Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Another fortnight, another dire Newspoll for Tony Abbott.

The fortnightly Newspoll in The Australian brings the government little respite, Labor’s lead down from the 55-45 blowout last time to 54-46, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up two). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up two to 57%, while Bill Shorten’s remain broadly stable as they have for so long, with approval unchanged at 39% and disapproval up two to 43%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister widens just slightly from 43-37 to 43-36.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Morgan. This has the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37.5%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to another new low of 2%. Two-party preferred moves two points in the Coalition’s favour on the respondent-allocated measure, from 55.5-44.5 to 53.5-46.5, and previous-election preferences moves one point from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research ticks a point in Labor’s favour, from 52-48 to 53-47, with the major parties tied at 40% on the primary vote (Labor up a point, the Coalition steady), the Greens down one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 3%. Further questions:

• Opinion on the balance of power in the Senate is found to be unchanged since July in being slightly favourable, with 37% reckoning it good for democracy, 29% bad and 18% indifferent. When asked if the Senate has been right to block or reject various items of legislation, yes outpolls no in every case.

• A little surprisingly (to me at least), 42% think the 1.5% pay increase for defence personnel fair, versus 47% for unfair.

• Fifty-six per cent disagree with the Prime Minister’s contention that his government has “fundamentally kept faith with the Australian people” with respect to election promises, with 31% in agreement. Opinion is inevitably divided along party lines, but Greens voters are found to be even more negative than Labor ones, albeit that the sample for the latter is extremely small.

• As Essential does from time to time, respondents were asked for their view on various attributes with respect to the two leaders. The last time this was done was at the height of the Coalition’s post-budget poll collapse, and the latest survey finds Tony Abbott’s position very slightly improved, most noticeably with respect to “hard-working” (up five to 62%) and “good in a crisis” (up seven to 42%), the latter being an interesting bit of residue from his now vanishing poll recovery on the back of MH17 and terrorism concerns. However, he has dropped a further four points on “visionary”, to 27%. Reflecting his long-standing poll stasis, Bill Shorten’s readings are little changed, although he is down five on “a capable leader” to 46%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,484 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. BK

    Abbott will be, like, just so solly.

    The beauty of what has happened is that Abbott will have to give Johnston something by way of demonstrating that Abbott really values him and is loyal to him and, and, and…

    Hey.

    Tim Fischer must be just about sick of being Australia’s ambassador to Ireland and the Holy See*.

    *I know, I know. Don’t even ask.

  3. BW,

    Looks like an inside job.

    Laura Tingle wrote recently that the pointy heads in Defence wanted the subs built in Australia and that their track record of getting what they want is unblemished.

    Given Johnston’s canoe comment last week, well join the dots………

  7. [IMHO, if it looks like a crook, waddles like a crook, and quacks like a crook, it is a crook.]

    At the very least Nalder seems to be afflicted with the standard Liberal entitlement factor that colours so many of them once they get into parliament, and into the ministry.

  10. zoomster

    You are right. It is now John McCarthy.

    If Abbott wants the possie for a second hand defence minister, McCarthy will get the heave ho.

  11. WB 1302

    McGovern.

    Mike McGovern; a friend of Kinky Friedman (author, musician, Texan politician of both sides of politics).

    The drink ‘Vodka McGovern’ was named after him and goes down well with Chicken McGovern.

  17. [Simon Banks Tonight there appears to be open warfare between the PMO and the Defence Minister’s office with staff being thrown overboard]

  26. It is easy to understand why our Minister for War:

    (1) got us into an unwinnable war in which we are allied with the evil Iran, the evil PKK, the evil Assad, and the naughty johnnies who stole 50,000 worth of ghost soldiers’ pay.

    (2) Told the sojers that they would be better off with pay increases that are less than rate of inflation.

    (3) Can’t get the Air Warfare Destroyer companies to stop bitching and blaming each other for $600 million worth of cockups and 24 month delays.

    (4) Talked up the ASC by telling everyone that they could not build a canoe.

    Point (4) was especially egregious, IMHO.

    The ASC could easily build a canoe that:

    (1) Was four years late at delivery.
    (2) Has to be tied to the wharf to stop it sinking.
    (3) Doesn’t work.
    (4) Costs twice as much as it should to build.
    (5) Costs half as much as the purchase price of a perfectly good off-the-shelf new canoe to maintain every year.

  30. Boerwar:

    Our Shire sent the President and 3 staff to a recently held tourism awards dinner in Perth. A table of 10 reportedly cost $8000, so there’s $3200 cost to ratepayers right there for 4 people. Was this wrong?

    I’m not saying Johnston did the right thing, just pointing out that things can be more nuanced than the media makes out. And I say this from the local media reportage of the 4 people the Shire paid for to go to the dinner.

  33. BK

    Pissing off 100% of your workforce deliberately and with evident malice is not really a good HR plan, IMHO.

    I am sure that Abetz has an APS pay and conditions Plan B in his cupboard, right next to his Obersturmmfuehrer’s uniform.

  39. [Bill Shorten: “Leigh, I am not going to answer in three word slogans”.
    Leigh Sales: “Well what is your plan?
    Bill Shorten: “Go for growth”]

    Bill is getting somewhat a reputation for his “Zingers” – they make people groan, but he can laugh it off as they are all scripted. It is a way of getting some mindshare.

  42. Just saw this post on facebook —

    [Congrats to Premier Dan Andrews on having the most diverse Cabinet in Australia with a record 9/22 (41%) women Cabinet Ministers, plus the state (if not the nation’s) first two Muslim Ministers in John Eren & Adem Somyurek. Terrific to see Jaala Pulford & Jane Garrett promoted. Hoping Danielle Green’s talents are still utilised. (Also an update on overall women – if the ALP wins all undecided seats, it will have 26 women (43%) in a 61 member Caucus. If not, the 26 women in a 58 member Caucus would represent 45%…]

  48. [The rule of thumb in Australian politics has been that voters are reluctant to throw out governments after a single term. And if they do, it’s during a major crisis.

    Perhaps that’s a measure of Australians’ inherent conservatism. After all, Australia has had just seven changes of federal government since the end of the Second World War, compared to more than 60 in Italy. Or maybe it’s just Australia’s egalitarian sense of a fair go – a belief that everyone deserves a second chance no matter how inglorious the first.]

    https://theconversation.com/one-down-two-to-go-labor-revival-puts-incumbents-on-edge-34919

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