Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll records a solid shift in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings in the wake of recent war and terrorism talk, although the yield on voting intention is rather slight.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor leading 51-49, which is down a point on last time and equal with the time before (and also the same as the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday). Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up two), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (down three on last time, back to where they were the time before). Tony Abbott has enjoyed a big hike in his personal ratings, up six on approval to 41% and down two on disapproval to 52%, and he has gained a 41-37 lead on preferred prime minister after being level at 37-37 last time. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval 43%. Hat-tip to GhostWhoVotes, and of course The Australian.

Also out today was the regularly fortnightly Morgan poll, covering a sample of 2922 respondents from two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling. This recorded next to no change for the major parties on the primary vote – the Coalition on 38.5% and Labor on 37.5%, both up half a point on last fortnight – but has the minor parties moving in accordance with recent trends, the Greens being up 1.5% to 12% and Palmer United being down half a point to 4%. The previous poll was the only one recently published which failed to record a lift for the Greens, no doubt because half the survey period predated the bipartisan commitment to send military forces to Iraq. Labor gains half a point on both the respondent-allocated and previous election measures of two-party preferred, respectively leading 54.5-45.5 and 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 53-47 to Labor, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens down one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 4%. Also featured is a biannual gauge of attributes of the various parties, recording little change for Labor since March apart from a six point drop on “clear about what they stand for”, while the Liberal Party has weakened across the board, particularly with respect to “keeps its promises” (down nine points), “divided” (up eight points) and “looks after the interests of working people” (down six points). The poll adds further to a somewhat confusing picture on the public attitudes to the Iraq commitment, with 52% expressing approval for sending military personnel versus 34% disapproval. However, 51% say doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, versus only 15% for more safe. Questions on industrial relations laws indicate broad satisfaction with the status quo, 30% saying current laws balance the interests of employers and workers, and a fairly even 23% and 17% believing they favour employers and workers respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,151 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [By the way, do Brazilians looks like the stereo-typical terrorist?]

    I’ve heard of some South Americans being mistaken for Middle Easterns. Is that close enough?

  2. daretotread@893

    I think the whole shoot to kill mentality of the police is dangerous and must stop. Surely Police could have aimed at the guys arms, legs even belly ie disarm/disable not kill.

    Sorry but I think police are becoming trained psychopathic killers, or else cowardly weaklings.

    You have obviously never been trained to fire a pistol or thought about how quickly and thoughtfully you would react if you had been stabbed and a colleague stabbed multiple times.

    I have been trained to fire a pistol and know the limitations of the weapon. The type of pistol shooting police and others are taught is not the carefully aimed shooting you see on a target pistol range. It is the quick almost instinctive shot at the largest target – the torso. There is often no time to aim and that certainly appears to be the case last night.

  3. I heard the Shadow A-G on the ABC this morning who gave solid bi-partisan support to the government on the current situation. Given he is in a better position to have a full understanding of what has been planned I think it is just common sense to accept that the government, the opposition and the authorities have been acting in our collective best interests.

  4. zoidlord apparently there is always a higher order political agenda that rules even when it comes to the security of ordinary people going about their ordinary lives. Pretty sad really.

  5. In a busy area trying to hit precision targets (legs/arms), after being stabbed in the arm, might have ended in disaster. The officer allegedly fired only one shot – which was fatal.

    Let’s wait until corroborated facts emerge; but my early opinion is that they have done nothing wrong in this instance, and in fact seem to have handled themselves quite well in a very tricky situation.

    In a more general sense you could raise an argument that the government, with the urging of police and security agencies, has alienated and radicalised Muslims. Therefore the police are theoretically partially at fault for the situation today. That may be true, but you are asking alot for a person with a knife sticking out of their neck to keep this in mind as they are being stabbed to death.

  6. In a busy area trying to hit precision targets (legs/arms), after being stabbed in the arm, might have ended in disaster. The officer allegedly fired only one shot – which was fatal.

    Let’s wait until corroborated facts emerge; but my early opinion is that they have done nothing wrong in this instance, and in fact seem to have handled themselves quite well in a very tricky situation.

    In a more general sense you could raise an argument that the government, with the urging of police and security agencies, has alienated and radicalised Muslims. Therefore the police are theoretically partially at fault for the situation today. That may be true, but you are asking alot for a person with a knife sticking out of their neck to keep this in mind as they are being stabbed to death.

  7. On the suggestion Labor should commit to a review of National Security: Brett Walker SC was retained by the previous Labor govt to do just that. The arrangement was terminated by the current govt.

