The only new poll this week was from Essential Research, and it recorded next to no change from its established pattern, which means next to no change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. What change there is has caused Labor recover the slightest possible lead on the two-party preferred aggregate, but the seat total and its distribution between the states is entirely unchanged on last week. One point worth noting is the ongoing slide of Palmer United, which can be timed almost exactly to its Senators taking their seats at the start of July, and which has now brought it to its lowest ebb since the election. Essential Research also furnished us with a new seat of leadership ratings this week, the effect of which has been to moderate the upward lurch on Tony Abbott’s net approval rating caused by the recent Morgan phone poll. The overall trend for Abbott remains upward, but Bill Shorten’s rating has also been tracking upwards lightly, albeit more gently. As I explain in Crikey today, this improvement appears to have been driven by men rather than women.
BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor
Very little to report from the world of poll aggregation this week, with Newspoll hanging back another week for next week’s resumption of parliament.
[Apparently ISIS are going to use these to hurl nearly-dead Ebola victims into Western positions:
They’ve already started:
The Americans are quickly taking countermeasures:
This guy has a backpack filled with copies of Johnny Cash’s last album. No one has gotten more than three songs into it without slashing their own throat.
[Can we please get back onto Simcas?]
Well my first car was a Holden FB station wagon. Ozzie, Ozzie, Ozzie. oi oi oi.
I was Team Australia before it was hip.
Sadly, the brakes and gearbox failed, but it managed to limp to SimsMetal at Mascot where I got a generous $200.
[Tanya Plibersek urges Tony Abbott to use more sober language with Putin]
Oh no, has the grog monster been hitting it again.
Re Nicholas @94: if nuclear fusion turned out to be a goer, who knows? Given that it requires such extreme temperatures and pressures, it’s hard to see that it could be fitted into s power source for aircraft, ships and so forth. Maybe power stations. Maybe power sources for interplanetary spaceships or even interstellar spaceships on decades-long (centuries?) journeys.
But again, who knows? When I was young I read a bit of science fiction. But I can’t recall any of it predicting the Internet. Maybe Star Trek tricorders count as iPhones.
When I wandered past Ch7 news, they were playing Tanya Plibersek speaking on ebola. Then the Ch7 person had an ‘exclusive’ that the Brits might help out with providing operational support to Australia if we sent people to Africa.
I think we have now reached the stage where Abbott needs to be seen to be doing something positive.
For those interested in US politics chance Republican win Senate control:
Fivethirtyeight 52 seats
Princeton 52 seats
Electoral-vote 53 seats
Election projection 52 seats
Interestingly, on the same day, Nate Silver (538) and Sam Wang (PEC) both have pieces on potential polling bias in the Senate polls. Taking them together:
1. 2010 and 2012 elections had a 2.7 to 3.7% bias towards Republicans
2. A 1% bias towards Republicans this time would give a 50% Democrat control
3. A 2% bias towards Republicans this time would give a 77% chance of Democrat control
“Sending people to Africa” to help with Ebola is not quite as simple as many here seem to think.
It is quite different to sending bombs to Syria or sending Indonesia to Sri Lanka after a Tsunami
Re Mikehillard @103: ‘Shirffronting’: two drunks in the front bar taking swings at each other and grabbing each others’ shirts to keep from overbalancing.
E.
You wuss.
The Great Shirtfronter can do anything.
Isn’t there someone he can yell at, bully, or something like that to make it happen?
Did a tour of the National Anzac Centre today ahead of its actual opening in a couple of weeks time.
If you’re into war history (which I’m not), I’m sure people will find it a truly great experience. The displays are also highly interactive which I’m sure kids will love. But the location of the building, the spectacular views, and seeing it all come together made it all the worth accepting the invite for me.
Whether controlled fusion reactors can be made portable power plants is kind of irrelevant. If it’s easy and safe to do so, great, otherwise who cares.
The (failed) promise of fission was always ‘too cheap to meter’ electricity.
Controlled fusion may well be able to produce electricity at next to no cost (and low environmental impact), and if that can be done then a lot of the process rules get thrown out the window. If we have basically free electricity (and note that the same applies to solar and wind power if the price and environmental impacts of solar panels and turbines continue to fall), then you can set up basically arbitrary chemical processing plants to produce whatever fuel with whatever properties you like.
Liquid or gas fuel for transport still has many attractive features – high energy density, low capital costs to exploit, existing infrastructure can be reused or repurposed etc – and centralized production of hydrogen or hydrocarbon fuel becomes almost trivial if you’re willing to throw excess electricity at the problem.
