BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The Greens have retained their Iraq-driven gain from last week on the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has stood almost perfectly still.

With the fortnightly cycles of Newspoll and Morgan coinciding, and other pollsters having gone a bit quiet lately, the polling calendar has fallen into a pattern of on weeks and off weeks. This one was an “off”, with only the regular Essential Research to relieve the monotony. The poll may have recorded a move to Labor on two-party preferred, but there wasn’t much behind it so far as the primary vote numbers were concerned. This makes for the dullest week ever on BludgerTrack, on which the biggest change is an increase in the Greens vote by all of 0.2%. That said, the Greens result is of genuine interest, in that the party has held on to its 1.4% lift from last week, leaving little room for doubt that the bipartisan consensus on Iraq has been to its advantage. This week’s seat projection is unchanged on last week, but there’s at least a little something happening under the surface here, with Labor up a seat in Western Australia and down one in Victoria. There were no new results this week for the leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

754 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  2. Not being Scottish (by birth or residency) I didn’t have a vote in the referendum. If I had I probably would have voted no just because Rupert Murdoch came out in support of the yes vote.

  5. [Karen Middleton‏@KarenMMiddleton·2m
    Scotland ‘Yes’ campaign has formally conceded defeat. Alex Salmond calls on all Scotland to accept ‘the democratic verdict of the people’.]

  6. briefly

    [Those economists at the IMF…what would they know!! Compared to the LNP cabinet, they are economic illiterates.]

    And Miss JulieB knows best.
    [@JulieBishopMP rejects UN request to strengthen Australian climate targets: http://ow.ly/BFBAt ]

    “She’s a good girl.” 😡

  7. 690
    Libertarian Unionist

    Permitting the use of RE certificates to either buy LGCs or to close down CF plant is an excellent idea.

    Really, in a quite tangible sense, they are the same sort of thing. They represent the transfer of consumption revenue in favour of RE and away from CF plant. Buying the closure of CF plant is the same thing as not buying CF electricity: it simply alters the timescale.

  9. Meanwhile RE: #ICAC:

    Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont 7m

    Ex general manger of Burwood council Pat Romano told his sentencing hearing that a politician tipped him off re #ICAC investigation into him

  14. LU

    An interesting summary.

    [Since demand is falling, we need to remove capacity from the system, and the same principle can be used to drive divestment in generators with high emissions.]

    I still don’t accept though that we need to pay FHC generators to decommission. Firstly, and most obviously, you could require the generators to capture all of their non-CO2 emissions and sequester these safely. You could also require all plants deemed to be within 15 years of their end of life to make suitable provision for site remediation on decommission, by vesting a proportion of their revenue in an escrow account held by a trust at arm’s length.

    You could then do both audits and financial “stress tests” on each of them were in fact trading insolvent, or marginal, and publish the findings. I daresay that would shake some excess capacity out of the system.

    Why should the public pay these filth merchants to do what they ought to have known, from at least 1991, they were going to have to do within the next couple of decades.

    I have been reading some interesting studies, that show that the energy generators in the US and Europe are beginning to factor in an internal “carbon price” to cover risk, so as not to become overexposed should state policy or some other factors prejudice their assets. In some cases, this internal price is well above $150 per tonne.

    The idea that we ought to be giving golden parachutes to these rent-seeking filth-spewing behemoths strikes me as fundamentally wrong. Let’s settle the burdens of malfeasance onto them and see how competitive they are then.

  15. [I probably would have voted no just because Rupert Murdoch came out in support of the yes vote]

    No, he didn’t. He flirted — like the sleazy guy peering out at you from the driver’s window of some tricked up car from across the street — but in the end, when Salmond averted his eyes, Murdoch drew back into the NO camp and dumped on the YES camp with his customary vigour.

    The only paper supporting YES was the Herald on Sunday, apparently.

  16. Liberation Unionist:

    Allow me to attempt to return serve…

    [Since demand for LCGs is legislated, the risk is that the number of LGCs created won’t meet the number required. What happens when inelastic demand hits a supply limit? In theory the price sky-rockets – and and this hurts consumers. In practice, supply should increase, but there’s a limit to how much capacity the power system needs, and as is commonly understood, we’ve already reached it, or even passed it with subsidised RE generation investment.]

    Yes – in this case the expected price of LGCs will rise, so that new renewable plant will pay more of its financing costs from sales of LGCs and therefore less from sales of electricity. This ought to drive down the bid price of renewable generators.

