ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

The latest monthly automated phone poll from ReachTEL finds no change on two-party preferred, but reflects the trend elsewhere in having the Greens up and Palmer United down.

ReachTEL’s monthly federal poll for the Seven Network is unchanged on the previous result in putting Labor ahead 51-49 on two-party preferred, and is similarly stable with respect to the major parties’ primary votes, with the Coalition on 41.6% (up 0.4%) and Labor on 37.4% (up 0.1%). Reflecting other polling over this time, it has the Greens up (by 0.7% to 10.5%) and Palmer United down (by 1.4% to 5.3%). There are also leadership ratings which find a shift from poor to the intermediate result of satisfactory in Tony Abbott’s case, and questions on Iraq which show support for sending military planes but opposition to sending troops. In a separately published release today derived from the same poll, ReachTEL found stronger support than I might have anticipated for parliamentary seats being reserved for indigenous Australians, with 36.7% supportive and 43.1% opposed. As usual, this was an automated phone poll with a big sample of 3470, conducted last night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,365 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. I really haven’t kept too abreast of the Essendon thing, but taking a step back and looking at it from just a political point of view, it seems to me that the club and its coach think they’re too elite to touch. FAR too arrogant and full of themselves. Legends in their own lunchtime.

    It took the Federal Court to cut them down to size and to remind them (and us) that they’re just ordinary people who have to obey the law like everyone else. If they cheat the drug laws, then they go down. The games they won while using illegal drugs were cheating. Pure and simple. Anyone can win when they cheat. There is no honour in it, and a lot of shame.

  2. briefly

    There’s a far more compelling moral issue involved here – the need to slow down and then reverse the rate of growth of carbon emissions.

    That is indeed the decisive ethical issue here, followed closely by some attendant ones — preserving hydrocarbons for use where they may be hard to replace, protecting air quality, protecting the sea from carbon augmentation and so forth. Most people aren’t aware that coal plants are sources of actinides and mercury.

    We don’t have the luxury of time and we should apply the resources we have at our disposal, including the balance sheets of the CF generators.

    I agree. If the state says that ‘Direct Action’ rather than ‘a speculators’ picnic’ is required and places a cap on budget allocations then I’m inclined to hold them to their word and say to them “So get on with ‘Direct Action’ then and be sure that you avoid ‘subsidies’ and simply require the polluting agencies to stop polluting and to meet their obligations not to harm the public”. I would then turn to business and say “this is what you, through your voices, your wallets and often you silence proposed. You dare not object now. Your conduct will be regulated in the service of the public”.

    Isn’t it enough simply to be right and to achieve change?

    It is enough when the right change is achieved in a timely and efficient manner that creates a robust ethical and political foundation for more positive change. Let us take the power away from the spivs and settle it in public hands.

  3. Tears at ABC as talents depart

    Now the bravely outspoken broadcaster Quentin Dempster says the cuts will be punitive and ideological. “What’s most confronting is to see the testicular hold Rupert now has on Tony

    Abbott

    ,” Dempster said. “I appeal to the Prime Minister to demonstrate to the Australian people that he’s his own man and not a creature of Rupert Murdoch.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/private-sydney/private-sydney-politicians-continue-to-shine-at-the-ernies-20140919-10ipbh.html#ixzz3DnayfUGV

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    I’m sorry but when these rabid mongrels talk about non-believers being punished it makes my blood boil. The cynical use of the religiously damaged (from an early age usually) people by those with base means is appalling.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/terror-raids-the-rising-fear-in-sydneys-suburbs-20140919-10jctz.html
    Preventative detention laws being for possibly the first time used to detain three from the terror raids.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-terrorism-suspects-held-under-powers-introduced-by-howard-government-20140919-10ji7y.html
    Richard Ackland examines the dawn raids.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/19/sydney-dawn-counter-terrorism-raids-why-now-and-why-so-few-answers
    Mike Seccombe – the real threat of terror laws.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/09/20/terror-laws-also-threaten-right-protest/1411135200d584d8b2-38b5-4e6a-b6be
    Michelle Grattan. From saving to spending with Parliament House security.
    https://theconversation.com/parliament-ramps-up-security-only-months-after-scaling-it-back-31296
    Are we entering a war without end asks a academic.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/is-australia-entering-a-war-without-end-20140918-10iaau.html
    John Howard talks about like after politics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/john-howard-speaks-exclusively-to-fairfax-about-life-after-politics-20140919-10im6k.html
    Abbott in Arnhem Land – a display of farce and cynicism. John Pilger.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/19/tony-abbott-in-arnhem-land-a-display-of-farce-and-cynicism
    Jaqui Maley and Headmaster Abbott’s ministerial report car.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/headmaster-tony-abbott-hands-out-the-report-cards-20140918-10is4s.html
    The Saturday Paper looks at Johnston and Bishop as Ministers.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/09/20/david-johnstons-making-defence-minister/1411135200479b4bf9-9222-4ab8-873b#.VBydnfmSyIk

