Driven mostly by a dreadful result from top-tier pollster Galaxy, the Coalition suffers another substantial downturn in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, to the extent of returning to the worst depths of the post-budget slump. The change compared with last week’s reading amounts to a clear 1% transfer on the primary vote from the Coalition to Labor, translating into a gain of five for Labor on the seat projection including two seats in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. With new figures added from Ipsos and Essential Research, the leadership ratings show Tony Abbott continuing to plummet, while Bill Shorten matching his post-budget figures on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Abbott hasn’t quite reached his lowest ebb on net approval, but he’ll get there in very short order if the present trend continues.
Jackol@1694
I read that comment but doubt it would appeal to the major ‘groups’ (LNP, ALP, Greens) as they would presumably also be excluded from it. It is therefore unlikely.
I would be happy to be proven wrong.
bemused –
You do know that the LNP, ALP and Greens have already agreed to do this at the Federal level – it just hasn’t been legislated yet due to the LNP’s problems with the crossbench (and may, unfortunately, get lost in the dying throws of this dysfunctional government).
And, of course, the context of the current discussion was Victoria and measures proposed for the state LC – in my opinion Victoria should follow the NSW and Federal leads and move to abolish GTV as well, and if it has support at the Federal level I don’t see why it couldn’t get support at the State level.
dtt
OK, in that case I’ll slip Josh Frydenberg into Foreign Affairs and give his spot to O’Dwyer.
Helen and Bemused
I know it is a bit ‘tin foil hat” stuff but Cairns seemed to go whacky after he was hit in the head during a “burglary.” Not sure HOW the two relate but the whole Morosi whackery started about the same time. I suspect (no evidence) that some mind bending substances may have played a role.
Some info on Michael Clarke. My friend was on the same flight to Sydney and she said he looked like shite.
Walking like a star dropper up the bum was the description.
I don’t know what to say.
In relation to the Hanson-Young’s Great Deletion*, Hanson-Young’s values and principles have not changed, and WRT to her Shadow Spokesperson role, reality has got worse and not better for asylum seekers, so the reason must lie somewhere else.
It might be just a pragmatic decision by Milne’s Office that Hanson-Young resonates well with the rusted-on Greens* but is a total put-off to everyone else.
But then, do the Greens really practise hiding their electoral liabilities under a carpet?
Would not that be sordid politics rearing its ugly head?
*Noting that Hason-Young was allowed off her leash just last week for a fulmination.
**Then again she might have put a few Greens supporters off as well.
When I posted before, I was trying to remember the details of that whack on the head, ddt. I do think it was after that that he began behaving oddly.
Despite all his faults, he will always be a Labor hero for me. He awakened in me a sense of justice and a suspicion of the establishment view of the world. The first time I marched behind him at a moratorium, I had been warned by my school principal that I could face dismissal if I took the day off school to attend the protest. I marched any way – and so many other teachers marched with me that the government could not possibly act against us.
“based on these numbers”
“but we will legislate a price on carbon”
they made the rules, let em suffer.
BBC review of Abbott year
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-30410255
[1691
victoria
briefly
This will necessarily be negative for wider incomes, spending, demand, employment and fiscal collections. The LNP are trying to shrink the public sector. What they will achieve is likely to shrink the economy instead.
Surely the LNP realise this?]
Maybe. Maybe they are prepared to risk it in order to implement the IPA/classical agenda.
I tend to think they are not sure how to respond to the idea that the economy will not expand of its own accord. But they have some hunches.
They believe that if the public sector is reduced, the private sector will necessarily expand to absorb the same economic resources and that the economy will be inherently “stronger” as a result.
They believe that private savings are the only source of “useful” investment and that it’s preferable to promote private savings (both public and private) rather than (especially public or in-common) investment and/or consumption.
(In their classical formulations, these categories obscure more than they reveal, in my opinion. They do not understand the nature and origin of savings, for example. They simply believe savings, left alone, flow to the just, who should be allowed to hoard them.)
They also believe that steps to distribute income (and savings) away from the most “productive” (successful, private) hands to the inherently “less productive” public (mutual or in-common) hands encourages dependency and inefficiency.
They also think it is unjust to appropriate incomes and/or wealth from one party and re-allocate these to others. It is an idea that is wholly repugnant to them. They have sets of arguments that support their moral world-view. So they are prepared to accept lower living standards across the economy. They think this is not only necessary, but just.