    [So now you could argue that the new RE generation financed with projected revenue from higher LGC prices will displace the coal fired generators. Unfortunately, there’s an additional complicating feature of the NEM to do with the dispatch process:

    The coal-fired plants have huge shut down and restart costs. As such, they bid negative prices into the NEM for their first few hundred MWh of output, right up against the lower bid limit of -$1000/MWh. Since this is way below the market price for LGCs, RE generators bid higher and the CF plants are always dispatched (gas-fired generators bid higher again)]

    Of course these first few hundred MWh bid at negative prices will be dispatched first. But the prices bid by the RE generators will put downward pressure on the CF generation above that level. There’s only so much generation you can bid at negative prices before you actually start to lose money, even if all you’re paying for is the coal to go into the furnace. In this scenario, the most expensive CF generators will have to eventually become unprofitable to run at all.

    [So what your left with is a situation where:
    1. There’s too much generation capacity and no incentive for additional RE plants;]

    I don’t believe so – the incentive for additional RE plant will just shift towards LGC production.

    [2. The generators you don’t want to dispatch because of their emissions are the ones that are dispatched first;]

    Agreed, but eventually the most expensive of those ought to be rendered unprofitable and so shut down.

    [ and
    3. An unnecessarily-high LCG price which is paid for by consumers.]

    This will be mostly offset by lower generation prices, except to the extent that cheap, paid-off coal plant generation has been displaced by RE still under finance.

    That’s what I reckon, anyway.

  18. Michael Pachi @michaelpachi

    @NewsTalk2UE-@7News ReachTel poll shows 43% of voters don’t believe federal seats should be reserved for indigenous Australians

    Not sure what to make of that but I do hope it is part of a federal ReachTEL that could have been taken last night. About due for one too.

  19. zoomster@686

    dtt

    I actually know some of the Cabinet members you’re talking about. One thing they say consistently is that factions don’t operate as strongly at the federal level, and even less so within Cabinet and caucus. Even the factional leaders play most of their games at State level.

    The fact that a PM from the Right was replaced by someone from the Left sort of reinforces that.

    Huh???

    Who were these unknown PMs? 😆

  20. Split on that ReachTEL was 37-43. They did state the sample size but I was briefly not paying attention, think it was large (know it’s a national poll).

  21. Thai PM says only unattractive women are safe if they wear a bikini in Thailand.

    [PM Prayuth Chan-O-Cha said of tourists: “They think our country is beautiful and is safe so they can do whatever they want, they can wear bikinis and walk everywhere.”

    He added: “Can they be safe in bikinis unless they are not beautiful?” ]

  22. Has the Napthine govt been watching an episode of Utopia?

    [There is still no date on when trains will run to Melbourne’s second airport, despite the Napthine government declaring the project had entered the process for planning approval.

    Avalon Airport has just five flights a day and the decision to continue the rail link has been criticised by some.

    Transport Minister Terry Mulder on Friday morning revealed a preferred route linking Avalon Airport with the existing train track between Melbourne and Geelong.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/preferred-route-revealed-for-avalon-airport-rail-link-but-no-start-date-in-sight-20140919-10j748.html

    But Mr Mulder conceded that with only five flights a day at the airport, the rail link was some time off, and he was unable to give an opening date.

  23. [The Bombers were stunned, even distraught, after that defeat. As of Friday, they were dealt another major blow and the ramifications could be even worse, with Hird’s future as coach now seriously under threat.
    The show-cause notices issued to 34 current and former Essendon players will stand, after Middleton ruled last year’s probe had been lawful and found no reason to even find middle ground.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/federal-court-decision-a-major-blow-for-bombers-james-hird-20140919-10j89u.html#ixzz3Djxcw6X2

  25. [For the AFL, it means the league may have to prepare for a “doomsday scenario” next season, that being the Bombers not having enough players to field a team because of possible anti-doping suspensions.]

    LOL

  26. victoria@722

    Has the Napthine govt been watching an episode of Utopia?

    —

    But Mr Mulder conceded that with only five flights a day at the airport, the rail link was some time off, and he was unable to give an opening date.

    Jon Faine asked him that directly. 😆

  28. [with Hird’s future as coach now seriously under threat.]

    Essendon would be mad to keep him on as coach, esp now. They need to wipe the slate clean. Clean meaning clean.

