BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The Greens have retained their Iraq-driven gain from last week on the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has stood almost perfectly still.

With the fortnightly cycles of Newspoll and Morgan coinciding, and other pollsters having gone a bit quiet lately, the polling calendar has fallen into a pattern of on weeks and off weeks. This one was an “off”, with only the regular Essential Research to relieve the monotony. The poll may have recorded a move to Labor on two-party preferred, but there wasn’t much behind it so far as the primary vote numbers were concerned. This makes for the dullest week ever on BludgerTrack, on which the biggest change is an increase in the Greens vote by all of 0.2%. That said, the Greens result is of genuine interest, in that the party has held on to its 1.4% lift from last week, leaving little room for doubt that the bipartisan consensus on Iraq has been to its advantage. This week’s seat projection is unchanged on last week, but there’s at least a little something happening under the surface here, with Labor up a seat in Western Australia and down one in Victoria. There were no new results this week for the leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

754 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. William

    [on which the biggest change is an increase in the Greens vote by all of 0.2%. That said, the Greens result is of genuine interest, in that the party has held on to its 1.4% lift from last week, leaving little room for doubt that the bipartisan consensus on Iraq has been to its advantage.]

    On solid ground here I’d say.

  2. For all those who have me down as some kind of sexist monster…

    If Leigh Sales was to stick to having babies – a fine, and admirable pursuit, as well as a pleasurable one – she could get herself written up in Who Weekly, and (most importantly) would be on the telly less.

    That’s the point.

    A notable part of her recent history has been long absences from the anchor desk at 7.30 while on maternity leave and the consequent ratings rises while she has been away.

    So I guess, seeing as she CAN have babies, has had a couple or three, and the ratings improve, that’s a fair comment.

  3. The Australian attacks Board member Fiona Stanley who is standing up for the ABC.

    [HAVING extracted $10 million extra from the former Labor government to establish (among other things) a fact-checking unit, the ABC board might want to use it. Writing in the Fairfax press yesterday, ABC board member Fiona Stanley stridently defended the accuracy of the public broadcaster but her piece contained errors and wildly inaccurate claims. If this is considered an appropriate standard at the pinnacle of the organisation, it is little wonder Aunty’s news and current affairs programs so often fall short.

    In order to buttress her case against efficiencies and spending cuts at the corporation, Professor Stanley claimed it had a budget last year of $825.7 million. Yet, as has often been reported, the ABC receives annual taxpayer funding of more than $1 billion. According to the Department of Communications website the allocation last year was $1.05bn. The figures differ by 21 per cent, or $179.3m.

    When your case rests on fairness and accuracy such trifles matter. Even more egregiously, Professor Stanley made hysterical claims that the ABC is subjected to “harassment” by The Australian, which she claims is running a “vicious” campaign that is damaging the broadcaster and the nation. She accused this newspaper of demanding the ABC be privatised. She could not be more wrong. We have never called for that. As readers will know, we provide extensive coverage of the national broadcaster, analysing its programs and personnel, triumphs and misdeeds, precisely because we believe it is a crucial institution. We expect it to live up to its charter obligations to provide news and current affairs that is fair, accurate and pluralistic. We often report cases where it fails and now we see a similar failing at board level.

    Professor Stanley seems to have made her mistake by reading the views of James Paterson of the Institute of Public Affairs on our opinion page. Mr Paterson and other IPA staff often share their views and analysis in appearances on ABC programs, yet we take it Professor Stanley doesn’t contend that the ABC is calling for its own privatisation. We are entitled to expect more accuracy in important public debates. We are entitled to expect better from the ABC.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/tablet-t3/tablet-t3/is-abc-calling-for-its-own-sale/story-fnmc7fzj-1227062033072?sv=4a66470a4d3180d21ba382e11ff889d4

  4. Morning all. Good luck Scotland – make your own decision, about making your own decisions.

    Obama is correct, that the UK has been a strong, stable force for good. Yet I still do not see why he and so many other world leaders have poked their nose into what should be an intenal issue. This includes Abbott and now Shorten too.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/bill-shorten-scottish-independence-world-has-enough-borders-australia

  5. Lizie

    In that case the Australian must be quite aghast at most of what Hockey and Abbott say – they use wrong figures all the time, as Factcheck has shown!

