The latest result from Essential Research has both major parties a point down on the primary vote, in both cases from 40% to 39%. This makes room for increases of one point for the Greens and two points to others, both now at 10%, while Palmer United is now at 2%, which I believe to be a new low. Also featured are Essential Research’s regular monthly personal ratings, which offer yet another belting for Tony Abbott, who is down seven points on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 55%. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and up one on disapproval to 39%, and has opened up a 36-31 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 36-34 last time.
There’s also results on how various politicians have performed over the past year, which are predictable in direction but very interesting in degree. Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and, more excusably, Christine Milne have equally poor net ratings of minus 22%, minus 24% and minus 23% respectively (Milne having an undecided rating quite a bit higher than the other two). The big eye-openers are Clive Palmer at minus 50% and Julie Bishop at plus 28%. Rather less interestingly, Bill Shorten is at minus 5%.
The poll also finds the issues respondents most want addressed over the coming year are improving the health system and reducing unemployment, with less concern for public transport investment, environmental protection, investment in roads and, in last place, free trade agreements. Respondents also deem it to have been a bad year for pretty much everything, most especially “Australian politics in general” at minus 53% (which is still an improvement on minus 62% last year”), the only exceptions being large companies and corporations (plus 14%) and “you and your family overall” (plus 3%).
A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage records weaker support than the particularly strong showing in June, at 55% (down five) with 32% opposed (up four).
[Party doesn’t reflect your values if you are embarrassed by your past votes for Howard and Abbott.]
I get embarrassed when they go to far… aka Work Choices. I hold medicare as a fundamental of Australian life, even though I sit on the right on most issues.
One should welcome Rummel to the fold,
Welcome Rummel
rummell
We are all welcoming you and your new attitude!
There are none so blind as they who will not see and we are pleased with your new stance.
rummel – the Liberal Party fundamentally believes in the values expressed by WorkChoices and in the destruction of Medicare.
Anyway, I expect the poll to continue to slide for the Libs as people like my self are now jumping ship.
Have a nice night.
BK,
Well spotted re Julie’s $200m bottle of wine for Peru.
https://mail.google.com/mail/ca/u/0/?shva=1#inbox/14a32fe05ff2aaf0
Hope this works from Shorten wanting us to chip in $5.00 for a sticker to put on your car.
rummel
That is a big move by you and I am glad you reached that conclusion.
Jimmy Doyle
Just caught up with your comment re Shorten on the Project.
Cheers
rummel
Nice to see that you are back.
Good rain about now ought to mean some good sleeps for now.
Not so sure about what might happen when it gets hot and dry…
[ Consumers have been pessimistic for the last ten months now. ]
One of the interesting things about “confidence” is how much it affected Australia sailing through the GFC without too much damage.
The Govt appeared to be decisive, took action, explained what they were doing and why, AND followed through on their undertakings. People had confidence that they would and kept spending so retail stayed afloat AND that was something that directly supported employment.
Remember at the time the Libs were calling it waste when the Govt followed through on programs after it appeared the worst of the GFC was over??
This lot have lied, made cuts that are manifestly unfair and dont make sense in terms of their declared objectives, lied about lying, and abandoned support for employment. Consumer confidence drops as a result and the first place we see that reflected is in retail which WILL lead to job losses and a further erosion of confidence.
And all this has been prompted by ideology, not an external shock to the economy. Yup, the mining boom is ending and thats hitting revenue, but there were lots of other things this lot could have done in light of that. They chose what they have done, not been forced to it.
As an alternative to MTBW’s mail attachment:
http://www.savemedicare.org.au/
Re 480 Jimmy
We’re not all like that mate…. Some of us continue to date the collapse in consumer confidence from September 2013. Which is precisely when it started. Exacerbated in May 2014.
Too many of my peers (calling Bill Evans a peer is slightly inflating my own position, though he is my direct supervisor’s peer) tend to look only at the headline income results and averages – and in doing so forget to consider things like income distribution.
Rates Analyst @ 513 – thanks for your response. I fully accept that there are other models of economics that are more reflective of reality. My grievance is solely reserved for the purveyors of neo-classical and neo-liberal economics.
One of the main problems with the Abbott Government is that the media is filled with sycophants. So they thought the Australian people would fall for their Bull Dust
MTBW@507
link doesn’t work – takes me to my gmail account.
Labor prepares to fight as inner city swings green
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/labor-prepares-to-fight-as-inner-city-swings-green-20141210-1244p8.html
One of my friends runs a very successful retail shop in Fremantle. Clothing, jewellery, ornaments etc. Sales have significantly slowed over the last year, without any particular identifiable cause. Her customers are very loyal, but they aint buying much nowadays…she’s a very savvy, hard working shop owner who rarely puts a foot wrong.
don
This is what email says
[By now you’ll have heard Tony Abbott’s claims that the GP tax is dead. I doubt you’re fooled by the news, but not only is that untrue, his solution is to bring in his tax by stealth.
