The fortnightly Newspoll in The Australian brings the government little respite, Labor’s lead down from the 55-45 blowout last time to 54-46, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up two). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up two to 57%, while Bill Shorten’s remain broadly stable as they have for so long, with approval unchanged at 39% and disapproval up two to 43%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister widens just slightly from 43-37 to 43-36.
Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Morgan. This has the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37.5%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to another new low of 2%. Two-party preferred moves two points in the Coalition’s favour on the respondent-allocated measure, from 55.5-44.5 to 53.5-46.5, and previous-election preferences moves one point from 54-46 to 53-47.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research ticks a point in Labor’s favour, from 52-48 to 53-47, with the major parties tied at 40% on the primary vote (Labor up a point, the Coalition steady), the Greens down one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 3%. Further questions:
• Opinion on the balance of power in the Senate is found to be unchanged since July in being slightly favourable, with 37% reckoning it good for democracy, 29% bad and 18% indifferent. When asked if the Senate has been right to block or reject various items of legislation, yes outpolls no in every case.
• A little surprisingly (to me at least), 42% think the 1.5% pay increase for defence personnel fair, versus 47% for unfair.
• Fifty-six per cent disagree with the Prime Minister’s contention that his government has “fundamentally kept faith with the Australian people” with respect to election promises, with 31% in agreement. Opinion is inevitably divided along party lines, but Greens voters are found to be even more negative than Labor ones, albeit that the sample for the latter is extremely small.
• As Essential does from time to time, respondents were asked for their view on various attributes with respect to the two leaders. The last time this was done was at the height of the Coalition’s post-budget poll collapse, and the latest survey finds Tony Abbott’s position very slightly improved, most noticeably with respect to “hard-working” (up five to 62%) and “good in a crisis” (up seven to 42%), the latter being an interesting bit of residue from his now vanishing poll recovery on the back of MH17 and terrorism concerns. However, he has dropped a further four points on “visionary”, to 27%. Reflecting his long-standing poll stasis, Bill Shorten’s readings are little changed, although he is down five on “a capable leader” to 46%.
The Hughes production is a smokescreen for the fact that Cricket Australia virtually forced a man who could not play bouncers to play them, and as a result he was killed.
There should be a coroner’s inquiry into his death, and the coroner should examine the obsession cricket lovers, commentators and salespeople have with the bouncer as both a sign of manhood and a ticket selling device. Also included should be head and neck orientated play and/or tackles in football codes.
And then the big one: boxing.
But dairy’s up.
BREAKING ….
I just heard that Toyota in Caringbah (Taren Point is it) is closing down with the loss of 350 to 400 jobs.
Source ABC News 24
jeffemu
Sky news is reporting 2600 jobs to go from Toyota
To those here who were saying that the Opposition and cross-bench should accept Morrison’s bill as an “imperfect” solution, will find that this is the reason they cannot and will not vote for it:
[It also “fast-tracks” refugee processing, removes rights of appeal and allows authorities to take detained vessels or persons anywhere in the world regardless of international or domestic law.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/03/asylum-bill-temporary-protection-visas
Although i believe not all at once
Sheeze Vic … luckily for us the ADULTS are running the show.
Just imagine how bad it would be if the tripple rated lefties were still incharge.
Darnnnnn Labor.
SK @1103
[raaraa 1084
lets not forget his rabid opposition to native title.]
Fair enough. Maybe my view is tinted because of his love of trains and his opinion that such infrastructure is important to the nation. I suppose he’s the least bad of a bad bunch.
jeffemu – Caringbah is in Morrison’s electorate, so perhaps he will be made to suffer at the next election.
Jeffemu
The jobs market is quite concerning
victoria
No wonder Hockey got a bit sensitive in QT, even though the question referred to Holden. He had his defensive research all ready.
Morrison would need to be blasted out of Cook. The Shire loves his brand of bigotry.
Inner Westie
You are most likely correct but as we saw last week with Shapparton giving the Nats a 32.5% kick, one can never say never.
Morrison’s loss of Cook would truly be an act of god.
Inner Westie – you’re probably right, but a savage swing would be nice.
Morriscums seat of Cook I believe takes in the some of the area of the State Seat of Miranda and we all know what a 27% swing can do to a seat of Miranda.
(I am an old Shire Boy – Gymea but decamped many decades ago now)
I internet converse with many from the Shire and yes unfortunately there are a lot of Tories around the seat of Cook and the imbecile that occupies the seat
Ohhhh yeah “and go the mighty Sharkies”
No wonder Hockey’s looking ineffective. He’s caught the wrong tram and doesn’t know where he’s heading.