  5. Section 2 . . .

    Qantas – flying blind.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/09/20/turbulent-times-qantas-fights-survival/14111352008dc5390d-cfd7-45ca-9198
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/09/19/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-63/
    Essendon’s woes may deepen very much further after Middleton J strongly rejected its and James Hird’s submissions to the Federal Court.
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/cronulla-sharks/essendon-bombers-players-could-face-12month-bans-following-federal-court-ruling-20140919-10jhnf.html
    Caroline Wilson dissects the verdict and the effects it will have on the club.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/bombers-face-crippling-legal-bill-after-court-orders-club-to-pay-costs-20140919-10jhz4.html
    The ageing of Australia’s scientist is a worry.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/ageing-of-australias-scientists-creating-a-void-in-nations-future-research-workforce-20140919-10j714.html
    The secrecy surrounding WestConnex is playing havoc with the real estate market.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/confusion-reigns-as-westconnex-hits-property-values-20140919-10ikb0.html
    Former ICAC commissioner warns against changing its powers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/former-icac-commissioner-david-ipp-warns-changing-its-powers-would-be-a-tragedy-20140919-10ivyd.html
    Be alert AND alarmed! The police are astounded at the extent and methods of paedophilia in Australia.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/scale-of-paedophile-activity-shocks-police-20140918-10io0k.html
    He’s not the only one!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/archbishop-of-canterbury-justin-welby-questions-the-existence-of-god-20140919-10jary.html
    Idiot Bernardi and ratbag Lambi get some pushback from the Muslim community.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/muslim-leaders-lash-out-at-jacqui-lambie-and-cory-bernardi-20140919-10jgph.html

  6. Section 3 . . .

    And Bill Shorten urges Abbott to haul Bernardi in over “ignorant remarks”. Predictably there was no comment available from the PM’s office.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-calls-on-tony-abbott-to-haul-in-cory-bernardi-over-ignorant-comments-20140918-10iq03.html
    John Birmingham fills in for Mike Carlton it seems. Worth a read.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/an-a-for-tony-abbott-for-bluster-and-a-d-for-the-haircut-of-the-week-20140918-10iu05.html
    The scandal that is the Depreciated Optimised Replacement Cost. We are paying twice for this energy cost component.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/dorc-rort-the-art-of-getting-energy-infrastructure-paid-for-twice-20140919-10jega.html
    Who is paying for the Abbott government’s propaganda in our power bills?
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/whos-paying-for-the-abbott-governments-propaganda-in-our-power-bills,6913
    Phil Coorey – the RET has proven to be resilient as well as renewable.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/ret_has_proven_resilient_as_well_TSr2xY7KHFigYKgyKkMPkO
    Alan Moir takes top guns Abbott and Obama to the air.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Great work from David Pope complete with pixilation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    John Spooner – it’s a bit sick this one.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/john-spooner-20090716-dmsv.html

  7. Having a mild muse – as one does – on the performance of the government so far, and have a sneaky suspicion that what they’re hearing about their re election prospects is far worse than anything in the public domain.

    Now, this may all be creditting them with a few more brain cells than they actually possess, but on the other hand, if they’re dumber than I think they are they’d be unable to breathe unassisted.

    The Coalition obviously expected the Budget to be mildly unpopular. They bent over backwards to make sure they didn’t target what they saw as their main constituency. They made sure they’d ticked off all their ideological markers. So, even though the underclasses might squeal, they thought they’d keep their core believers on side (and may have over estimated how many of those they were).

    By making the Medicare co-payment non-essential (by not linking it to savings measures), they thought they had a Distraction that they could, if necessary, keep banging on about until the next Budget. Sending the bulk of the money to medical research was going to counter the idea that they were anti-science and appeal to the masses.