It’s up to you and I to make sure everyone knows he’s still trying to destroy Medicare. And it’s up to you and I to stop him.
We can show him we won’t stand for it by getting these stickers on cars and in windows right across the country. Let’s make sure he can’t travel on any road in Australia without seeing one of these on the back of the car in front of him. Contribute $15 and get a sticker to put on your car today.
Tony Abbott can’t get his tax through Parliament so instead he decided to sneak past Parliament by cutting the payment to GPs by $5 per consultation and pressuring them to charge patients more to make up the difference.
Tony Abbott is committed to taking Medicare apart by removing free access to a GP and ending access to universal healthcare in this country.
It’s up to us to protect all Australians from Tony Abbott’s dishonest attempt to stand between them and a trip to their doctor.
We can do this by getting the word out and showing the Government that Australians don’t want this tax — whether its a $7 GP Tax or a $5 GP Tax by stealth.
This year thousands of people have put these bumper sticker on cars and in windows around the country. Let’s keep going and make this message impossible to ignore.
Can you contribute just $15 to cover the costs of sending you a sticker and help get them out across the country as soon as we can? Let us know if you want one now and we’ll be sending them out on Friday.
By putting it on your car, on your window or anywhere visible, you’ll be helping send a clear signal to this Government. No GP Tax in any form or by any means.
If we weren’t making an impact Tony Abbott wouldn’t have resorted to his GP Tax by stealth.
Tony Abbott is under pressure. And by sending him a clear message, we can put the pressure on even further: no GP Tax full stop.
Click here to contribute $15 and we’ll send you a sticker straight away for you so you can make a stand against this Government’s GP tax.
Labor built Medicare and with your help we will defend it.
Thanks for standing with me on this,
Bill
PS Tony Abbott is trying to get this tax in by stealth and just before Christmas so no-one will notice. Let’s make sure he realises Australians won’t be tricked into taking his unfair GP tax lying down. Contribute here to get your sticker today.]
[according to Bill Evans, the chief economist at Westpac who has been running the survey for years, consumers are clearly overreacting to economic conditions.]
Overreacting! With the Abbott opposition and now government running continuous rhetoric on a debt & deficit disaster & pending economic armageddon for 3-4 years what do economists expect? Just as well I knew it was all crap.
Good grief Dutton. PvO pulls him up for his repeating the claim the AMA was consulted re the changes by reminding him the AMA said they hadn’t been. Waffling ensues then mentions having meetings and dinner with some guy “….after the May budget”.
And SA is closing some of its power stations because of renewables. Now how about the rest of the country following us?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-10/agl-to-mothball-half-sa-torrens-island-power-plant-jobs-threat/5958604
Spot on Imacca @ 511
Abbott talks about debt and future generations yet by stealth, he’s dismantling everything they’ll need…. a healthy environment, renewable energy, manufacturing, education, public transport, universal health, and the NBN. He talks about border security yet cuts foreign aid. He talks about freedoms, yet takes them away. He talks about teams but divides the nation. He champions a medical research fund yet quashes all science and decimates the CSIRO. The man is a liar, a cheat, a fraud and fear monger, a wrecking ball serving only himself and his mendacious ideology.
Mark my words the debt and deficit will be manipulated, falsified and exaggerated to justify the destruction of everything the labour movement has worked for… and he hasn’t even started on tax and workplace relations.
The nation is in a whole heap of trouble.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Did you manage to catch Stephen Chu at the National Press Club today ? If not then it’s well worth watching the video of it.
mikehilliard
They are not overreacting to economic conditions – they ARE reacting to the Abbott government and what it is and might bring them.
don@516
MTBW has been told on numerous occasions that we cannot access her gmail inbox unless she gives us her account name and password. 😉
She has to date refused to do so. 😐
victoria@517
There is a recount being conducted so there is yet a slender hope that both of Labors enemies will be vanquished, Libs and Greens.
bemused @ 527 – as much as I’d love for Labor to win in Prahran, I think the Greens are home and hosed.
BK
Exactly. Sort of runs contrary to Abbott’s claim that voting in a Liberal government would be “an instantaneous adrenaline charge in our economy”, more like chloroform.
Interesting bit of News, missed by most media outlets. Thanks Guardian.
[The announcement also revealed that the prime minister’s department would take over the development of any post-2020 emissions reduction targets that Australia might make before next year’s United Nations climate talks in Paris.]
Seems Abbott does not trust Julie Bishop to develop international climate policy anymore. I wonder why?
Wouldn’t trust Rummel’s about-face as far as I could kick him.
kezza2 @531
Yeah.
I’m intrigued that Milne would fare as well. 531 you are one to judge………..
