Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Only minor changes on voting intention in Essential Research this week, but monthly personal ratings add to an impression of solid improvement for Tony Abbott.

No change on two-party preferred this week on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with Labor remaining 52-48 ahead, but the Coalition has gained a point on the primary vote, to 41%, at the expense of the steady decline of Palmer United, down one to 3%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 39% and 10%. Essential also features its monthly personal ratings, adding to a picture of improvement for Tony Abbott who is up five on approval to 40% and down four on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is steady on both measures at 35% and 36%. Abbott has also opened up a fairly solid 38-32 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 35-36 last time.

Other questions find an impressive 72-2 split on the question of whether the gap between the rich and poor has increased over the past decade, and a series of further questions address what respondents feel should be done about it. A question on mining finds no view to the effect that it has become more or less important to Australia since five years ago, but there is a very strong view that mining exports principally benefit company executives and shareholders. In dealing with budgetary problems, there is a 68-22 split in favour of higher corporate tax and 56-31 in favour of abandoning the parental leave scheme, but 67-21 against “cuts to tax concessions in areas like superannuation”, 69-21 against for higher income taxes and 81-12 against for cuts to social services, health and education.

Newspoll has had another week off, presumably so its return can be timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament next Tuesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

708 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Yeah, I don’t think that bizarre lockheed non-announcement means anything. If they have a prototype ready in a year that does what they say it does, fan-bloody-tastic, get back to us then. Until then, stfu and don’t load us up with more hype and undelivered promises of fusion over the last 60 years or so.

  2. Wow someone said it.

    @redneckninja: Greens Senator Richard Di Natale claims Abbott Gov’s reax to Ebola is because “there are no votes in poor black Africans dying @NewsTalk2UE

  3. Jackol

    Remember, they are the ones building those super fighters we are purchasing 🙂

    I more than hope that it works. But, yes, who knows if it will.

  4. And when the focus of an announcement is on something entirely secondary/inconsequential compared to proving basic feasibility of the central concept – in this case making a reactor ‘small enough to fit on back of a truck’ – or, as another example, the Japanese announcement about the space elevator talking about designs for the carriage – I think it’s a safe bet that there’s nothing there.

    I mean given where we are now, who-tf cares if a fusion reactor is small enough to ‘fit on back of a truck’ – just make a freaking fusion power plant that reliably generates substantially more usable energy than is put into it and I won’t care how big it is.

  5. Jackol

    Of course, the proof is in the pudding, but the size thing is pretty important.

    If it is small, then that means we can put it on spaceships, transport it to places.

    It could be built in a large factory and transported around, rather than being built in-situ.

    There’s huge advantages on the size compared to the ‘typical’ design for a fusion reactor (not that any designs work).

  6. A present from Abbott to Tasmania due to scrapping the carbon tax:

    [Hydro Tasmania warns record $242 million annual profit may be its last due to carbon tax scrapping

    Hydro Tasmania has posted a record $242 million profit but is warning it could be the last year of big profits.

    The renewable energy generator said the Federal Government’s scrapping of the carbon tax would cut into profits.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-16/hydro-tasmania-warns-record-profit-may-be-its-last-due-to-carbo/5818454

  7. Astrobleme – the eize thing is something you work on after you get the basic concept working. Fission plants (and any other massive engineering challenge) were refined and evolved over time. You get the basic thing working and don’t worry about the size. After you can demonstrate it working, then you worry about how to fine tune the process to scale up the energy output, make it more efficient, safer, more reliable, lower maintenance, lower construction cost, yada yada yada.

    The first fission plants weren’t targeted at submarines or spacecraft.

    When you’re announcing the refinements before having anything to show at all … that’s usually engineering bullshit as far as I’m concerned.

  8. Astrobleme@646

    BB

    I really hope Lockhead Martin get it worked out. A small and compact Fusion reactor like that would go a long way to solving a whole host of world problems…

    Sadly it may bankrupt a lot of the East Coast and possibly WA by making a lot of coal mining redundant and Gas redundant.

