Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Not much doing in Essential Research this week, apart from results showing uneasiness about data retention. Elsewhere, a union-commissioned poll finds Joe Hockey taking a hit in his seat of North Sydney.

Absolutely no change whatsoever in this week’s Essential Research result, except that the “others” reading is up a point to 9% without making any change the other primary votes, because rounding. That means Labor leads 52-48 on two-party while trailing 40% to 38% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 4%. We also get Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott down one on approval to 39% and up two on disapproval to 50%, Bill Shorten up two on both measures to 37% and 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 38-32 to 36-34. Further questions are inspired by data retention, the most direct of which finds 41% broadly supportive and 44% broadly opposed. A slight majority indicated a lot or some trust for police and intelligence agencies not to misuse data (53% against 42% for little or no trust), but few did so for private companies. Only 34% expressed support for the AFP using data retention to pursue illegal downloaders, with 47% opposed.

Elsewhere:

• United Voice has commissioned ReachTEL to conduct automated phone polls of the North Sydney (Joe Hockey, Liberal) and McMahon (Chris Bowen, Labor) electorates, by way of promoting its campaign for childcare funding. The full results, including responses to questions on childcare, can be downloaded here. Excluding the undecided, the North Sydney poll has the Liberals on 49% (down 12%), Labor on 34% (up 14%) and the Greens on 13% (down 3%), translating on 2013 preferences to a Liberal two-party vote of 53.7% (down 12.2%). However, the McMahon poll is almost bang on the 2013 election result: Labor 49% (down 2%), Liberal 40% (down 1%) and Greens 4% (up 1%), with Labor’s two-party vote unchanged at 55.3%.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has been rebuked in an Australian National Audit Office report for failing to implement promised improvements to ballot box and polling booth security before the 2013 election, and not doing as much as it claimed to have done to implement the recommendations of the Keelty report following the WA Senate disaster. More from Harley Dennett at The Mandarin.

• South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill has flagged the possibility of Legislative Council reforms, in particular an end to staggered eight-year terms, to be implemented after a referendum.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

587 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  4. [FB

    So although Rudd was the proximal cause of the problem, the distal cause lay in ALP culture, which allowed him to be selected,…]

    The ALP machine have to wear their part in this. Rudd couldn’t have happened if they had done their job a bit better.

  5. My problem with the mining tax models (either MRRT or RSPT) was that revenue was projected to vary hugely from year to year which means they were always unsuitable for the budget, which depends on sources of revenue being stable and predictable. The only thing that was appropriate for the mining tax was a sovereign wealth fund, which Labor opted not to do ( a big mistake in my opinion).

  6. Ben Roberts Smith saying he was “grossly misrepresented” –

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/vc-recipient-ben-robertssmith-slams-defence-pay-support-as-absolute-rubbish-20141112-11kxp3.html

    As I commented only a couple of days ago when this story first broke:

    Give it up Lambie, Ben’s back in town.

    Victoria Cross winner roasts Lambie

    VICTORIA Cross recipient Ben Roberts-Smith has defended the meagre pay deal for soldiers, arguing the budget deficit required sacrifice.

    Because you know the Daily Telegraph never lies.

  7. Hmmmm…..Wonder how stupid Abbott and Bishop feel about now?

    Seems they were they blind-sided by China and the US Carbon Reduction Target announcement, and must be wondering how their good friends in China and the US could do that to them? 🙂

    Still, seems it will be on the G20 agenda, or at least a hot topic here during the G20, whether Abbott likes it or not.

    It would be hard to imagine both Presidents making speeches here now without this agreement being front and centre as they can present it as an area where they agree to counterbalance topics where they dont.

    I really dont think Abbott will be looking forward to the G20, but at least HE gets to control the seating and probably wont wind up having to sit next to Vlad and be ignored.

    And i agree with the sentiment expressed up thread. Whitlam would have loved it to see Tony having to sit next to Putin. Bet JG had a good laugh as well. 🙂

  8. [The ALP machine have to wear their part in this. Rudd couldn’t have happened if they had done their job a bit better.]

    I agree if rudd is / was 1/4 as bad as the Rudd hating revisionists need to claim they were absolutely culpable for making him L Op.

  11. [U.S. And China Unveil Ambitious Climate Change Goals
    U.S., China Unveil Ambitious Climate Change Goals
    GREG BAKER via Getty Images
    BEIJING (AP) — The United States and China unveiled ambitious targets Wednesday to reduce greenhouse gases, aiming to inject fresh momentum into the global fight against climate change ahead of a make-or-break treaty to be finalized next year.

    President Barack Obama announced that the U.S. would move much faster in cutting pollution, with a goal to reduce by 26 percent to 28 percent by 2025, compared with 2005 levels. Earlier in his presidency, Obama set a goal to cut emissions by 17 percent by 2020.

    Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose country’s emissions are still growing as it builds new coal plants, didn’t commit to cut emissions by a specific amount. Rather, he set a target for China’s emission to peak by 2030, or earlier if possible. He also pledged to increase the share of energy that China will derive from sources other than fossil fuels.

    The unexpected breakthrough by the world’s two largest polluters reflected both nations’ desire to display a united front on climate change, blunting arguments from developing countries that have balked at demands that they get serious about cutting emissions. Yet it was unclear how feasible it would be for either country to meet their goals, and Obama’s pledge was sure to confront tough opposition from ascendant Republicans in Congress.