  6. This domestic Adelaide issue is a classic case of botched implementation killing a good idea. The proposed Adelaide parking levy looks likely to fail in the upper house on minor party and independent objections.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-17/adelaide-carpark-tax-looks-destined-to-fail/5751538

    Most Australian capitals have such levies and the SA government badly needs the revenue. Adelaide City has more car parks than Sydney(!) and they pay no tax and low rates, while traffic capacity of most of the roads across the parklands into town is now reached in the morning peak. So this levy made sense. Yet it was introduced in a budget with minimal public debate and no attempt to build consensus. Another needed reform butchered.

    Why are so many of our current generation of “leaders” incapable of selling anything other than short term populism?

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    There are massive anti-terror raids taking place over NSW and Queensland. Here’s the ABC live blog.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-18/live-blog3a-anti-terrorism-raids-in-sydney-and-brisbane/5752074
    All it needs now is for Alan Jones and his scabby mates to foment things even more!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-church-targeted-by-islamic-state-death-threats-20140918-10ige1.html
    Should we be asking who ISIL are?
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/article-display/who-are-isil,6906
    Airports – particularly Sydney – are ripoff merchants.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-government-digs-in-its-heels-on-airport-travel-fares-20140917-10husb.html
    Syphilis is making a puzzling come back.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/venereal-disease-mystery-as-syphilis-hits-record-high-20140917-10iaar.html
    Paul Sheehan says that Brandis’ new terror laws will allow ASIO to conduct torture.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-brandis-new-antiterror-law-allows-asio-to-torture-20140917-10i9hv.html
    What in the heck!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/haircut-costs-student-marks-in-chemistry-exam-20140917-10icva.html
    Medecins Sans Frontiers tell Abbott it’s boots on the ground that are needed to fight ebola, not money.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/aid-organisation-to-refuse-ebola-cash-from-australia-20140917-10ifd0.html
    “Team Australia” and nationalism.
    https://theconversation.com/team-australia-a-nationalism-framed-in-terms-of-external-threats-31630
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/09/16/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-31-2/

  8. Section 2 . . .

    Independent Australia with the latest on “Ashbygate”.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wyatt-roys-ashbygate-revelations-send-christopher-into-a-world-of-pyne,6905
    Abbott plays with words just like he plays with lives.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-special-forces-in-iraq-to-gather-intelligence-direct-air-strikes-20140917-10i57e.html
    Peter Costello is still a bit of a bighead.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/former-treasurer-peter-costello-criticises-governments-debt-levy-20140917-10ic3o.html
    The hidden underclass – how underemployment is hidden.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/the-hidden-underclass-how-australian-underemployment-is-concealed
    Michelle Grattan – Splits over indigenous referendum benefit those who want it to fail.
    https://theconversation.com/arguments-run-both-ways-on-timing-of-indigenous-referendum-31797
    Some governance problems for Victoria’s Water Minister.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/leaked-letters-reveal-water-minister-peter-walshs-grip-on-abolished-agency-20140917-10ibhs.html
    Greg Jericho on Hockey’s “lazy analysis”
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/sep/17/hockeys-lazy-analysis-may-be-the-suggestion-house-prices-wont-fall
    What happens if Scotland votes “No”?
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/scottish-independence-what-happens-if-the-vote-is-no-20140917-10hzq1.html
    Why the Scotland vote has Brussels spooked – regardless of whichever way it goes.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/9/18/europe/why-scotlands-vote-has-brussels-spooked
    Things that cold void your insurance cover.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2014/09/16/five-insurance-pitfalls-pays-avoid/