They also kid themselves that in the long run the economy will be stronger for being made “tougher”. This amounts in practice to the contradictory belief that an economy can be made larger while also being made smaller. There is always a Golden Age somewhere they can invoke to support these beliefs.
Ostensibly, they think the economy works best this way. It is re-fashioned classicism/Austrian austerity/monetarist dreaming. It’s not economics. It’s a Midas philosophy in disguise. It carries within it a whole lot of misunderstandings about production, income, capital and dynamism.
This leads to my personal maxim…”Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal Government”….
Laurie Oakes yesterday
[ONE of prime minister John Gorton’s first acts after surviving a leadership challenge in 1969 was to dump Dudley Erwin as air minister. That night I phoned Erwin to ask why he had been sacked.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/laurie-oakes-the-peta-factor-is-a-real-test-for-abbott/story-fni0fha6-1227154449868
Jackol@1702
No, I wasn’t aware of that. What is your source?
I had understood that, with the sort of Senate Federally, and Upper House in Vic, that any such agreement would probably only emerge when the nutters were no longer in a position to retaliate, i.e. close to the election. I was not aware of anything to the contrary.
[My friend was on the same flight to Sydney and she said he looked like shite.]
He said yesterday after the game he would probably be out for the rest of the test matches.
briefly
Appreciate your insights. Quite sobering. 🙁
daretotread@1704
That assault occurred in 1969 and IIRC, it was some men who gatecrashed a party at his home. It was politically motivated. Cairns was struck on the head with a statue or some such object and thereafter suffered repeated severe headaches and other symptoms periodically.
Cairns, like Calwell, forgave his attackers and showed concern about their welfare.
Yes, that attack did have a lasting effect and the effects may have worsened over time.
Morosi came years after that attack and who knows whether mind bending substances were part of that relationship. Certainly, I was no longer seeing the Jim Cairns that I had known.
BTW, Cairns was very popular among ALP members who were not aligned with the Hartley/Crawford Victorian ‘Left’. I suppose that makes them on the ‘right’, although few thought of themselves as such. They prevailed upon Cairns not to lend any support to those troglodytes when Federal Intervention occurred in 1970. Joan Child was one who springs to mind.
[The Geek Better and more efficient Govt services with fewer and fewer staff and smaller budgets. It is the Great Big #VoodooMagicPudding]
Geez, Ainsley Gotto’s Google Image page pulls out some interesting photographs.
And they’re not all of Ainsley Gotto.
bemused –
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/09/jscem-interim-report-on-senate-reform/
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/05/jscem-recommends-optional-preferential-voting-for-the-senate.html
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2014/s4001746.htm
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-crossbench-revolt-if-group-voting-tickets-abolished-20140620-3ajqk.html
http://australianpolitics.com/2014/05/09/changes-to-senate-voting-methods-recommended-by-committee-liberals-alp-and-greens-agree-to-stamp-out-preference-gaming.html
Let me know if you need more links.
That’s a weird collection – there’s even a fruit bat!
confessions
Posted Sunday, December 14, 2014 at 2:04 pm
He said yesterday after the game he would probably be out for the rest of the test matches.
I think that’s a definite. He was driven to play this last one.
I often wonder about those who talk down a person who has athletic skill. Muscle memory, ability and concentration are virtues. Maybe those who critisise just were crap at it.
[It is in Labor’s interest for Abbott to stay. It is in the national interest for Abbott to go. It depends on which of those things you rate higher.]
Socrates @1603,
I’m skeptical of the proposition that if Abbott goes we’ll get a better government. Turnbull for one thing is on an ideological blinder with his fraudband scheme. He’s wrecking the NBN and every time he’s challenged he just digs in deeper. Do you really expect that to change? And who would get senior Ministries in an Abbott-free government? Who is there that would survive the inevitable internal politics that actually has a sensible, moderate, evidence based view of policy?
I don’t believe much will change. The Liberals are full of climate deniers and extremists of every stripe. The moderates don’t have much chance of getting into a new Ministry even under a supposedly moderate Turnbull (who will have to pay the piper).
In the end I don’t think it will make much difference. We’re better off gritting our teeth with Abbott and making sure the whole lot of them are gone in 2016.
And btw, Paul Fletcher as comms minister isn’t going to change their ongoing disaster in this portfolio.