    (The last minute, cobbled together air of this levy hasn’t been examined in much detail, but it strongly suggests that it had a purpose beyond just being a step in the direction of dismantling Medicare. Alternatively, of course, Dutton hadn’t actually come up with anything to cut in his Department, but that would be to suggest he was slack and/or ignorant, and that doesn’t sound in character..)

    Obviously the reaction to the Budget took them totally by surprise, as the various strategies adopted to try and sell it afterwards made clear.

    Now, they’ve abandoned any attempt to fight for it and gone straight to the External Menace so beloved by floundering governments.

    That they’ve had to push this button so soon suggests that they’re being told – in terms so simple and emphatic that even they can understand them – that the Budget is unsellable and that they have nothing else to save them.

    They’ve basically thrown in the towel when it comes to the idea that they can win over voters simply by improving their performance.

    That’s a dire situation for a government just over a year old.

    If the External Menace thing doesn’t work, one can almost imagine them chucking it in.

  8. Good Morning

    Zoomster

    I agree with you but hope you are wrong on the chucking in the towel bit.

    If they chuck in the towel thinking they will not get a second term they will have nothing to lose by going for broke on the idealogical stuf and seeing how much they can get Palmer to vote yes for.

  9. “@AndrewBGreene: The federal government has confirmed three people held on preventative detention orders following Sydney raids have been released”

  10. 104
    Fran Barlow

    The present excess-capacity in the electricity market is being used to argue for a cut in the RE share of output. Rather than accepting such cuts, we really need to see the scrapping of obsolete CF capacity and then further shifts in the renewable/non-renewable ratio. We have to pursue this regardless of fluctuations in the growth rate in electricity demand in the decades ahead.

    I’m not sure that it matters too much how we do this as long as we do it. If that means finding ways to exploit the balance sheets of CF generators, we should do that too….

    Anyway, I’m glad to see the divide between us is not so large. If differences can be creative at times, they can also become self-defeating. We’ve had more than enough of that already.

  11. Morning all.

    Are we seeing a similar link between the coalition parties to property developers in the west?

    Parliamentary documents reveal Finbar paid a $320,000 deposit on both lots totalling 13,386sqm in June 2010 and the remaining $6.72 million in December that year – 18 months before Cabinet’s decision to invest in Pelago East. The Government valued the total site between $10.5 million and $13.6 million.

    Finbar was transferred the land for $7.04 million to prepare the site, including water, electricity and sewerage works.

    Asked whether the sale was a discount, Mr Redman said it was “the best value” of four bids from developers to LandCorp in December 2009. Finbar and its entities donated $75,000 to the Liberals in the 2012-13 election year.

    Hanssen Pty Ltd, Finbar’s long-term preferred builder and significant shareholder, made its first recent donation to the Nationals of $50,000 two weeks after Cabinet signed off on the $30 million investment.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/25063590/apartment-sale-preceded-cabinet-nod/

    Govt denies Cabinet decision was influenced by the donations, but on paper it’s not a good look.

  12. Now, they’ve abandoned any attempt to fight for it and gone straight to the External Menace so beloved by floundering governments.

    I also think the hollowness of their policy agenda is also why they’ve chosen to focus on international affairs so soon in their first term, letting domestic matters slide as you’ve suggested.

    Question is, can they keep doing this for another 2 years?

  13. I also think the hollowness of their policy agenda is also why they’ve chosen to focus on international affairs so soon in their first term, letting domestic matters slide as you’ve suggested.

    Question is, can they keep doing this for another 2 years?

    Hard to tell but it is fantastic they have gone so hard so early plenty of time for it to fade / grow boring / stuff up / illustrate their chronic dishonesty and amazing lack of ability.

  14. 102
    Bushfire Bill

    Posted Saturday, September 20, 2014 at 7:19 am | PERMALINK
    I really haven’t kept too abreast of the Essendon thing, but taking a step back and looking at it from just a political point of view, it seems to me that the club and its coach think they’re too elite to touch. FAR too arrogant and full of themselves. Legends in their own lunchtime.

    It took the Federal Court to cut them down to size and to remind them (and us) that they’re just ordinary people who have to obey the law like everyone else. If they cheat the drug laws, then they go down. The games they won while using illegal drugs were cheating. Pure and simple. Anyone can win when they cheat. There is no honour in it, and a lot of shame.