  9. Section 3 . . .

    If Abbott used the same ranking method for NAPLAN as he does for rating his ministers our education problems would seem to vanish overnight.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-gives-top-marks-to-ministers-saying-all-deserve-as-or-a-pluses-20140917-10i4jd.html
    Look at the comments underneath this article on Abbott’s ministerial gradings!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/17/tony-abbott-assures-ministers-annual-review
    Elizabeth Farrelly – War on trees: Time to kill old attitudes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/war-on-trees-time-to-kill-old-attitudes-20140917-10hzqv.html
    G20 – Time to halt the flow of illicit money. It’s time for real and effective action.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/g20-time-to-halt-the-flow-of-illicit-money-20140917-10hzw3.html
    Changes to Sydney Council voting rules are an assault on democracy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/double-votes-for-business-in-city-of-sydney-an-assault-on-democracy-20140917-10i7k6.html
    Hoe innumeracy aids fearmongers. And doesn’t Abbott know it! But there is no excuse for the lazy journalism that aids and abets it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/whos-counting-how-innumeracy-aids-fearmongers-20140917-10ha7o.html
    The pressure is building on Abbott and his desire to cut the RET. He was too smart by half in appointing that Luddite nonce Warburton to the job.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/pressure-builds-on-abbott-government-to-relent-on-renewable-energy-cuts-20140917-10hy4e.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/17/renewable-energy-target-coalition-and-labor-no-closer-to-compromise
    This tells us all we need to know about the ideology driving this government of ours.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/union-fears-job-losses-as-telstra-takes-over-medicare-centrelink-call-centres-20140917-10i5ku.html

  10. Section 4 . . .

    Alan Moir shows us just how empty Abbott’s words are.

    Beautiful work from David Pope.

    David Rowe with Abbott’s mission creep.

  11. Abbott gives all his ministers an A or A+?? Now that is what I call grade inflation! For some like Hockey it will be the first time in their lives they will have seen an “A”. What grade will Abbott give Hockey if he actually manages to get a budget passed? Then again, if this is a good performance, I shudder to think what a bad one looks like.

  12. Morning bludgers

    What i have gleaned so far re the terror raids, is that it relates to millions of dollars being sent from here to fight in Syria. The people here are connected to the person who went over to fight and his young son photographed with the head

  13. Victoria

    If so that is a clear breach of Aussie law and should be pursued. I would much rather we focused on that sort of normal police work than send troops.

  14. Meanwhile in the state of vic

    [Leaked confidential documents reveal Water Minister Peter Walsh’s tight grip over the state’s scandal-plagued water agency – in stark contrast to his public statements.

    Fairfax Media has obtained two highly confidential letters signed by Mr Walsh, the contents of which have never been published, which outline the power and autonomy he gave the Office of Living Victoria before it ran out of control.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/leaked-letters-reveal-water-minister-peter-walshs-grip-on-abolished-agency-20140917-10ibhs.html

  15. Socrates
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2014 at 7:56 am | PERMALINK
    Victoria

    [If so that is a clear breach of Aussie law and should be pursued. I would much rather we focused on that sort of normal police work than send troops.]

    As i have said previously, our intelligence services have been actively stopping terrorist activities throughout the duration. Only now, the tories are putting the issue front and centre of our everyday lives. This is their modus operandi and it shits me to no end

  16. [ Peter Costello is still a bit of a bighead.]

    abbott as PM has a least one thing ‘going’ for it.

    Every day costello sees abbott in the top job must piss costello off to his core.

    Silver lining….

  17. Bushfire Bill:

    [For all those who have me down as some kind of sexist monster…

    If Leigh Sales was to stick to having babies – a fine, and admirable pursuit, as well as a pleasurable one – she could get herself written up in Who Weekly, and (most importantly) would be on the telly less.]

    It’s not about you being a “sexist monster”, don’t be melodramatic. You can certainly make a sexist remark without intending to.

    For what it’s worth, as far as I can tell you were just going for a pithy comment. That doesn’t change the fact that “stick to having babies” is a highly gendered put-down (you wouldn’t see the same being used against a male, no matter how much paternity leave they’d recently taken) and as such is sexist.

  18. As I lamented on the other thread, the Scottish independence debate has not canvassed all the issues. Forget freedom or financial stability – what about Eurovision? As an independent nation Scotland will get:
    – its own entry – play those bagpipes loud, SBS.
    – a chance to host the final in Edinburgh or Glasgow
    – the ability to bloc vote with the other British Isles countries and finally break the dominance of the Balkans and Scandinavia.

    C’mon Scotland – go independent for Eurovision! The english will never permit a bagpipe band to represent them.