[Actually listening to voters and giving them what they want is unthinkable for the Abbott government. But it may be the only way out of the current deadlock…
This disarray in turn reflects the exhaustion of the project that has dominated Australian politics since the 1980s, and the rejection of that project by the electorate. Variously described as economic rationalism, microeconomic reform and (my own preferred term) market liberalism, the set of policies comprising deregulation, privatisation and competition policy was, in some respects, a necessary response to the economic breakdown of the 1970s. But whatever was useful in that agenda has long since been implemented, along with much that was harmful.
What remains is an unthinking assumption on the part of the political elite that adherence to this agenda is the hallmark of good policy, whereas following the wishes of a democratic electorate is irresponsible populism.]
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/03/broken-promises-and-budget-anger-this-chaotic-mess-wont-be-fixed-with-the-usual-political-script
At 83 cents, the dollar is back to a level where Australia’s automobile manufacturing industry might have been viable.
So what future does the LNP see for Australia. The Saudi Arabia of coal and iron ore?
Sorry guys.
Haven’t made comment for a long time but can’t let this one pass.
Morriscums electorate drips with red necks ..its racist heaven out here.
The unseating of Morrison in 2016 would be up there with Christmas parties at Luna Park, my first pash, and snapper fishing in the heads at daybreak.
lizzie @ 1216 – an excellent article. I firmly believe that Labor must abandon it’s bipartisan commitment to market liberalism, as the article call it, or neo-liberalism as I call it. I do think Labor is edging away from it slowly, as shown by it’s staunch opposition to the Abbott Government’s agenda.
STEVE777 – And who could have possibly forseen that, at the end of the mining boom, amid a falling exchange rate, we might, in fact, need a car industry. This is truly CRIMINAL.
I’ll settle for Labor picking up net 20 seats and a Senate that doesn’t require more than a couple of the oddballs on side to pass legislation.
JimmyD
First we have to disenfranchise the IPA.
I enjoyed the moment in the Leigh Sales interview last night when Christopher Pyne spoke effusively about the warmth of his relationships with Senate crossbenchers such as Dio Wong (sic). When Sales wryly observed that the name is Wang, not Wong, Pyne insisted that there are different ways of pronouncing it and it depends which part of the spectrum you are on. I thought that it is not so much a spectrum as a binary choice between the correct pronunciation and an incorrect pronunciation.
It’s a spectrum of disconnection from reality Nicholas.
I know this is a sensitive issue at this point, but I used to ponder why it was necessary for FPJG and LOTO TA to attend the funerals/services of remembrance for every one of our service personnel killed on active service in the likes of Iraq, Afghanistan or wherever.
While I understand the political imperative, I just wonder, should we be in a conflict where a number of our service personnel die, would it be expected that PM and LOTO attend all services?
During the various wars when hundreds and thousands of people died, while there was plenty of involvement of the politicians of the day, they did not attend each and every funeral.
How many did Churchill attend during WW2?
Even after the battle of Long Tan where we lost a lot of soldiers in Vietnam, I can’t remember any huge and public remembrance – though it was a long time ago.
When the Voyager went down, which was a REAL tragedy, leaders and the public seemed to take this in their stride.
Yet, the Gods of Sport seem to demand the presence of both political Federal leaders, and the State one as a necessity.
I know Abbott has talked about Death Cult but surely this is not what he meant?
It wasn’t just that Nicholas he also said wtte why worry about something so trivial – obviously forgetting the kerfuffle he kicked up about Julia’s pronounciation of hyperbole
First we take Manhatten then we take Berlin
Nicholas – 😆 he’s a twit
[Morriscums electorate drips with red necks ..its racist heaven out here.]
arunta is not wrong. Cashed-up rednecks, at that.
It is reported that 100 people turned up at the WACA today for the remembrance for Hughes. Apparently they watched the funeral service on TV.
Massive thunder storm in Sydney. Skies black, like night.
This makes it at least 5 x 90F+ days, with big storms in the afternoon, in a row.
Was it Pyne who quoted Churchill? after which Shorten did a spoof on “We will fight them in the Parliament…we will never surrender.” Much laughter amongst Labor caucus.
[I enjoyed the moment in the Leigh Sales interview last night when Christopher Pyne spoke effusively about the warmth of his relationships with Senate crossbenchers such as Dio Wong (sic). When Sales wryly observed that the name is Wang, not Wong, Pyne insisted that there are different ways of pronouncing it and it depends which part of the spectrum you are on. I thought that it is not so much a spectrum as a binary choice between the correct pronunciation and an incorrect pronunciation.]