    Walker made about 25 recommendations to govt – none were acted on.

  8. I think these polls are a bump and not a true indication of public sentiment towards the govt. Bush and Howard both got bumps milking terror in ’03. It got Bush over the line in ’04 but helped do for McCain in ’08. The longer the govt talks about terror the more the impression is given of avoiding talking about other issues. Avoidance implies a lack of confidence in the policy and that for an incumbent is political death. The govt has opened the door on many issues and simply walked away. Just because the public displays an interest in foreign affairs does not mean they are no longer interested in Heath, education, employment and the environment. I think the govt has made an error. It looks like they can only juggle 1 ball at a time.

  9. @davidwh/911

    This whole Muslim thing is a social problem, thus requires time and social policies, not police, death threats, bomb threats etc.

  10. Interesting that the young man shot had recently graduated from the Springvale Islamic College.

    I am familiar with that school having been past it many times.

    The only feature of note to me was that it proudly flies the Australian flag.

    It has no reputation of being a centre of radical teaching and I think a lot of the teachers are not Muslims. All very ordinary.

    That said, my preference would be for ALL students to attend public schools and mix with kids of all backgrounds.

  11. [ On the suggestion Labor should commit to a review of National Security: Brett Walker SC was retained by the previous Labor govt to do just that. The arrangement was terminated by the current govt.

    Walker made about 25 recommendations to govt – none were acted on. ]

    Ctar1, you are just full of good news wot?? 🙁

    Still, i reckon worth doing again and if that is the Abbott Govts record on it well and good. Still worth doing, the politics of it will favour the ALP over the Fibs more, and there is a decent reference base of prior art to inform a broader, better resourced inquiry.

  12. [900
    Player One

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-terror-shooting-numan-haider-planned-to-behead-victoria-police-officers-drape-bodies-in-is-flag-20140924-10lb4i.html#ixzz3ECdfmMkd

    If true (and I accept that this still is a big ‘if’) then this is as much down to Abbott and Brandis as to this sad young man..]

    The Government need to do far more to embrace the Muslim communities and to make it clear they are to be respected and treated as any other – with dignity and warmth. We all need to do far more to stand together against fear and violence. We really are entitled to expect this from our leaders – from all of them – from the PM and the Leader of the Opposition as much as the rest.

    However, this is not the same thing as making the claim that the Government caused the death of this young Australian. This is a tragedy for us all and should not be used as an occasion for yet more bitter point-scoring. This death as tragedy. It would be unforgivable if it were also turned into a partisan travesty.

  13. 892

    Victorian police now carry telescopic batons as they are easier to carry and do pretty much the same job.

    The riot unit(s) may still have full batons, I do not know.

  14. imacca – I think the 25 recommendations were just fixes that he thought should be done first to fix some ambiguities.

    The substantive reshaping he hadn’t started. If the ALP were to do this he would be the obvious person to engage.

  15. Folks are dumb near where I come from.

    [Bundaberg Rugby League discussed changing the name of one of the teams participating in the grand final to avoid confusion with a terrorist group.
    The Isis Devils almost became the Childers Devils because it shares the same name as the Islamic State, which is commonly referred to by its acronym ISIS.
    Leading up to the match, Isis District Rugby League Football Club president and former mayor of Isis Shire Council Bill Trevor said he was informed by the BRL that it had discussed with ABC Grandstand – which was broadcasting the game – that the club would be referred to as Childers Devils due to events overseas.]

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/isis-causing-issues-for-isis-devils-20140924-10l5nx.html#ixzz3EDIHBihY

  16. Rua

    I heard the Grandstand folk talking about the Isis Devils in the lead up, and the Isis Highway. I could imagine ASIO going nuts with all the pings. How many of those devils would be on Team Australia, I wondered.

    Hearing that they had won an *elimination* final added to the piquancy. It must have been hard to avoid some tacky puns. Apparently they were up against ‘Wests’ which was handy.

    😉

  17. Speaking of ISIS, there’s a building down on Queens Road in Melbourne with the big title “ISIS” on the top. You can see it from across the Albert Park. There’s no rush to get that changed by the looks of it.

    bemused@917

    Interesting that the young man shot had recently graduated from the Springvale Islamic College.

    I am familiar with that school having been past it many times.

    The only feature of note to me was that it proudly flies the Australian flag.

    It has no reputation of being a centre of radical teaching and I think a lot of the teachers are not Muslims. All very ordinary.