Annabel discusses the seating arrangements for the Cabinet’s Christmas Dinner. 😀
[How to come up with a seating arrangement that maximises the chance of peace?
If an elaborate table decoration is placed in the sightline between Peta Credlin and Julie Bishop, would that do it? Would it be too outrageous simply to give Defence Minister David Johnston the wrong address for the party?
And is Christopher Pyne old enough to have his own mobile phone?]
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/will-tony-abbotts-christmas-regifting-run-into-festive-minefield-20141213-125wwp.html
[1714
victoria]
So many contradictory things are fused together in the LNP mind. Austerity is good for those who endure it (and therefore measures to alleviate it will fail); inequality is not only inevitable but to be welcomed because it affirms the triumph of individualism; authority is the wholly natural privilege of the wealthy; success stems from acceptance of hierarchy and deference to power (and therefore, the greater the power, the greater will be rewards of obedience).
briefly
For all of labor’s faults, there was a semblance of reform and progression in their governance.
The coalition’s philosophy is utter crap!
Jackol@1718
I may be missing something, but a quick scan of those indicates that it is only a committee recommendation and that is a bit short of a government introducing legislation.
The fourth of those points to the likely reaction of cross benchers and I think that will deter the govt from any legislation until very close to an election.
But thanks for the links, I was not across that detail.
[We’re better off gritting our teeth with Abbott and making sure the whole lot of them are gone in 2016.]
Or sooner. Via an election, preferably a DD.
If we are going to do a reset, let’s do it properly.
[1725
victoria
briefly
For all of labor’s faults, there was a semblance of reform and progression in their governance.
The coalition’s philosophy is utter crap!]
Absolutely. Because their world view demands they defend – even to extend – privilege, it’s necessary for them to maintain a facade. They are always go out in disguise.
bemused –
It’s more than “only a committee recommendation”, because the position of the LNP, ALP and Greens has been made clear.
I already pointed out that there has not been legislation put to the House yet to do this, although, clearly, at the time that Tony Smith and Alan Griffin stood together outside of parliament house the expectation was that there would be legislation forthcoming and that it would be supported by the LNP, ALP and Greens – that was my point, that this discussion has already been had at the Federal level, and at least back in May there was a consensus from the very groups that you thought would not be supporting such a change.
If they can agree to these changes Federally I don’t see why they can’t agree to equivalent change in Victoria.
And I already acknowledged that the LNP had obviously deferred the relevant legislation to avoid offending the crossbench. Again, if you would only read the comments that you respond to we could skip all this nonsense.
Jackol@1729
Jackol, we seem to be mostly in agreement and I think I only really differ in my scepticism, not the desirability.
I will believe it when I see the legislation.
briefly
Posted Sunday, December 14, 2014 at 2:41 pm
[For all of labor’s faults, there was a semblance of reform and progression in their governance.
The coalition’s philosophy is utter crap!
Absolutely. Because their world view demands they defend – even to extend – privilege, it’s necessary for them to maintain a facade. They are always go out in disguise.]
I have had arguments with workers on the tools that make more sense that that.
Privilege is what you can get away with, some let you know you are lower life forms, some treat you well. All know what it costs.
[1731
boomy1]
I’m saying the LNP most-oft go out in disguise. They practice concealment. They do it so naturally they’re not even aware of it, which explains why Abbott seems not to understand that he has actually lied repeatedly in relation to social programs and the budget.
Do you disagree?
Greetings bludgers…
Guytaur’s link at 1709
[It is not unusual for prime ministers to struggle in their first term, says lecturer at the School of Political and Social Inquiry at Monash University, Dr Zareh Ghazarian…
“One of Australia’s most successful prime ministers in terms of winning elections was (conservative) John Howard but he had a horrid first term in government,” he says.]
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-30410255
Howard did have a bout weakness in net-satisfaction ratings toward middle-end of his first term.
But at the same time in PM-ship, Howard’s average net satisfaction rating was +24; Abbott’s is -15. A fair whack of difference.
[Houses compulsorily acquired to build Melbourne’s stalled East West Link project could be used for needy families at Christmas.
Work on the $6.8bn road tunnel project has been halted by the new Labor government.
The premier, Daniel Andrews, says the Victorian government will look at ways to use houses already emptied in preparation for the tunnel.
“I’d like people who want to move back into those homes be given an option to do just that,” he said on Sunday.