As to planes and rockets – planes could be driven by a portable fusion plant, by going to, say, electric motor driven propellers – but I don’t really see the point. Rockets (at least for leaving Earth’s gravity well), as we know them, wouldn’t work without some radically new technology. For space travel outside of planetary gravity portable fusion plants would be very useful, as fission plants have been used already.
I agree the shirt fronting comment was dumb. The guys a schmuck as I have said here for many years. However, what do you think will be the electoral effect? I suspect its good for him to be in a fight with the Russians over being “too strongly” against Putin.
[or sending Indonesia to Sri Lanka after a Tsunami]
Are we supposed to be assisting in this ‘re-location’?
Steve777
BTW I thought your submission on “shirt fronting” to the urban dictionary was spot on. Despite the AFL connotations it’s always meant getting in someones face, as in chest to chest. That’s my recall from living in the UK anyhow.
bw@109
Yeah, where is our yobbo PM!
Just heard re non Ebola help is that our allies like the Poms and Americans won’t evacuate non nationals.
Sooo is this latest excuse…. A) Bullshit or B) Our standing is now so low they really won’t help. ?
Long time CLP apparatchik, Graeme Lewis, might be in some legal hot water.
[Foundation 51: Email suggests $200,000 spent on CLP election campaign
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-16/email-suggests-foundation-51-spent-200k-on-election-campaign/5819802 ]
mike
[Despite the AFL connotations]
Also.
poroti@116
Undoubtedly bullshit. Our illustrious PM just doesn’t want anything to detract from his macho war mongering hero bullshit. That’s probably the real reason for the “shirtfront” crap – to drown out any other headlines and make himself look like a man by standing up to Putin.
Anyway, how could a real man prove himself a hero by fighting a virus? Where’s the photo op in that? Let those wuzzy scientists and doctors deal with it … even better if they’re foreign, so we don’t even have to spend any money! After all, we still have a budget emergency to deal with don’t we?
poroti,
The Government has been very consistent on the reasons why there is no Ebola Taskforce. You can either believe them or water your own npersonal prejudices.
“And Prime Minister Tony Abbott has said it would be “irresponsible” to send Australian personnel to an Ebola hot spot “when we don’t have any means of effectively evacuating such personnel back to Australia and we have no commitments from other countries to treat them there either”.
“I think it would be a little irresponsible of an Australian government to order Australian personnel into this very dangerous situation if we didn’t have effective risk mitigation strategies in place, and at the moment there is no way of doing that,” Mr Abbott told reporters on Thursday.
Health Minister Peter Dutton: “I am not going to put Australian health workers into harm’s way without an assurance that we can provide them with the medical assistance if they contract the virus.”
Addressing criticism that Australia isn’t contributing enough to the international fight against Ebola, Mr Dutton said that without such agreements in place any Australian health worker who became infected would face a minimum 30-hour flight back home and would be unlikely to survive.
He said while the Abbott government is negotiating with the US, Britain and European allies to secure a guarantee of medical treatment for any Australian personnel who contracted the lethal virus in West Africa, it was not prepared to “send Australian health workers into harm’s way without having 100 per cent assurance that we could provide those people with the support
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-seeking-deal-with-allies-to-evacuate-australian-ebola-workers-20141016-116txw.html#ixzz3GIdbQB1S
Just been listening to Bolt and Steve Price on 2GB.
We should ot send military doctors to ebole countries because:
* Who’d want to go there and die?
* We don’t want Italians and Spanish (or any other woggy types) looking after any of our people who get sick.
* We can’t get landing rights in ebola nations (this appears to be quite a popular one),
* Tanya Plibersek should go herself if she’s such a hero.
* (Caller) “Send Julia Gillard too!” (laughter from Bolt/Price)
* The Earth is cooling.
* When will scientists say sorry for getting Climate Science so wrong?
* (Bolt) “I’m no scientist” (then launches into rant saying how NASA now admits Global Warming is a hoax… cites “the flawed, wrong science”),
Had to give up after that. Truly sick-making. All said with such breezy confidence as if anyone who disagrees with them is quite a loon.
What a shame that the PM will never be asked why we are helping these people.
[Iraq is descending into savage sectarian warfare as government-backed Shia militias kill, torture and hold for ransom any Sunni whom they detain……………a detailed Amnesty International report published today, the militias enjoy total immunity in committing war crimes against the Sunni community
The inability of the Baghdad government to field a national army and its reliance on militias means that Iraq is in the last stages of disintegration
Meanwhile, Isis has seized all of Anbar province west of Baghdad, defeating the Iraqi army despite the support of US airpower. One of the last two army bases in Anbar fell on Monday as Isis began moving towards west Baghdad.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/shia-militias-abducting-and-killing-sunni-civilians-in-revenge-for-isis-attacks-9792838.html
Greensborough Growler
I’ll take the AMA’s call of Abbott’s reasons as “mystifying” .