    The Essendon saga is easy to understand. James Hird is a narcissist.

  15. I had not realised this re cronulla sharks

    Secondly, the Essendon program of peptide use was almost industrial in its scale, lasting for a year, with multiple injections off site and endorsed by the football department.
    Cronulla’s was ad hoc, experimental and involved two to three weeks of injections before it was stopped by the club doctor.
    Hird’s position is now untenable, particularly if his presence inspires Essendon players to take a class action against the club for the loss of contract earnings and damage to their careers. Hird’s 12-month, AFL-imposed ban has expired, while Cronulla coach Shane Flanagan has still to convince the NRL he has completed his re-education process.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/cronulla-sharks/essendon-bombers-players-could-face-12month-bans-following-federal-court-ruling-20140919-10jhnf.html#ixzz3Do4P96T9

  16. 118
    confessions

    I also think the hollowness of their policy agenda is also why they’ve chosen to focus on international affairs so soon in their first term, letting domestic matters slide as you’ve suggested.

    This is all of a piece with Abbott’s worldview. He has repeatedly said the first duty of the Government is to protect the security of the nation. It’s pompously stated, but that’s how he sees things. Other things – social and environmental security, economic dynamism – might be important to some, but they are subordinate.

    Personally, I think Abbott just hates nearly everything Labor has ever achieved simply because he despises Labor. It follows that anytime an opportunity presents itself he will take a battering ram to Labor’s accomplishments. Labor used its commanding position during WW2 to create the major features of the welfare system and the modern economy. If he happens to be in power during a similar crisis, he will use the opportunity to destroy Labor’s works.

    Abbott is a wrecker. He is not a creator nor a unifier. He’s here to sack the place.

  17. 118
    confessions

    Posted Saturday, September 20, 2014 at 9:01 am | PERMALINK
    Now, they’ve abandoned any attempt to fight for it and gone straight to the External Menace so beloved by floundering governments.

    I also think the hollowness of their policy agenda is also why they’ve chosen to focus on international affairs so soon in their first term, letting domestic matters slide as you’ve suggested.

    Question is, can they keep doing this for another 2 years?

    Another question is do the public want to keep hearing this for two more years. I am already sick to death of hearing about the terror threat. It is giving me the frickin pips

  18. Briefly

    Anyway, I’m glad to see the divide between us is not so large. If differences can be creative at times, they can also become self-defeating. We’ve had more than enough of that already.

    Indeed. I can’t recall us having too many serious disputes about practical policy or the broader ethical paradigm within which policy should be devised. I suspect we’d be sharply at odds over matters of governance structure, and I recall us having different views about the states, and resource rent policy, but like many here, I value your contributions as intellectually robust, made in good faith and as such to be commended to those seeking a better world.

  19. Essendon’s legal bill was $2M, and ASADA’s presumably similar. So Essendon so up for about $4M.

    They should take that out of their salary cap as it is a de facto payment of their players legal bills.

  20. Meanwhile i have been following the Royal Commission and next week they will be make onto the CFMEU. Yesterday they focussed on the HSU. Even the Commissioner is getting embarrassed by the farce this Commission has become

  21. briefly:

    It’s impossible not to conclude from his actions that Abbott isn’t a highly vindictive person. So far all it’s been is about retribution and settling scores. He’s still wearing only blue ties for goodness sake, nearly 2 years after Gillard first mentioned it.

  22. victoria:

    I was sick of it after boats, well and truly over it by the time Abbott latched onto MH17. Now? Not feeling like watching the news ever again!

  23. The currency was weak overnight, finishing round its lows at USD0.8925. Recent moves in the AUD suggest the long overdue depreciation is now in train. Hmmm.

  24. victoria

    The Royal Commissions are Abbott’s signature. As briefly just said Abbott is a wrecker, a destroyer.

    There has been nothing constructive come out of these royal commissions so far.

  25. Victoria – re Cronulla (my team)

    I have been stating this since all the trouble started. The Sharks are a low hanging fruit when it comes to the NRL and investigations.

    The Club has run on a shoestring budget for zonks and cannot compete with the big boys – sharks running budget is about 1/5th of the top four or five clubs.

