Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Another fortnight, another dire Newspoll for Tony Abbott.

The fortnightly Newspoll in The Australian brings the government little respite, Labor’s lead down from the 55-45 blowout last time to 54-46, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up two). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up two to 57%, while Bill Shorten’s remain broadly stable as they have for so long, with approval unchanged at 39% and disapproval up two to 43%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister widens just slightly from 43-37 to 43-36.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Morgan. This has the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37.5%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to another new low of 2%. Two-party preferred moves two points in the Coalition’s favour on the respondent-allocated measure, from 55.5-44.5 to 53.5-46.5, and previous-election preferences moves one point from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research ticks a point in Labor’s favour, from 52-48 to 53-47, with the major parties tied at 40% on the primary vote (Labor up a point, the Coalition steady), the Greens down one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 3%. Further questions:

• Opinion on the balance of power in the Senate is found to be unchanged since July in being slightly favourable, with 37% reckoning it good for democracy, 29% bad and 18% indifferent. When asked if the Senate has been right to block or reject various items of legislation, yes outpolls no in every case.

• A little surprisingly (to me at least), 42% think the 1.5% pay increase for defence personnel fair, versus 47% for unfair.

• Fifty-six per cent disagree with the Prime Minister’s contention that his government has “fundamentally kept faith with the Australian people” with respect to election promises, with 31% in agreement. Opinion is inevitably divided along party lines, but Greens voters are found to be even more negative than Labor ones, albeit that the sample for the latter is extremely small.

• As Essential does from time to time, respondents were asked for their view on various attributes with respect to the two leaders. The last time this was done was at the height of the Coalition’s post-budget poll collapse, and the latest survey finds Tony Abbott’s position very slightly improved, most noticeably with respect to “hard-working” (up five to 62%) and “good in a crisis” (up seven to 42%), the latter being an interesting bit of residue from his now vanishing poll recovery on the back of MH17 and terrorism concerns. However, he has dropped a further four points on “visionary”, to 27%. Reflecting his long-standing poll stasis, Bill Shorten’s readings are little changed, although he is down five on “a capable leader” to 46%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,484 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  5. Rowan Dean is a walking, talking argument against free university education.

    Out of all decency, his was a waste, and he should refund the fees to the taxpayers.

  9. What are the chances that Pyne’s electorate is going to spare us this deranged human being. Surely now they’ve seen their local member in action, many must have had enough.

  10. [Rowan Dean is a walking, talking argument against free university education.]

    I don’t know – it got him a gig on TV.

    Had he not had a uni education he’d probably be stealing your car or selling drugs to the local kids. 😉

  12. Kevin-One-Seven – well according to one poll (probably not reliable) Sturt is swining by 14% to Labor. I reckon SA will swing big at the next election.

  13. Hi all

    I watched some of the Hughes funeral. I felt like an intruder at someone’s private function. The maudlin commentary constantly wallowed in faux grief. To me, it was all nauseatingly inappropriate. He was a man I did not know (apart from sitting next to him once on a one hour flight), knew next to nothing about, had not seen play all that often (because his appearances for Australia were spasmodic).

    I was sad to hear he’d died. But people die in all sorts of ways: young and old. It’s always sad, so why does this matter so much?

    I’m a lifelong cricket lover, but I totally don’t get it. But I accept that many other people, including some who post regularly on here, feel differently. At the end of the day, I guess there’s no real harm in it.

  14. JD – Thanks. And it’s hard not to believe that Pyne will get his own little personal swing against him. I wonder what will happen to the poor man if he does loses office. Without politics (and people having to listen to his bullshit) he might dissolve into nothing at all.

  15. Meher – I was a big fan of hughes, but I couldn’t watch something like that. It’s a matter for his family, of course. But a good solution is the one the Whitlam family took: Small private funeral and a big memorial service. The problem for the family, I suppose, is that the memorial service is going to be held in Sydney.

  18. Re Rowan Dean. Saying he’s as bad as Piers Akerman is grossly unfair…to Piers.

    Dean usually motormouths a load of drivel. . His statements sound like the Tony Abbott talking points Peta rejected.

  19. K17

    [ JD – Thanks. And it’s hard not to believe that Pyne will get his own little personal swing against him. I wonder what will happen to the poor man if he does loses office. Without politics (and people having to listen to his bullshit) he might dissolve into nothing at all. ]

    I believe the “Jim’s Mobile Dog Wash” national franchise office is looking for a spokes-poodle.

