Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The final Newspoll of the year is consistent with an overall trend that gives the government a lot to think about over the summer break.

What will presumably be the last Newspoll of the year records no change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Labor grabs the lead on the primary vote, moving up two points to 39% with the Coalition up one to 38% and the Greens down one to 12%. For the first time in a while, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are not appreciably worse than last time, his approval steady at 33% and disapproval up one to 58%. Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 37% and steady at 43%, and the size of his lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged, being 43-36 last time and 44-37 this time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,550 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. [“@KristyMayr7: BREAKING: Hostages are being forced to hold an ISIS flag at a Lindt cafe in Sydney’s Martin Place, as police man the doors outside #7NEWS”]

    Holy crap! What’s going on?!

  2. [The poll that counts is just that.]

    That’s true, but you need to be very careful about what it is measuring.

    Election results are not perfect representations of people’s support for political parties. Rather they are an interaction between these ideas and a specific electoral system. Candidate factors, ballot paper order, confusion about names, uncertainty about preferential voting are just some of the influences that cause departure from the ‘true’ support level. Some of these factors are random and will tend to even out in any one election. Some are systematic and will not (did the LDP really enjoy 9.5% support in NSW?)

    So if you want to make a claim about which part(ies) are going to shape government then absolutely ‘the poll that counts’ is the appropriate data source. But if you want to make claims about which political parties people support, then it is but one of a number of imperfect data sources.

  7. [31
    pedant

    Rocket Rocket @ 10: I wouldn’t give sixpence to an appeal for farmers. Too many of them are the ultimate job snobs in this country, whining, tax avoiding parasites. In my whole life I can’t recall a time when farmers weren’t complaining about their lot, and looking for a handout.]

    Speaking as somebody with a very big chunk of farmer/pastoralist in my family background, yes, that is exactly what they are like, hardcore agrarian socialists, and utterly shameless about it.

    I tried a few times in my younger days to point out the, er, inconsistencies in their tax-hating, gubbmint-money-loving position, and have been regarded a filthy communist traitor ever since. 😉

  9. Geebus, those poor people. I hope this siege ends peacefully.

    On another note, I expect that unless the division and misery seeded by the Abbott gov’t is not relieved, we will see greater and greater levels of social unrest.

  11. In all fairness, if the event in Martin Place is what it seems to be, then to suggest that a threat to human life is something Abbott would be gleeful about is pushing the envelope too far.

    While he will be able – perhaps – to display his statesmanship qualities again, I think he shot this bolt a long time ago.

    However, it is true to say that political leaders do seem to get some kind of kick in the polls when these kind of events happen. Anna Bligh did okay after the floods in Queensland but it still did not prevent a wipe out at the polls not so long after.

  12. “@moelleissy: The flag says ‘no god worthy of worship except Allah and Muhammad is his messenger” not an Isis flag but Islamic.”

  13. [59
    daretotread

    Briefly

    Jim Cairns whom you and Meher disparage]

    I have never mentioned Jim Cairns at all. I liked him, though, like others, I thought he was wrong to oppose Gough. He was a leader of the anti-war movement and deserves great respect for that. But he was not politically astute. No-one, not even Jim himself, would claim he was a clever politician who was likely to acquire and successfully use power for constructive purposes.

    Anyway, it’s good to see you’ve lost none of your capacity to misconstrue things nor to argue against observable reality.

  14. [74
    lizzie

    This government is ignorant, mean and vindictive. All preventive schemes are going.

    {snip}

    Slipping by with little notice, the government has not renewed funding for the Indigenous and Remote Eye Health Service (IRIS), a program that has co-ordinated the goodwill and hard work of ophthalmologists and optometrists to save and improve sight in the bush.]

    Disgusting stuff, and an incredibly bad decision that will only drive up longer term health and social costs. 🙁

    May the ghost of Fred Hollows haunt the dreams of every single member of the expenditure review committee.

  15. “@amynelmes: Siege at Martin Place with ISIS flag. Suspicious package found at Opera House, all evacuated #breaking #ninemsn #getoutofcity”

  16. At this point it might be worth recalling Abbott’s end of 2nd year report from the seminary, which described him as arrogant, wilful, and lacking compassion.

    They nailed him. No wonder he left.

  23. Socrates@119

    SGH

    Re: Sydney hostage drama

    A perfect distraction for an embattled government. Abbott would be loving this.


    I was just thinking that when I saw this story of terror raids in Sydney this morning.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-15/man-arrested-in-suspected-sydney-terror-raid-reports/5967148

    Hockey would be desperate for any diversion from his MYEFO figures announced today.

    Indeed. I wonder if the two are linked? It is possible that the raid has triggered this event.

  24. Dio

    I do not want to see the people get hurt and I agree it is risky to be too conspiratorial. However this time I agree with the conspiracists. This year Hockey has been conspicuous in delaying the MYEFO figures release until after parliment with most of the press gallery having gone home for christmas. He has sat on them since late November at least, because the news is not very good.