    The good thing is that if it can be adapted from Thorium, they’ll come out from around the same geographical areas that coal comes from.

  9. Jackol

    Saw a news piece recently where the Russians have invited the Chinese to join them in construction of a fusion/fission hybrid reactor.

    Not full fusion of course but described as another step on the way. The fusion side uses the Russian tokomak fusion design to supply neutrons to kick along the fission side. Not cheap or miniature but apparently way more efficient and heaps safer.

  10. Regarding Lockheed.

    If its real there will be a patent application. A lot of articles in science journals and magazines. etc.

    So far have seen nothing.

  11. Astro

    [I more than hope that it works.]

    Me too. Taming this stuff is the way forward.

    Joh B-P would be giving the Falcon a wash in preparation. 😀

  12. Raaraa@659

    Astrobleme@646

    BB

    I really hope Lockhead Martin get it worked out. A small and compact Fusion reactor like that would go a long way to solving a whole host of world problems…

    Sadly it may bankrupt a lot of the East Coast and possibly WA by making a lot of coal mining redundant and Gas redundant.

    The good thing is that if it can be adapted from Thorium, they’ll come out from around the same geographical areas that coal comes from.

    Thorium reactors are fission reactors, not fusion.

    That said, they do see to be an improvement on current technologies and I believe both the Chinese and Indians are working hard on them.

    Metallurgical coal will still be required for steel making and gas will be a useful transport fuel until other technologies mature. It will then have value as a chemical feedstock.

  13. Jackol

    Sure, that may be true.
    I certainly can’t defend the mini-fusion plant.
    I am just crossing my fingers.

    Nothing to ‘believe’ from their press release, so will await further details…

  14. Curriculum design, student testing, and the length and structure of the school day should be left entirely to thoughtful, rigorous people with relevant expertise. Teachers, with input from first-rate researchers in pedagogy and childhood development, should make these decisions. Politicians, bureaucrats, business leaders and culture warriors should butt out. Teachers should take parents, politicians and bureaucrats into their confidence about what they are doing and why. But the decision-making power should rest with teachers.

    We should also make it easier for people to build careers which shift back and forth between classroom teaching, administrative roles, and research. Free tuition and paid leave for teachers who pursue Master’s and PhD programs; wage premiums for teachers with postgraduate qualifications; and a culture which esteems teachers would contribute to this goal.

  15. [Hydro Tasmania warns record $242 million annual profit may be its last due to carbon tax scrapping]

    Hang in there Hydro Tas – one thing is certain: everything Abbott stands for is rapidly passing, and will inevitably be reversed.

  16. lefty e

    [and will inevitably be reversed.]

    That one should be.

    But just reversing things should not be any parties policy.

    Otherwise the ‘roller-coaster’ effect happens.

  17. [“Toward Victory; Kobane is Stalingrad and we will turn this city into a graveyard for ISIS rats.”]

    [The people joke about what will happen when the fighting eases – when the women will ask the men to wash the pots. “Common, get up, guys, you are no longer entitled to your old ways of life when our women lead the fight in defence of our city.” ]

  18. “In the past two years the people of Kobane have opened their doors to all Syrian refugees, including Sunnis, Christians and Alewites. Kurds have helped tens of thousands of non-Kurdish refugees. Now, a massacre is looming against us but nobody seems to care. We feel lonely in this fight.”

  19. BB

    Bw has either got lost walking the dog, found some Satin Bowerbirds to photograph or just having a nap.

    Meanwhile don’t hold back.

  20. [Bill Shorten ‏@billshortenmp
    .@TonyAbbottMHR warns of ‘substandard’ submarines if Aus-made prioritised. What an insult to Aus workers]
    vic
    The dill has no understanding of price and cost. Submarine fleets, in our case, are required to have a service life measured in decades. They need to have certain special capabilities and be heavily maintained. The cost of maintenance over the life of the vessel would exceed that of its manufacture.
    There is technology that is important for Australia to keep protected.
    The Navy needs to be assurted of a level of service that caould not be guranteed if we were beholden to another nation to maintain, repair or update our fleet.
    Sticker price as the sole determinant of purchase is for simpletons.