Abbott hasn’t said he would never send healthcare professionals to assist with Ebola. He has said that he won’t do it until we are sure that we have the logistical expertise to send them there, keep them safe and get them home safely.
That is among the most sensible things he has done since taking office.
Those bleating about sending help to Africa don’t really understand the issues here, I suspect. It aint like sending an Engineer to Indonesia.
poroti,
The AMA are famous for their expertise in negotiating with foreign countries. I’d say they are mystified because they have NFI.
E
[It aint like sending an Engineer to Indonesia.]
A better comparison would be sending soldiers to Iraq.
Indeed. Blowing stuff up is easy.
At this stage the experts haven’t even worked out how to remove the personal protection equipment safely after Ebola exposure.
I thought the CDC’s guidelines seemed a bit lax. Particularly the fairly confusing bit about handling potentially infected garments as you disrobe. Turns out the guidelines were all wrong. It seems to be a case of “American know-how” not wanting to learn from the cheese-eating surrender monkeys at Medecins Sans Frontiers.
From the NYT:
While not working in an infectious environment, I spend half my life in and out of clean-room areas in my optics work. When I saw some of the procedures I said, “Eh?” to myself. You could drive a truck through them.
(And – as Andrew Bolt might say – I’m no scientist).
I think there’s a big difference between doctors volunteering to go to West Africa and making a team go for a disease which isn’t treatable, is contagious and highly fatal.
I heard on the car radio that the Australian government was developing contingency plans to send support should Ebola get into the Asia Pacific region. That actually seems like a reasonable approach. That plus providing financial support for current efforts in West Africa seems the way to go.
[…and get them home safely.]
This is a complete straw-man argument.
What does it matter WHERE they are treated, as long as they are treated professionally?
Why DO they have to come 13,000 miles back to Australia. Why not Europe, or America?
Is it an international effort or not? Are we supposed to be doing “our bit” or not?
And SINCE WHEN are soldiers suddenly supposed to be immune from risk of death? That’s the risk they take when they sign on… ALL of them. I haven’t seen Abbott agonizing over possible deaths in Iraq. Have you?
Absolutely, staff volunteering to go is fine.
Australian sending them, means that the government has to have everything sorted out (e.g., what happens if the plane carrying a patient breaks down somewhere?).
BB,
The Government has not been able to negotiate the neccesary deals for other closer countries (e.g. Germany) to take any of our people that become infected.
That is the issue.
I doubt sending doctors and nurses on a suicide mission will appeal to most Australians.
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Thursday, October 16, 2014 at 9:07 pm | PERMALINK
…and get them home safely.
This is a complete straw-man argument.
What does it matter WHERE they are treated, as long as they are treated professionally?]
It doesn’t matter, as long as there is somewhere.
Do you know where that is? To date, it is my understanding that no country has given that assurance to Australia.
[Why DO they have to come 13,000 miles back to Australia. Why not Europe, or America?
Is it an international effort or not? Are we supposed to be doing “our bit” or not?]
They don’t have to come to Australia. They need to be able to be treated somewhere. Until that has been determined and an agreement put in place, we don’t have the capacity.
I can tell you that we do not have a clear idea how to remove the PPE yet. This aint like TB or HIV. Those illnesses are dead easy and we should/could send staff to help with those kinds of health problems.
Ebola is different.
BB
The CDC isn’t coming out of this looking too good. Their director has said that people with ebola shouldn’t catch public transport as they might give it to someone, but that people travelling on public transport can’t catch it.
[“I think there are two different parts of that equation,” he continued. “The first is, if you’re a member of the traveling public and are healthy, should you be worried that you might have gotten it by sitting next to someone? And the answer is no.”
“Second, if you are sick and you may have Ebola, should you get on a bus? And the answer to that is also no. You might become ill, you might have a problem that exposes someone around you,” he said.]
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/brittany-m-hughes/cdc-you-can-give-can-t-get-ebola-bus
Whatever.
The US GDP is around 11 times that of the Australian GDP.
The US is spending 51 times more on Ebola than Australia.
On Ebola, Australia is punching below its weight.
[Abbott hasn’t said he would never send healthcare professionals to assist with Ebola. He has said that he won’t do it until we are sure that we have the logistical expertise to send them there, keep them safe and get them home safely.
That is among the most sensible things he has done since taking office.]