    “This is, in my view, the most important bilateral climate announcement ever,” said David Sandalow, formerly a top environmental official at the White House and the Energy Department. “It sends the signal the two largest emitters in the world are working together to address this problem.”
    READ THE WHOLE STORY]

  21. imacca

    [, but at least HE gets to control the seating and probably wont wind up having to sit next to Vlad and be ignored.]
    And where they will be sleeping….

    [US President Barack Obama will stay in the presidential suite at the Marriott Hotel. Cost – A$2500 ($2782) a night.

    China President Xi Jinping will stay in the Stamford suite at the Stamford Plaza. Cost – A$1695 ($1886) a night.

    UK Prime Minister David Cameron will stay at a suite in the Treasury Hotel. Cost – A$1259 ($1400) a night.

    Burma President Thein Sein will stay at the signature suite at Gambaros. Cost – A$1180 ($1313) a night.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin will stay at the Hilton in a king suite. Cost – A$615 ($684) a night.

    Saudia Arabia King Abdullah will stay at the manor suite at the Gold Coast Sanctuary Cove. Cost – A$495 ($550) a night.

    Australia Prime Minister Tony Abbott will stay at a deluxe king suite at Rydges. Cost – A$309 ($344) a night.

    Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo ….., a room at the A$222 Novotel.]

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz-government/news/article.cfm?c_id=144&objectid=11357217

  28. Very strong words from Shorten.

    “Tony Abbott’s flat-earth views are out of touch with Australians and out of touch with world leaders. Climate change is not just an environmental issue. It is a security issue and it is absolutely an economic issue. Tony Abbott’s failure to recognise this represents a failure of leadership.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barack-obama-praises-historic-climate-deal-as-labor-steps-up-attack-on-coalition-20141112-11l6e1.html#ixzz3IphMfNRd

  32. And to top off the good news Look who is going to be commenting on Lateline tonight

    “@JohnFBruce: #Lateline tonight: Former Prime Minister Paul Keating joins Tony Jones live … the US/China climate deal, APEC & the G20. @Lateline 10:30”

  33. I can’t quote Obama’s words, but I think he said the climate deal with China would lead to wtte economic growth and security. Isn’t that what Hockey’s pare-down spending policy is supposed to do?

  35. [US President Barack Obama will stay in the presidential suite at the Marriott Hotel.]

    I heard that the whole of the hotel is booked out by his staff.

  36. ruawake

    Yeah!
    I’ve been trying to decide which words they will use to spin this in their favour. We have to admit the Libs are masters of spin.

  37. [JimmyDoyle
    Posted Wednesday, November 12, 2014 at 5:29 pm | PERMALINK
    I may be mistaken but I believe that Rudd Street in New Acton, Canberra (just west of the the CBD) is named after Kevin.]

    Actually, no. Rudd Street is in the city and was named after Arthur Hoey (Steele Rudd who wrote “On Our Selection” and other Australian works).

    http://www.planning.act.gov.au/tools_resources/place_search/place_search3?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHAlM0ElMkYlMkYyMDMuOS4yNDkuMyUyRlBsYWNlTmFtZXMlMkZQbGFjZURldGFpbHMuYXNweCUzRm9iamVjdElEJTNEOTcwMiZhbGw9MQ%3D%3D

  39. If I were spinning for the regime on climate I’d say that now that China and the USA have cut a deal the difference made by cutting Australia’s emissions would be too trivial to make a difference.

    😉

    You keep the policy you want and just use the opposite rationale.

    😉

  42. So hpw is coal going to do now China moving in a big way to reduce emissions?

    Not well I would think. Wise investors should look elsewhere as it is now obvious coals days are numbered

  43. [ JimmyDoyle

    Posted Wednesday, November 12, 2014 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    Very strong words from Shorten.

    “Tony Abbott’s flat-earth views are out of touch with Australians and out of touch with world leaders. Climate change is not just an environmental issue. It is a security issue and it is absolutely an economic issue. Tony Abbott’s failure to recognise this represents a failure of leadership.” ]

    …scrape …..scrape ……scrape

    … its the knuckle dragging sound as he rocks from side to side that grows more ominous each day ….

  45. Will there be a Tony/Vlad rematch at G20 after this?

    [Russia has roundly rejected Tony Abbott’s demand that the Kremlin apologise for the downing of flight MH17 and offer compensation to the victims’ families.

    A spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Canberra, citing the official position of Moscow, called on the Prime Minister to present any evidence in Australia’s possession that the flight was indeed shot down by Kremlin-backed Ukrainian rebels using Russian-supplied missiles.

    “We totally refute the allegations and we want to commit to the full and impartial international investigation,” the spokesman, Alexander Odoevskiy, said.

    “If the Prime Minister has, as he declares, any clear evidence, then he should bring it to the table. We haven’t seen it.”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/russia-rejects-tony-abbotts-call-for-apology-and-compensation-for-mh17-20141112-11l13o.html#ixzz3Ipq9C5S4

  46. [“If the Prime Minister has, as he declares, any clear evidence, then he should bring it to the table. We haven’t seen it.”]

    Tony can’t show the Russians anything, the Americans won’t let him.

  50. [JimmyDoyle
    Posted Wednesday, November 12, 2014 at 6:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Channel Seven lead news story – Russian Warships heading for Australia. Not kidding. Kerry Stokes sure is keen to rescue Abbott.]

    Mark Riley says there are four Russian ships in the Coral Sea just outside Australian waters. He thinks it is a message from Putin to Abbott. Riley also asks what would Australia do if they asked permission to enter Australian waters?

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