  19. Morning all.

    Brilliant stuff from Rowe – thanks BK. And always so much to see. Check out the yellow PUP gunk coating Abbott’s fingers!

  20. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-16/asian-futures-jump-on-stimulus-report-dollar-holds-drop.html

    [Treasuries fell while the dollar gained as the Federal Reserve raised estimates for interest rates at the end of next year even as it pledged to keep rates low for a “considerable time.” U.S. stocks pared earlier gains.

    The rate on 10-year Treasury notes rose three basis points to 2.62 percent, a two-month high. Five-year yields rose to a one-year high. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.7 percent to the highest in 14 months. Oil declined with gold. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) added 0.1 percent 4 p.m. in New York, trimming an advance of as much as 0.6 percent that pushed the gauge to an all-time high on a closing basis

    The Fed tapered monthly bond buying by $10 billion for a seventh time, staying on course to end the program in October. Policy makers said the economy is expanding at a moderate pace and inflation is below its goal, while maintaining a commitment to keep interest rates near zero. Officials raised their median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2015 by 25 basis points. The rate will be at 3.75 percent at the end of 2017, the Fed said today for the first time]

    The AUD dropped to USD0.895….big step

  21. The Liberals just can’t get away from using dog whistling scare mongering tactics, even if those tactics are pitched at voters in a whole other country!

    [Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has warned that Britain could be weakened in the global battle against terrorism if Scottish voters support today’s independence vote.]

  22. Scott Morrison on AM Radio this morning said that all that was necessary to stop the people smugglers was to turn boats around safely.

    Which means, of course, that there is now no justification whatsoever for Manus and Nauru.

  23. Labor says Prime Minister Tony Abbott must front parliament if Australia’s deployment to Iraq lasts more than a few weeks.

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott will on Thursday farewell RAAF members bound for the Middle East as part of Australia’s 600-strong force being sent to fight Islamic State extremists.

    The government has yet to commit to any combat role in Iraq, with a decision to be made in coming weeks, but Mr Abbott says any such mission will be limited to air strikes and providing training and advice to Iraqi and Kurdish forces.

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-wants-pm-to-front-parliament-on-iraq-20140918-3fzrl.html

  24. leon

    [
    Major outbreak of terror in Sydney this morning. Police involved]
    2GB doing their bit , Hadley doing terrorists under our beds to the max.

  25. This article goes very close to revealing the full hand/agenda of the Murdoch media – how dare the ABC compete with sky!

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/broadcast/abc-to-rob-regions-and-lifestyle-to-pay-for-news-24/story-fna045gd-1227062020872#

    for Murdoch and his far right cabal it is all about power and propaganda promoting a far economic right ideology. It is not so much about market competition, as it is about silencing the voices of anybody who might not support this ideology. The Australian makes multi million dollar losses every year, but is kept as a way to influence policy and other media.

    The Australia Network and destruction of the NBN have already been delivered to Murdoch by abbott to repay his unswerving support. The ABC is next.

    A royal commission into political bias, ownership and lack of diversity in the media would be a delight to see. I think Chris Mitchell would make Pell look humble and reasonable in comparison. The right might support such an RC if it was started to look at the ABC, but then looked more broadly. If abbott wrote the terms of reference, I am sure it would be constrained to ABC, Fairfax and the Guardian.

    thanks goodness for the ABC and the rise of a diversity of credible on-line journalism. Now if we could only get the msm/TV hacks and editors to read more broadly online and not simply report what the Australian or Fairfax has on their front pages. the Guardian and Crikey would be a good start.

  26. Good Morning.

    @AlexGreenwich: Latest @ReachTEL poll on #nswpol Sydney seat: Greenwich 41%, Libs 26%, Greens 13%, ALP 11%. Clear swing away from Liberals on last elections

  27. “@GMegalogenis: Scott Morrison seems to be saying; ‘You wanna war leader, look at me.”
    Can’t work out if the News Ltd tabloids are backing, or mocking him.”

  28. Richard Chirgwin retweeted
    Jess Hill ‏@jessradio 5m

    1/2 Courier Mail photoshops Scott Morrison into Bush’s 2003 ‘Mission Accomplished’ speech.. Are they having a go?

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