends there, as the poll turns in the remarkable findings that only 29% think him likely to be Liberal leader at the next election versus 51% for unlikely, and that 46% consider Labor to win the election versus 27% for the Coalition. Forty-seven per cent think Bill Shorten likely to remain as leader against only 20% who don’t. Further questions relate to climate change, a semi-regular question finding 57% (up one since September) relating it to human activity and 29% (down one) expressing skepticism, and fully 51% saying they are more concerned than they were two years ago against 9% for less concerned. Twenty-six per cent think Australia is doing enough versus 51% not enough, but opinion is even more negative about the responses of the United States and China.

Roy Morgan has turned in an eye-opener with its final poll of the year, recording a blowout in the Labor lead to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (53.5-46.5 last time) and 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences (53-47). On the primary vote, Labor is up 3.5% to 41%, the Coalition is down 4% to 35%, the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5% and Palmer United is steady on 2%. This is not in fact the worst result for the term recorded by the Coalition, having been surpassed by the poll of June 7/8. However, that was a single weekly result rather the a combined fortnightly one in Morgan’s usual fashion. If combined with the poll of the following week, the result comes out as comparable with this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,023 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [NSW Police say they are not commenting on whether #sydneysiege gunman had a gun licence]

    Is this an important point?

    Unlicensed guns are easy to procure still in Australia if you really want one.

  2. [Hugh Riminton ‏@hughriminton 2m2 minutes ago
    PM @TonyAbbottMHR’s office is sticking by the assertion that the #sydneysiege gunman did have a gun licence, despite reports that is false.]

  3. Ashleigh Gillon
    @ash_gillon
    Authorities must clarify RT @jmodoh: Sky News has been told by reliable sources that Man Haron Monis did not, & had never, held gun licence

  4. [Not even the ALP can imagine themselves in power in NSW]

    While it is still a long shot for them I would have thought the ALP would have a chance in NSW and Qld.

  5. This tweet tells us where Abbott did over reach

    “@bkjabour: NSW Police say they are not commenting on whether #sydneysiege gunman had a gun licence because part of a “critical incident” investigation.”

    Abbott should have said nothing.

  6. NSW:
    [ C) c class licence covers the following types of prohibited firearms
    self-loading rim fire rifles with magazine capacity of no more than 10 rounds
    self-loading shotguns with magazine capacity of no more than 5 rounds
    pump action shotguns with magazine capacity of no more than 5 rounds
    People who under certain circumstances may be able to obtain this type of licence are for example primary producers who can show genuine reason or need. ]

  7. [Tom Steinfort ‏@tomsteinfort 3m3 minutes ago
    NSW Police just told me the firearms registry “can’t find any record of Man Monis having a firearms license in NSW”….contradicting Abbott]
    Great, our big mouthed PM setting off a turf war between the feds and the NSW police!

  8. ‘fess

    [our big mouthed PM setting off a turf war between the feds and the NSW police!]

    Tones doesn’t care as long as he can find someone else to blame.

    Liberal State Govt’s not immune.

  9. BW

    [Yes. Cobbling together the Greens and the Shooters and Fishers to get anything worthwhile across the line should be a hoot.]

    You may think it a hoot but we have managed that in NSW.

  10. the Oz defending our/its right to be a bigot – it’s ‘imaginary’

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/hashtag-for-an-imaginary-backlash/story-fn8qlm5e-1227158594514

    because Cronulla never ever happened. Because Pauline Hanson never happened. Because Howard and Morrison never realised political advantage by playing the race card. Because people don’t on a daily basis get racial abuse on PT and in public (ask anybody who doesn’t look anglo-aussie of their experiences asian friends of mine say verbal abuse is common, and they have been spat on and punched by strangers). it is totally imaginary. – it may only be one dickhead in 1,000, but there are many 1000s of people on PT every day, and the LNP vote and murdoch readership numbers suggest that the proportion of dickheads out there is much higher than 1 in 1000.

  11. [Crimbo Ramplin ‏@Kimbo_Ramplin 3m3 minutes ago
    I need a drink to process the idea that the NSW Po-leeese are briefing against the PM. Sheeeee-it just got real.]

  12. [Abbott is milking this obviously.]

    he is hoping this is his Tampa. The gunman arrived as a refugee in 1996 – hopefully under Howard or otherwise I can imagine within a week abbott will happen to mention in passing that he ‘arrived as a refugee under a labor government, before John Howard stopped the boats’ (I really hope I haven’t fed them a line there).

    fortunately, not even this can save abbott – all it might to do is give him enough room so that nobody challenges him before the election. Good thing too – abbott will lead the party to oblivion whereas someone else might beat shorten. I think the message is out that the gunman was mentally ill and not linked to any organised terrorist group. to his credit, abbott has done well re: separating the gunman and extremism from mainstream islam. I sense they will not be able to help themselves and will blow the dog whistle/frog horn as soon as they think enough time has passed.

  13. [Nick Ralston ‏@NickDRalston 2m2 minutes ago
    To add further confusion, Man Monis told police in a record of interview in 2011 he had at one stage held a gun license but it had expired.]

    Weirder and weirder.

  14. confessions @ 667 – the bigger question here is where on Earth did Abbott get his information from?

    Its something that can be repeated over and over and become its own “truth” to justify more archaic laws

  15. BW

    I doubt Andrews will need to cobble the Greens and S&F together. He’s got a lot of pathways to pass bills through a combination of a few parties depending on what policies he needs passed through the upper house.

    This morning’s 774 interview with Vote 1 Local Jobs MLC James Purcell says he will pretty much try to work with the government since they have a majority in the lower house. He said should the Coalition have won instead, he would have tried working with them too.

    So the pathways would include a few of the following:

    Greens
    Nationals
    S&F
    Sex Party
    DLP
    Vote 1 Local Jobs

    Failing that, there’s always the super-majority when passing through agreeable policies with the Liberals.

  16. [Helen Tzarimas ‏@Tzarimas 3m3 minutes ago
    The ABC understands the man behind the Sydney siege never owned a gun licence.
    #sydneysiege]

    As someone tweeted, basically all these journos are being briefed against the PM.

  17. Abbott has over-reached, once again, and consequently appears to be incompetent. Why do people want to “own” crime stories? It comes close to molesting the dead, figuratively speaking.

  18. AMA President ‏@amapresident · 1h1 hour ago
    GP copayment proposal is unacceptable. It does not recognise the contribution that GPs make. The AMA will be opposing the proposal #auspol

  19. Anyone else remember the “good old days” when the top dog would wait until all the speculation and discussion had ended and then step forward with authority to speak?

    Semms to have gone belly up with the Abbott, who’s so eager to be first on the scene.

  20. [BW

    Yes. Cobbling together the Greens and the Shooters and Fishers to get anything worthwhile across the line should be a hoot.

    You may think it a hoot but we have managed that in NSW.

    by Fran Barlow]

    Remind me how the shooting in NSW national parks is getting along … enjoying it, are we?

  21. [674
    confessions
    JD:

    Abbott is milking this obviously.]

    Or rather, he attempted to. But like the incompetent fool he is, he couldn’t do it right.

  22. “@lyndalcurtis: Yes, it’s true. After 21 years, I’m leaving the ABC. It’s with some sadness but it’s the right decision for my family.”

  23. Ch 10 5pm news is full-on about the blame game. They’re playing bits of Abbott’s speech – why was’t this or that done?

    Judiciary, as expected, blamed by Baird.

    Other things:

    – ch 10 second item was school massacre in Pakistan, showed John Kerry but no comment from Australian leadership

    – Howard played on 2CC Canberra saying this was a terrorist attack

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