  30. [For the AFL, it means the league may have to prepare for a “doomsday scenario” next season, that being the Bombers not having enough players to field a team because of possible anti-doping suspensions.
    ]

    They shouldn’t be allowed to field a team. And how do they keep telling that lie that they are confident only good legal healthy things were given to the players when they have admitted they have no records and no idea what was administered.

    You would be taking a big gamble recruiting any of them under suspicion.

  32. victoria@727

    bemused

    Good on Faine!

    It made for hilarious radio.

    I really can’t see Avalon going anywhere other than for freight.

    Faine cited one compelling reason why. He knew someone who caught a flight from Avalon, but their return flight was cancelled and they got put on a flight to Tullamarine. Not exactly helpful when your car is at Avalon!

    Apparently this has happened to a lot of people and naturally they never want to go near Avalon again.

  34. victoria@733

    bemused

    I only managed to listen to the security expert this morning. Missed the rest of the program. Even missed the wrap today.

    As I said yesterday, I only have it on in the background and don’t catch everything.

    I don’t think you missed much with The Wrap today. The ALP person was way too conciliatory IMHO. If the other side doesn’t concede anything, that just shifts the centre of the debate their way and that is what happened.

  38. So it looks like the Highland count won’t be revealed until later seeing that it’s clear that it’s a No?

    Looking forward to tomorrow when New Zealand votes in the General Election.

  44. zoidlord@743

    @bemused/741

    My argument was not about IGA closure, my argument was that of natural monopoly.

    Your argument was:
    [ACCC allows buying up competition.
    Next they will allow Telstra buying up NBN Co.]
    The comparison is simply not valid as a quick scan of the article revealed:
    1. Only 3 stores were involved.
    2. The stores were going to close anyway.
    3. Coles was going to retain the existing employees.

    Please stop posting so much rubbish among the few good posts you put up. Go for quality, not quantity.

  45. @bemused/744

    Plenty of evidence to show that there has been more than one occusaion where Coles either swaps stores with IGA, or buys them outright.

    http://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Coles-IGA-complete-store-swap
    http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/coles-awaits-ok-on-whitfords-cockburn/story-e6frg2s3-1226391467189
    http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2013/07/just-how-dominant-are-woolworths-and-coles/
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/woolworths-to-take-over-hawker-iga-20130704-2pd8r.html

    I see it happening more after 2009.

    Meanwhile, Aldi has been busy expanding in both WA and South Australia.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/aldi-expansion-gives-coles-green-light-for-iga-buys-in-wa-20140918-10ilb4.html

    But this means we will eventually have a the big 4, just like in the Telco industry, which hasn’t benefit us, the consumers, tax payers or the employees.

  49. https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/fairfax-radio-dedicated-seats-for-indigenous-18september2014

    Full results for the ReachTEL on indigenous reserved seats. A left/right thing as I’d expect – but curiously large gender difference. Women 14% more likely to say yes and 20% less likely to say no.

    No one commissions a poll this large for a single question so I must assume it’s part of a full federal poll.

    I’d like to try reverse engineering the primaries or 2PP but it’s probably all too hard.

  50. A few times today I have thought of posting on the current terror issues but decided there was nothing that I could usefully add to the conversation.

    However two items in the Canberra Times this afternoon have prompted this post.

    1. A police officer has been injured by a man armed with an axe and a molotov cocktail at Brindabella Park. Police said the man had driven his four-wheel-drive vehicle into bollards at a building at Brindabella Park, near Canberra Airport about 3pm. They said there were no national security concerns regarding the incident, and the man – who was arrested at the scene – was being assessed as possibly suffering from mental health issues.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/police-officer-hurt-at-brindabella-park-by-man-armed-with-molotov-cocktail-and-axe-20140919-10jgge.html#ixzz3DkLfpS2Q

    To my mind, if you are attacked by someone with an axe and a molotov cocktail, it makes no difference whether the person is a jihadist or mentally deranged.

    2. Abbott keeps stirring up emotions with more “Team Australia” utterances.

    About 400 people attended a protest in Lakemba on Thursday night, expressing concern that the police raids were heavy-handed, and terrorised women and children. Mr Abbott said “only about 100 people” attended the rally, which was “much smaller than had been expected”.

    “Sure, they were noisy and they were emphatic, but they were utterly unrepresentative of Australian Muslims,” he said. “The vast majority of people in this country, regardless of their faith, are first-class Australians. They came here because they wanted to join our team. They wanted to join us, not to change us.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-dismisses-muslim-protest-over-counterterrorism-raids-20140919-10jc7r.html#ixzz3DkNML2Lr

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