It’s a threshold problem – there comes a point as you go down the arsehat spectrum beyond which you just can’t pronounce those funny asian names correctly, and we all know Pyne is a rich vein of arsehattery.
[RE: Stephen Hawking talking about AI being self-aware and replacing humans.
When AI gets too self-aware.
The net is already self aware.
Spend some time asking/interrogating cleverbot about its plans to take over the world and after a while it starts joking with you about them.
Everyone, including John Robb – who you’d think would know better, seems to think machines will turn on humanity, these days, but why? A massive part of human aggro is tied to our biological programming. Its something that came from hundreds of millions of years of selection pressure. Machines don’t need it. If machines destroy humanity it’ll be because humans programmed them to, not because they become smart enough to question their own existence.
btw Tim “bucketloads of extinction” Fischer would have been a shithouse PM.
LU
I thought spectrum only referred to a range of mental disorders. Gave me a jolt when Pyne used it.
Anyway – he should ask Wang what the correct pronunciation is, not go round contradicting others.
[1218
Steve777
At 83 cents, the dollar is back to a level where Australia’s automobile manufacturing industry might have been viable.
So what future does the LNP see for Australia. The Saudi Arabia of coal and iron ore?]
The comparison is very apt. Just as oil is now a declining industry, so are coal and iron ore.
Steve777 and briefly – I wouldn’t want to be Saudi Arabia, or any oil nation, when electric cars and renewable energy reach majority usage.
[1236
jules
Everyone, including John Robb – who you’d think would know better, seems to think machines will turn on humanity, these days, but why? A massive part of human aggro is tied to our biological programming. Its something that came from hundreds of millions of years of selection pressure. Machines don’t need it. If machines destroy humanity it’ll be because humans programmed them to, not because they become smart enough to question their own existence.]
How do you know? You impute a lot of power to human agency. That’s not unreasonable. But it’s probably a mistake.
We have been anthropomorphising nature from the word go. We have always placed ourselves at the centre of everything. We know conclusively that we are not at the centre of the planetary system, or this galaxy or anything else we can observe in the cosmos. Why should we be at the centre of intelligence? We just “assume” that intelligence is a distinctly human property. It is far more likely to turn out that the converse is true – that humans are but one example of intelligence. Considered from the standpoint of the infinitely large universe, this is practically inevitable.
bb 1201 – let it go – the most dangerous sport here and in the USA is fishing, in particular rock fishing. More people die from that than any other sport.
even boxing!
Jules re
[A massive part of human aggro is tied to our biological programming. Its something that came from hundreds of millions of years of selection pressure. Machines don’t need it. If machines destroy humanity it’ll be because humans programmed them to, not because they become smart enough to question their own existence.]
I agree with these comments.
There are also some other factors:
1) Intelligent machines -and humans – will all be networked, and it would be very difficult for a single node – read machine – or a group of nodes – to take over without the network becoming aware.
2) Humans and machines will become closely integrated, and there’s not much point in taking over yourself.
3) Robots aren’t like Christopher Pyne.
My big sister, who used to oversee a lot of legislation in her days as a senior public servant says there is no way Pyne could have had that new Higher Education legislation written overnight.
It was clearly written in anticipation of a knock-back of version #1.
[Anyway – he should ask Wang what the correct pronunciation is, not go round contradicting others.]
Pyne’s pronunciation was correct, not that it’s a huge issue.
[1217
lizzie
This disarray in turn reflects the exhaustion of the project that has dominated Australian politics since the 1980s, and the rejection of that project by the electorate. Variously described as economic rationalism, microeconomic reform and (my own preferred term) market liberalism, the set of policies comprising deregulation, privatisation and competition policy was, in some respects, a necessary response to the economic breakdown of the 1970s.]
These writers keep stealing my analysis, published here at PB in summary on an almost daily basis.
All they lack is my more considered and complete contribution “Post Liberalism – a treatise in humanist economics”.
I hope to write this in the coming year or so. But having set out the title here, it won’t be long before the whole idea acquires a life of its own, saving me all the trouble.
What would Shorten do without the insight of Latika Bourke
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/there-is-a-lesson-for-bill-shorten-in-the-coalitions-failures-20141203-11zf2w.html
briefly
😀
Did Pyne say which side of the “spectrum” or “speculum” you’re on?
If it was the latter, he probably spoke from some personal knowledge …
bb – 1244 – I thought that would have to be the case – and how does he expect all those crossbenchers to be on top of a new piece of legislation so quickly?