BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The Greens have retained their Iraq-driven gain from last week on the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has stood almost perfectly still.

With the fortnightly cycles of Newspoll and Morgan coinciding, and other pollsters having gone a bit quiet lately, the polling calendar has fallen into a pattern of on weeks and off weeks. This one was an “off”, with only the regular Essential Research to relieve the monotony. The poll may have recorded a move to Labor on two-party preferred, but there wasn’t much behind it so far as the primary vote numbers were concerned. This makes for the dullest week ever on BludgerTrack, on which the biggest change is an increase in the Greens vote by all of 0.2%. That said, the Greens result is of genuine interest, in that the party has held on to its 1.4% lift from last week, leaving little room for doubt that the bipartisan consensus on Iraq has been to its advantage. This week’s seat projection is unchanged on last week, but there’s at least a little something happening under the surface here, with Labor up a seat in Western Australia and down one in Victoria. There were no new results this week for the leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

754 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Richard Chirgwin retweeted
    Jess Hill ‏@jessradio 2m

    2/2 Bush on the USS Lincoln in 2003, declaring victory in Iraq… Is that the parallel they intended to draw with the govt’s asylum policy?

  2. Graeme Innes retweeted
    Susan Carland ‏@SusanCarland 40m

    Visibly Muslim women always 1st target of Islamophobic attack after security threat.Cheers @corybernardi for starting

  3. dtt

    the seat is held by an independent, who was elected in a by election which Labor didn’t contest, so I would assume that (if the poll is accurate) the Labor vote is going to him.

  4. Cas, you write,

    [For what it’s worth, as far as I can tell you were just going for a pithy comment. That doesn’t change the fact that “stick to having babies” is a highly gendered put-down (you wouldn’t see the same being used against a male, no matter how much paternity leave they’d recently taken) and as such is sexist.]

    You might have a point if Leigh herself hadn’t made such a big thing of discussing motherhood and having babies in the ladies’ magazines.

    And her absence from 7.30 has certainly all been publicised around this too.

    My personal position is that she should not be on the show as she is just an attack dog, confusing malevolance with hard-hitting journalism.

    Her interview with Joe Hockey was about issues that were discussed months ago, before her confinement: polls, Joe’s standing in the party, the $7 Medicare upfront payment etc. It was not only old news, but it was nasty old news, and pointless.

    She’d be much better off doing something she is clearly good at and likes fussing about.

    To concur with her sentiments is not sexist.

  5. Who could think BB is sexist?

    It will always stick in my mind how he lectured a sexual abuse survivor that they deserved no sympathy and should just get over it.

    A more egalitarian person never did exist.

  6. I liked this comment from another Crikey page about “climate change is crap” people.

    [Providing more evidence to climate change deniers is just like tipping a bucket of water on a drowning man. It just induces more panic, more anger and more thrashing about.]

  7. [65
    tielec
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2014 at 10:57 am | PERMALINK
    Who could think BB is sexist?

    It will always stick in my mind how he lectured a sexual abuse survivor that they deserved no sympathy and should just get over it.

    A more egalitarian person never did exist.]
    It was not BBs post that surprised me so much as the absence of any howls of outrage from our feral feminists.

    Can you imagine the response if I had said such a thing? 😮

  8. This ain’t good

    [Court documents are expected to reveal that this morning’s huge anti-terror raids were aimed at a cell which planned to behead a member of the public in Sydney.

    The documents are expected to say that the plan involved snatching a random member of the public in Sydney, draping them in an Islamic State flag and beheading them on camera.]

  9. guytaur

    [ @GuardianAus: ‘Budget emergency’ denied by 63 leading Australian economists http://t.co/wcfBH3uDgg ]

    Gosh, do try and keep up – the whole “Budget Emergency” thing is so last week!

    This week it’s “Terrorist Emergency” – the Australian Parliamentary Police have apparently discovered that there are still some ALP voters skulking in Western Sydney. How dare they???

  10. [Fiji election: Frank Bainimarama on the brink of easy victory

    With more than half of the ballots counted, the leader of the Fiji First party has a compelling lead with 233,005 votes, or 60.16 per cent.]

    Yep, after parties/ candidates under the 5% threshold are excluded Fiji first will get about 2/3rds of the seats.

    Since they were hoping for “all 50 seats” it may be a disappointng result :p

  11. [ This ain’t good

    Court documents are expected to reveal that this morning’s huge anti-terror raids were aimed at a cell which planned to behead a member of the public in Sydney. ]

    If true its a major bummer. However, we are in the VERY early stages of the reporting on this and at the moment i would be sceptical of claims made in the media. Particularly the kind that seem tailor made to drive the shock jock divisive outrage meter.