BK:
[It’s not barnacle removal that the good ship Liberal needs, it’s a complete defoulment!]
That’s OK, the Liberals are experts are defoulment!
… oh, wait – no, sorry, that’s refoulement. My mistake.
caf – I’d like to refoule this government somewhere hot, unpleasant, and below ground.
Robt Doyle Former Lib leader attacks Looney Right in party
________________
The Lord Mayor Doyle(a small “l” lib) has attacked the Looney Right in his party,saying Victoria is a centre-Left state and the far right in the Party are a problem He means that …people like Bernie Finna and Kevin Andrews(are as much DLP-Right to Lifers and based on the Catholic Right as Libs )
Oddly if the Libs had given their Prefs to the Greens the Greens would have captured three more Labor seats in inner Melbourne,and Left the new Labor Govt with just 44 seats in a House of 88…a minority Govt in effect..
That would have been a clever strategy for the Libs,which would have forced Labor to govern with the asupport of 5 Greens
But no…the Santamaria wing of the Liberals hate the Greens on matters to do with SS-Marriage/Abortion/Euthenesia
…matters of little concern to many Libs…will the Libs wake up to the Catholic Right’s influence inside the party.?
..shades of 1955 in Melb
Doyle is on to something…can he kick the DLP-Libs out ?
Over here in WA the Tory newsletter, aka The West Australian, was running stories before the 2013 election about how the prospect of Abbott PM was already boosting local business confidence.
I like to think it had more to do with the feel good factor of Fremantle’s run to the AFL finals.
And it looks like both things ended in years.
Who could forget Abbott’s declarations that Australia was open for business?
Classic case of be careful what you wish for.
…. Ended in tears …
I am sure most people would guess that
Read twice then hit post…
roosmcg
Yeah. The Brown and Gold destroyed Western Australia’s economy.
deblonay@536
Hey, that suggestion for the Libs preferences would have been real good.
Minority Labor Govt depending on LOONS.
Worked real well in Tasmania and Canberra didn’t it?
victoria@415
I haven’t really thought about it. I’m not sure yet that it is more likely: we’ve just seen one in Victoria but that was for entirely natural reasons and totally predictable.
I do think that big data and rapid communication make it easier for oppositions to be competitive, but that doesn’t explain Rudd’s enormous poll leads in 2008-9 unless it’s assumed that the Liberals were ignoring evidence about what they needed to do.
So consumer confidence has been crap for the past 10 months. Would February be when the Libs were starting to soften us up and drop hints about the coming budget ?
[ kezza2
Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2014 at 7:57 pm | PERMALINK
Wouldn’t trust Rummel’s about-face as far as I could kick him.]
Yep. He will change sides a dozen times before the next election.
I think that Bill Evans, chief neoclassical economist at Westpac, does not sufficiently credit the following economic conditions: falling real wages, over-valued and still rising house prices, falling investment in education and science, government attempts to implement a regressive budget which further constrains consumer spending power.
His income is high enough to insulate himself personally from those conditions but intellectual rigour and professional integrity demand that he analyze them.
Poroti – spot on. Even the co-payment was being test run and then denied etc.
rua
[The announcement also revealed that the prime minister’s department would take over the development of any post-2020 emissions reduction targets]
PM&C has been hugely expanded since Tones got in.
Such awful news about the Perth 2yo who went missing yesterday afternoon, sparking a community wide search for him overnight and into this morning (I was getting Fb messages about the search effort as recently as just before lunch), found dead in a nearby lake. He was autistic and got out of the house because a tradie left the front door open.
His parents are obviously devastated.
Boerwar
you are much maligned.
I just laughed out loud
The hawks certainly broke some hearts that day
Catherine King really is an a grade moron. She wants to keep the medical fund but hasn’t the faintest idea how she intends to pay for it. I guess ‘consolidated revenue’ means debt. What kind of fantasyland does she live in?
When the Government points out that the co-payment will at least pay for the new $20 billion medical research fund, Labor health spokeswoman Catherine King tells the Government to keep the fund but ditch the tax to pay for it, claiming the Government could somehow “find the money from consolidated revenue”. You know, the great big money pot that magically refills?
[Would February be when the Libs were starting to soften us up and drop hints about the coming budget ?]
Actually that timing makes sense. They spent the rest of 2013 in an information void, with Abbott and senior ministers barely visible. February was when the boo hiss information drip started to crank up from Hockey:
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=joe+hockey+budget+emergency&es_sm=93&biw=1242&bih=585&source=lnt&tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_min%3A1%2F01%2F2014%2Ccd_max%3A31%2F03%2F2014&tbm=#tbs=cdr:1%2Ccd_min:1%2F01%2F2014%2Ccd_max:31%2F03%2F2014&q=joe+hockey+budget+