    Now – Dank was at Manly for 4 to 6 years – what was his job there… “nothing to see here says the NRL”

    The side that won last night, last years Premiers…
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/drugs-cloud-over-roosters-as-players-blood-results-found-on-criminals-phone-20130925-2ues6.html
    and
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-26/sydney-roosters-dragged-into-nrl-drugs-saga-after-hgh-allegation/4981518

    Nothing to see there either….

    Anyone that thinks that the Sharks and Essendon in their respective comps were / are the only sides to have gone outside the permitted guidelines are dreaming.

    And the poor old Sharks ran Dank out of town as soon as they found out what he was up too. 11 bloody weeks max at the club

  26. confessions

    I dont watch news. I listen to radio most of day, and sick of the first words being about PM Abbott and terror. I am already at the stage of yelling at the radio. 😀

  27. Essendon’s legal bill was $2M, and ASADA’s presumably similar. So Essendon so up for about $4M.

    They should take that out of their salary cap as it is a de facto payment of their players legal bills.

    Yep and Little, Hird and the whole board should go … it is a disgrace, they did the wrong thing, they got caught they fought it on a technicality and lost badly. An appeal should be out of the question.

  28. Jeffemu

    You may have missed my point. The Sharks only dabbled with these peptides for a few weeks. On the other hand, Essendon went the full monty.

  29. Tasmania’s News Limited paper had no terror on its front page.

    Just salmon research and a proposal for a restaurant on Mt Wellington.

    A nice change.

  30. confessions

    Govt denies Cabinet decision was influenced by the donations, but on paper it’s not a good look.

    That’s the problem how do you prove cause & effect

    Only solution is to ban developer / mining / Defence contractor / builder ….. donations, anyone that benefits from Government decisions

  31. Yep and Little, Hird and the whole board should go … it is a disgrace

    I can’t understand why the members aren’t demanding this. And I agree about an appeal. It’s sheer arrogance to keep insisting on their innocence when everyone knows otherwise.

  32. confessions

    James hird should have stepped down from the get go. He could have salvaged his reputation. Instead his conduct throughout, has only served to show what a self centred narcissist he is.

  33. sceptic:

    Are Cabinet papers admissable to the CCC in the event this story was to reveal the suggestion of corruption?

    In any case what concerns me thus far is that the govt sold that land at anywhere from $3M to $5M below its valuation.

  34. briefly
    Posted Saturday, September 20, 2014 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    The currency was weak overnight, finishing round its lows at USD0.8925. Recent moves in the AUD suggest the long overdue depreciation is now in train. Hmmm.

    Hmmm indeed regarding implications.

    Markus Padley –

    if international investors believe the Aussie dollar has started a new downtrend, let me tell you, there will be a host of asset allocation meetings this month that conclude it is time to sell Australian equities or, at best, lower their MSCI Australia weightings, because faced with a falling dollar international institutions stop caring about what they are invested in and start worrying about Australia as a whole.

    This wouldn’t matter were it not for the fact that 40 per cent of the money invested in the Australian equity market is invested by overseas investors, mostly by big fund managers and hedge funds and it is doubly leveraged to success and failure, doesn’t have to be here and the people in charge have to make decisions quickly, not slowly, because any money invested from overseas that is unhedged will be getting nailed.

    So the US market can go up, but if the Aussie dollar goes down we can easily decouple and go down – and if the US equity market goes down as well, we’ll go down more. So tempting as it is to buy stocks that benefit from the dollar going down, it rather misses the point that if the dollar is going down, the market is going down as well.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/falling-australian-dollar-leaves-international-investors-exposed-20140918-10irnz.html#ixzz3DoCW6r69

  35. 130
    confessions

    briefly:

    He’s still wearing only blue ties for goodness sake, nearly 2 years after Gillard first mentioned it.

    It’s that social affiliation thing again – social expectancy guiding conduct, even of a PM. Abbott probably responds strongly to visual stimuli. He has an affinity for uniforms and the coded hierarchies and order they depict. He’s also comfortable with public role-playing (truck-driving, fire-fighting, swim-racing, fish-filleting, labouring…) and must derive a lot of energy from physical activity.

    He’s far from cerebral. Which may be one of the reasons that he had such a strong reaction to Gillard’s lampooning…

  36. fess and vic

    In the end, the AFL and the other clubs will end up paying the legal fees for Essendon’s frivolous “the law doesn’t apply to us” legal case. They will plead hardship when it comes to the equalisation measures and cough up less than their share.

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