  12. imacca

    There is no particular reason to think that it is not true. The question are, assuming it is true:

    (1) Do isolated events such as this justify the general erosion of our democracy?
    (2) Is it a casus belli?
    (3) Has going to war against muslim nations since 1991 been a driver?

  13. @Raaraa/61

    Perhaps we should all go back to being naked and wearing a leaf, that should be a policy for Greens and Labor as a counter to Extremism of the right.

  14. [ There is no particular reason to think that it is not true. ]

    I’d prefer evidence that it is rather than a media hacks “scoop” about something that serious. I would be concerned that it may turn out to be a “grain of truth” somewhere in it context that is convenient for the forces of outrage, anger and chaos rather than the actual focus of the raid. Anyhow, we’ll see pretty quickly if people are going to front court as rapidly as i would expect they would in a matter like this.

  15. [The mejia will do anything to prop up Tony’s war.]

    Given the extent of today’s police actions and the fact the alleged beheading plot is reported by the ABC I think the possibility this is all a stunt to prop up the Abbott government at somewhere around 0%.

  16. [ Freya Newman Pleads Guilty Over Frances Abbott’s $60k Secret Scholarship Leak: The Downing Centre played host … http://bit.ly/1tjneAt ]

    Freya Newman could do two years for ‘outing’ Abbot’s lies, hypocrisy and dishonesty.

    You mess with Abbott, you pay the price. A nasty, nasty man.

  17. Considering that in our neighborhood recently had a major drug bust, not a terror bust, a drug bust,

    Our local paper called our city a “Major Meth Hub”.

    So what Abbott and Newman has been doing after all these years? Their arses.

  18. davidwh

    The police can choose to do things quietly, or with a great fanfare. Look at the treatment that Craig Thomson got. So there could well be a bit of stunt factor in this.

    That said, if there is even a grain of truth in the story, that is extremely worrying.

  19. Meanwhile in the State that no longer needs an independent anti-corruption commissioner, Campbell, Newman, wjho promised not to sell the electricity network, is leasing it for 50 or 99 years instead! 🙂
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-17/queensland-treasurer-tim-nicholls-backs-down-on-asset-sales/5749494?WT.ac=localnews_brisbane

    Quite apart from the duplicity, why 50+ years? Studies into PPP deals in the UK showed that the taxpayer got almost no extra benefit in the price paid for a PPP deal being longer than 20 years. The private consortia were only concerned with their risk in the early period when they were paying down the debt. Offering a longer period makes no difference to the price, guaranteeing a huge windfall profit to the PPP buyer. 30 year concession periods has been the norm here, and is bad enough. Why offer 50+?

  20. [ Given the extent of today’s police actions and the fact the alleged beheading plot is reported by the ABC I think the possibility this is all a stunt to prop up the Abbott government at somewhere around 0%. ]

    But it does give Abbott a nice excuse for being airlifted out of Arnhem land and not having to go back. And also avoiding any media discussion of the Freya Newman court case.

    Anyone else suspicious of the timing? Or is it just that so many things are collapsing around Abbott every day at the moment that whenever this broke it would have coincided with one or more political disasters. Asylum Seekers and the High Court? Ashby and Pyne?

  21. BW

    If it’s true, it certainly justifies them raising the terrorist alert level and the concerns about ISIS increasing the risk of domestic terrorism.

    If anything, military action against ISIS would increase our risk of being a target so it isn’t an argument for the bombing.

  22. davidwh,

    No doubt there is some element of self-promotion/marketing in the police actions today. One might argue whether the purpose is to make themselves look great, support a sympathetic administration or send a message to any potential terrorists.

    I doubt there is any conspiracy going on except that the police & administration interests are aligned and there might be some small amount of ‘you scratch my back’.

  23. Apparently the timing is entirely due to a telephone conversation interception in the last few days resulting in the need for immediate action.

    It’s a bit late acting after the event, given the nature of it, I would have thought.

  24. I believe this terror thing is real. I doubt however a helicopter, 15 police officers and loud hailers were required to arrest one man.

    That is what happened at one dwelling according to ABC news.

  25. Soc:
    [Quite apart from the duplicity… ]
    and where’s the case for selling it at all?

    It’s state equity, developed over decades from public investment; it earns a (quite handsome) return to the state; and it’s a fricking monopoly provider of an essential service!

  26. Dio

    [If anything, military action against ISIS would increase our risk of being a target so it isn’t an argument for the bombing.]

    Exactly so.

  27. Do we need a beheading of a civilian before we believe that something is wrong?

    Apparently that was the threat.

    A couple of days ago a financial organisation in Lakemba was closed down by police they apparently had some information to act on that.

  28. [GreensMPs
    Minister Macfarlane admitted there is a surplus of 9000 megawatts of energy in the system – equivalent of 9 coal fired power stations #NPC ]

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