    That said, my preference would be for ALL students to attend public schools and mix with kids of all backgrounds.

    I guess if it is a registered private school which follows the curriculum, it shouldn’t be a breeding ground for radical teaching (though there’s a possibility that radical elements might lurk around among the student body attempting to recruit others). Neither can they discriminate against staff based on religious background.

    In contrast, I got knocked back for a job application once at a school which I believe has something to do with me refusing to fill up the field marked “religion”. The manager who I spoke to later as a post-interview review said I was the preferred applicant but ultimately the principal made the choice.

    The principal brought up the fact that I left this field blank during an interview with him and stressed the fact that he would like all his staff to attend the religious service. It wasn’t such a big deal to me if not for the fact that I went on a 2-stage interview for that role all the way in Lilydale.

  18. Speaking of IS, ISIS, ISIL, whatever, I’ve been wondering about our use of their name. Just because they call themselves “Islamic State”, does that mean we (our politicians and media) have to call them that?

    I think our largely disengaged public hear the name Islamic State and infer that they somehow represent Islam. This is the sort of misunderstanding that is creating so much fear and loathing in the community.

    I mean if I started up a child trafficking ring under the name “True Catholics”, or a paedophile outfit and called it “Loyal Anglicans”, would the media report our activities using those names? At the very least they would say “the criminal outfit that likes to identify itself as….”

    Not sure what would be a good alternative name to use for the mob that calls itself Islamic State, but would love to hear some suggestions.

    If the media co-operated I think this is a very simple measure that could help to take some of the heat out of the discussion.

  19. briefly@919

    [ However, this is not the same thing as making the claim that the Government caused the death of this young Australian. ]

    I didn’t say the government caused it, I said they had made it much more likely that something like this would happen.

    Which – sadly for the young man concerned – appears to be exactly what has happened.

    If you sow fear, you reap violence.

  20. Spray@937


    Not sure what would be a good alternative name to use for the mob that calls itself Islamic State, but would love to hear some suggestions.

    If the media co-operated I think this is a very simple measure that could help to take some of the heat out of the discussion.

    I think there is an alternative name that they hate, I vaguely remember it started with D.

  21. Rundle does a good job of summarising the blundering incoherence that is the ‘coalition of the concerned’ campaign on ISIS: http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/09/24/rundle-embracing-islamists-abroad-while-fomenting-terrorism-at-home/

    First dog does his usual brilliant job of highlighting how terrorists groupings and the Anglophone right live in a curiously symbiotic relationship, dependent on one another:
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2014/sep/24/first-dog-terrorism?CMP=fb_gu

  22. Re Spray @937: a good name would be the transliteration of the Arabic Acronym: Daesh, sometimes spelled DAIISH or Da’esh. It is short for Dawlat al-Islamiyah f’al-Iraq wa al-Sham, which I believe means the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria. Apparently Daesh hate it because it sounds like an Arabic word meaning something like defeat or crush underfoot.

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/isis-islamic-state-isil-or-daesh-what-the-different-names-mean-and-why-it-matters-30609895.html

  23. I was actually rather puzzled as to why that Funniest Home Video ISIL put out the other day singled out the “spiteful and filthy French” for special vitriol. I guess the Daesh thing really got to them.

  24. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/poll-roundup-terror-focus-improves.html

    Poll Roundup: Terror Focus Improves Abbott’s Ratings
    2PP Aggregate: 51.5 to Labor

    Also, I made a methods change to my aggregate this week – it now uses a hybrid model of the 2PP for a given poll that is derived both from the published 2PP and the published primaries. I made this change just before the current Newspoll, which is a fine example of exactly why I did it. This is documented in a special supplement which I was firmly expecting to be the least read thing on my site all year (except it is now beating the main article.) :

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/wonk-central-what-do-we-do-with-poll.html
    Wonk Central: What Do We Do With The Poll Rounding Problem?

    The supplement has been rated Wonk Factor 5 and even carries its own warning sign.

  25. While you’re here Kevin …

    [An alternative method – I’m not sure if BT does something like this or not – is to aggregate off the primaries of various polls (after adjusting them for whatever house effects and bias adjustments one likes), then get an aggregated primary total and convert it to a 2PP (either on a national basis or with some allowance for state issues).]

    Yes, that’s exactly what BT does. Or at least, that’s what the numbers on the table show – individual 2PP results are used for the chart. So the 2PP in the table, and in the headlines for my blog posts, is not exactly the same as what you see in the chart.

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