  21. Lizzie & others, this is the “leak” tweet

    https://twitter.com/dickybeacholdie/status/539988019999035392

    The tweeter is clearly replying to Jill Hall who was talking about the roof water leak. “Tony” is clearly either taking the piss, or is one of the many no-name trolls/idiots on twitter who push conspiracy bullsh*t and pick fights. I favour the second theory, I’ve seen that tweeter before, its never for anything sensible. As far as I can tell, he has no insight, knows no-one, and has no idea.

    Seeing something being said on twitter twice doesn’t mean anything ….. just saying.

  24. The mobile dog washing industry is cripplingly over-regulated. Pyne would inject some well-needed reforms to ensure that it is not only sustainable but prospers in an increasingly competitive global market.

  25. After his life as an MP The Poodle will become a commentator on Foxtel with his own nightly show so that the tragics here continue to get their fill.

  26. [I believe the “Jim’s Mobile Dog Wash” national franchise office is looking for a spokes-poodle.]

    He could always do a heck of a job a head of the National My Little Pony Association.

  31. 1164: and now there is going to be a memorial service, which will also receive national coverage.

    That makes it two national mourning events on TV for a guy who quite likely wasn’t good enough to cut it at the top level in his chosen profession.

    If there’s an afterlife, he must be finding a bit of wry amusement in all the carry on.

    PS I’ve just heard Channel 7 news describe him as “the country boy who made it to the top in his chosen sport”, a “champion sportsman” and “an elite test cricketer”. What would they all be saying about him if he’d truly made it?

  32. On Hughes funeral, on a human level I think it is sad for anyone who dies at such a young age and whilst I thought he was a good batsman but I do find the description of him as a great batsman to be misleading, sure he was talented but at 25 his game wasn’t going to improve much further.

    I think the thing I find hardest about the coverage isn’t so much that its being coverage but the way the media spin a narrative makes what is a sad occasion worst by sometimes cringe worthy commendatory.

  33. Mb 1162 – a former cricket teammate of mine died young and at his funeral other than family and work people there was a huge number of people who had played with him. We celebrated his life and still do. That player was like a big brother to me as a teenager. I know it sounds corny but there is a special bond playing in a team with someone for years.

  36. Leroy

    Must have been the leak in the roof that set them all off. I should have expressed my doubts in the same post, but pressed enter too soon.

    But see #1149. That’s probably why I’d seen it before, connected with McDonald.

  39. [Oops a typo.]

    Well, truss me up and call me a turkey. I did the Googles on it, and snit is actually a word!

    It means a fit of irritation, a sulk.

    Couldn’t be more appropriate. 🙂

  40. [Or plane crashes. Or natural disasters. Or anything that provides an opportunity for Abbott to give the appearance of statesmanlike behaviour.]

    Abbottis always on about death cults. He wallows in death himself.

  42. Rocket

    I can understand that, team sports are great at building those bonds and sadly when one member passes away particularly in sudden circumstances, that team will always feel a strong bond from knowing that now parted but not forgotten team member.

    We can see from the reaction of people like Michael Clarke just how important Hughes was and will remain to those who played with him.

  43. Rocket Rocket@1182: that makes perfect sense to me. I have no problem with the reaction of his teammates, or the wider cricketing community. It’s outpouring of faux emotion by the media, egging on the general public, that gets my goat. It verges on being creepy.

  45. When Abbott drops on one knee beside his bed at night, he asks for only one thing: “The courage to continue to hate unconditionally, and to deny people any amount of love or humanity”.

    So far, his god has come good.

  46. [Abbott is always on about death cults. He wallows in death himself.]

    That’s his medieval Catholicism coming to the fore.

    He has a nerve demanding indigenous folk let go of the black armband view of the last 200 years of factual history, while he subscribes to a 2000 year old mythology.

  47. BB
    I ain’t going there.

    And
    If Pyne was to get a job at the My Little Pony mob, it would not be as the horse’s head.

  49. There was a entry in here some time ago just after that fatal terrorist assault on the Canadian Parliament.

    Someone had either tweeted or posted something along the lines that the Canadian PM and our very own Lying Friar PM, as close friends had exchanged sympathy calls.

    There was sympathy about the deaths in Canada and about how unfortunate it was for Tone that nothing like it had happened here in Aus just yet.

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