I agree. The most sensible thing Abbott has said as PM.
The US has a different “reach” to us……you cannot just multiply GDP and say we should spend $x
Everything, a very small number of medical staffers have been infected, compared to the very large numbers of civilians who have been infected.
It’s not a death sentence to help out, provided proper procedures are taken care of and available.
Help could be sought from other countries on a co-operative basis. I suspect our government isn’t asking too hard.
They’re only darkies, after all, who are dying. Much more important to bomb Iraqis pointlessly (and at great expense) so the polls even up, isn’t it? Now THERE’S an existential threat! Two crazies with a plastic sword.
Leaving aside the question of whether we can get people out or not.
Does anyone know what percentage of people we send over there would be expected to contract Ebola, assuming they’re taking all the precautions available to them.
Bushfire Bill@139
Yes, I agree. Abbott will help when there are votes in it for him. Until then, he doesn’t give a fuck.
I must say that the way the CDC is dealing with the ebola emergency is not like the way they deal with it in the movies.
In the movies some lone doctor usually works right through the night and develops a vaccine that is applied without any clinical trials. It’s all over neatly in 90 minutes.
That is probably why so many are shocked to find out the CDC is a bunch of duffers so far.
The NYT article emphasizes the point that MsF has been fighting ebola for decades and they know how to manage risks. Hardly anyone has asked them.
And I think there’s somewhere between individual Australians volunteering and taking all the responsibility for travel etc etc on themselves (with the help of MSF or Red Cross or whatever, but still), and the Australian government ordering troops in – the Australian government could be doing more to facilitate those who do volunteer as well as having an official Australian mission – staffed by volunteers, but including both medical staff and army/airforce personnel on official business and officially paid for and encouraged by the government.
No one would be forced to go.
The Australian government could still be ‘sending people’.
And the point of sending people to West Africa is (a) we’ve been asked to by the West Africans, (b) WHO says we need as many people on the ground as possible, and (c) this is a time-sensitive issue – effectively controlling the initial outbreak will save a lot of people from being infected down the track, including Australians – if we don’t control it now it becomes a much bigger problem down the track.
BB
[Everything, a very small number of medical staffers have been infected, compared to the very large numbers of civilians who have been infected.]
That is just plain wrong.
More than 200 health workers have died from ebola since June, out of the 4000 or so who have died.
DisplayName@140
You may as well ask how many Australians are expected to die in Iraq? The military will have a fairly good estimate of number of expected casualties, and be planning for them already – we just don’t know what that number is.
One thing we could do would be to set up hospitals for medical personnel, as a way of settling in or getting up to speed.
We don’t have to go into the villages and kick lumps of rotting bush meat out of the way to get there.
We could start slow.
Clearly, it’s far better for our brave troops to be sitting n their arses in the Middle East, banging n doors looking for an invitation to kill someone, rather than save lives where the risk is immediate and the need is great.
So much more fun, the killing business.
Bushfire Bill@146
And there’s more votes in it!
[More than 200 health workers have died from ebola since June, out of the 4000 or so who have died.]
200 out of 4000 is a pretty small percentage, or hadn’t you noticed?
[Bushfire Bill
….Everything, a very small number of medical staffers have been infected, compared to the very large numbers of civilians who have been infected.]
Not the point.
One patient in US with Ebola and 2 nurses who followed the guidelines were infected.
The current case fatality rate is something like 50% (40% to 70% figures have been quoted by different sources).
[It’s not a death sentence to help out, provided proper procedures are taken care of and available.]
See above.
[Help could be sought from other countries on a co-operative basis. I suspect our government isn’t asking too hard.]
Perhaps. Delve into that rather than arguing that we should just go blindly…
[They’re only darkies, after all, who are dying. Much more important to bomb Iraqis pointlessly (and at great expense) so the polls even up, isn’t it? Now THERE’S an existential threat! Two crazies with a plastic sword.]
There is no doubt that the fact that it was mostly Africans getting and dying from Ebola for the last few decades has meant little research money was spent on it.
Now that a few Western types have been infected the vaccine will probably be forthcoming.
Sad but true……
The vaccine currently used for TB was designed almost 100 years ago and hasn’t been improved or modified since then…..and it doesn’t really work very well (other than to prevent disseminated TB/TB meningitis).
P1
[You may as well ask how many Australians are expected to die in Iraq? The military will have a fairly good estimate of number of expected casualties, and be planning for them already – we just don’t know what that number is.]
Well, that’s a good question. How does the personal-risk:public-risk ratio of the fight with IS compare to the that of the fight with Ebola?