  21. [There’s huge advantages on the size compared to the ‘typical’ design for a fusion reactor (not that any designs work).]

    The whole point, as I saw it explained, was that you don’t need trillions of dollars to build a small reactor, or even a small prototype.

    The physical size of some of the existing experimental installations in Europe – all of which have to be machined to tolerances of thousandths of millimetres, even though they are huge – means that they take years to build and have the potential to cripple investing governments.

    A small reactor – IF it works – is a much smaller investment every step along the way, as well as having distinct advantages in operation, such as portability, and even the ability to install it in an aircraft.

    Sure, early days yet, but negative waves towards it are just a knee-jerk reaction.

    These Skunk Works guys don’t dick around. They mostly get things right (although there is the DC-10 and its cargo door).

  22. [BB

    Bw has either got lost walking the dog, found some Satin Bowerbirds to photograph or just having a nap. ]

    He was off to the dentist when last heard of yesterday. I do hope the Fang Doctor hasn’t been on the cheap wine again, or else it might shut BW up, and we wouldn’t want THAT to happen. What would we do without our daily Boerwar Pronouncement?

    Speaking of the Skunk Works thingmy, there was a video deep down in one of the articles that mentioned they’d modelled things pretty well, but were now looking for materials partners i.e. guys who can make the stuff the chamber walls need to be made of to prevent them vaporizing from the heat.

    100mW out of something the size of a truck is an awful lot of power to contain in a small volume.

    But what do I know? We need a Dutch Deliberation soon. I can barely stand the suspense.

  23. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, October 16, 2014 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    Some are skeptical…

    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/scientists-bash-lockheed-on-nuclear-fusion-2014-10

    I am waiting for the Boerwar Pronouncement.

    If it scores more than three Cheap Wines out of a possible five, then it’s a no-go.]

    Meh. Credulous is as credulous does. In this case, thrice bitten is not even once shy.

    Talk to me about this in 2024.

    We have just finished the ten, twenty, and thirty year anniversaries of the previous sets of fusion ten year predictions – not to mention the squilliards of sunk dollars.

    In the interim, let’s hope they don’t blow the place up.

  24. BK

    [vic
    The dill has no understanding of price and cost. Submarine fleets, in our case, are required to have a service life measured in decades. They need to have certain special capabilities and be heavily maintained. The cost of maintenance over the life of the vessel would exceed that of its manufacture.
    There is technology that is important for Australia to keep protected.
    The Navy needs to be assurted of a level of service that caould not be guranteed if we were beholden to another nation to maintain, repair or update our fleet.
    Sticker price as the sole determinant of purchase is for simpletons.]

    Even some of the dill’s SA colleagues have some clue amd are trying to tell him so

  25. [Sticker price as the sole determinant of purchase is for simpletons.]

    My old Dad used to always say, “Son, if a salesman tells you you’ll save money by spending more, then start running.”

    This is why he always stuck with his cheap Simca V8 Beaulieu, even when the gear box fell out of it. My father never doubted that car.

    This is what it looked like the day he bought it:

    And this is what it looked like when he finally upgraded to the Datsun 180B:

    I can still remember the crunch when he put the Beaulieu into first gear; the throaty roar of 8 mistimed French cylinders.

    I learned to do the double de-clutch on that car. It was a handy skill with Simcas. It was also good to have a mate along to help push-start it, too.

  26. BK

    [That duo is admirably suited to the task!]

    I’d much rather see Hugh White, Mark Thomson (ASPI guy who understands the Defence budget) and someone else who is independent of Govt make the decision.

  27. Boewar

    [The Greens would soon put a stop to it so no need to worry.]
    Well if they did they wouldn’t get my vote!!

    Would be crazy not to support it if it works… IF it works.

  28. I imagine that Lockheed Martin needs something to distract everyone from their latest work of engineering genius:

    The Joint Strike Fighter.

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