“If people choose, having moved on, to not come back to those homes, then I know there are many, many needy families across our community, particularly at this time of year.”
Andrews said using the homes to house needy families at Christmas would be good for them and the community.
The East West Link business case documents will be released to the media in a lock-up at 9.30am on Monday, before being made public shortly afterwards.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/14/houses-acquired-for-melbournes-east-west-link-to-be-offered-to-needy-for-christmas
[1710
briefly
1691
victoria
briefly
This will necessarily be negative for wider incomes, spending, demand, employment and fiscal collections. The LNP are trying to shrink the public sector. What they will achieve is likely to shrink the economy instead.
Surely the LNP realise this?
Maybe. Maybe they are prepared to risk it in order to implement the IPA/classical agenda.]
The rich can afford to take a financial haircut in the short term, if it helps them achieve their longer term goal of reducing the baseline economic and political bargaining power of the rest of us.
I am not convinced this government and its backers are not doing this deliberately, to some extent at least, albeit in a very cack-handed and unintentionally revealing manner. They probably were aiming for a mild downturn, for a year or two, just enough to turn the screws on the serfs and public services, but not enough to seriously stuff the underlying economic situation. They then could have pinned the blame on Labor and portrayed themselves as having done the hard yards to rescue and restore the economy, magically just in time for the next election.
But they forked up both the politics and economics of it big time.
@1732 briefly
Politics has changed even in my lifetime.I vote Labor yet I once voted Green.
I realised a vote for the Greens was embracing powerlessness.
So I joined the ALP. Still don’t feel I fit exactly because maybe I’m a hippy. Yet I always think they can win and I feel my vote counts. Something to be said about a non-wasted vote.
Because no matter what a sad bastard one might be, a light on a hill is better than the complete lack of vision the punishers and straiteners would drag us down to be.
Hi Laocoon
How have you been?
Lizzie
I am looking forward to seeing the business case for east west link
Hey Victoria
Am well thank you. Just been too busy working away to post here – but have had managed to sneak occasional look. Big change in the year’s political fortunes.
Trust you are keeping well
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/14/houses-acquired-for-melbournes-east-west-link-to-be-offered-to-needy-for-christmas
Nice compare and contrast of values with the previous Lib government and their backers. 🙂
laocoon
Good to hear you are well. Being busy keeps you out of mischief no doubt. 🙂
All good on my end. The political state of play is certainly keeping us on our collective toes!
We see the Coalition struggling to deal with economic matters because essentially economics of State is secondary to their ideas of power and class (I use both words for simplicity – not accuracy). Their ideology is based on these two things first and foremost and they formulate their economic ideas around that – bastardising any economic theory that can be forced into their square social (cultural?) theory holes.
This is being generous. The other possibility is that they are merely interested in staying in power and will do whatever they can to keep the other mob out – supporting (toadying to) whatever social group that will assist them in that crusade and adopting their various self interested policy preferences. Hence a basket case of policies. Its why they dont have a ‘narrative’ or at least one that is palatable.
Victoria
Yes, a nice little civil war brewing; suspect the government cant bring the summer break on soon enough
Laocoon
Indeed. Couldnt happen to a nicer bunch. 😀
Well hello Laocoon!
Another dreadful story of the homicidal consequences of Australia’s attempts to bar entry to IMAs.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/12/13/taliban-targets-afghan-family-scott-morrison-stalls/14183892001364#.VI0R_LQaySN
bemused 1730 – my Dad knew Jim and Gwen though I never met them. He told me that Jim held no grudge against his assailants in the end, but remained bitter that in Australia such a thing could happen to you just because of your political beliefs. And worse, that your family suffered also because of those beliefs.
boomy1@1736
Well, welcome to the club!
Is there anyone who does fit ‘exactly’? We are all individuals and come together in the service greater than any of us. It is unrealistic to expect the collective wisdom of many to align exactly with your opinions exactly.
Enjoy making your contributions and challenging anything you don’t agree with.
Turnbull has been taking out the garbage again. This time on a Sunday. Have any of you noticed?
Tens of billions tossed away. Costliest mistake this government has made. And where is the outrage?
Laocoon
Welcome baaaack. Re “…suspect the government cant bring the summer break on soon enough” . On the other hand the summer break may have Tones discovering that….
[Idle hands are the devil’s workshop]