  25. Oops. Now fixed

    Geebus, those poor people. I hope this siege ends peacefully.

    On another note, I expect that unless the division and misery seeded by the Abbott gov’t is reversed, we will experience greater and greater levels of social unrest.

  28. I am wondering what the hostage-takers are hoping to get out of this. People’s safety is more important than sniping at the govt.

    (Although I appreciate being reminded that Abbott was judged to be “arrogant, wilful, and lacking compassion”. How come the churchmen (Pell) supported him then? Had they no judgement?)

  29. [This year Hockey has been conspicuous in delaying the MYEFO figures release until after parliment with most of the press gallery having gone home for christmas.]

    From memory MYEFO has been delivered after the rising of Parliament for years. Parliament didn’t even sit in december for the life of the last Parliament, a shameful record.

  32. And how to set the hares running……Channel 7 mouthpiece confidently says he saw the Isis flag in the window of said coffee place.

    Without making one effort to check such a fact, there is a mis-truth at birth.

    ABC have since been at pains to point out that the ‘flag’ – or is it a poster? contains the general message that God is great and Allah is his prophet.

    None of this condones this cowardly act, but you would hope the media would just be a little more conservative with the comments at this point.

    I think it is beyond cynicism to link this criminal act with some kind of planned diversion by Hockey and the government.

  33. “@peta_carlyon: County Court Judge finds Craig Thomson not guilty on 49 charges, says “regrettable” prosecution case was in error. Yet to hear other charges”

  34. Airspace over sydney shut down?

    Still taking off and landing according to the Planefinder app in my iPad.

    This is one of the problems of instant news. People can put anything up there unchecked.

  35. Socrates

    It’s more that the first though of some here is for the political Labor vs Liberal battle rather than the people involved and their safety.

  39. Speaking of bad news delayed (in this case not released at all until after a change of government) the Melbourne EW Link business case has been released, and it is as bad as feared, maybe worse. IT has been reported that:
    [Tolls for the East West Link would have generated just $112 million a year for the state of Victoria, meaning the $6.3 billion road would have taken 56 years to pay for, according to the road’s full business case.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/east-west-link-business-case-included-toll-increase-plans-20141214-1274ml.html

    This reporting UNDERSTATES the problem. This road would NEVER have paid for itself, not in 56 years, or 560 years.

    Interest payments, even at 4% per annum if borrowing as government, would cost at least $240 million per year on the $6 billion capital. The toll revenue of $110 million/year would not match the interest payments. So the debt capital would blow out more and more and never be repaid. The only solution was to slug Victorian taqxpayers around $5 billion, or Victorian motorists the same by tolling every other road in Melbourne. No wonder this croc was kept hidden.

    The claims about the project benefits are also dodgy. The travel time benefits of $2 billion (is that per year?) are far higher than the toll revenue ($112 million/annum). Why? Normally you can recover around 70% of the travel time benefit as toll revenue, given that not everybody is willing to pay tolls. So if there is a substantial travel time saving, why is toll revenue so low?

    if the travel time benefit is only $2 billion in total, that is less than haf the capitla costs ($6 billion), meaning this turkey project should never have started.

  40. Dio

    Agreed, I do not like that either. That attitude among the factional operators (faction first, party second, human beings third) was why I left the party.

  41. And, someone just pinched my thought on the Worry Big Time About a Terrorist Attack just a few weeks ago, and now we have the real thing, by the look of it, without one hint from the authorities that such could be on the cards.

    What, one might think, was the point of the hue and cry then and seemingly nothing now?

  43. Reporting here from Beecroft, Terror Central.

    Took a drive down the street where the arrest took place, but no sign of police.

    Just heard the news about Martin Plaza, right across the street from Channel 7 studios. Ray Hadley is going apeshit.

    Unbelievably, Chris Kenny rang into his show and revealed he had been in the Lindt Cafe (where the hostages are being held) only 3 or 4 minutes before the police started to arrive, so it sounds like he left the place and almost immediately afterwards the move was made.

    He told Hadley he was racking his brain to try to figure out who the hostage taker was, among the 20 or so people in the cafe.

  44. guytaur:

    [NSW Incident Alerts ‏@nswincidents 6m6 minutes ago
    Breaking: Reports that the Sydney Opera House has now been evacuated due to findings of a suspicious package. More to come.]

  46. Fess

    They are saying there is a suspicious parcel at the Opera House. It could well be nothing but the authorities are obviously worried its a coordinated attack rather than just one incident.

  48. [Ingrid Willinge ‏@IngridWillinge 2m2 minutes ago
    It looks like SYD Airport still operating normally BUT flight path for take off to the North takes planes further west #martinplacesiege]

  50. ABC reporting that Craig Thomson has successfully appealed 49 charges of misappropriating Health Services Union funds.

    The story cites ‘It is not yet clear what will happen with the remaining charges’.

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